For A-Plus Writer Only

Book Reference

Thinking

Kirby, G., & Goodpaster, J. (2007). Thinking (4th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.

. : ·.~::~ . . . . . . ~.~~, " . ; • t:" Jlr • - "• ~ . . . . ".

- -- - -----------

THINKING FOURTH EDITION

GARY R. KIRBY JEFFERY R. GOODPASTER

PROBLEM SOLVING

The solution of problems is the most characteristic and peculiar sort of

volunfaty thinkiti!J.

-WILLIAM JAMES, THE PRINCIPLES OF PSYCHOLOGY, CH. XIV

Impasse. The road is blocked. The job isn't working. The relationship is drifting apart. We have a problem that needs solving. Problem solving is applying critical thinking to achieve the goals and personal harmony that are important in our personal and professional lives. From day to day we face personal problems such as how to quit smoking, reduce stress, or escape financial hardship; we confront material problems like trying to figure out why our car won't start; we encounter interpersonal problems, as when our loved ones complain that we don't love them or that we don't spend enough time with them; and we struggle with problems involving values and beliefs, like wondering if God really exists, if prostitution is really wrong, or if there is life after death.

Some of these problems can be solved, if at all, primarily through thinking, such as problems with values or attempts to figure out why evil exists in a world created by God. Other problems are best approached through thinking ending in action. In this chapter we focus on the latter, such as meeting our goal to graduate in four years, paying the bills on time, taking care of children while in college, getting a commitment to marry from our beloved, meeting financial

287

288 CHAPTER 12 • Problem Solving

goals in business, keeping morale high in the workplace, or meeting the needs of both employees and managers who have different interests and objectives.

In this chapter we attack problems in five steps: (1) We define the problem; (2) we remove barriers; (3) we generate possible solutions through the strategies of information gathering, creative thinking and letting the problem rest; ( 4) we select a solution through preliminary evaluation, evaluating pros and cons, sub- goal analysis, trial and error, working backward, and following practical problem- solving tips; and (5) we evaluate and monitor the solution.

Hopefully we will emerge with a greater ability to solve some of the problems in our lives that would otherwise decrease our joy in living or hinder our occupa- tional success. As we wrestle with these problems, we may find comfort in Carl Jung's words: "The meaning and purpose of a problem seem to lie not in its so- lution but in our working at it incessantly" (Jung, 1969b, p. 394).

We cannot solve a problem unless we define it well. If our car doesn't start, we wouldn't want to define the problem as "Life is one frustration after another." Even something like "My car doesn't work right," although more precise, is still an ill-defined problem. Defining the problem carefully means being as precise and as specific as possible. We could state, "My car doesn't start," or better, "My car doesn't start in the morning," or better yet, "My car doesn't start on wet morn- ings." This more specific definition enables us to identify the possible causes of the malfunctioning, and it shortens our path to the solution of the problem.

Consider a person who is suffering a lot of stress, which is making her life quite miserable. Her vague statement of the problem might be "Life stresses me out." If life itself stresses her out, then the solutions are limited and suicide might seem to be a reasonable option . On the other hand, a closer examination might show that on weekends life is pretty good. That might mean her problem lies at work or at school. Because she finds that work gives her a sense of accom- plishment and camaraderie, she might narrow the problem to school. She reflects for a moment and realizes that she does enjoy some of her classes, such as psychology and American literature, but that her speech class fills her with an anxiety that lasts most of the week. The problem is now coming into focus: her enormous fear of giving speeches every week! Now this fai rly well-defined prob- lem can be addressed in a variety of ways. In sum, defining the problem as specifically as possible helps us focus on appropriate solutions.

Problems concerning human relations are often intricate and difficult to define. Suppose two people in different departments are not getting along very well. Management might define the problem as "Those departments can't stand each other." However, it may be that the employees are frustrated because the

Defining the Problem 289

goals of one department are interfering with the goals of the other. One depart- ment, for example, may focus on production and the other on quality. In this case, a better formulation of the problem would state that one department's goal of quantity is interfering with the other's goal of quality. Without this precise definition, the manager might get the two departments together on the same company haseoal1 team to improve camaraderie or change the office design so that members of the different departments are integrated. With these solutions, though well-intentioned, the problem would likely remain. In short, formulating the problem precisely and carefully is worth the time it takes; it is rewarded by a more rapid solution to the problem and might even yield an obvious solution.

Forming More Precise Definitions

Clea r and precise definit ions of problems are an important part of prob- lem solving. They also aid in the commun ication of t he problem to others. This exe rcise gives you practice in formu lating more precise statements. In the exercise below, vague statements of problems are given in coll oqu ial terms. Using your imag ination, reformu late each problem more precisely. To help yo u come up with real istic statements, consider your own history with these problems or those of others you know.

1. Vague statement: My wife hates me. More precise statement: My wife disli kes my criticism of her hair.

2. Vague statement: We never have enough money. More precise statement: ______________ _

3. Vague statement: I hate my job. More precise statement: ______________ _

4. Vague statement. My boss is hard to work for. More precise statement: ______________ _

5. Vague statement: School is too hard. More precise statement: ______________ _

6. Vag ue statement: I don 't like my house. More precise statement: ______________ _

7. Vague statement: Men! More precise statement: ______________ _

8. Vague statement: The faucet isn't working ri ght. More precise statement: ______________ _

9. Vague statement: Th is book is hard to read. More precise statement: ______________ _

10. Vague statement: My computer isn't working rig ht. More precise statement.,·_---------------

290 CHAPTER 12 • Problem Solving

Discovering Causes

By now it is apparent that part of defining and understanding the problem is to look for the cause of the problem. For instance, a writer experiencing frustration might find that her frustration comes from an inability to concentrate, which in turn stems from her personal relationship problems. This discovery of the root cause allows her to try to work out her relationship problem and thereby regain her ability to focus on her writing.

We can discover the causes of our problems by noticing the relationships among details. For example, if we notice that our concentration is impaired only when our children are playing in the house, we can be fairly confident that our children distract us. By noticing that whenever we feel time pressure we make mistakes, we can identify time pressure as the cause of our poor job performance. By noticing that our car starts well except on rainy days, we identify dampness to be a partial cause of the problem. And when we notice that low staff morale corresponds to an office restructuring, we might suspect restructuring to be the cause of the problem. In his classic book Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, Robert Pirsig (1974) describes this kind of observation:

If the cycle goes over a bump and the engine misfires, and then goes over another bump and the engine misfires, and then goes over another bump and the engine misfires, and then goes over a long smooth stretch of road and there is no misfiring, and then goes over a fourth bump and the engine misfires again, one can logically conclude that the misfiring is caused by the bumps (p. 107).

In short, when variables continually coincide with each other, we can gain confidence that a cause-and-effect relationship is at work. (See Chapter 10 for more discussion on. deriving cause and effect from correlation, and Chapter 9 for the different kinds of causation.)

However, just as it is easier to spot a deer on the run than one standing still, it is usually easier to identify a cause-and-effect relationship when the causes of our problems come and go than when they are fixed. Our relation- ship problems, for example, may stem from a persistent negative attitude about people in general, or a basement water seepage problem may be caused by a permanent clay soil condition. Under these conditions discovering the cause might take a keener eye, more objectivity, or greater knowledge than we may have; an opinion from friends, advice from professionals, or a, book on the topic can be helpful.

Sometimes looking for correlating variables is a tedious task that can take years of observation before a cause-and-effect relationship is discovered. Fortu- nately, many of life's problems are not nearly as difficult to decipher as are cold fusion and quantum mechanics.

Removing Barriers 291

Problems Without a Cause

Some problems calling for answers do not have a cause. For instance, members of a product-marketing committee gridlocked over a marketing strategy for a new product do not look for causes but for creative ideas to sell their product. Another ·example. of a causeless problem is the classic nine-dot problem. The challenge is to connect all nine dots with only four straight lines without the pencil leaving the paper. A search for causes will not help you.

• • • • • • • • •

For these and other problems for which solutions are not obvious when the causes are discovered, we need to generate ideas to find the solution that we desire.

Perhaps the first step in finding solutions is to examine two thinking barriers that inhibit our full problem-solving potential.

The Myth of Perfection

One barrier that clearly stands in the way of problem solving is the irrational wish for a perfect solution and the related belief that one best solution · exists. In our world, perfection is generally a myth. There are ideas of perfect machines, but none exist, and there are ideas of perfect humans, although no one has yet become one. For many problems, many solutions will work, each with their own advan- tages and disadvantages, but rarely will one of them be perfect. If we search for the perfect solution, we waste time and energy and we may miss good solutions.

Often our striving for perfection is rooted in our fear of being unloved or unaccepted by others. We believe that if our solutions are less than perfect, then we are less than perfect. We believe that anything short of perfection might lead us to suffer ridicule, humiliation, and loss of self-esteem. Usually it is not others that expect perfection from us-it is ourselves. We need to remind ourselves that it is admirable enough to do the best we can with the situation and talents we are given, and that it is irrational to continually insist on perfection.

THINK ABOUT IT: In what areas do you try to be perfect? Is your goal of perfection realistic? If not, practice accepting the less than perfect results.

292 CHAPTER 12 • Problem Solving

The Myth of Genius

Everyone has problem-solving ability. Problem solving requires creativity, which correlates only modestly with intelligence (Barron and Harrington, 1981). Thus, one does not have to be Immanuel Kant or Albert Einstein to be a good problem solver. That does not mean that we are all qualified to solve advanced problems in philosophy and science, however, for problem solving also requires knowledge; without knowledge of a discipline we cannot solve problems in that area. Fortunately, most of our problems involve knowledge that is readily obtainable and understandable by most persons. In short, what is generally lacking is not the intellectual ability to solve but the self-confidence to solve.

Once we let go of our barriers, we can begin to generate solutions by gathering information, thinking creatively, and letting the problem rest for awhile.

Gathering Information

Trying to solve a problem without information is like trying to drive a car without a steering wheel. Consider a college student faced with a scheduling problem and in a dilemma about what courses to take next semester. If she chooses her courses without adequate information about the college's policies and course scheduling, she may never see graduation. However, if she ac- quires information that answers the following questions, she will likely find a way to graduate on time: (1) What courses are required for the major? (2) Do those courses require a prerequisite? (3) Which of those courses are offered only once a year or every other year? ( 4) How many upper-level courses are required? (5) How many credits are transferable from my other college? (6) What courses are offered during the summer session? (7) Is independent study an option to meet a degree requirement when a scheduling conflict occurs? (8) Are there any conditions under which course substitutions are allowed? (9) What general requirements must still be completed? And so on. Without gathering this information, she may not be able to solve her sched- uling problem adequately.

With inadequate information, the solutions are weak. PConsider the prob- lem of controlling criminal behavior in the United States, which has one of the highest rates of violent crime in the world. Some common proposals to combat violent crime in America are to increase the size of the police force, develop stiffer prison sentences for offenders, increase the use of capital pun- ishment for murderers, and increase the role of religion in our lives. Most of

Generating Solutions 293

these solutions are not supported by social science research. For example, compared with other countries, the sentencing policies of the United States are actually stricter than many countries whose crime rate is a fraction of what it is in the United States. Capital punishment does not seem to make an appreciable differe.nce on crime (Bailey, 1990; Newbold, 1990). And as far as religion goes, the percentage of people in the United States who attend church and believe in God is already one of the highest in the world-yet, so is our murder rate!

The research suggests instead that we might be better off addressing the variables that do correlate with increased violent behavior, such as great eco- nomic inequality among the different social classes, high unemployment, lack of attachment to significant others, parental abuse, and television violence. As we pointed out in Chapter 10, "Scientific Thinking," a correlation does not neces- sarily mean a causal relationship exists between the variables, but it is certainly a good place to start.

THINK ABOUT IT: Is there a problem that you, your company, or the U.S. government is trying to solve without adequate information? What information seems to be missing?

Identifying the Components

The more information we can collect, the better we are able to solve the prob- lem. We can gain comprehensive information by identifYing each known com- ponent of the problem and then obtaining information about each one. The components of any problem are the persons and objects involved in the prob- lem, as well as the problem goal itself. If Green College, for example, has a declining enrollment, the components are the faculty, the administration, the community, the students, the school buildings, the programs, and the goal of in- creased enrollment. How knowledgeable, enthusiastic, and caring is the faculty? How competent, effective, and supportive is the administration? What is the college's image in the community? Who are Green College students? Why do students choose to attend or not attend Green College? How old are they? Where do they live? What social class are they from? Are the school buildings clean, attractive, in a safe neighborhood, and serviced with public transporta- tion? Finally, Green College must look at the goal itself. Is increasing enrollment a realistic goal given the demographics? Are there other goals that might be more important or realistic?

294 CHAPTER 12 • Problem Solving

THINK ABOUT IT: Sometimes we create our own problems. Our standards of performance are unrealistic, the time line we arbitrarily set is too short, the activities we engage in are too many. Which of these could you change to reduce your life's problems?

THINKING ~f~-ii(,~ I:J~f)Jl:~ ~~~~:;r;;~tcJr~ --~\--'~4i: .~i\iJti:Jt~~'{f l ~w,;:·;;,·,;~-J']'t-!'"';"'.'·:-a:-t\ll"hl>!\'0! :liE ·~- ~r "'ft"-' -·· ~Z-':'}!~1:@,1"';;.

~~),{J(;;~:: ~i ~~~.:~ g;_1m1r:-J!~~. !!s~ifiii!"~tl.~~~ii~gy~~

Identifying Problem Components

Identify the components in each of the following problems. What ques- tions would you ask about each component?

1. The president of the alumni association at the local un iversity is having difficulty getting enough financial support from alumni to meet the university's contribution goals this year.

2. The local community needs a highway bypass to decrease traffic through its city center, but the proposed bypass route takes it through a residential area of a suburb. The threat of increased congestion, pol- lution, and noise has the suburbanites in an uproar.

3. A college student's goal of graduating in May is being thwarted by class-scheduling problems. Her last two required courses are offered at the same time!

4. Mark and his wife Elizabeth both work to maintain the standard of living they desire, but they are unable to adequately meet the demands of work and domestic life. Their job demands do not leave enough t ime for cleaning and maintaining their home.

5. A secretary cannot get her new computer to send her document to her printer. The document must be printed for an important business meet- ing beginning in fifteen minutes!

Sources of Information

When the problem concerns human relations, information can be requested of the other person or persons involved. What is their understanding and perception of the problem? What do they need and want? How do they think it should be solved? Simply talking with those involved often helps us to understand better. However, many married couples, parents and children, managers and employees are often un- comfortable with direct communication. For them, counseling or some other form of mediation is an option. Counselors spend their lives primarily aiding people in the communication of their feelings, needs, and desires in order to solve their problems.

Generating Solutions 295

Experts are a prime source of information. We might communicate with a psychologist about discipline problems with children, an accountant about a financial crisis, an auto mechanic about our car problems, or an attorney about our legal problems. One word of caution: The experts must be objective. A stockbroker .for example, may push high-commission .stocks and bonds instead of low-commission ones. One particularly valuable expert (and not particularly biased) is the local reference librarian, who can lead us to data such as the changing demographics in a small town, books on personal finance , neighborhood crime statistics, changing property values, effective child-raising techniques, and manuals for repairing and building almost anything.

The last important source of information is ourselves. We all have a wealth of experience to bring to bear on many problem areas in our lives. Perhaps we live with the person involved in our problem and know that person better than anyone else, perhaps we can find similarities between our current and our past problems, perhaps we can use our ability to empathize with others to more fully understand even a novel interpersonal problem, or perhaps we can use knowl- edge acquired through years of education to understand the problem more completely.

Most problems involving people require some kind of communication with others. Such communication can help define the problem, identify causes of the problem, or help generate solutions. But communication will not be effective if we do not provide the right communication climate . Below are some tips that will improve the chances of productive commu- nication with others.

1. Avoid loaded words. Some words inhibit people's true expression of their feelings by stirring up emotions and defensiveness or by setting a person up for rejection. Words like "stupid," "childish," "idiot," and so on should be avoided whenever possible. Instead of saying, "What do you think of that stupid slogan the marketing department came up with?" try, "What do you think of the marketing depart- ment's new slogan?" If someone actually likes the new slogan, the adjective "stupid" will make the person feel that he will be rejected or laughed at if he expresses his true opinion. In this way loaded words inhibit the expression of true feelings and do not further com- munication.

(continued)

296 CHAPTER 12 • Problem Solving

CREATING A HEALTHY COMMUNICATION CLIMATE (Continued)

2. Avoid status barriers. People are easily intimidated by signs of status and have a more difficult time expressing their true opinions when they feel less than equal to the person they are talking to. If we are sit- ting in a large chair at a large desk in a large room, with numerous diplomas decorating the walls, the person we are talking to might feel intimidated . It is better to come out from behind the desk and offer the person a seat in a chair that is equal in height to our own. It is also important to avoid a judgmental or superior attitude that sometimes accompanies a high-status position.

3. Avoid defensiveness and anger; be a safe person. No one is correct all the time, including ourselves. We need to remind ourselves that we are still worthwhile persons when we make mistakes. If we can accept this, we can listen to the criticism of others without turning the com- munication into a hostile win-or-lose situation. If we can drop our defensive posture, we will also listen better, hearing what is being said instead of rehearsing our defense. Moreover, if we are known to turn every attempt at constructive criticism into an angry situation, others will stop talking to us about important matters.

4. Be open-minded. If we convey an attitude of intolerance for others' ideas before we even hear them, there is a good chance we never will hear them. We must be willing to let go of our tenacious grasp on our own ideas, for no matter how certain we are that we have the rig ht insight or the correct solution to a problem, we may be wholly wrong. A rigid attitude only discourages honest commu- nication.

5. Rephrase communication. In order to make sure that we understand what others are saying to us, it is important to restate their position back to them in our own words. This reassures them that we are listening and gives them an opportunity to correct us if we have mis- understood them.

. .

THINK ABOUT IT: Can you think of any communication that you have experienced recently in which one or more of these suggestions were ignored? What was the effect on the communication?

Generating Solutions 297

Creative Thinking

At least some of the problems of life are novel and must therefore have novel solutions. -ABRAHAM MASLOW, MOTIVATION AND PERSONALITY

After we have gathered information and identified components, if a solution is not apparent, we can use methods of creative thinking to help us find solutions. In thinking creatively we must strive to transcend our usual ways of seeing. We should not limit ourselves to seeing what we are supposed to see or thinking about things as we were taught to think about them. We must learn to see and think without the usual assumptions, stereotypes, or expectations, much as a painter does when looking at a penny lying on the floor, seeing it as oval instead of round, or as brown with a white sheen instead of copper. We must think like a da Vinci, a Copernicus, an Einstein-people who were not afraid to leave the standard path through the thinking woods in their search for new horizons.

To think creatively we must transcend the world of dos and don'ts and enter the world of the impossible, the frivolous, and the absurd. We must see things not for what they are or for what they were meant to be, but for what we can imagine them to be. This world of the creative is in each of us. We need only watch a young child play to realize the creativity that was once present in all of us. If we unleash this creativity through the process of brainstorming, suspending evaluation of our ideas until our creative ideas are exhausted, we will generate more solutions.

Let It Rest

When solutions to problems are not forthcoming according to our timetable, be patient. Often problems are not solved immediately. Sometimes we have to let go of them for awhile. Anecdotal and scientific evidence suggests that problems can sometimes work themselves out while we are not paying attention to them, as when we turn our attention to other matters, or while we are sleeping. This can lead to an instant recognition of the solution, called insight or the "Aha!" experi- ence; other times it makes it easier to solve the problem when we go at it full throttle again. In the third century B.C.E., the Greek mathematician and inventor Archimedes may have had the ultimate '~a!" experience. He had been given a vexing problem by his King: He had to determine if the gold in the King's crown was solid gold or if it was underlayed with silver-and he could not damage the crown. It wasn't until he took a public bath that the answer occurred to him in a flash of insight. In this case, the bath provided an appropriate key, for the solu- tion to the problem pertained to the displacement of water and the weight of gold versus silver. If we can believe the first century Greek architect Vitruvius, the source of this story, Archimedes was so excited about his insight experience that he shouted "Eureka" (Greek for "I have found it!") and ran home naked!

298 CHAPTER 12 a Problem Solving

We can presume Archimedes was awake while taking his bath, but evidence exists that the mind can also help us work on a problem while we are sleeping, either by making it easier to solve a problem the next day (Wagner et al., 2004), or by giving us the key to a solution in our dreams, as in the case ofMendeleyev, who found the key to the periodic table that way (but only after a long time of hard work on the project). Perhaps this is why Einstein would seek 10 to 12 hours of sleep for optimal problem solving. Yes, it is a myth that all geniuses sleep less than the rest of us. So maybe just take an "Archimedes bath" and, if that doesn't work, get a good night's sleep.

Functional Fixedness

Seeing things only for what they were meant to be used for and not seeing things for what they can be used for is called functional fixedness. A book is meant for reading, a wastebasket for waste, and a hair dryer for drying hair. But a book can be used for a weight or a booster seat, a wastebasket for a flowerpot, and a hair dryer for drying paint.

Try to transcend functional fixedness to solve the two problems below:

Problem 1: Two strings about four feet long are suspended from an eight-foot ceiling at opposite points in a room. Each string hangs three feet from the nearest wall. Your task is to tie them together. Although the strings are long enough to meet in the middle, holding on to one of them prevents you from grasping the other, which is just two feet out of your reach. Nearby, and within reach as you hang onto one string, is a desk with some tools on it: a hammer, a pair of pliers, a screwdriver, and a penknife. What do you do? (adapted from Maier, 1931) Problem 2: On a table is a full box of kitchen matches, a candle, and some tacks. Your task is to attach the candle to the wall in a way that wax will not drip on the floor. What do you do? (Duncker, 1945)

When all ideas have been generated, we can best select solutions by preliminary evaluation, in which we use our imagination to assess the value of a solution be- fore it is even implemented. We can also select solutions by assessing pros and cons, by breaking large goals into smaller one, by using the trial-and-error method, by working backward, and by following a few other tactics and tips.

Selecting Solutions 299

Preliminary Evaluation

[Newton's} peculiar gift was the power of holding continuously in his mind a purely mental problem until he had seen through it.

-JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES, ESSAYS IN BIOGRAPHY

Sometimes we imagine the solution to a problem so automatically that we may not realize we have solved a problem. For example, how would we remove three pennies from the bottom of a tall glass if we were only given the choice of using a clothes- pin, coat hanger, or long, thin tongs? Which would we choose? Undoubtedly we would pick the long tongs and reject the other items; in essence, we "evaluated" imperceptibly.

THINK ABOUT IT: There are ways to get the pennies out of the glass with the other items. Do you know how?

Just as we browse through the shopping malls and imagine how we would look in certain clothes, in preliminary evaluation we picture the problem us- ing one of our proposed solutions, but with this difference: We attempt to consider many more components and possible responses to the proposed solu- tion. Most men and women probably do not imagine how a piece of clothing would fit when they raise their arms to say hello, nor are they likely to imag- ine how it would look on them as they run to the bus stop; some may imagine how it would look sitting down or bending over, but many do not. Preliminary evaluation is an exercise in anticipation through imagination. We must imagine implementing the solution, while considering the solution's effects on as many variables as possible.

Problems in Anticipation

I remember the rage I used to feel when a prediction went awry. I could have shouted at the subjects of my experiments. "Behave, damn you, behave as you ought!" Eventually I realized that the subjects were always right. It was I who was wrong. I had made a bad prediction.

-B. F. SKINNER, WALDEN TWO

Anticipating becomes more difficult when there are many components and pos- sible interactions. For instance, in order to predict our weather perfectly, we would have to know all of the variables precisely. If one small weather variable were miscalculated, it could eventually affect the entire forecast for a given area in the future. Failure to accurately measure the ocean's temperature in one rather

300 CHAPTER 12 8 Problem Solving

small area, for example, could lead to warmer or colder air than predicted and make or break the formation of a storm. The immense difficulty in this type of forecasting has generated the mathematical and scientific theory of chaos.

Anticipation is also confounded by wildcard variables. These are variables that arise unexpectedly, such as the sudden separation and divorce of the company's president and its effects on the president's competence and risk-taking behavior, volcanic eruptions and their effects on the weather, a sudden coup in a foreign country and its effects on the stock market, and an ex-spouse's sudden refusal to pay child support and its effects on the other spouse's plans to earn a college degree.

Perhaps the most unpredictable variable is the human variable. Behind people's actions are their goals, their life meanings, their personal histories, as well as whether or not they ate breakfast that morning or suffered insomnia the night before. It is difficult enough to anticipate any one person's behavior, but predictions involving numerous individuals, as in the planning of wars and pol- itics, is compounded enormously. Thus, any predictive solution involving the human component is only a fragile prediction. The British statesman Winston Churchill expressed his awareness of the problem this way:

Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforesee- able and uncontrollable events .... (Churchill, 1930, p. 232)

In sum, because numerous problem variables (especially human ones) and their numerous interaction effects are difficult to predict, our preliminary evaluation cannot be totally accurate, but it can be careful, intelligent, and well- intentioned; in other words, as long as we know its limitations, our evaluation can be good, but it will never be perfect.

CHAOTIC SYSTEMS

Much of science has been dominated by the great laws of nature con- cerning motion, thermodynamics, nuclear periodicity, and relativity. These laws work well when applied to simple movements such as those of a planet, an airplane, or a baseball, producing such acq..Jrate predictions that the universe appears to be determined. However, other areas of nature seem to be impossible to determine. These areas are called chaotic systems. According to chaos theory, chaotic systems are extremely sensitive to "initial conditions," meaning that any uncertainty or error in the measurement

(continued)

Selecting Solutions 301

CHAOTIC SYSTEMS (Continued) -;y·:~-;-~:::-:" .. q~,' ~.

of the system's variables at a given time (initial condition) will eventually lead to conditions that were not foreseeable. Changing weather, liquid turbulence, and the branching of trees, blood vessels, and neurons in the brain are examples of chaotic systems. Even economics and human be- havior can be seen as chaotic systems.

In chaotic systems, if we cannot measure the crucial variables with infinite precision, then our prediction will go awry at some time-the more and greater the errors, the sooner it will go awry. And because infinite measurement is impossible, these systems are only roughly predictable at short intervals and theoretically unpredictable at long inter- vals. As time goes by, small errors in measurement mount to make the difference between, say, a hurricane and ideal golfing weather, and they can make the difference between our solution's failure or success. In short, there are many uncertainties in problem solving, particularly in searching for long-term solutions; the further out in time we project our solution, the more likely chaos will intervene.

Pros and Cons

Problem solutions are imperfect; a solution may often have strengths on one side and weaknesses on another. We must then determine whether the strengths outweigh the weaknesses enough to justify implementing the solu- tion. Assessing the strengths and weaknesses of solutions is sometimes called cost-benefit analysis-a process that looks at both quantity and quality. For instance, a solution may have two drawbacks and one advantage; the draw- backs seem to win from the quantity point of view. But if the single advan- tage were very important, it would outweigh the numerically superior drawbacks.

The strengths and weaknesses of a solution depend on the value we assign to different outcomes. For instance, if a solution looks financially profitable it may be adopted despite serious drawbacks to human psychological and physical health. This can be seen in U.S. policies on air quality. On more than one occa- sion, deadlines for meeting air-quality standards have been extended because industries have complained of the expense. In the meantime, millions ofhuman beings suffer the consequences of air pollution, including death. Yet, if one gives high value to the dollar and low value to health hazards, the solution may be seen as a good one. Values are intricately linked to our assessment of a solu- tion's worth.

302 CHAPTER 12 • Problem Solving

Other variables to consider when weighing pros and cons are timeliness, effectiveness, reliability, reversibility, and the risk of making a bad decision. A great solution that cannot be implemented for some years may in fact be no solution at all because it is not timely. Effectiveness is the extent to which the solution actually resolves the problem. Reliability is how consistently the solution will work. And reversibility is the ease with which the solution can be retracted without serious consequences. Supreme Court decisions, for example, are not easily reversible.

The risks of making a bad decision can be gauged by asking, "What's the worst that can happen?" Would someone die? Would we remain unhappy for the rest of our days? Would we be fired? Would someone be injured? Obviously, if the costs of implementing a wrong solution were high, we would hesitate and look for a better alternative or do a more careful preliminary evaluation before implementing it. Drug companies, who offer medication as a solution to health problems, typically face high risk potential and must therefore spend more time assessing their solution.

Other important questions remain to be asked in a cost-benefit analysis of the solution. Is it ethical? How will it affect our family and other relationships? Are the human resources available for implementation? And so on. All the vari- ables described above call for active thinking to determine the best possible solution.

REJECTIONS ON MINOR GROUNDS

It is not usually reasonable to reject a proposal because there are one or two drawbacks to it. Often very good ideas may still have one or two dis- advantages. Unfortunately, it is quite common to have such solutions rejected because of minor drawbacks, even though the advantages far outweigh the disadvantages. The failure of those who reject the proposal might lie in one of two areas: They assume that a perfect proposal exists, or they fail to recognize the advantages of the solution over the disadvan- tages. Many good solutions have been rather quickly dismissed because of one salient drawback, leaving the problem on the table, sometimes per- manently, as people wait for the perfect, complete soi~Jtion. The real reason underlying some of these rejections may be a need to protect some personal interest or simply a fear or reluctance to change. Awareness of these irrational rejections will help us objectively weigh the advantages and disadvantages of a given solution.

Selecting Solutions 303

Weighing Pros and Cons

Identify the pros and cons of the following solutions to curb the handgun homicide rate in the United States.

1. Make it illegal to own a handgun and create severe, mandatory sentencing for violation of this law.

2. Requ ire that people convicted of theft or violent crime after the age of eighteen be forbidden forever to own a handgun.

3. Require that the punishment for any crime committed with a handgun be double what it would have been without a handgun .

4. Requ ire every middle school and high school in the United States to set up metal-screening devices in school entrances and conduct thorough locker checks at random throughout the school year.

5. Allow all citizens to carry a handgun in their cars, places of business, and homes for their own defense.

6. Forbid the television industry to broadcast programs with scenes of gun murder.

7. Requ ire parents to lock up all handguns and ammunition they own and remove ch ildren from the home of any parent who fails to abide by th is law.

8. Require that all gun owners be licensed and pass a mandatory gun safety course.

9. Initiate an education program starting in elementary school that instills self-esteem, teaches self-restraint, and explores alternatives to violence for solving personal problems.

10. En list the services of the U.S. Army in the control of illegal substances in the Un ited States.

Subgoal Analysis

Sometimes a problem can be broken down into smaller problems, each having its own solution. The apparently insurmountable goal of writing a term paper, for example, can be broken down into many subgoals: Write the pros, write the cons, write the conclusion, and write the introduction. Instead of one goal involving ten pages, we have four goals involving two or three pages each. Even subgoals can often be further broken down. In this way overwhelming tasks become man- ageable problems. As another example, consider the goal of building a substantial savings. The first goal might be to get a good-paying job, the second goal to pay

304 CHAPTER 12 • Problem Solving

off all debts, and the third goal to invest in appropriate mutual funds or stocks. Each of these subgoals is a problem in itself, but as smaller problems they are less threatening and easier to manage, and solutions are easier to come by. Moreover, as we find ways to achieve each subgoal, we gain reinforcement, self-confidence, and the motivation necessary to achieve our ultimate goals.

Trial and Error

The trial-and-error method of problem solving, involving little preliminary eval- uation, is the process of trying solution after solution until we happen upon the correct one. Such trials may be guided by nothing more than a hunch or simple experimental inquisitiveness, or they may be slight modifications of earlier trials that almost reached the mark.

Often we use this hit-or-miss approach because we do not understand the problem very well, critical information is lacking, or the problem components and possible interactions among them are too numerous for us to be able to an- ticipate a solution. The trial-and-error method may sound rather primitive and inferior to a more methodical approach, but as a last resort it can be an exciting way to solve problems. Before beginning trial and error, however, we must be careful about serious negative consequences that might result. If the cost of a mistake is high, such as serious injury or losing one's life savings, then the trial- and-error method is inappropriate.

THINK ABOUT IT: Should the trial-and-error method be used in medicine? If so, under what circumstances?

Working Backward

In solving a problem of this sort, the grand thing is to be able to reason backward. -ARTHUR CONAN DOYLE, A STUDY IN SCARLET

Working backward may seem backward, but it is, nonetheless, the preferred approach to solving some kinds of problems. Even graduate students must learn its lesson:

There was once a quiet graduate student sitting at a table with his peers in his final doctoral statistics course. The professor, testing the problem-solving ability of his brilliant class put a quite complicated statistical problem on the board. "Now," he said, "Who would like to explain to the class how we should begin with this problem?" The quiet student looked at the problem and the answer was immediately apparent. But could it be that easy? He looked around

Selecting Solutions 305

at his older peers. Not one of them made a move to solve it. Boldly he raised his hand and proceeded to explain to the class how it was to be done. When he was finished, another student, before giving the professor a chance to comment, blurted out, somewhat contemptuously, "That's all backward!" And a mum- bling of agreement followed by several other students. "Yes," replied the pro- fessor. "Wasn't it beautiful? That's exactly how it is to be done!" [anonymous]

Indeed, sometimes working backward is the way it is to be done. The technique is simple. We start with the goal, imagine the step just before the goal, the step before that step, and so on, until we arrive at the first step. That first step is then implemented, as are the others, in forward order. Suppose, for example, that we want to move our library books into what is now the bedroom, so that the old library room can become the new baby's room. Thinking backward about this problem might go something like this:

I can't move the library into the bedroom because the bedroom is occupied with furniture . So I'll first move the furniture into the spare room, which will become the new bedroom. But the spare room is full of boxes with all my pre- cious memorabilia. Of course that can go in the basement. But the basement leaks water, which means I'll have to stack the boxes on shelves. Shelves! I don't have any shelves. So I'll first have to get some shelves. But I can't load heavy shelves into my compact car. Maybe my brother can help me; he has a van, and he doesn't live too far away! I'll give him a call. But I don't have his number; he just moved. Mom has it; time to visit mom.

In this way we've discovered that the first step in moving our library is to visit mom. As simple as this working backward procedure is, many people fail to use it and thus find themselves stuck in the middle of a mess.

- .~ ~-:. • : " .. -co , ,.,

THINKING BACKWARD ~ :,~,('~ -~·~'c, .. -~..,.,., ~. ~

The approach of working backward in problem solving must be distin- guished from the "working backward" (some call it thinking backward) that occurs when we try to find reasoning or scientific steps to prove our preconceived ideas. Saint Augustine, for example, began with a strong belief in Christian ity and then interpreted Plato's phi losophy in such a way as to give support to Christian thought. In a sim ilar way, Sa int Thomas Aqu inas "set out to square Christian beliefs with Aristote lian reason ing" (de Bono, 1976, p. 69). Both knew where they would end up beforehand. True convictions can find support this way, but good th inking and good science do not presuppose a bel ief and then massage data and ideas in such a way as to "prove" it. Hypotheses in science, a form of presupposed

(continued)

306 CHAPTER 12 • Problem Solving

THINKING BACKWARD (Continued)

belief, are supposed to be tentative, tested objectively, and abandoned when the data do not fit. So, too, with other ideas. Convictions are almost indelible; working backward from them when they are not true will gen- erally lead to thinking errors, not a change in convictions. Religious fun- damentalists, convinced the Bible is inerrant, will likely reshape obvious interpretations of the Bible that appear to be at odds with scientific or historical facts in order to render biblical passages more congruent with inescapable evidence; they usually will not alter their belief about the literal truth of the Bible. When convictions are true, an objective, sound think ing and scientific path will not threaten them. When they are not, thinking and scientific paths are sometimes massaged to support them. If not, outright denial may be called upon. (See "Denial" (p. 26) and "Pseu- doscience" (p. 254) for similar information.)

THINK ABOUT IT: To what extent do you think the big bang theory came about by physicists working backward?

Problem-Solving Tips

When we encounter what appears to be an unsolvable problem, sometimes a solution is waiting to be discovered. Here are a few tips that can help to break the impasse.

• Tip 1: Change deadlines. When we are overwhelmed with a number of activities or cannot find the human or other resources in time to accomplish the task, we can remember that deadlines are often not firmly fixed (epitaphs are written in stone, but even the IRS grants ex- tensions) . Sometimes we set a deadline for ourselves and never consider extending it, even though an extension would cause only minor incon- venience. At other times, of course, we are at the mercy of deadlines set by others . It is often worth approaching others for an extension, because many deadlines are set rather arbitrarily in the first place.

B Tip 2: Compromise. Sometimes our problem component is a person who appears unyielding on an issue, such as the hours he will work or the kind of work he will do. We need to remember that people are not al- ways as rigid as they seem to be and that some people are influenced by good reasons to change. Look for a compromise to solve the problem.

Evaluating Solutions 307

• Tip 3: Check the facts. Things are not always what they seem. In the world of human relationships, we often get a problem picture that is a gross misrepresentation of the real situation. We might hear, for example, that employees in department B are angry at management and are threaten- ing to quit en masse if certain demands are not met. This would be a se- rious problem, except that it may be entirely fiction, a mere rumor grown to enormous proportions. Therefore, it is always worth checking to see if the problem as we understand it is the problem as it really is.

• Tip 4: Use empathy. Empathy is seeing and feeling the world from another person's point of view. In working on problems involving people, it is essential that we learn to empathize with the situation of others, for only then can we truly understand the problem.

• Tip 5: Take time to reflect. When we are faced with a complicated and chal- lenging problem; it takes time to acquire the information and under- standing necessary for a good solution. It also takes time to do an adequate preliminary evaluation. A hurried approach may give us a brief sense of accomplishment and temporary relief from pressure, but only until the solution fails. Even worse, a quick and haphazard ap- proach may exacerbate the problem. For example, a quickly and poorly thought-out decision to engage the enemy in war instead of in diplo - matic dialogue could grow into global warfare. On a lesser scale, imag- ine the consequences of making a hasty decision about our major in college, whom to marry, or how to deal with a serious relationship issue. Some problem solutions can be revoked with little or no effect; others, however, may leave irretrievable marks.

• Tip 6: Anticipate potential problems. It is better to have potential problems worked out ahead of time. Anticipating problems can often lead us to take a course of action that avoids them altogether. And if a potential problem emerges, we will have alternatives ready.

• Tip 7: See problems as fun! Most problems can be viewed as challenges or oppportunities, and solving them can even be fun! This perspective re- duces stress and makes problem solving enjoyable. Of course, this atti- tude is difficult to achieve if deadlines are pressing and unyielding or the consequences of a wrong decision are enormously serious.

After the choice is implemented, the solution should be monitored to measure its effectiveness. If the problem remains, the solution may be rejected in favor of an alternative one. However, we should hesitate before rejecting the solution

308 CHAPTER 12 • Problem Solving

outright; often some slight modification will allow the original solution to work properly. If the modification required is major, the modification may then be treated as another problem to solve.

SUMMARY

We have focused on everyday problems that can be solved through action. The first step in problem solving is to define the problem as precisely as possible. If we define our problems precisely we can often identify the causes, sometimes leading us immediately to a resolution. Not all problems, however, are approached correctly by searching for causes.

In working toward a resolution, we must remove barriers such as irrational ideas about perfection, fear of failure, and fixed ways of thinking. We can then begin generating solutions by gathering full information from experts, personal experience, librarians, and the people involved in the problem itself.

Sometimes finding a solution requires thinking creatively about the world. We can then select a solution through preliminary evaluation, assessment of pros and cons, identification of subgoals, or working backward. If key information is lacking or the problem is too complex to anticipate a solution, the trial- and-error method can be tried as long as the consequences of a wrong decision are not critical. As we search for solutions, we can recall some problem-solving tips: (1) Change deadlines; (2) compromise; (3) check the facts; (4) empathize; (5) take time to reflect; (6) anticipate potential problems; and (7) see the prob- lem as fun. Finally, we implement and monitor the solution.

Problem-Solving Challenges

1. Have you ever solved the wrong problem by buying or fixing the wrong part? How could this have been prevented?

2. In what way is the search for a clear definition to a problem similar to searching for the cause of the problem?

3. Solving a mechanical problem is simple compared with a human problem. How might you solve the problem of a relationship that is going sour?

4. Select a personal problem and apply the problem-solving strategies in this chapter. Do any of the problem-solving tips apply here?

5. Select a huge social or economic problem (such as teenage pregnancy, ram- pant crime, drug abuse, the high divorce rate) and write a paper on how you would go about solving this problem using the approaches in this chapter.

6. If we can name the problem, we are half way to solving it. Do you think this statement is accurate? Why or why not?

Summary 309

7. What are your barriers to solving problems?

8. Why are more managers in manufacturing plants now listening to their line workers?

9. In this chapter we ask you to think forward (anticipate how the solution will work) and to think backward (to get a starting point). Think forward and imagine where you want to be in five years. From that point, think back- ward to find the next significant step you must take to get there.

10. Having a list of pros and cons can give you greater objectivity in your think- ing. Take a social program or proposal-such as welfare, national health insurance, the investing of social security in personal stock accounts, or the idea ofless government-and list the pros and cons, being fair to all sides of the issue.

11. What constitutes a good solution? How do we know when a problem is solved? Although this question sounds simple, it may take more thinking than we expect.

12. Trial and error may seem scary or risky. When would you use it? When would you not use it?

EVALUATING

The test is: Will the concept work? Does it give an unforced unity to the experience of

mrm? Does the concept make life order(!f, not b.!J edict, but in fact? -JACOB BRONOWSKI, SCIENCE AND HUMAN VALVES

What a great idea! Sometimes we are struck by our own brilliance: the idea is great. It might be applauded by others and we feel duly appreciated, but sometimes it is rejected or scorned outrightly. What then? Does the rejection and scorn make our idea bad? When we rethink our idea we may understand why it was rejected, we may see the flaw in our think- ing, or the poor factual foundation, but at other times we may still be con- vinced of the greatness of our idea. Who's right? How then do we validate our thinking?

When we evaluate our thinking, we are judging it. We are calling upon that function of our mind that psychologist Benjamin Bloom considered one of the highest acts of the human intellect. We are sitting in judgment with Solomon and the great Supreme Court justice John Marshall, exuding wisdom-or so we hope. In this chapter we use our judging intellect to understand how we need to test our thinking through dialogue; we consider the tests of reproductivity, sim- plicity, predictability, perspective, balance, completeness, and longevity; and we revisit our thinking bases-our senses, feelings, language, memory, logic, cre- ativity, and organization-as major checkpoints to evaluate our thinking.

310

The Necessity to Test Thinking 311

Although our approach here is systematic and thorough, in our individual acts of evaluating we do not usually move systematically through each checkpoint; rather, we tend to sweep across the bases and examine those areas that seem to contain weak thinking.

Testing, or validation, is the final step of the scientific method, and whenever possible we need to apply it to our own thinking. Without testing, the scien- tific method can fail miserably. The Hubble telescope was not tested before it was sent into orbit; it was aimed at a distant formation and gave blurred re- sults; then it was discovered that the mirror was inaccurately ground and did not focus light precisely. Astronomers and taxpayers were angry, frustrated, and rather incredulous that such a simple step had been overlooked. NASA sent a multimillion dollar piece of equipment into space before seeing whether or not it worked.

Testing is a step we need to apply to our thinking whenever possible. How many times have we had a great idea and, when we tried it, were embarrassed be- cause we had overlooked an obvious obstacle. In the abstract, our thinking can seem fine. For instance, a group of students were trying to get everyone over a wall as part of a character-building program. At first thought it seemed natural that the bigger students would boost the smaller ones to the top of the wall, so that is what they did. At the end, the last and largest student was stuck on the ground. By trying out their idea, the group found that they had to reverse their thinking plan and get the bigger students to the top of the wall first because it took many smaller students to lift them. The bigger students could then reach down and pull up the lighter students. Sometimes our thinking seems fine until we try it out, but without testing it first, our thinking could fail like the Hubble telescope.

It is not always simple to test our thinking and rarely can we achieve con- clusive results. Although we might like to have a scientific "certainty" in all realms of thinking, often the best corroboration we can get is strong agreement from others.

The Crucible of Critical Dialogue

Critical dialogue is to thinking what testing is to science. We test our ideas in the crucible of active interchange, refutation, modification, and acceptance of ideas. In a community of thinkers, what is written can be critiqued and what is said can be debated and discussed. Unless our thinking is to remain valuable to us alone, we must express it and test it, or it will die with us.

312 CHAPTER 13 • Evaluating

If marketers want to know whether a new product will sell, they form focus groups of typical customers, give them the product, and listen to their criticisms. If an author wishes to test her book, she sends it to readers and asks for their re- actions. Similarly, all areas of human living such as cooking, poetry, work, art, architecture, fashion, entertainment, and sports are critiqued by others.

Ultimately others become our jury. Writers turn to readers, politicians turn to voters, marketers turn to buyers, and ministers turn to parishioners. Some- times we can select our jury before the actual trial. We can take our thoughts and papers to those whose thinking is respected by the community, to those who are knowledgeable, to those who are not biased toward us or our ideas. Even as you now read this book, you are part of the jury for the authors' thinking. You can evaluate the work. You can ask these questions about this book, and about other works you are evaluating. Was the purpose clear? Did it help you understand the nature of thinking? Was the book both broad and deep, yet accurate and clear. Did it avoid biases? Did it spark further ideas? Did it provide answers? Did it lead to further questions?

Using Dialogue

List three m four ideas you have had or actions you have taken that would have been better if they had been tested by dialogue . List a few times when you did talk with someone about your ideas and were glad you did. List two or three decisions you might be making in the future that wou ld be aided by critica l dialogue . Who are the people you want to talk to?

Critical Monologue

When we do not have competent critics at hand, we have to go it alone to test our own thinking; we have to hold a dialogue, as it were, with oursel£ In that case, as we noted in Chapter 1, writing is one of the best tools to objectify, or mirror, our thinking. After we have written out our thoughts, we should set them aside. The longer we wait before we read them, the better chance we have to read them critically, as if they were not our own, as if the words on the paper were the only clues to the meaning of our topic.

One way to gain this objectivity is to imagine our harshest critics reading our writing while we are watching and getting their reactions. Under such scrutiny we will write nothing that we cannot support. Through this critical monologue, our thinking will tighten.

The Necessity to Test Thinking 313

The Elegance of Simplicity

Genius is the ability to reduce the complicated to the simple. -C. W. CERNAN

Since many great insights are simple, simplicity can sometimes be part of the evaluation process. Consider a few simple but great ideas: if we roll a ball, it keeps going until something stops it; when a bullet explodes from the barrel, it recoils back on the rifle; the sun and the earth, or any two objects, attract each other, and the bigger and closer they are, the more they attract. These three ex- amples are the three great laws of motion stated by Newton, and they are ele- gantly simple. So too is the simple pattern of the DNA molecule, which varies only four steps up a winding staircase (adenine, thymine, cytosine, and gua- nine); and Mendeleyev's periodic table, which embraces all matter, simply counts protons from 1 to 92: 1 proton = hydrogen, 2 protons = helium, and so forth.

E = mc2 is beautifully simple. Simplicity is valued in most fields; complexity is often a failure to com-

municate simply. In philosophy we have referred to the elegant simplicity of Occam's razor. In language we saw the clarity and force of brevity. Some of the most-quoted passages in literature are profoundly simple. What would you think of a six-word phrase in which five of the words had only two letters and the fourth word had only three letters? "To be, or not to be, that is the question." Most of us have been frustrated by the compounded intricacies of legal documents. (We know one author who spent longer negotiating a publishing contract than she spent writing the book.) Against this legal verbiage Montaigne affirms simplicity: "The most desirable laws are those that are fewest, simplest, and most general" (1967, p. 345). Suspect complexity. Think simple.

The Flattery of Imitation and Development

Fertile ideas reproduce. If our testing has upheld our thinking, we may be re- warded with the imitation and expansion of our ideas, both of which are addi- tional tests of the worth of our thoughts. Imitation is a high form of flattery and a partial validation of an idea because good ideas are often repeated. Without imitation of some kind, a loudly proclaimed idea can collapse like the "discov- ery" of cold fusion. An even higher form of flattery occurs when the ideas are so good that they are used as the basis for other ideas. This expandability is also a partial test of the worth of an idea. Plato's and Aristotle's foundational ideas were expanded into the towering structure of Western philosophy. Shakespeare's rhythms and metaphors form the center of the last 400 years of literature. Freud opened the door to the unconscious mind through which countless psychologists

314 CHAPTER 13 • Evaluating

still walk. Watson and Crick began unraveling the spiral DNA, and the fine- tuning of the genome continues.

The Power of Predictability

Like expandability, predictability also tests the worth of ideas. Mendeleyev's simple table predicted all the elements long before they were found. Einstein's relativity theory predicted that mass would bend light-an occurrence that eventually was measured during an eclipse as starlight bent around the sun. The contemporary quark/lepton theory predicted that six quarks would be found, and described the nature of each; The discovery of the last quark, "Top," was announced late in 1992. So we should ask ourselves, does our thinking help to predict how other ideas or pieces of the puzzle might fit around this one?

Perspective, Balance, and Completeness

Mount Everest used to be called "Peak 15." That's because it didn't look big to the British survey team that first named it; they were roo far away. Without the proper perspective the highest mountain in the world was just another large peak. The perspective we have changes our view. If we are lying in the grass, we have a limited view; if we stand up we see more. If we climb a tree, board a plane, or look down at the earth from a satellite camera, our perspective changes. Which is better-in the grass or up in a satellite? It depends. Are we studying an ant or the earth's weather patterns? We need the correct perspective for the thinking task at hand. Pascal cautions us:

If we are too young or too old we do not judge well. If we think too much or not enough about a topic we can get infatuated or obstinate about it. If we en- ter something too soon or put it off too long, if we are too close or too far away we cannot see accurately. (1958, p. 1 03)

Keeping perspective takes balance. As Pascal notes, extreme distance, age, effort, and time can all cause distortions in judgment. We need balance, the balance of Aristotle's golden mean. This is not a lukewarm mediocrity but the balance on a high wire, the tension in a prewar debate in Congress, the judge up- holding the law and being merciful to one who stole out of hunger. Virtus stat in medio ("Virtue stands in the middle"). And we might add veritas. Truth stands in the middle.

Part of keeping balance is completeness. Do all three legs of the tripod touch ground? Are all of the necessary facts involved in the thinking (remember the blind men feeling different parts of the elephant)? A newspaper described the first-place and third-place awards in a sand-sculpting contest. Readers were disturbed that

Testing Against Our Thinking Bases 315

second place was not announced, even though they did not know the partici- pants. Completeness of thought is part of evaluating thought; as Shakespeare says, "Ripeness is all."

The Test of Time

Chronology is a quick test. Does our information line up in the order it hap- pened? Chronology is also a long test: Will our thinking stand the test of time? Aristotle's old idea that there is nothing new under the sun has been assailed by newness yet has stood the test of many sunsets. Of course we cannot wait cen- turies to test our thinking, but if our ideas are sound and profound they will likely grow and endure; if they are fragile and faddish, they will likely flash and fade. Although time is an old test, however, it is good to remember that not all old ideas are true, for as Montaigne tells us, "Truth is none the wiser for being old" (1967, p. 364).

Does Time Always Test True?

If it lasts it's good; if it doesn't, it's bad . How accurate is the test of time? Can you think of any historical people, events, or inventions that we re misjudged by "time"? Can you recall any idea that has stood the test of time, even for centuries, but has now been "proved" wrong? If time was wrong in that interim, how do we know it is right now? How many ways can time be wrong? Make some guesses about which current ideas or authors will become classics-that is, will still be valued hundreds of years from now.

Let's quickly return to our thinking bases to evaluate the effectiveness of our thinking.

Personal Barriers

When we do not have the counterpoint of vigorous dialogue, we especially need to be wary of our personal barriers. If the topic we are thinking about elicits strong emotions from us, we need to think carefully and objectively to avoid any distortion in our thinking. We need to be careful that we are not thinking in a stereotypical and enculturated manner and that our personal wishes and personal

316 CHAPTER 13 • Evaluating

pride are not overwhelming our good sense. We must also be aware of our level of stress, the condition of our body, and the effects these may have on our ideas.

Perceptions and Memory

A quick check: Do we have the data right? Are we sure of our sensual perceptions? Do the appearances reflect the reality? Have we listened acutely and sensitively, and can vie trust the speaker or writer? Are our facts correct? Are we confident that our memory is accurate? If any of our sensual sources or recollections are suspect, we can express our thinking conditionally and then research our doubts.

Language

Remember, our language does not just carry our thoughts; it is inextricably in- tertwined with our thinking. If we have time to write out our thoughts, we can analyze the language of our thinking. We want to use clear definitions, appro- priate connotations, fitting analogies, correct word order, contextual awareness, concrete nouns and active verbs, and we want to keep our thinking as tight and precise as possible.

"Brevity is the soul of wit," says Shakespeare's verbose Polonius in self- reflecting mockery. And we can be sure that Polonius would have railed pompously against bureaucracy if he had heard Chicago officials announce three days after the Chicago River surged into the tunnel system and shut the city down, "Chicago is speeding up its paperwork in order to get the Federal Gov- ernment to declare it a disaster area." Amazingly, the third largest city in the United States closed while waiting for paperwork. Can our thinking be like the government? Can we afford a bureaucracy of words?

Brevity adds to clarity, and although brevity is the sister of simplicity, it is not simple to be brief. It is hard to trim our thinking, which is, says Montaigne, our child. However, if we take the attitude that trimming our thinking makes our child smarter, stronger, and more beautiful, it is easier to place the good (but inappropriate) thoughts into other files.

THINK ABOUT IT: Voltaire said, "/would have written a shorter letter if I had more time."

Feelings

Are our feelings there? Can we reach down and identifY them? Thinking with- out feeling is often cold and sterile. We need these feelings as the force behind

Testing Against Our Thinking Bases 317

our thoughts. How do we feel toward the topic? Toward the audience? We need to harness the powerful, positive force of these feelings as the heart behind the eloquence of our mind.

Creativity Check

Do our ideas glisten? Or is our mind a desert and our thinking dry? If so, we can be sure that the sand dunes will mount in our receiver's mind. We need water- spring metaphors for our thoughts to bloom. Remember the metaphor-the heart of language, of thinking, of newness, of great thinkers. If our thoughts are cliched, our thinking will be repetitious, unoriginal, and boring, as desiccated as the desert. We want to remember to starburst, brainstorm, and in other ways coax our creativity to find that key analogy that will connect our thinking to the world and to other people.

Organization

Does our thinking have a clear structure: a chronological, topical, analogical, causal, or other natural or mental structure? Can we state our goal clearly? Can we name the three or four most important supporting ideas? Do all the ideas link together? Does our thinking have the perspective, balance, and complete- ness to stand the test of time?

Logic Check

Is our thinking well-grounded and tightly constructed? How sound are our premises and our assumptions? Will they be accepted by our audience? Do we reason solidly down from these premises, following the laws of logic, to a valid conclusion? Is our inductive thinking based on solid and repeated observations? Is our cause-and-effect analysis sound? Have we avoided reasoning fallacies, especially those that are deceptively appealing to us?

Our Tone Toward Our Thinking

In a reflective move, turn your analysis inward and try to discover what your own feeling, or tone is toward your own thinking. How do you feel about how you think? In reading this book, have you become more aware of your own thinking processes? How did you formerly feel about your thinking? What is your feeling about it now? Wonder? Confusion? Pride? Fear? Excitement? Try to reflect on the positive aspects of your thinking and feel optimistic about your ability to think, and to think better.

318 CHAPTER 13 • Evaluating

SUMMARY

We have considered the tests of dialogue, simplicity, expandability, pre- dictability, perspective, balance, and longevity; and we have touched back on former thinking bases to evaluate our thinking. We have found that we need accurate data provided by our senses and memory: clear, concise, contextu- ally accurate language; controlled and effective feelings; clear structure; and solid logic. When we have evaluated our ideas as good and our thinking as solid, it's time to act. The next chapter will show us how to put thought into action.

Evaluation Challenges

1. How do you know when to accept the thinking of others as valid? How do you know when your own thinking is accurate?

2. What do you do to gain perspective? Are there some things or people (such as parents or good friends) who are too close to you to judge objectively? List those persons.

3. Are there some topics you are too far away from to have a reasoned opinion about? Give some examples.

4. Who are some of the people with whom you might engage in critical dia- logue about specific issues? Would different people be better depending on whether the thinking area is professional, educational, or personal?

5. How long does an idea have to last to be good? 6. What types of thoughts are foundational, the kind on which others can

build?

7. Take a piece of your writing and trim it down with Occam's razor; cut out all unnecessary words.

8. Alexander Pope tells us, "Be not the first by whom the new is tried, nor yet the last to lay the old aside." Is this advice cowardly or wise, or does it de- pend on the situation?

9. How do you achieve balance in your own thinking? At what points or on what topics are you likely to stumble, or lose your perspective?

10. Much is made of the golden mean as the test of human excellence. What keeps this golden mean from turning into lukewarm mediocrity?

11. How do our courts of law evaluate guilt? Does this legal evaluation involve any of the methods for evaluating thinking discussed in this chapter? You may wish to read Bertolt Brecht's The Caucasian Chalk Circle and compare the unorthodox validation methods of a wise judge in the play with the judges in our legal system.

Summary 319

12. When you hear, "Mr. X was indicted for murder," what do you think about Mr. X? What does the term indicted actually mean? If Mr. X is found inno- cent, how will the media handle the news? How do you evaluate your think- ing about the word indicted?

13. A critical monologue is one way to evaluate our thinking. Horace tells us that when we have written something, we should put it away for nine years, evaluate it, edit it, and then publish it only if we still find it worthy. Nine years seems excessive, but how much intervening time do we need before we can evaluate our own thinking?

14. Part of the evaluation process is taking care of the final details. In writing, we revise and proofread our thoughts to avoid costly or ridiculous errors; for example, one book in the draft stage accidentally carried the word feces in- stead of faces. A small letter but a great difference. What methods do you use to give a final polishing to your thinking?

15. Like science, we want results; but unlike science, the results of our thinking do not approach certainty. Consequently, much of our judgment lies in the area of probability. How do you know when you have enough probability to judge your thinking to be worthy of action?

16. Part of evaluating the thinking, is evaluating the thinker. Peter Facione has given us a description of the ideal critical thinker who is "habitually inquis- itive, well-informed, trustful of reason, open-minded, flexible, fairminded in evaluation, honest in facing personal biases, prudent in making judg- ments, willing to reconsider, clear about issues, orderly in complex matters, diligent in seeking relevant information, reasonable in the selection of crite- ria, focused in inquiry, and persistent in seeking results" (1998, p. 14). While this list is daunting, and you might ask how could anyone meet all those criteria, it might be a good idea to check those that you do have and decide to maintain them, and to check those that are lacking or that you need to work on. Pick just one of them to start, and try it for a month, then go to the second.

17. Write a personal assessment of your evaluation methods, considering both strengths and weaknesses. Review the chapter and decide what you do well and what you need to work on to judge your thinking more accurately.

DECISION AND ACTION

Eve'Yone who's ever taken a shower has had an Mea. It's the person who gets out of

the shower, dries off, and does somethi11.!J about it who makes a difference.

-N. BVSHNfLL, FOUNDfR OFATARI

Once we have thought something out carefully and our thinking meets all our tests, we need to act. Our thoughts must give birth to action or remain sterile. Thinking without acting is like chewing food without swallowing. The com- plete thinker is the doer. "Suit the action to the word," says Shakespeare. If our knowledge goes into action, if we act on our best thoughts, we have our best chance to feel good about ourselves. And if we make good decisions frequently, we may someday be called wise. Furthermore, following our thoughts with ac- tion may even improve our thinking, as the old proverb says:

I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.

Montaigne describes an ideal decision: he wants nothing to take "place that has not the consent of every part of [himself], without divisions and without

320

Decision 321

inner rebellion" (1967, p. 13). Yet decision making is rarely that harmonious. Sometimes life or death is at issue when we choose, support, or vote for eu- thanasia, abortion, suicide, war, or capital punishment. Sometimes the result of our decision is simply to go to a movie or stay home. Whatever the case, we do need to decide. To live is to decide, and to live fully is to decide well.

In this chapter we explore how to decide. We look at a process of deciding; we present some difficulties that block our deciding such as fear, lack of knowl- edge, confusion, and conflict of values; we learn ways to deal with these difficul- ties by facing fears, firming our facts, drawing on character, using our feelings, role-playing, and imaging; we look at the timing of decisions, the actual moment of decision, at the action, and the evaluation after the action; we draw up an ac- tion plan to solidifY these steps; and we practice turning thinking into action.

A Native American said he had two dogs fighting inside himself, one mean and the other good When asked which one wins, he replied, "Whichever one I feed the most. "

I will. I won't. I'll go. I'll stay. I should. I shouldn't. Yes. No. Yes. Maybe. At times we teeter on the cliff of decision. We feel stressed by indecision as we vacillate through "decisions and revisions which a minute will reverse" (T. S. Eliot). Our thinking bases have already laid the groundwork for deciding. If our thinking has been solid, usually the decision will follow. When it doesn't, we can assist it through a three-step process by considering the goals, alternatives, and probable outcomes of each alternative. The goals are what we would ideally like to result from our decision and action. The alternatives are the ways we get those results. The probable outcomes are what we think will happen after we have chosen the alternatives. Let's look at an example:

• Step 1: State the goal. To get rich; more specifically, to acquire $1 million by age 55, retire, and then live off my investments.

• Step 2: List the alternatives: Plan I: Starting at age twenty-five, save $5,000 a year, earning I 0 percent compounded in a tax-deferred plan. Plan 2: Set up a specific investment plan in stocks and bonds. Plan 3: Set up a progressive real estate purchase plan.

• Step 3: Describe the probable outcomes: Plan I: Will work if I can earn, save, and get the 10 percent. Plan 2: Might work with a good brokerage firm and some luck. Plan 3: Might work with a knowledgeable agent in an area of the country that is appreciating in value.

322 CHAPTER 14 • Decision and Action

Difficulties in Deciding

Although the three-step process may appear simple, our mind does not work like a machine, nor do human institutions such as the stock market and real estate market follow a linear projection. Frequently we struggle to formulate goals, to assess the data, and to project possible outcomes. We also struggle with our own values. Let's look at some of the difficulties we can run into.

The Fear of Deciding

What if I'm wrong? Probably the greatest block to deciding is fear, which we have seen also hampers our creative thinking and our problem-solving abilities. Fears, anxieties, and doubts may be critically involved in leadership decision making. Fear chokes our thinking. When we worry about how our thoughts will be received, rejected, scorned, or ridiculed, we have difficulty deciding. It is safer to tread the traditional path and avoid decisions that cause change and threaten our self-esteem. When we feel we always need to be right, then often we will fear to decide. Or when we fear the conclusions we are reaching, we might abort the decision-making process. What if our lover doesn't love us? What if the boss of our company is crooked? What if our friends have betrayed us? In these in- stances we might not want to embrace the truth because it is harsh. We do not want to lose our lover, our friends, our job, so we avoid following our thoughts to a decision.

The Grip of Habit

Lack of knowledge is another reason (and usually a good one) to hesitate before deciding. However, even when we have the knowledge we do not always act. For example, modern studies show that physical punishment is no more effective than other forms of discipline and has serious drawbacks; consequently, the American Academy of Pediatrics has urged that it be outlawed in schools and avoided at home. Echoing this position, the surgeon general in 1985 said cor- poral punishment should be forbidden in schools and discouraged at home; yet in a survey published in the journal of the American Medical Association Qune 17, 1992), 59 percent of pediatricians and 70 percent of family physicians still sup- ported spanking, though their positions have recently changed. Why do these experts seem to act contrary to expert conclusions? Have they learned to doubt their colleagues? Or is it that old habits run deep?

Too Much Thinking

Sometimes we have too much information. It may be confusing, conflicting, or we may think too much about it. Thinking too much can stall action. Perhaps we know people like this or have met them in literature. The Underground Man by Dostoevski is a prisoner of his own thinking. Hamlet is a study in

Decision 323

thought, in thinking too long and acting too late. Hamlet reflects on his own inaction:

And thus, the native hue of resolution Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought, And enterprises ... lose the name of action.

We have Hamlets in the classroom. One English major thought, double- thought, triple-thought about everything before he spoke or acted; finally he be- came so enmeshed in his terrible mind-lock that he found it difficult to speak at all. Not just in literature but especially in philosophy, some students begin to think so intricately and involutedly that they actually question whether they are real or not. One philosophy major said, "I don't know ifl am alive, ifi'm dream- ing. I don't know anything for sure."

Clashing Motives

Conflicting needs, drives, and values can stop our decisions. Saint Augustine fought the battle of two wills: his body wanted sex yet his mind wanted chastity. Sometimes we act one way even when we think another way is better. One chocolate ice-cream addict placed a half-gallon of it deep in the basement freezer away from temptation. That same day he descended the stairs with a spoon in his hand and refused to listen to any guilt-producing thoughts. If we want some- thing badly enough, we will try to suppress or ignore our thinking.

A student captures some of the feelings, tensions, insights, and results of a decision:

My mind screamed NO! My thoughts argued with each other repeatedly. The fear had my speech and body paralyzed. Only my mind was functioning, toss- ing the negative messages like liquid mercury separating when put on a hard sur- face. I closed my eyes when I heard the Justice of the Peace say, "I now pronounce you man and wife." I started to cry! My new husband mistook those tears as joy- ful tears. Only I knew of the estranged feelings that existed, knowing instantly that I had done myself a violent injustice. The vivid echoing memory of those vows creates a haunting mirage distressing all functions of my well-being.

I was a young know-it-all of seventeen. A typical sample of a teenager. I had my mind made up to disband my family. I was spiteful. I wanted to prove my parents wrong! This dishonoring ill attitude that existed is still unexplain- able to this day. I know I longed for some acceptance.

Fifteen years too late, the reflection is clear why I accepted those vows. I fell in love with my husband's family. His mom and dad loved me back. I had a new family that loved me just the way I was. Yeah, I really felt important be- ing a wife and daughter-in-law. These roles turned stale real fast. This was the beginning of my devastating trials in the adult world.

I've often thought of what my life would be like if I had made a different choice. This choice resulted in a brutal, costly divorce. It left me financially and

324 CHAPTER 14 • Decision and Action

emotionally distraught. An important part of my life was wasted and a long re- covery was ahead of me. I can't replace the precious time lost, but I've learned to balance and weigh all my choices.

Each choice is a drop of water. That drop of water forms a puddle in time; this then becomes a stream to go on flowing as the river of life.

How to Decide

Facing Fear

If fear is the greatest obstacle to deciding, then courage and calm help us to de- cide. If we can free ourselves from obeisance to others, if we can strike strongly out on our own and let the chips and opinions fall where they may, we increase our decision-making power. An example of high praise given to a citizen activist was "He put his body where his words were." Courage is not bottled and sold, but it can be bought with hard work. We can change our thinking with mantras such as "I think it's right; I'll do it; others can do what they want." Easier said than done, but courage can build with practice.

Firming Our Foundation

When the decision is important and we have the time, the more thorough we are in our thinking preparation, the easier our decision will be. If we have covered our thinking bases, we have gone a long way toward deciding. We can make our thoughts objective and visible by writing them down.

A good way to capture our thoughts and facilitate decision making is to make a list of pros and cons (see Chapter 12, "Problem Solving"). Pick any de- cision issue you wish (changing jobs, asking someone out on a date, breaking up with someone, taking a certain course, and so forth). Write it down on the chart below, then write all the thoughts for and against that decision.

r I Decision Issue: ll PROS Weight CONS Weight

Total Total

Decision 325

Sometimes these lists surprise us. Perhaps one list is much longer than we would have guessed, but does the longest list win? What if one of the cons is that we will die? That single con would outweigh a long list of pros. To make our list more accurate, we can evaluate the items for importance by indicating a weight of 1 to 10 in the box alongside each item, using 10 if it is extremely important and 1 if it is of negligible importance. Now simply total the boxes and watch the scales of decision begin to tip in one direction.

Each decision we make has its own set of relevant criteria. For example, be- fore buying a house we might want to consider criteria such as location (neigh- borhood, urban or rural setting, proximity to schools, churches, and stores), price, size, materials, condition, and market comparisons. Before applying for a job we might consider the job description, our qualifications, the hours, salary, and benefits. Before bidding on the construction of a house, we look at the blue- prints and specs. Before marketing a product, we do consumer surveys and pro- files. The more complete our information, potentially, the better our decision.

Calling on Character

Sometimes, no matter what we know, the decision is hard because the results may be hurtful to us or to those we care about, or because the decision pits our greed against our good. When our character is in conflict, then we dig deep and decide who we are and who we want to become; we reach for principles, motivation, and values; we re- alize that our choices define us, that we become what we choose. To help us through these trying decisions, we can turn to Marcus Aurelius, Roman emperor, warrior, and philosopher. He tells us to perform each action as if it were our last. Similarly, Ignatius of Loyola, soldier and founder of the Jesuits, tells us to imagine ourselves on our deathbed and then choose as if the choice were the last event in our life.

In cases of character conflict, once the objective analyses are finished and we have concluded that waiting longer will not clarify the problem, we can then "push" the decision by focusing on the positive side and then, when we are able, decide quickly so as not to prolong the pain of conflicting choice. If we struggle and win, if we make the good choice, we are molding our character and subse- quent choices will be less difficult.

Jennifer used to buy gloves for price, warmth, and color. One winter her wrists were cold, so she bought longer gloves. Then she read about the in- sulating power of Thinsulate and she bought a pair filled with this material. But they slipped on her steering wheel, so she searched out a nonslip vari- ety. Her original list of three criteria grew to six: price, warmth, color, length, material, and grip. With time, our criteria will change and become firmer.

326 CHAPTER 14 • Decision and Action

Feelings: A Boost Toward Decision

Hegel thinks that "nothing great in the world has been accomplished without passion" (1837/1944, p. 23). That same passion can sometimes be that extra push toward a decision. Many of us make decisions not knowing that our feelings are driving our thoughts. If, however, we are highly aware of our feelings, if we are aware of how they act as barriers and can mislead us, if we are honest with our- selves and know ourselves reasonably well, if we give them input but not control, we can use feelings as part of the deciding process. Antonio Domasio is studying the emotional architecture of the brain, watching the "split-second emotional as- sessments of situations that unfold so quickly that we're usually not aware of the process .... Emotions turn out to be essential to our rational decision-making processes. If we didn't have those gut responses, we'd get caught in an endless cy- cle of analysis, drawing infinite pros-and-cons lists in our heads .... It's not that I'm saying the emotions decide things for you, it's that the emotions help you concentrate on the right decision" Qohnson, 2004, pp. 45-49).

Feelings and Decisions

We have just suggested a rather dangerous procedure: to use feelings to assist us in deciding even though feelings often sabotage thought. At th is point it might be wise to reflect back on when they have helped or hin- dered decisions. Which of our feelings might help us to make a sound de- cision? How or when can we trust them?

Imaging the Action

Another help in deciding is to form an image of ourselves doing the action. This method is similar to the systematic desensitization method of Joseph Wolpe, which can help us eliminate our fears. For instance, if we cannot decide to go to a stern school authority or a terrifying boss, we can visualize ourselves walking down the hallway toward the person's office. When we can do this without significant anxiety, then we can visualize .ourselves knocking on the door, then walking in, and finally, saying the difficult message. It is important to be relaxed at each step before we image the next one. Imaging can prepare us for difficult decisions and actions.

Role-Playing into Reality

After we have imaged it, then we can act it out, or role-play it. Delancy Street, a community prison in San Francisco, used role-playing to change thinking. Male

Decision 327

prisoners had to get haircuts, wear suits, and even walk "normally." They were asked to act as if they were successful, good citizens. This acting seemed to change their thinking, for their recidivism rate was quite low. About 80 percent of the role-players entered society and stayed there; apparently, many became the citizens whom they role-played.

We too can draw upon the power of acting to help ourselves carry out a de- cision. When the decision demands change and we don't seem to have the power to decide, we may be able to role-play the action. At first we will probably feel stiff, but repetition will make it easier; consequently, it will become easier to think about acting that way routinely. Finally, we will have the strength to do what we have been role-playing, and then our minds and our bodies will work together. By playing the role we can become the role.

Role-Playing

With a group of friends, or perhaps a group assigned in class, brainstorm some topics that wou ld frequently call for a decision . Try to determine the desired outcome and then act as if that were the outcome. For instance, if you wish to be positive and confident in approaching a difficult person, then act positive and confident whi le other people play the roles of the difficu lt person. This activity can easily be adapted to fit many situations. Co ntin ue to ro le-p lay until the role begins to feel more natural.

When to Decide

When is a big part of how. If the decision does not have to be made immediately, time and further knowledge may make the decision clearer. A president of a small college in Indiana told us that he did not like to decide quickly because time would often make the decision unnecessary. Horace, a Roman poet, wins the cunctator award: in his Ars Poetica he advises waiting nine years after a work is written before publishing it. But congressman Francis Culkin wanted to wait too long to approve the Grand Coulee Dam. He said "there is no one to sell the power to except the jackrabbits and rattlesnakes." Not long afterward, the hy- droelectric plant played a huge part in powering the U.S . industrial effort in World War II (Dietrich, 1995).

How long is too long? In general, the more serious the situation, the slower we should be to take action. If we are thinking about getting married, divorced, or investing our life's savings, we want a well-deliberated decision. Sometimes, however, even when the result could be catastrophic, a fast decision is needed.

328 CHAPTER 14 • Decision and Action

What if nuclear missiles are headed our way? What if a tornado is a hundred yards away? What if the oncoming car is in our lane heading toward us? What if a young child is choking and turning blue? When is a big part of how, and the answer to when is often now.

The Deciding Moment

With the problem faced and partially solved, the moment comes: ''I'll do it!" As we bask in our decision, we are unaware that something has happened in our brain. About 300 milliseconds before we consciously knew our decision, a "PSI 300 wave" occurred. Does that mean our decision is out of our control? Fortunately, Benjamin Libet, who studies the decision wave at the University of California at San Francisco, has shown that we can stop our decision one- to two-tenths of a second before we act on it (Restak, 1979, p. 49). Perhaps our control lies as much in censoring as in deciding.

For the most part we advocate: Think first, then act. However, some research sug- gests that acting on unconscious thought sometimes leads to better decisions (Dijksterhuis, 2004). Gladwell Malcolm (2005, pp. 3-8) has popularized this concept. He gives a great example of trusting your first impressions, especially if you are an expert: The J. Paul Getty Museum in California had spent 14 months doing all the scientific studies on an "ancient" Greek statue, and they were ready to pay almost $10 million for it. An Italian art historian glanced at it, stared at the fingernails of the statue, and felt that something seemed wrong. A second art historian glanced at the statue and the word "fraud" went through his head. Nei- ther expert could articulate what exactly was wrong, but the museum investi- gated longer and found it to be a forgery.

If the risk is not too great, we can simply test our thoughts by doing them, and observing the results. Thomas Savery and Thomas Newcomen built the thoughts of the French physicist Denis Papin into steam pumps. Thus began the industrial revolution. The force of Papin's ideas placed into action changed our world forever.

Not all actions are so tangibly testable. Thomas More's ideal society, de- scribed in Utopia, was never tested. However, the conceptual force of the book was tested. More compared England, a Christian society, with Utopia, a pagan society, and found England lacking. The English were shocked, and the concept of "utopia'' has forever since enriched our ideological world.

Action completes thinking, but action is not the end of thought. Action gives input into the cycle of thinking-deciding-acting, which leads to further

Summary 329

thinking. As we carry a decision into action, we are continually thinking about how to make it work: ''A plan depends as much upon execution as it does upon concept," says Frank Herbert, in his novel Dune (1987, p. 244). If we want the action to be successful, we must plan the execution. Here are some steps for developing a successful action plan:

Action Plan 1. Exactly what will I do? 2. When will I begin? 3. Who might help me? 4. How might I fail? 5. Is my plan realistic, achievable, measurable? 6. What motivations, rewards, or punishments will I set for myself in or-

der to carry it out?

Sometimes even when our thoughts are clear and accurate and when we make the best decision possible, we still can't control the outcome. The Player King in Hamlet says, "Our thoughts are ours, their ends none of our own."

After action comes the test of our thinking. How did the results turn out? How do we feel about ourselves? Was this a good decision or a bad decision? At this point we are just seeking objective evaluation. If our plan collapsed, we can re- call that we made the best decision that we could based on what we knew then. As Scottish poet Robert Burns noted, "The best laid schemes o' mice and men gang aft agley [often go astray]." But to help ensure that our plans do work, we evaluate them after the fact. We can add a seventh step to our action plan above: When will I review the success of my plan?

If we want our action plan to have an enduring effect, we have to periodically rethink, return to the premises, adjust the plan, and reinvigorate ourselves. And remember, while staying objective in our evaluation we can also stay positive: We can look on the rain as refreshing or depressing; we can look on college as a prison of the body or a freedom of the mind.

SUMMARY

In this chapter we have seen that the complete thinker is also the decider and the doer. We have found that our other thinking bases prepare us to decide; we have learned to set goals, consider alternatives, and estimate probable outcomes; we have

330 CHAPTER 14 • Decision and Action

learned to follow up decisions with an action plan; and we learned the following specific ways to help us decide: Firm our facts, face our fears, call on our character and our feelings, and image and role-play the action . We have found that timing is part of the decision, and that after the decision and action we can judge it, ad- just it, and set action plans to continue effective thinking and acting.

Decision and Action Challenges

1. Think of a decision that you have been putting off. What are some of the factors in your delay? Do you need more information before you decide? What are the consequences of deciding wrongly? Of not deciding? Can you think through the process on paper and make the decision?

2. A woman in her late thirties wanted to get married and have children. She had passed up several opportunities and was afraid her options were running out. Two men wanted to marry her: One man was fun but would make a poor fa- ther; the other was dull but would make a good father. She could marry one, the other, or neither. How would you choose if you were in the woman's place?

3. Although some of us wish ourselves so lucky, how would you choose a part- ner if you loved two persons and they both wanted you?

4. Does the deciding process described in this chapter work in affairs of the heart? What are the qualities you would like in your ideal mate? List them in order of importance.

5. Should you smile at a stranger? How do you make this decision? Why might you hesitate?

6 . Decision: Sexual relations? How do you decide?

7. Decisions usually have a downside. What is the downside of deciding you want to be rich?

8. In the movie Sophie's Choice, the heroine is in a Nazi concentration camp and is forced to choose one of her two children to be executed. How would you have decided in that position?

9. Notes from Underground by Dostoyevsky shows us one of the most turgid, twisted, convoluted, densest, brightest minds in literature. Read Part 1 of this short novel to understand how too much thinking can overload the mind's circuit.

10. Has excessive self-consciousness (thinking about oneself too much) ever made it difficult for you to speak or act? Have you ever thought yourself into a knot? How did you cut through that knot and act?

11. Does new knowledge change old decisions? Studies have shown that swim- ming after eating does not cause drowning, yet people from an older gener- ation have difficulty entering the water after eating.

Summary 331

12. What is the meaning of the saying "I do and I understand"? 13. Is not deciding really deciding? 14. As we choose, we choose ourselves. What does this statement mean and how

accurate is it?

15. What do common expressions such as "Put your money where your mouth is," "He's a blowhard," and "She talks a good line" say about our attitude to- ward action?

16. Image the following action: You have to make a difficult decision . Picture yourself gradually, in steps, getting closer to doing it.

17. Try out the advice of Marcus Aurelius and Ignatius of Loyola. Select a diffi- cult choice you have to make. Then, imagine that you are dying today and that this is the last choice you will make, and then choose. Did you gain some perspective on your choice?

18. Besides giving us the confidence to decide, role-playing can help us prepare for a difficult situation. Role-play a meeting with the dean of students, or role-play asking for a date from someone who might turn you down. Prac- tice with another person or in front of a mirror.

19. Could a flip of a coin ever be a useful way to make a decision? Could even a very important decision be settled on a flip?

20. Montaigne wore a medallion with the inscription ]e m'abstiens ("I restrain myself"). How necessary is restraint for making decisions?

21. If you wish to engage one of the greatest issues of philosophy, religion, and social science, you can ask the questions, Can I really decide? Am I really free?

22. "There is nothing either good or bad but thinking makes it so." Does this thought from Hamlet vitiate the worth of deciding? How can we draw power from this thought?

23. How can you apply the decision-making process to decisions made in groups? What parts would be the same? What parts would be different? What else would you need to add?