QNT 351 Sampling Distributions

Population in Decline: Puerto Rico

QNT/351

Population Declining in Puerto Rico

The economic recession which Puerto Rico’s is going through for more than a decade has many Puertorricans leaving to the main land in record numbers that can only be compared to those in the 1950th. A census conducted by the Pew Research. The analysis of data has found that an average of 64,000 leave more than those coming back.

In 2014 over 84,000 people left PR for the United States mainland, this show an increase of 38% compared to 2010. But during the same period the number of people returning to our small island has steadily decline which has resulted in a net population loss of 64,000 in 2014 which is more than double from that of 2010. This steady decline is a trend that has been occurring since 2005, which is actually the year before the recession began. With the economy experiencing one of its worse recessions and the tax revenues in a constant decline and no help from the U.S laws on bankruptcy, every month that passes the island loses more and more cash. With a upcoming payment of over 200 million dollars and no plan to cover it, the island is struggling to maintain face with the banks. The economic situation has worsened since many of those leaving the island are prime working forces age and their school age children.

But on the bright side a public opinion surveys show Puerto Ricans are not very confident in their economies and the future of the island as a hole. A poll conducted in December 2015 by Gallop, shows that only 6% of Puerto Rican residents thought economic conditions on the island were getting better, which is far worse than the 41% of adults in the United States who said the same about the country. Puerto Rico compares to other countries in Latin America with Venezuela (7%) in economic pessimism. In a survey conducted in all of Latin American countries, which was conducted between 2013-2014, found that in 89% of Puerto Ricans people were not satisfied with the way the government was handling things on the small island. As a result of this massive evacuation, there are more Puerto Ricans living throughout the mainland then there are on the island itself. As of 2013, approximately 5.1 million people live in the states compared to 3.5 million on the island. What makes this even more disturbing is that these results are not just from the outmigration but also the fact that the declining in fertilizations rates are also there. The average woman in Puerto Rico went down from 1.9 to 1.3 children during their lifetime since 2005 till this present moment. This effect will greatly decline the projected population for future years to come. It is expected to reach 3 million by the year 2050 and the economy is not expected to improve this alarming decrease.

In conclusion, the estimated outlook for the island future population is not a good one and with the economy at its lowest point ever, the overall picture seems difficult and instable. The fact that many of the islanders are fluent in the English language and many have family members who are living in the states already, it is obvious this will be a rout used by many to escape the down pour of our economical debacle. It is up to the government and the U.S government to put a controlled and steady input of ideas and changes that will prevent this from happening. We can only wait and be very precautious of what the future holds for our beautiful and proud island.

References:

Pew Research Center 15 Oct 2015; http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/10/14/puerto-ricans-leave-in-record-numbers-for-mainland-u-s/