Research Paper: West Africa Ebola Outbreak

Running head: Ebola outbreak in western Africa

Ebola outbreak in western Africa

Ebola outbreak in western Africa

Joseph Toole

Principles of Epidemiology

5 June 2016

Since the beginning of March 2014, West Africa experienced the largest Ebola outbreak in history. The unprecedented scale of the most recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa as of April 29, 2015, caused more than 10884 fatalities in 26277 cases that were reported. Prior to this outbreak, the virus had caused relatively smaller outbreaks the most devastating on being in a small village in Uganda known as Gulu where there were more than 425 deaths were reported in isolated cases in central Africa. The aim of this paper is to evaluate critically the various major themes surrounding the 2014 outbreak, including the epidemiological studies, the methods utilized, the approach to the study as well as the data collection and statistical measures and analysis. The report will compile a comprehensive database of estimates including the epidemiological parameters based on the data from previous outbreaks. The most recent outbreak has ironically provided an opportunity for understanding the patterns of transmission of EDV (Van Kerkhove, Bento, Mills, Ferguson, & Donnelly, 2015).

Before the intensification of the Ebola outbreak, the western African countries were making considerably remarkable progress economically. In Liberia and Sierra Leone, in particular, rapid economic development was clearly evident as the countries continued to fight and rise from years of civil strife and abject poverty. In the previous year, the two countries were ranked among the top ten countries in the world in GDP growth .guinea as a country had a relatively slower economic growth but with prospects of tremendous growth with the initiation of the expected simandou iron ore project on which major key investors in the iron mining industry had signed. The industry was however had hit by the outbreak since the prices began to drop considerably while mining plans were halted due to the Ebola outbreak. The effect of the project as described above has raised concerns about the profitability of these projects in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and a guinea, the IMF had prospected the GDP growth of the countries that year to be 11.3 percent, 5.9 percent, and 4.5 percent respectively. As a result of the outbreak, the IMF revised the growth rates to 8.0 percent, 2.5 percent, and 2.4 percent respectively (WHO, 2016).

In addition to the fatalities, the Ebola outbreak almost brought the economy of the affected West African nations to a standstill. The agricultural sector being the key economic sector in these nations was hard hit since the outbreak came during the planting season affecting the normal planting activities, therefore, diminishing the yields of the staple maize and rice crops. The prices of everyday consumer agricultural product rose by more than 150% pushing the nations to the brink of starvation and unparalleled inflation. The mining activities also decreased considerably following restrictions on non-essential and essential travel that were imposed during the outbreak. The reduction in the normal production economic activities led to declined revenues in terms of taxes, tariffs and customs duties. Following the need for more security and health issues, the government expenditure rose leading a large fiscal imbalance. Bans imposed on international travel also threatened to bring the tourism industry in these nations to a standstill (Sy, 2014).

The mean incubation time frame for the Ebola episode in West Africa has been assessed to be between 9–12 days. The scope of incubation periods observed in past EVD outbreaks bolsters the arrangement of contact following for 21 days taking after contact with an EVD persistent. An episode is authoritatively proclaimed over after no new cases are recognized 42 days (2 times the 21-day greatest brooding period) after the last EVD case is found (WHO, 2016).

The Ebola Zaire infection is the most deadly with a general assessed case casualty rate extending from 69 to 88%. The CFR of outbreaks because of Ebola Sudan infection extended from 53 to 69%, and the CFR of episodes because of Ebola Bundibugyo ran from 34 to 42%. For outbreak in West Africa because of Ebola Zaire, the evaluated CFR, as measured among affirmed and plausible cases with the authoritative result (recouped or deadly), is roughly 70% and differs little among the three most influenced nations (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. A second, disconnected EVD episode happened in Equatorial region, DRC between July and October 2014 bringing about 69 affirmed and likely cases with a CFR of 74%49. The CFR for Marburg is around 80% (WHO, 2016).

References

Van Kerkhove, M., Bento, A., Mills, H., Ferguson, N., & Donnelly, C. (2015). A review of epidemiological parameters from Ebola outbreaks to inform early public health decision-making. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.10

WHO | Origins of the 2014 Ebola epidemic.(2016). Who.int. Retrieved from http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/one-year-report/virus-origin/en/

Sy, A. (2014). Understanding the Economic Effects of the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa. Retrieved from http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/africa-in-focus/posts/2014/10/01-ebola-outbreak-west-africa-sy-copley