For Eng.Kelvin Only

Chapter 9: The Next Decade of HR— Trends, Technologies, and Recommendations

Overview

Row Henson

Particularly with respect to technology, the saying ―The only thing that is constant is change‖ requires this addendum: ―and the speed of change is increasing.‖ A critical part of the human resources (HR) business is to foresee rapid transformations in contributing factors such as demographics and technological innovation. Even more critical is HR‘s ability to strategically mobilize an organization to take timely advantage of opportunities to increase competitiveness.

No one can predict the future with accuracy. Yet, given past experience and current demographic and technological developments, we can gain insight into the future that becomes a valuable reference for the forward-thinking HR practitioner.

This chapter covers prospective changes over the next ten years in the workforce, technology, and global economic determinants as they impact human capital and the HR industry. Although we cannot separate the interdependencies of the workforce and technology, these two factors—the heartbeat and the toolset of the HR business today—appear in different but consecutive sections for clarity. This chapter also offers counsel to the HR professional of the future.

An Attitude of Adaptability

―It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.‖

—Charles Darwin [1]

To succeed as an HR professional in the next ten years, awareness and adaptability will be mandatory. If change is not only certain but also increasing in velocity, only a mindset of resourcefulness and flexibility will keep HR above water.

Out of sheer necessity, HR will continuously revolutionize its thought leadership. Instead of being blindsided by change, the nimble HR organization will ride the waves of internal and external forces to capitalize on opportunities and minimize negative effects of the unavoidable.

The years leading up to 2015 will bring new solutions to old problems and new, unforeseen problems accompanied by the need for innovation to address them. Solving problems generated by change will increase the challenges inherent in the HR function. Dramatic shifts are ahead, resulting from combined, interdependent transformations in the workforce and technology, and compounded by the way these interact with global economics to transform businesses. These shifts will drive HR‘s adaptation for survival.

As we will see, the next ten years will run the gamut, from the readily predictable to bizarre futuristic technologies that impact the workforce, HR, human resources information systems (HRIS), and world economics. For example, instead of asking, ―How do we become a better strategic influence?‖ HR professionals might be wondering how to categorize a worker whose brain, eyesight, and strength have been reinforced by biochips.

This will be the world in which HR must evolve and adapt.

[1] Darwin, C. The Origin of the Species. New York: Macmillan, 1962. (Originally

published 1859.)

The Changing Workforce

The makeup of the workforce is shifting in almost every aspect, and it will continue to do so. Significant alterations in the pool of available talent will occur both in measurable demographics and in the accompanying worker attitudes and preferences.

Demographics and the Diversification of Worker Groups

Three generations of completely diversified workers will make up the workforce over the next ten years: the baby boomers, Generation X-ers, and Generation Y-ers. Demographics—the statistical components of a given population—yield an objective worker profile going forward.

We can also form subjective conclusions based on trends. An understanding of the dynamics that have shaped each generation‘s perspectives will be a significant advantage for HR professionals. These generations represent the reservoir of talent upon which HR will draw: the workforce past, the workforce present, and the workforce future.

A decade-by-decade analysis reveals several age groups with distinct characteristics working together simultaneously. These groups were shaped long ago by historical influences, and both their concerns and their value to an organization evolve as they grow older. For HR to retain top performers and maximize worker productivity, each group will require different forms of management, compensation, training, and even technology. HR must also understand the needs of the new group emerging as those entering the workforce for the first time follow in the footsteps of employees currently in their twenties.

Those Born in 1950 and Earlier

These individuals, consisting of large numbers of baby boomers, grew up in a tough but stable post-war world.

[2] They worked hard and expected their sacrifices to pay off in

material and personal ways. Most employers of an older workforce benefit from this group‘s loyalty.

To enjoy the payoff from extensive overtime while they can, aging baby boomers often choose to retire early.

[3] However, the next ten years will also herald the emergence of

second careers. ―Many see retirement as a chance to start a new career, doing work they find more exciting, interesting or stimulating than the work they have done most of their lives.‖

[4]

Those born in 1950 and earlier will become HR‘s ―workforce past‖ in the next decade. To take advantage of the long-standing base of knowledge, expertise, and experience these senior workers represent, HR must leverage its capabilities as an excellent, qualified source of contingent workers (part-timers, temporaries, contractors, and consultants). Even more importantly, HR should groom them as mentors and recruiters for younger generations. Rapid workforce change coupled with emerging new talent makes knowledge retention an issue. Long-term employees who have been storage vessels for company history and knowledge are extremely valuable for passing on their repository of information.

Those Born Between 1951 and 1960

Workers in this era are all baby boomers, representing an extensive resource. They entered the workforce with the knowledge that they were special and they had a voice. They believed that they could change the world and that hard work would lead them to the top.

The next decade will bring a maturation of the skills of these individuals. HR will do well to carefully groom them and then usher them into managerial roles. Upcoming worker shortages will create a demand for their experience in middle management and leadership positions. This is the primary age group that will shepherd tomorrow‘s workers. HR is responsible for thorough succession planning that develops this emerging segment as effective leaders.

Those Born Between 1961 and 1970

Upon entering the workforce, this group faced a world tumbling down. With the dissolution of the nuclear family, many workers had learned to face challenges alone. They lacked the foundation of a conventional home environment and possessed no real hero figures.

Because many of them resist strong ties to a given establishment, workers in this group will require compelling reasons for continuing to work for the same employer.

Retention of top talent is crucial, and due to individualistic viewpoints of many in this age group, HR should build more flexibility and a larger array of choices into compensation and benefits programs. Work style and the structure of the work environment, along with learning and career planning opportunities, should also provide give-and-take.

Those Born in 1971 and Later

These workers seem to have found some stability, primarily based on self-reliance. Even more than those ten years ahead of them, they are tough-minded realists. Most of them are familiar with technology and open to the electronic economy of the future. Many belong to Generation Y, covered later in this section.

Conscientious career planning will benefit these individuals in the days ahead, and HR will do well to encourage their eagerness to gain knowledge and move forward. The task will be to direct their energy toward planning their careers along the lines of development and upward mobility within the organization. HR must leverage these young, talented workers by finding out what it is they want to do, then structuring a learning environment that retains them by helping them grow.

A Shifting Workforce Balance: What Demographics Indicate

The average age of the global workforce is increasing and will continue to do so over the next ten years. The baby boomers—by far the largest grouping—will, of course, age, some changing careers or remaining in the workforce later in life. Generation Y, representing a much larger group than Generation X, will provide a new wave of human capital. (See Figure 9.1.)

The rise in numbers of contingent workers has been and will continue to be overwhelming.

[5] Training managers to evaluate and manage workers logging variable

hours in unsupervised situations will become another challenging task for HR.

Telecommuting, where work is time-driven but no longer time-bound, is becoming more and more common. ―By 2004, fully 30 percent of the workforce will telecommute. Powerful networks will keep work teams in touch around the clock. Because of shifting demographics, workers of the future will be younger and older than before. They will live in different countries and have unorthodox work arrangements. Highly mobile, they will not be wedded to one company or career as the New Economy puts a premium on the literate, the empowered, and the master of technology. It is this workforce that Human Resources must manage and satisfy.‖

[6]

Figure 9.1: Shifts in the Numbers and Average Age Range of Workers.7

The number of women in the workforce is increasing at a faster rate than the number of men and will continue to do so until at least 2006, according to research by the Corporate Leadership Council. A related prediction is an increase in family-friendly benefits.

[8]

With respect to cultural diversity, minorities are representing an increasing percentage of workers, Corporate Leadership Council research states.

[9] It is reasonable to assume

that eventually the term ―minority‖ will disappear from the workforce. Cross-cultural communication will soon take on a life of its own.

We will see a noticeable shift to outsourcing in the next five years. As is already occurring with manufacturing, organizations will rapidly move intellectual jobs to the lowest-cost providers. Education improvements in countries like India, Poland, and China will make them low-cost producers. (We expand on this topic later in the section entitled ―Impact of the Global Economy.‖)

Some predict that the dominant language by 2050 will be Chinese. Yet there is another language of a very different, futuristic kind vying for attention: the language of

genomics. Genetic code will soon transform the economy and society. [10]

We will address this topic later in this chapter in the discussion of the radical changes to be introduced by technology.

Numerous workers today have family for whom they are responsible, whether it be a spouse, children, parents, or grandparents. The number of children per family will decline, but there will be no decline in the divorce rate. There will continue to be large numbers of single people in the workforce.

For years HR has worked with the baby boomer ―live-to-work‖ mentality. While the Generation X mindset has been ―work to live,‖ the primary emphasis of the soon-to-be workers of Generation Y will be work/life balance itself. Creating options for work/life balance will be pivotal to retaining an employer of choice in the next ten years.

According to the Corporate Leadership Council, ―Maintaining an appropriate work/life balance is currently an integral element of being an employee of choice; of Fortune‘s ‗100 Best Companies to Work For‘ eighty-nine offer some sort of flexible working options.‖ Trends indicate that ―work-life balance initiatives will continue to grow although their emphasis may shift slightly for the future ‗employer of choice‘.‖

[11]

Competition for a Diminishing Workforce

The rate at which the world population is growing is on the decline. (See Figure 9.2.) Workforce growth rates are likewise decreasing, and will do so from now until 2020.

[12]

―In Europe by 2010 older workers (55–64) will make up a greater percentage of the workforce than younger workers (20–29).‖

[13] Overall, we can foresee a drop in the

number of workers, accompanied by a decline in the numbers of exemplary performers. Competition for top talent will therefore become more and more aggressive.

[14]

Figure 9.2: World Population Growth Rate: 1950—2050.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Database, May 10, 2000.

Over the next decade, these older workers will be retiring or changing careers, thus moving out of the mainstream workforce. Baby boomers in particular will make an impact as they change careers for less responsibility-intensive occupations, lessen their involvement in their careers, or leave the workforce entirely. Technologically induced job creation exceeds, and will continue to exceed, workforce growth. By 2008, we‘ll face a shortage of ten million workers.

[15]

It was only twenty-five years ago when workers would spend their entire careers with a single employer. In some industries and professions today, it is remarkable for an employer to retain an employee for two or more years. Moving from the Industrial Age to the Knowledge Age has altered the attributes HR looks for in the ideal worker and what workers want in their work environment.

Instead of seeking long-term careers with stable employers, college graduates now choose employers who will give them the most knowledge the quickest. These graduates also require flexible compensation, a fantastic work culture, and choices for work/life balance to suit their individual lifestyles.

[16] ―The movement of human capital

around the world will be influenced by lifestyle and economic growth areas, regardless of borders, and that‘s a new phenomenon of the future.‖

[17]

The HR practitioner needs to be a relentless, ever-vigilant competitor in the global war for talent. While job seekers will have increasing numbers of options, employers will struggle to design strategies to address the attraction and retention dilemma. ―For every new member added to the workforce, 2.6 new jobs will be created between 2003 and 2010, Interbiznet predicts.‖

[18]

The war for talent is clearly an ever-present battle. [19]

It will become more and more ferocious in the knowledge economy, where the focus is shifted from tangible assets to intangibles such as patents and people. ―We competed on quality in the 1970s, time in the 1980s, and information systems in the 1990s. In this decade we will take on the last critical dimension of competitive advantage: We will learn to compete through talent. Not just for talent—through talent.‖

[20]

Global markets will increase the ferocity of the war for talent. For example, according to futurist James Canton, ―For the first time in the United States, there‘s a brain drain of human capital going to Singapore and Europe for genomics research particularly around stem cells.‖

[21] It is likely that the brain drain Canton referred to will impact all

jobs and professions, not just genomics research. He also stated that ―human capital will be attracted to fast-growth, high-tech centers that will be located in Africa, South America, and Asia, and not just Europe and the United States.‖

[22]

The successful HR department of the future will leverage existing talent via succession planning and training. Proactively and aggressively securing the best people will also be important. Top performers and headcount in general will both be in high demand.

Strategies for Attracting and Retaining Employees of the Future

While HR policies and procedures will continue as grassroots HR functions, far more important will be the innovation and flexibility required to achieve and perpetuate employer-of-choice status. In light of the significant variations among generations and age groups, the HR practitioner will require know-how and insight when it comes to incentivizing, training, and creating customizable compensation packages. Making meaningful connections with each group will be critical for attraction, retention, and organizational productivity.

What will drive the employer selection process? In general, the diversified workforce of the next decade will come to work for you and stay working for you on the basis of a number of characteristics, described below.

Access to Knowledge and Technology in a Learning Environment

Top talent will not settle for working with antiquated technologies. As technology change gains momentum, an employer of choice must keep pace. The majority of desirable workers are upwardly mobile, seeking an environment of learning where they

can enhance and develop their expertise, learn new skills, and take on additional responsibilities.

Such growth is also attractive because it increases the employee‘s earning power and future marketability. According to Walker Information, just 45 percent of employees believe that their companies care about developing people for long-term careers, while 31 percent believe they do not.

[23]

People want access to knowledge. Be prepared—as you give them this access, they will want more. Workers across the globe, and Generation Y-ers in particular, are accustomed to finding close to anything they want at any time via the Internet.

Participatory Management

The worker of the future requires a voice. Organizational hierarchies have already begun to flatten and will continue to do so. Across the board, all workers of the future will desire to participate in company decision making and will prefer to be intensely involved in any form of organizational change.

[24]

Total Compensation

The benefit plans of twenty-five years ago were stringent, uniform, and straightforward: everyone had the same health insurance and same retirement plan. The successful HR department of the future will further advance the existing flexible benefits environment to make customization available across all compensation, not just benefits.

Employees will work when and how they need to work, and a company will determine a worker‘s value according to a composite. Salaries will be defined in terms of compensation. For example, an organization might value a worker at $100,000 yearly. Payment of that amount will be discretionary, within the bounds of legality. Younger employees might include additional education in their compensation. A married employee might take some of it in childcare. Some might want parental care, deferred compensation, or early retirement. Employees will be able to take more vacation one year than another.

Flexibility in forms of compensation will be a big motivator for choosing an employer in the future. As a general rule, salaries won‘t necessarily be increasing, but will instead become more variable based on employee lifestyle. Just as we saw the evolution of flexible benefits in the 1970s and 1980s, that kind of flexibility will cover the entire spectrum of compensation in the years ahead.

An Attractive Corporate Culture

An organization attracts those who agree with the tenets of its culture. HR must carefully evaluate culture-related decisions as they pertain to an organization‘s talent requirements, as well as the needs and wants of available workers of the future. This is

no small feat, as it includes baby boomers, Generation X-ers, and the up-and-coming workforce from Generation Y. All workers want to be influential in company decision making.

[25]

The more clearly HR defines and propagates corporate culture across all mediums, the easier it will be to attract like-minded employees. Culture will also continue to be a key identifier for customers and suppliers. A successful organization builds a widely recognizable culture that values and treats people as primary assets and seeks employee input. As keepers of the corporate culture, HR professionals take responsibility for providing a sense of purpose, accommodating and celebrating diversity, and allowing active participation in company decisions by giving employees a voice. The extent to which an organization provides a learning environment also contributes to corporate culture, as does work/_life balance.

[26]

Addressing work/life balance will require flexibility in the years to come. Variations in marital status, family situations, and values among workers will demand increasing numbers of choices for adjusting this balance, because one size does not fit all.

HR has an important role to play in creating work practices for a diverse work population. Telecommuting, flextime, and part-time options, as well as PCs and entire home offices furnished by employers, are now all supported by technology that allows work to be done and decisions to be made from anywhere, any time. Therefore, HR practitioners should be creative when addressing work/life balance. Why not innovate by establishing a temporary or part-time environment in which the fifty-plus population will want to work? What about giving the new mom or dad opportunities to balance hours between work and home? Exhibit 9.1 sums up past and future characteristics of the worker, the employer, and HR practices.

A New Wave: Generation Y

When it comes to the talent shortage, will it be Generation Y to the rescue? This new wave of workers, born in 1978 and later and numbering approximately sixty million, will be entering the workforce in the next decade.

Some of them have already begun to work, following on the heels of Generation X, which is composed of those born between 1965 and 1977 and is less than one-third the size of Generation Y. Generation Y-ers are sometimes referred to as Echo Boomers or the Millennium Generation.

[27] While Generation Y mainly represents the offspring of the

seventy-two million baby boomers, their values and preferences are far different from their parents‘. It will be HR‘s task to understand their perspective.

In the United States alone, one out of every four Generation Y-ers lives in a single- parent home, and 75 percent have working mothers. One-third of this diverse group is not Caucasian.

[28]

Research indicates Generation Y-ers will write their own rules. [29]

They anticipate having careers and plan for work/life balance and home ownership, some even while in their teens.

[30] A suitable career is more important to Generation Y-ers than simply

finding a job, and for an overwhelming majority of them, the rewards of job satisfaction take higher priority than monetary returns.

[31]

Exhibit 9.1: The Transformation of Key HR Influences.

The Worker

Past Characteristics Future Characteristics

Male Female

Age 46 Age 36

Married, two children Divorced

Baby boomer Generation X/Generation Y

Career-oriented, loyal Work/life balance–focused

Stable Mobile

Ten years with one employer Three years with one employer

Hierarchically organized Organized by teams

The Employer

Past Characteristics Future Characteristics

Local Global

Office Virtual

Stable Nimble

Profitable Competitive

Mechanized Innovative

Hierarchical Flat

Caretaker ROI

Blue-collar compliance Corporate governance

HR Practices

Past Characteristics Future Characteristics

Local practices Global practices

Hierarchical organizations Flattened organizations

Past Characteristics Future Characteristics

Jobs/positions Self-directed teams

Points Broadbands

Skills Core competencies

Salary Total compensation

Tactical Strategic

Data/information Knowledge/intelligence

Data collection/reporting Reporting/forecasting

Source: PeopleSoft, Inc.

Familiarity with Technology and Rapid Change

HR will have Generation Y-ers entering the world of work who have never lived in a world without technology. Modern advancements such as instant messaging, DVDs, and cell phones are second nature to the majority within this group. Some were using computers in kindergarten and earlier.

Reinforcing familiarity with the electronic world is the active implementation of technology programs in schools. These initiatives give youth a running start with applying technology to the world of education and work.

―We‘ve rapidly been exiting what could be described as a linear culture—a world where life, communication and education moved in streams, in sequence and in a structured order. That culture is being replaced by a non-linear culture, a faster-paced, more random and uncertain world where we work, live, love and learn.‖

[32]

The Generation Y world is non-linear, running at a rapid pace and full of limitless stimuli. Generation Y-ers are accustomed to numerous concurrent sources of information. ―Our culture has conditioned them to expect speed and change.‖

[33]

Many Generation Y-ers seem to have it all as they prepare more effectively than any other generation that has to enter the workforce. Yet a number of them will lack skills HR has taken for granted in the talent pool.

A Need for Training

While Generation Y can help fill the job deficit, many will need training in specific competencies, ethics, and other work skills. While many Generation Y-ers grow up in technology-savvy environments, their comfort level with technology for academic and personal uses does not always translate smoothly to the world of work.

―. . . Most high-school graduates simply lack the literacy and numeracy skills necessary to thrive in the technology-based knowledge society. The number of students pursuing and obtaining degrees in computer science and other information technology fields is plummeting. And not coincidentally, high-tech employers from Silicon Valley to NASA to government intelligence agencies are scrambling to find homegrown talent.‖

[34]

Once they gain critical skills, the independent, individualistic, change-oriented Generation Y-ers should thrive in the world of mobile knowledge workers, role-based portals, personalization, and learning and travel opportunities.

―In an age of information and innovation, that means children must be grounded in timeless truths but prepared for constant change. Formal learning can no longer be confined to the first eighteen or twenty-one years of life. Instead, learning must become a part of life, as constant as change itself. Only those individuals, businesses, and nations capable of coping with this change and adapting to it will be able to flourish in the 21st century.‖

[35]

Many workers today, age notwithstanding, share some Generation Y traits. In general, employees will become increasingly selective about where they work, what tasks they perform, and the kinds of compensation they receive. Generation Y challenges the status quo, and will also challenge HR in the areas of corporate culture, loyalty, recruitment, and retention.

Increasing Complexities in the Legal and Regulatory Arena

Legal and regulatory issues were related primarily to payroll, benefits, or diversity in the past. For many years HR has been involved in compliance around such regulations as the Occupational Safety and Health Act (OSHA), Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), and Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPAA). These are examples of regulations specific to the United States, and comparable laws extend throughout the world. Country-specific rules and regulations, Workers‘ Compensation issues, payroll tax filing and reporting, and more all represent responsibilities that will continue as basic HR functions.

However, the Enron debacle expanded HR‘s function to include responsibility for compliance in the executive ranks. There is a plethora of new rules focusing on corporate governance and accountability for upper management. The United States‘ Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) is a case in point. While many consider SOX to be primarily financially oriented, HR must track reporting hierarchies, authority, roles, responsibilities, positions, and titles. Compliance with SOX also means tightened requirements and increased levels of detail and accuracy in upper management reports. HR must now work closely with upper management to conduct strict tracking and sign-off procedures.

Corporate malfeasance is a global phenomenon, and SOX is only one country‘s reaction. Most importantly, SOX and similar acts are not the end of regulation at the

executive level. As the legal and regulatory police—both blue collar and corporate—HR can expect additional legislation along similar lines in the future.

The need for vigilance will also increase due to globalization, which multiplies the variety and number of compliance areas. Each country or region has different laws. As we will see in the next section on technology, the role-based nature of a portal is very effective for delineating laws and regulations that apply to a specific worker in any given region.

[2] Those of the baby boomer generation, 72 million strong, were born between 1946

and 1964.

[3] In her article ―2020: A Look at HR Technology in the Next 20 Years,‖ PeopleSoft

fellow Row Henson included a discussion of changes in the workforce. IHRIM Journal, June 2000, IV(2), pp. 8–12.

[4] Moore, D. [www.dianemoore.com]. ―Baby boomers redefining their ‗golden years.‘‖

Toronto Star, November 4, 2003.

[5] Joseph H. Boyett of Boyett & Associates supports this assertion with respect to the

United States in his discussion of workforce trends at www2.msstate.edu/~dd1/Boyett.htm.

[6] Henson, R. ―Human Resources in 2020: Managing the Bionic Workforce.‖ Benefits &

Compensation Solutions, 2001.

[8] ―Attracting and Retaining Your Human Assets: A Look at the Recruiting Dilemma.‖ A

PeopleSoft, Inc., white paper. Pleasanton, CA: PeopleSoft, November 2000, p. 5.

[9] Forecasting the U.S. Workforce and Workplace of the Future. Corporate Leadership

Council, Literature Review. Washington, DC: Corporate Executive Board, March 1999, p. 6.

[10] Ibid., p. 5.

[11] ―Genomics will Transform Economy and Society.‖ The Conference Board of

Canada, news release, November 21, 2003. Juan Enriquez, chairman and CEO of Biotechonomy and former director of the Life Sciences Project at Harvard Business School, emphasized that human capital is of primary importance in the knowledge economy. Genomics (the language of genetic code) will have a revolutionary impact on numerous industries. The biggest future challenge will be regulation.

[12] The Employer of Choice of the Future. Corporate Leadership Council, Literature

Review. Washington, DC: Corporate Executive Board, November 2000, p. 7.

[13] Lange, M. ―Human Capital Management: Strategies and Technology for

Competitive Advantage.‖ Heads Count: An Anthology for the Competitive Enterprise. Pleasanton, CA: PeopleSoft Inc., 2003, p. 337. The book, published by PeopleSoft with the assistance of printer/binder Edwards Brothers, Inc., combines articles from prominent thought leaders in HR disciplines. Mark Lange‘s article provides this and other related statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and The Towers Perrin Talent Report 2001.

[14] The Employer of Choice of the Future, Corporate Leadership Council, p. 4.

[15] Henson, R. ―HR in the 21st Century: Challenges and Opportunities.‖ Heads Count:

An Anthology for the Competitive Enterprise. Pleasanton, CA: PeopleSoft, Inc., 2003, p. 257.

[16] Lange, M. ―Human Capital Management: Strategies and Technology for

Competitive Advantage,‖ p. 337. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and The Towers Perrin Talent Report 2001.

[17] Henson, R. ―2020: A Look at HR Technology in the Next 20 Years.‖

[18] Futurist James Canton, Ph.D., as interviewed by PeopleSoft fellow Row Henson,

January 21, 2004.

[19] Future Labor Market Trends. Corporate Leadership Council, Literature Key Findings.

Washington, DC: Corporate Executive Board, May 2003, p. 1.

[20] Lange, M. ―Human Capital Management: Strategies and Technology for

Competitive Advantage,‖ p. 337. Lange refers to a survey by McKinsey & Co. (The War for Talent).

[21] Lange, M. ―Human Capital Management: Strategies and Technology for

Competitive Advantage,‖ p. 355.

[22] Futurist James Canton, Ph.D., as interviewed by PeopleSoft fellow Row Henson,

January 21, 2004.

[23] Ibid.

[24] Walker Information. The Walker Loyalty Report: Loyalty and Ethics in the

Workplace. September 2003. Statistic cited in M. Lange, ―Human Capital Management: Strategies and Technology for Competitive Advantage,‖ p. 339.

[25] Henson, R. ―HR in the 21st Century: Challenges and Opportunities,‖ p. 253.

[26] Ibid.

[27] Ibid.

[28] ―Generation Y.‖ BusinessWeek Online, BusinessWeek magazine cover story.

www.businessweek.com/1999/99_07/b3616001.htm]. February 15, 1999.

[29] Ibid.

[30] Futurist James Canton, Ph.D., as interviewed by PeopleSoft fellow Row Henson,

January 21, 2004.

[31] Ibid.

[32] Dunne, N. ―The New Kid in Town.‖ Financial Times, August 1, 2003.

[33] Piotrowski, T. ―Connect the Dots.‖ Center for Parent/Youth Understanding (CPYU).

[www.cpyu.org/pageview.asp?pageid=8121]

[34] Ibid.

[35] ―About Hudson‘s Beyond Workforce 2020.‖ Hudson Institute.

[www.beyondworkforce2020.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=about_detail]

The Impact of Technological Innovation

Technological change has shaped HR dramatically over the years, and will continue to do so at increasing speeds. Possibilities we can hardly imagine today might well be commonplace by 2010.

Technology: Building Momentum

Like a jumbo airliner gathering speed as it takes off from the runway, technology has been changing faster and faster—and there‘s no end in sight. History tells part of the story, and developments waiting in the wings indicate a quickening of technological change with each generation. If for twenty-five years we used the mainframe and in the next ten years jumped to client/server architecture, only to find it replaced by Internet applications, what‘s next? Will every new technology have half the shelf life of the last one?

Developments came slowly at first. The mainframe era lasted close to twenty-five years before the introduction of dumb terminals and the mid-sized computer. These early systems were mainly batch-oriented, and HR leveraged them for certain financial functions such as payroll to help ease the burden of routine administration activities. The application software industry in itself was still in its infancy in the late 1960s, but as the personal computer (PC) gave rise to client/server architecture, HR soon began to realize the benefits of computerization. Networked systems and intranet/_Internet

applications yielded vast benefits in the form of self-service, analytics, and other collaborative functions.

HR processes readily evolved as technology ramped up, and innovative applications from the HRMS community appeared to fill HR‘s demand for specialized advancements in such areas as e-recruiting and e-performance applications. The goal: automating the end-to-end HR business process to drive productivity through HCM.

The visual portrayal of paradigm shifts in technology in Figure 9.3 shows how each leading technology is maximally useful for a short period before its peak drops off as another technology moves in to replace it.

Figure 9.3: Technology Marches Onward.36

The HR Technologist

During the host era, the primary user of HR and all other systems was the IT professional. Technology evolved, and the primary user during the client/server era became the departmental user—in HR‘s case, it became HR staff. As more and more organizations move to the Internet economy, for the first time HR technology is appearing on the desktop of every employee.

Technology is now an integral part of any business and will be increasingly indispensable over the next decade. The HR practitioner therefore must become a technologist to effectively leverage innovation and bring about measurable productivity improvements from it. Just as an engineer, CIO, or operations manager wields technology as a regular component of the job, to thrive in tomorrow‘s corporate world HR must regard technology as second nature, a tool of the trade. From becoming a formidable contender in the war for talent to leveraging analytics that help drive corporate strategy, HR professionals of the future must fully understand and actively exploit technological advancements to be competitive.

Rise of the Knowledge Worker

―Through 2007, progressive enterprises will formalize strategic planning, architecture, standardization, platforms, and support structures, resulting in a cohesive set of enterprise-wide application and infrastructure services. A critical subset of these infrastructure services will target knowledge workers and organizational productivity needs.‖

[37] Architecture efforts around knowledge workers are predicted to mature

through 2007. [38]

With the Internet as the foundational delivery mechanism for company information, HR systems will expand to embrace participation by every employee. Technology will enable employees to own larger and larger portions of the HR process as portals and related collaborative systems become integral to every HR infrastructure.

Technology is under continuous transformation, becoming smarter, cheaper, easier to use, and less structured. As this occurs, the working environment will also evolve to become more and more about the access of knowledge. We are moving into an information-intensive world where knowledge is accessible by all and continuous learning and knowledge retention are critical.

Studies by the Hudson Institute underscore the influence of the Knowledge Era on the workforce. ―Consider how 20th-century conceptions of career and time have already begun to collapse. Yesterday, workers in industrial economies went to school from the age of 5 to 18, earned vocational certificates or degrees from 19 to 25, paid their dues from 25 to 35, rose through the ranks from 35 to 50, ascended to senior levels of management and business ownership from 50 to 65, and then retired. But in a knowledge-based society, workers will go to school throughout their careers, rise and fall within multiple organizations, work in virtual offices for virtual organizations, and be productive well beyond the age of 65.‖

[39]

Highly structured data environments of the past have given workers only a small percentage of the knowledge that they actually need for optimization. The available knowledge has been segregated and scattered across written materials, data-storage systems, information accessible electronically, and third-party sources.

The Internet, coupled with supporting technologies such as sophisticated document management systems and telephony, now opens the door to accessing unstructured data. We‘re adding voice clips, text, and more to make information not only acceptable but easily digestible.

Designing portals that are increasingly intelligent will result in more advanced use of the Internet, thus boosting the agility of the knowledge worker. For example, the more often a user interacts online with Amazon.com, the more the site ―knows‖ about that person. With every order, Amazon.com‘s system learns more about a person‘s style, tastes, and preferences, making correlations between past purchases and available

merchandise. The system itself suggests new items to purchase and takes advantage of cross-selling opportunities without human intervention.

The same will be true of HR systems. The more people use online information via a portal, the more data portal systems will gather about how well various types of individuals digest that information. Portals that incorporate languages such as XML and intelligent self-service will identify for HR professionals whether a person is left- or right- brained, whether HR should deliver training interactively or establish a mentoring program, what kind of incentives are appropriate for workers in a given country and cultural environment, and so on.

Knowledge workers will have fingertip access to anything they need to do their jobs. Material will be customized and digestible for each individual in the form of better, cheaper, faster, and easier technology as HR pushes out role-based information in precisely the right way. Intelligent self-service and portals will provide just-in-time knowledge in a form that fits a given person‘s work style.

As we will see later in the chapter, future technologies resulting from cognitive science and studies of the human brain will bring enhancements to the workforce that reshape the way HR addresses training and learning for the knowledge worker.

[40]

The Near Future in Technology

As we step into the technology of the future, our view encompasses what‘s just around the corner: more widespread use of collaborative technologies and the interchangeability of collaborative tools. Ubiquitous computing leads us to the edge of what we can currently grasp.

The Collaborative, Connected Enterprise

The technology of the future will be both collaborative and connected. We can see the first hints of this as greater numbers of companies implement pure-Internet systems that allow collaboration among employees, customers, and suppliers.

Increasingly widespread use of intelligent self-service is imminent. Also called smart self-service, this indispensable collaborative HR tool—best administered through a portal—integrates content and analytics and filters information based on a user‘s role. The result is secure access to material as well as improved decision making. The portal recognizes an individual‘s role, work styles, and preferences and supplies quick access to material required for task completion.

Intelligent self-service via an employee portal means just-in-time information delivery to the knowledge worker. Portal delivery will become increasingly personalized and customizable, furthering training initiatives via intuitive learning.

The near future will also bring increased use of HR scorecards that are coupled with workforce analytics and decision trees. A convergent business model will drive transaction processing, and we‘ll be seeing increases in process automation and the use of online analytical processing (OLAP) for processing raw data.

Collaborative systems turn data into organizational intelligence so many people can work together on a common task, problem, or issue. Collaboration integrates both internal and third-party content, transactions, and analytics with back-office applications. The entire collaborative enterprise is connected via an intranet or the Internet. HR applications specifically designed for collaboration are XML-based for Internet systems integration. Ideally, information is available company-wide through a portal that maintains data security by revealing only the material authorized by a user‘s role upon sign-on. To be effective, collaborative systems draw data from a single location: a data warehouse that provides timely, accurate information to all users.

The collaborative, connected enterprise of the future will provide the workforce with higher and higher percentages of all available knowledge in increasingly palatable, individualized forms. As a result, we will see better and more rapid decision making across those organizations whose HR departments are wielding collaborative technology effectively.

Interchangeability of Devices

The future will undoubtedly bring faster and cheaper access to accurate real-time HR information. Data access tools will be interchangeable for HR staff and the rest of the workforce. We can already see this happening as innovative enhancements to telephony, video, email, and fax are making collaboration easier and increasingly convenient. These and other communication tools are blending to the point where it is increasingly simple to convert one to the other.

For example, advancements in wireless technology will soon integrate phone, handhelds such as personal digital assistants (PDAs), and personal computers. The mobile communication world will encompass a wider and wider range of computing devices and capabilities. Voice activation and automated answers will be increasingly sophisticated to the point that they will be a more acceptable customer service offering.

Systems turn voice into text and convert text to knowledge that is made available across networks. Interactive media makes collaboration almost second nature.

The worker of the future will be able to work anywhere, any time—and on any device. This represents both good news and bad news for the HR professional. Employees interested in true work/life balance will have more options and more control. They‘ll be able to work where it‘s convenient for them to work, and strongly motivated employees can become maximally efficient. For example, a two-hour commute will translate into two hours spent working from home or at another convenient location, and if one

happens to lack access to electricity or wired networks, satellite will be an easy alternative.

The bad news is that the workaholic will now have access to work twenty-four hours a day. There are always individuals who are not good at balancing work and day-to-day life. When people are able to work all the time, some workers will abuse the situation and suffer from burnout. Other bad news comes in the form of unexpected workloads for HR because employees can work at varying times. This means no quiet time for HR anymore.

As collaborative options meld, we will see the resulting ubiquitous access create great improvements in employee effectiveness and efficiency. Ubiquitous computing will blur the boundaries we now see as walls and lead the way toward startling developments in the future.

Bizarre But Likely: Radical Changes

In the past, people made things in a manufacturing-centric economy. Now people service things and other people in today‘s knowledge-centric economy.

[41] As the

dynamics of the Knowledge Age point toward increasing emphasis on human capital, we face the likelihood of technologically enhanced humans and biologically enhanced robotics—perhaps not in the coming decade, but likely before we‘re prepared. Unfortunately, people can only see technology as far out as they can touch it.

The ongoing challenge for HR will be balancing the use of technologies with the variability inherent in the human element.

[42] As lines become blurred, HR must also

distinguish between the two.

In Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Technology Will Transform Business in the 21st Century, Dr. James Canton combines research and little-known facts of the technologically feasible with imaginative exploration of future realities. Founder of the Institute of Global Futures,

[43] Canton describes what he calls the four Power Tools that

together will drive future change: computers, networks, biotech, and nanotech. [44]

Computers [45]

Computers of the future will become intelligent agents that make decisions and deliver information to workers on demand. Reduced in size, systems will be far more powerful, intuitive, and interactive.

Canton even sees the computer becoming a close model of the human brain.

Computers already dwarf the efficiencies of human-run processes. Onboard computers manage aircraft flights and recommend action in threatening conditions. Computerized data mining and analytic functions recommend online purchases and help make business decisions. The list goes on. Reliance on computers to manage and

improve on functions customarily performed by humans will increase as computers provide valued extensions of human faculties and boost organizational productivity.

The computer-in-a-shoe and a mouse that reads emotions already exist. By 2015, some scientists predict that microchips will be embedded not only in appliances, but in clothes and human hearts and brains. It‘s possible that in many instances computers will think with and for people. The highly functional computers of the future—robots—will be able to see, hear, smell, taste, touch, and talk. Computers are beginning to embody the dream of artificial intelligence.

[46]

Software is critical in and of itself. ―Software may be the digital cognitive glue that makes this emerging intelligent infrastructure of commerce work. It means now that what I can do as a human, I can do so much more with the right software tied to the right infrastructure that‘s tied to the right on-demand global supply chain for products or services.‖

[47]

Cognitive software can help maximize the capabilities and productivity of a workforce increasingly limited in numbers.

[48] ―The next generation of cognitive software will help

us make decisions faster, make connections faster, and build networks and supply chains. The task will be to enable companies to build tools so human beings can multiply their capability set. That change will occur by 2020.‖

[49] Transformations in

cognitive software will bring an additional HR challenge: integrating the technology in a way that empowers, instead of threatens, workers.

Networks [50]

Earlier we mentioned the upcoming interchangeability of telephony, video, email, and fax. The convergence of the Internet, digital TV, and various wireless communication devices will incorporate communication technologies into a network of networks that will transform the way the world does business.

This vibrant network system is already in the making. Every ninety days, the size of the Internet doubles, and by 2005 more than one billion people will have online access. Wide ranges of consumers on the Internet will provide expanded opportunities for e- business. The highly efficient virtual supply chains of e-business will connect the manufacturing supply chain right to the customer or end user. As early as 2005, e- business might be generating in excess of $2 trillion in revenues around the globe.

[51]

Human capital strategists must balance the corporation‘s struggle to compete in e- business with the basic human need for rest, coupled with computers‘ tireless capability of working nonstop.

[52]

Biotech [53]

The revolutionary manipulation of DNA to redefine human life, health, and science, biotech uses the microchip to advance gene research. The biotechnology industry

creates biochips, which resemble the integrated circuits of a PC but incorporate portions of DNA. Biochips placed in analytical instrumentation sharply reduce the time and costs involved in biochemical experimentation.

As scientists increase their understanding of the human genome, affordable analytic tools based on biochips will help physicians predict, diagnose, and custom-treat illnesses. The computer world will boost translation of human genetics to make people healthier and increase life expectancy. We will see smart drugs, implants and innovative medical devices, and bio-engineered food as better medical care becomes commonplace.

[54]

The HR practitioner must be prepared for the possibilities of an artificially enhanced workforce. ―Cognitive science and HR have not become friends, and part of the reason they haven‘t become friends is that we have not invested in this science and know very little about it,‖ stated Canton in an interview. ―Some people may be enhanced in the future by having actual devices at the nano scale embedded in their brains to give them advanced capabilities they need for their jobs.‖ Such capabilities might include total recall memory or the ability to download and learn several spoken languages in an afternoon. However, given advanced future research surrounding cognitive science and the human brain, ―We may be able to create new kinds of learning, human capital enhancement tools, and education to help people acquire the same types of capabilities without having to have invasive or synthetic augmentation.‖

[55]

Nanotech [6]

The fourth of Canton‘s Power Tools, nanotechnology refers to extremely minute, atomic-level engineering. To grasp this radical, hardly imaginable phenomenon, consider television‘s Star Trek, in which the mechanical race called Borg powers and controls drones.

Industry leaders such as IBM, Lucent, and Sun, in company with scientists from well- respected institutions—MIT, Cal Tech, and NASA, for example—apply extensive resources toward nanotechnology. Their efforts to develop equipment one-thousandth of the diameter of a human hair might one day result in injecting machines into the bloodstream for such purposes as attacking cancer cells. These infinitesimal machines could also rearrange atoms to create food, energy, steel, and water.

[57]

Is this science fiction? After all, it was only a little more than one hundred years ago when Henry Ford first introduced his horseless carriage to the world in 1896. In light of technology‘s quantum leaps in the last forty years, the ideas outlined from Canton‘s work—as well as numerous others‘ predictions—could easily become day-to-day reality.

[58] Our focus on the next decade of HR points to awareness and preparedness,

while at the same time we continue to deal effectively with concrete issues we face in the present.

Security Redefined

Technology is transforming and perfecting itself, taking on a life of its own. Paradoxically, as much as we desire to be connected, we‘re also creating an entire body of technology simply to help us remain separate. The Internet in particular has given rise to the concept of data privacy. Powerful steps are being taken in the security space to make sure people, organizations, and political entities only reach information they have the right to see. From an international standpoint, privacy is an extremely complex issue.

[59]

Certainly security will continue to be an issue—for a while. By 2015, however, computing will be so ubiquitous that security will almost become a non-issue due to its impossibility. Implications for HR are again in the form of both good news and bad news. The good news is that, as an HR professional, you will have access to almost limitless information about everything. The bad news is that others will also have access to a lot of information about you and your company.

[37] Ibid.

[38] This illustration extrapolates from a drawing on p. 19 of Inside the Tornado by

Geoffrey A. Moore (New York: HarperCollins, 1995). Mr. Moore‘s drawing shows the first two of the three bell-shaped curves.

[39] Gotta, M. ―Knowledge Worker Infrastructure: FAQs.‖ Meta Group, Delta 2681,

December 22, 2003.

[40] Gotta, M. Meta Group, May 2004.

[41] ―About Hudson‘s Beyond Workforce 2020.‖

[www.beyondworkforce_2020.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=about_detail]

[42] Futurist James Canton, Ph.D., as interviewed by PeopleSoft fellow Row Henson,

January 21, 2004.

[43] Lev, B. ―Intangibles: Management, Measurement, and Reporting.‖ The Brookings

Institution, June 30, 2001.

[44] Stambaugh, B. ―Hard Systems, Soft Systems: New Challenges for Twenty-First

Century HR Systems, Stakeholders, and Vendors.‖ Heads Count: An Anthology for the Competitive Enterprise. Pleasanton, CA: PeopleSoft, Inc., 2003, p. 108.

[45] The Institute for Global Futures website is located at www.future_guru.com.

[46] Canton, J. Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Technology Will Transform Business

in the 21st Century. Carlsbad, CA: Hay House, Inc., 1999, pp. 9–13. The Power Tools

discussion also incorporates elements from Henson‘s article ―2020: A Look at HR Technology in the Next 20 Years.‖

[47] The material in this section is taken from Row Henson, ―2020: A Look at HR

Technology in the Next 20 Years,‖ as well as Row Henson‘s book review ―Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Technology Will Transform Business in the 21st Century, by James Canton, Ph.D.‖ (IHRIM Link, April/May 2000, pp. 62–63.) Canton covers this topic on p. 11 of Technofutures.

[48] Ibid.

[49] Futurist James Canton, Ph.D., as interviewed by PeopleSoft fellow Row Henson,

January 21, 2004.

[50] Ibid.

[51] Ibid.

[52] Henson addresses this material in ―2020: A Look at HR Technology in the Next 20

Years‖ and the book review ―Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Technology Will Transform Business in the 21st Century, by James Canton, Ph.D.‖ Canton covers this topic on pp. 11–12 of Technofutures.

[53] Ibid.

[54] Henson also addresses this in ―Human Resources in 2020: Managing the Bionic

Workforce.‖

[55] Henson addresses this material in ―2020: A Look at HR Technology in the Next 20

Years‖ and the book review ―Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Technology Will Transform Business in the 21st Century, by James Canton, Ph.D.‖ Canton covers this topic on p. 12 of Technofutures.

[6] Ibid.

[57] Futurist James Canton, Ph.D., as interviewed by PeopleSoft fellow Row Henson,

January 21, 2004.

[58] Henson addresses this material in ―2020: A Look at HR Technology in the Next 20

Years‖ and the book review ―Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Technology Will Transform Business in the 21st Century, by James Canton, Ph.D.‖ Canton covers this topic on p. 13 of Technofutures.

[59] Ibid.

Impact of the Global Economy

Hudson Institute‘s book, Workforce 2020, emphasizes that growth in the economy hinges on ―a vibrant workforce, and the vibrant workforce of the future would be shaped by new technologies, openness to immigration, training and education, and liberal trade policies.‖

[60]

Globalization is propelling us to the point where the diverse workforce, worksite flexibility, and technology will make immaterial the actual location where work is accomplished. One direct result of this development is that e-business will move outsourcing to the forefront in the next ten years.

[61] Organizations of all sizes will be

global.

However, future trends in outsourcing herald something very different from just letting a specialized firm handle payroll. Outsourcing might involve processes, talent, content, development, manufacturing, or an entire department. Some might be competency-, time-, or finance-driven. Technology‘s speed of change will increase the attractiveness of outsourcing of all kinds because of the difficulty of keeping current with the latest innovations that boost competitive advantage.

From a technology standpoint, outsourcing will be transparent because all a worker requires is a browser and an Internet connection. Work will occur from anywhere, any time—and from anybody. HR will be responsible for the virtual mobile worker in a virtual global workplace full of telecommuters, contractors, contingent workers, and more.

The cultural aspects of globalization are the most difficult. HR professionals must be experts at bridging cultural diversity gaps and making sure worksites in each location do not become isolated. Active communication and collaboration should transcend distance and time zones.

The employee portal represents a critical tool for managing international worker populations. Role-based collaboration via a portal will become increasingly valuable as HR addresses workers of varying cultures and culture-based motivations. Portals will handle multilingual applications and translation issues on the fly.

When it comes to fluctuating worldwide economic conditions, HR will need to be aware and nimble. The growth of e-business and its powerful impact on both the global economy and the nature of competition is a case in point, forcing HR to either capitalize on opportunities or sink beneath them. As always, the forward-thinking HR practitioner must master the skill of leveraging analytics to maximize employee productivity in times of scarcity or plenty. We have seen how economic boom and bust—such as the rise and fall of the dot-com era—drives corporate decision making. The faster an HR department can arrive at intelligent business responses to external and internal variables, the healthier an organization will be as it rides the waves of change.

[60] Recommended additional reading on the technology of the future: Joseph H. Boyett

and Jimmie T. Boyett (contributor). Beyond Workplace 2000: Essential Strategies for the New Corporation. New York: Plume, 1996.

[61] For more information, please see ―Data Protection—A Global Challenge.‖ A

PeopleSoft, Inc., white paper. Pleasanton, CA: PeopleSoft, March 2001.

From Tangibles to Intangibles

Today, only 15 percent of our resources are tangible, represented by easily quantifiable equipment, products, and plants. A whopping 85 percent of our assets are intangible: knowledge capital and people.

[62]

If we looked back fifty years, we‘d find that statistic to be just about the opposite. However, throughout these years, we‘ve seen no change in our accounting practices, which were developed for tangible asset accounting. HR must look for better ways to account for intangible assets, emphasizing the entire people side of the business.

[63]

We categorize the difference between total market value and book value as intangible assets. Figure 9.4 shows the scope of those assets.

Intangible Assets

―Behind the tremendous productivity improvements enabled by information technology are the people who do all of the knowing, building, planning, collaborating, executing, supporting, and competing.‖ While executives understand a cost focus, it does not

account for the dynamics of people. Human capital is the key strategic factor that drives the return on all tangible capital investments.

[64]

In the next decade, people will become the most critical part of an organization‘s intangible assets. HR therefore must adapt its financial practices to the unprecedented: accounting for intangibles.

Future employees will plan on staying with an employer for only about three years. Unless HR can retain a worker, that person becomes a very fleeting intangible asset. The successful HR practitioner will become extremely skilled at identifying true talent and increasing the amount of time those particular people want to stay with the company. This has extensive monetary implications due to the high cost of hiring or replacing top performers.

[65] An updated financial system will clearly account for the fact

that the practice of retaining the best workers and turning over non-performers does have bottom-line implications.

Technology and Intangibles: A Balance

We‘ve looked at the tremendous power of technology to propel us forward. However advanced technology becomes, it is and will be limited in its ability to accommodate for the ambiguity inherent in organizations driven by the unpredictable: human beings. In his article ―Hard Systems, Soft Systems: New Challenges for Twenty-First Century HR Systems, Stakeholders, and Vendors,‖ Bob Stambaugh elaborates on this ambiguity and the importance of the quality of life as well as systems quality.

[66]

Our good news/bad news predictions for the future underscore the necessity of embracing the realities of intangibles. The good news is that we have much better technology at our fingertips than we did twenty-five years ago. The bad news? Technology is changing so quickly that we have difficulty keeping up with it. HR must be smarter than technology when it comes to the variability of the intangible.

Stambaugh outlines eight criteria that distinguish between the requirements of what he appropriately calls the structured world (technologically supported and quantifiable processes) and the unstructured world of intangible assets, where quality of life is paramount. To summarize:

 Identifying distinct functions and addressing them with stakeholders in isolation detracts from effective holistic systems thinking.

 Variability promotes longevity, and too much specialization leaves organizations vulnerable to destruction. HR must standardize with caution because the greater the human component, the greater the need for flexibility.

 Human capital often means disorder of a necessary kind. HRIS should support structure in some key areas but keep an open space for questioning, creativity, and the overall nurturing of human capital.

 Because measurable goals can be meaningless by the time HR realizes them, HR must abandon rigid strategies in favor of strategizing, scenario planning, and

incorporating flexible processes. Extrapolating from metrics mainly works with the tangible and stable.

 HR and HRIS must consciously but informally foster a culture of collaboration for the sharing of ideas in an arena meaningful to all employees, not only to management systems.

 Advanced HR reporting of the future will involve storytelling, a comprehensive, big-picture communication tool that frees executives from the distraction of detail and helps them combine their experience with intuition for decision making.

 Boundaries are still important when eliminating silos. To avoid the destruction of critical but perhaps hidden intangible assets, HR and HRIS must carefully assess the full impact of structural changes on all aspects of the workplace and preserve limits when necessary.

 In a healthy system, change will be evident everywhere. Too much stability indicates sickness, or at best, a lack of growth.

[67]

[62] ―About Hudson‘s Beyond Workforce 2020.‖ Hudson Institute.

[www._beyondworkforce2020.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=about_detail]

[63] Henson, R. ―Human Resources in 2020: Managing the Bionic Workforce.‖

[64] Lev, B. ―Intangibles: Management, Measurement, and Reporting.‖

[65] Henson, R. ―HR in the 21st Century: Challenges and Opportunities,‖ p. 263.

[66] Lange, M. ―Human Capital Management: Strategies and Technology for

Competitive Advantage,‖ p. 335.

[67] Henson substantiates this with a quote from Jac Fitzenz of The Saratoga Institute in

―HR in the 21st Century: Challenges and Opportunities,‖ p. 256.

The Practical Side of the Future: HR as an Anchor

HR functions have long been the backbone of every organization. This is true whether or not they have been acknowledged as such.

Changing Roles and Delegation

HR professionals are accustomed to wearing many hats—and this chapter has shown that the HR role is not becoming any simpler. Amidst workforce and technology changes, HR organizations will be extremely valuable as a consistent force that guides the adaptation to change, like quality shocks and good steering on an automobile. However, HR practitioners must be careful to manage their time and energy efficiently amidst the increasing complexities of their role.

HR also faces the organizational challenge caused by resistance to change. For example, certain managers can only manage what they can see, creating a backlash in the face of efforts to collaborate and innovate. HR must be prepared for this.

The often-discussed shift from record-keeper and administrator to strategic business partner will become a reality as long as it is a shift HR embraces. HR must change its own self-image. HR practitioners should begin seeing themselves as the main organizational infrastructure and view workers as valued intangible assets. HR will focus on building processes and HR practices that align managers and employees with the overall goals and objectives of the organization.

Becoming a true business partner is also about implementing best practices. These involve building an infrastructure that makes the right information available to the right people, building an employer-of-choice environment, creating compensation structures that are competitive and enticing, finding innovative ways to retain talent, and more. To the extent that it is possible, HR practitioners will become predictors of the future as they examine competencies the organization will require and conduct workforce planning and optimization. Measuring the impact of these activities will also continue to belong to HR.

Looking into a future fraught with upheaval, some have questioned whether HR will continue to exist. It certainly will—if HR attends to the responsibilities outlined here. The HR department that stays back-office operational will be the one that is outsourced.

Although HR might retain the connotation of being strictly a department, we‘re moving to a blended environment where everyone who has responsibility for a worker also has ownership of human capital. More and more, HR professionals will be delegating specific activities to line managers. It will be the line managers who perform many functions previously assigned only to HR, such as hiring, managing performance, and assigning access to knowledge.

Additional Recommendations for the HR Practitioner

Today, the access to technology is phenomenal. Things we never dreamed of twenty- five years ago we can now do quite easily. For example, we can bring together information from many sources into one cohesive portal that is acceptable by all employees. This is a massive shift, and it occurred just in the last ten years. Think of what the advantages of the next ten years can bring. (See Exhibit 9.2, a prediction from PeopleSoft.)

Can fallible human beings keep up with mercurial technological changes? HR must continually address the balance between technological structures and the human element. The practical, people side of business has never been an exact science. At the end of the day, HR will and must do what needs to be done, moving forward within the bounds of systems and people.

Exhibit 9.2: Workforce Technology in the Next Decade.

Based on information provided by HR data and driven by embedded knowledge and analytics, increasingly sophisticated portals will vastly improve the level of personalization by role and by individual. Available in multimedia from anywhere on any kind of device, the portal that we envision will recognize individual users and enable collaboration that makes business activities second-nature. These same portals will transport corporate culture to workers at their virtual locations across the globe.

Technology will drive increased worker autonomy, opening up new worlds of self- management for employees and contingent workers. The following types of changes will be in evidence:

 Portals will recognize an individual‘s role and preferences and supply quick access to material required for task completion.

 Self-service will be taken to the next generation: highly filtered, incredibly intuitive, and extremely easy to understand and use.

 Self-management will impact managerial and supervisory roles, changing the face of the job-role landscape as managers assume more HR responsibilities and HR takes on more business functions.

 A worker‘s portal will cater directly to the way that the individual likes to receive information and learning based on his or her work patterns, such as left-brained or right-brained learning styles and self-directed or mentored work styles.

 Multimedia will enable workers/managers to speak, touch, or type in questions and receive coaching, counseling, and knowledge tailored to their particular work styles.

 The personalized portal will provide only viable options and rele-vant material while suggesting choices in a manner similar to the way Amazon.com began doing when it set its e-business standard in the early Internet era.

 Content from external sources will be integrated with transactions. For example, benefits enrollment will link to relevant directories, training enrollment will link to relevant learning programs, jobs listings will link to relevant candidates, and so on.

 Training will be minimized, and most learning will occur while tasks are already in process via intuitive prompts driven by integrated content and analytics.

 Workers will use portal technology to help analyze their own degree of effectiveness and efficiency.

 Workers will be able to download just-in-time corporate, product, cultural, or language information as needed for specialized job functions.

 Robotics will handle a number of routine tasks, such as mail delivery and many blue-collar assembly-line jobs. Further dynamics will emerge as organizations introduce bionics into robotics.

Source: PeopleSoft.

HR will continue to adeptly interpret, cushion, and leverage powerful upcoming developments to effectively respond to change while advancing the productivity of human capital. In doing so, HR assumes the responsibility for being a backbone of stability that anchors the world of work.

―When things slow down a bit I‘ll get to this‖ is a common statement, but things are never going to slow down. We need to figure out how to get things done now—because the world of work will only change more quickly in the future.

HR practitioners must be better at understanding employees and delivering information to them. Here are a few more tips on the practical side:

 Learn how to measure the impact of people on the bottom line.  Learn how to communicate the impact of your human capital to management.  Develop practices that are in alignment with the overall goals and objectives of

the organization.  Be the owners of your corporate culture.  Don‘t be afraid to delegate to line managers certain tactical tasks and

responsibilities formerly associated only with HR.  Don‘t be afraid to be strategic.

―The critical asset of the 21st century is knowledge. The critical skill is adapting quickly to change. The secret is learning—learning to adapt to a new digital economy will be the most strategic weapon of the next millennium. Adapting to the changing technology, the changing customers, the changing products and services, and the changing rules of the digital economy is necessary. Digital Darwinism means the end of companies stuck in the Industrial Age.‖

[68]

This is the most exciting time in the history of HR and human capital because the world today is about knowledge. We have shifted into a knowledge economy where the primary asset in all organizations is human capital, HR‘s domain. Regardless of what organizations will call the HR department in the future, HR has the potential to be the owner of the intangible asset world, the owner of corporate culture as it relates to the human domain.

Organizations of the future will be human-capital-asset driven, and those that leverage best practices in the HR discipline will be leaders, not laggers. For HR professionals, the challenge is to step up to that leadership role.

[68] Stambaugh, B. ―Hard Systems, Soft Systems: New Challenges for Twenty-First

Century HR Systems, Stakeholders, and Vendors,‖ pp. 107–129.