statistic assignment

QUESTION 1 :

Time-series models ________.

a. are also known as judgmental forecasting models

b. assume that forecasts are seldom developed by extrapolating historical data into the future

c. assume that whatever forces have influenced sales in the recent past will continue into the near future

d. include independent variables like, demand conditions and the current economy state that help in forecasting

QUESTION 2

Which of the following uses a panel of experts, whose identities are typically kept confidential from one another, to respond to a sequence of questionnaires?

a. the Simple Exponential Smoothing method

b. the method of Historical Analogy

c. the Simple Moving average method

d. the Delphi method of forecasting

QUESTION 3

In the context of time series, a cyclical effect differs from a seasonal effect in that the cyclical effect ________.

a. does not show a gradual shift in the time series

b. relates to much shorter-term behavior

c. relates to much longer-term behavior

d. shows a gradual shift in the time series

QUESTION 4

What is the gradual shift in the value of the time series known as?

a. a smoothing constant

b. a coordinate

c. a weight

d. a trend

QUESTION 5

week	Units sold
1	44
2	22
3	27
4	33
5	36
6	43

The sales details for 6 weeks of a particular type of switches, called the "Twitch," are shown in the table below. Use moving average method. The value of k is set at 2.

For the data given above, the forecast for week 5 is ________.

a. 30 units

b. 35 units

c. 25 units

d. 33 units

QUESTION 6

Using the given data in previous question, calculate the value of the mean absolute deviation.

a. 7.25

b. 21.10

c. 9.36

d. 54.13

QUESTION 7

Using the given data, determine the value of the mean square error.

a. 21.10

b. 54.13

c. 7.25

d. 9.36

QUESTION 8

The table below shows the car sales from the year 2002-2007. The forecaster assumes a smoothing constant of 0.8 and uses the exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for the future.

Year	Cars Sold (in 000s)
2002	66
2003	33
2004	41
2005	49
2006	54
2007	65

From the data given above, the forecast for the year 2005 (in 000s) is ________.

a. 39.60 units

b. 52.67 units

c. 40.72 units

d. 47.34 units

QUESTION 9

From the data given above, the sales forecast for the year 2008 (in 000s) is ________.

a. 52.67 units

b. 62.53 units

c. 40.72 units

d. 47.34 units

QUESTION 10

Using the given data, determine the value of the mean absolute deviation.

a. 15.03

b. 12.33

c. 25.27

d. 225.98