see descritption- due in 24 hours, starts work, proofiecency in excel

Part 1: Individual Factors Affecting Voter Turnout Based on our class discussion of voter turnout, you are going to examine individual factors affecting turnout and how they have changed over the past 50 years. To do so, you will be using historical data provided by the United States Census Bureau. This data is located here: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/historical/index.html You will need to download the Excel spreadsheet files (XLS or CSV) for Table A-1 and Table A-2. Contained in Table A-1 are rates of self-reported voter turnout in elections from 1964 to 2014 by age. You will analyze the percent of the total population that voted for age groups 18-24, 25-44, 45-64, and 65 years and over. Contained in Table A-2 are rates of self-reported voter turnout in elections from 1964 to 2014 by educational attainment. You will analyze the percent of the total population that voted for educational attainment levels less than 9th grade, 9th to 12th grade, no diploma, high school graduate or GED, some college or associate’s degree, and bachelor’s degree or more. You should cut and paste each of these columns into a new spreadsheet for the elections from 1964 to 2014. Once this is done, sort the data by ascending year. Finally, you should only keep presidential elections (1964, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012). Using a spreadsheet program, create two different line graphs showing how voter turnout rates have changed over time by age and level of educational attainment respectively. The x-axis should be the years from 1964 through 2012 (presidential elections only) and the y-axis should be percent that voted. In the respective line graph, a separate line should be drawn for the each category age (18-24, 25-44, 45-64, and 65 years and over) and educational attainment (less than 9th grade, 9th to 12th grade, no diploma, high school graduate or GED, some college or associate’s degree, and bachelor’s degree or more). Cut and paste each of the line graphs into your homework document labeled 1a and 1b. For each line graph, describe in a few sentences the 48-year trend in voter turnout. 1c. In a few sentences, explain why we would expect to see differences in turnout among different categories of age and level of education.

Part 2: Institutional Factors Affecting Voter Turnout In this section you will be studying the relationship between institutional factors and voter turnout. Specifically, you will test the effect of rules governing requests for absentee ballots on turnout. You will use data collected by Cemenska et al. (2009). The study describing the data and a subset of the data based on the 2008 election are posted on Classes in the folder “Resources/Research Assignment.” The data file you will work with is called Pew_Early_Vote.xls. Over the past several decades, states have changed several electoral laws regarding how citizens may vote. Here we will focus on absentee voting. Absentee voting has long been available for individuals who meet certain requirements like being out of state or physically unable to make it to the polls on election. However, since 1972 many states have relaxed these requirements. This has made absentee voting an alternative to going to the polls for all citizens. Absentee ballots typically must be requested by mail or in person a certain number of days prior to election day. You will be analyzing two variables:

• abs_request_deadline_inperson is the number of days before the election that voters may go in and request an absentee ballot by personally appearing at the office of an election official. For example, if the value is equal to 10, a request for an absentee ballot made in person must be at least 10 days before the election. States that do not allow absentee ballots to be requested in person are coded as missing.

• abs_request_deadline_receipt is the number of days before the election that postal requests for absentee ballots must be received in order to be honored. For example, if the value is equal to 10, a request for an absentee ballot made by mail must be received at least 10 days before the election. States that do not allow absentee ballots to be requested in by mail are coded as missing.

In order to study the relationship between voter turnout and these two variables, you must add voter turnout in 2008 by state. This data is located here: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/p20/2008/tables.html Download Table 4-A and add Percent voted (Total 18+) to Pew_Early_Vote.xls for each of the corresponding states. Now we can analyze the relationship between these absentee voting requirements and voter turnout. You will first construct two separate scatterplots in which the absentee voting requirement (in-person and mail) is on the x-axis and voter turnout is on the y-axis. 2a. Based on our discussion in class about the relationship between institutional factors and turnout, what do you expect to see for absentee ballot request deadlines? What general pattern should the points fall on the scatterplot you are about to draw? Why?

2b. Now draw a scatterplot for the in-person deadline for absentee ballot requests to be received. I recommend using Microsoft Excel to construct the scatterplot and determine the regression line. If you are familiar with a different spreadsheet or data analysis program, you are welcome to use it instead—as long as you are able to complete the tasks listed here.

• If you do not know how to use Excel to construct a scatterplot, the instructions posted here may be helpful: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel-help/present-your-data-in-a-scatter-chart-or-a- line-chart-HA010227478.aspx?CTT=1 (you may have to cut and paste the link into your browser)

• Please be patient—if you are not used to doing this it may take a couple of tries to get things right. Make sure to give yourself plenty of time to complete the assignment.

• Remember that the scatterplot should have absentee ballot request (either in person or postal) deadline on the x-axis and the voter turnout on the y-axis.

• The axes should the labeled and the chart should have an appropriate title. Once you have drawn the scatterplot, have Excel calculate the regression line and regression equation and add it to the figure:

• Instructions about how to do this may be found at: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel-help/add-change-or-remove-a-trendline-in-a- chart-HP010342158.aspx?CTT=1 (you may have to cut and paste the link into your browser)

Copy and paste the scatterplot with a regression line and regression equation into your homework document. 2c. Following the same steps as 2b, draw a scatterplot with a regression line and regression equation for he postal deadline for absentee ballots to be received. Copy and paste the scatterplot with a regression line and regression equation into your homework document. 2d. What does this analysis tell us about the relationship between absentee voting requirements and voter turnout? 2e. What does the equation for the regression line predict would the level of voter turnout in states where postal absentee ballot requests are required to be received 10 days before the election? Show your work. 2f. Does the analysis meet your expectations as specified in your response to 2a? Say why or why not.

Part 3: Do Voters and Abstainers Have the Same Preferences? The goal of this section is to assess the whether voters and nonvoters have different policy preferences. Convention wisdom, based on analysis done based on data from 1972 by Wolfinger and Rosenstone (1980), was that voters and nonvoters have similar policy preferences. However, more recent work by Leighley and Nagler (2014) suggests this may not be the case. To study this question, you will use the General Social Survey (GSS) cumulative data file. In surveys administered between 1972 and 2014, the GSS asked Americans about their preferences on a variety of issues. To analyze these data, you will use an online tool called the Survey Documentation & Analysis program, or SDA. The SDA website for the GSS may be found at: http://sda.berkeley.edu/cgi-bin/hsda?harcsda+gss14 Open this link in your web browser. You will be analyzing a GSS question that asks about government spending in five different areas: I would like to talk with you about some things people think about today. We are faced with many problems in this country, none of which can be solved easily or inexpensively. I'm going to name some of these problems, and for each one I'd like you to tell me whether you think we're spending too much money on it, too little money, or about the right amount. ... are we spending too much, too little, or about the right amount on… The five policies asked about are: Welfare? (NATFARE) Improving and protecting the nation’s health? (NATHEAL) Improving the nation's education system? (NATEDUC) Mass transportation? (NATMASS) Assistance for childcare? (NATCHLD) You will compare responses among voters and non-voters in the 2012 election to the five policy questions. The GSS question asked (VOTE12): In 2012, you remember that Obama ran for President on the Democratic ticket against Romney for the Republicans. Do you remember for sure whether or not you voted in that election? I will walk through how to analyze the first question (NATFARE). The other four should be analyzed the same way. At the top of the SDA Frequencies/Crosstabulation Program:

- Type VOTE12 into the box next to the word “Column.”

- Type the word NATFARE into the box next to the word “Row.” Under “Table Options”:

- Check “Column” under “Percentaging” in the lower left-hand box.

Leave everything else as is (see the screenshot on the next page).

- Now click the Run the Table button.

A screenshot of what the page should look like is on the next page. 3. Record the percent of “VOTED” who respond “TOO LITTLE”, the percent of “DID NOT VOTE” who responded “TOO LITTLE”, and the difference between the two in a table (in you homework document): Issue % of Voters % of Nonvoters Difference Welfare Improving and protecting the nation’s health Improving the nation’s education system Mass transportation Assistance for childcare

SDA Frequencies/Crosstabulation Program Help: General / Recoding Variables

REQUIRED Variable names to specify Row: NATFARE OPTIONAL Variable names to specify Column: VOTE12 Control: Selection Filter(s): Example: age(18-50) Weight: COMPWT - Composite weight: WTSSALL * OVERSAMP * FORMWT

TABLE OPTIONS Percentaging: Column Row Total Confidence intervals Level: 95 percent Standard error of each percent Design effect (deft) for each percent Sample design: Complex SRS

N of cases to display: Unweighted Weighted

Summary statistics Question text Suppress table Color coding Show Z-statistic Include missing-data values

CHART OPTIONS

Type of chart: Stacked Bar Chart Bar chart options: Orientation: Vertical Horizontal Visual Effects: 2-D 3-D

Show percents: Yes Palette: Color Grayscale Size - width: 600 height: 400

Title:

Run the Table Clear Fields

Change number of decimal places to display For percents and confidence intervals: 1 For std. errors (relative to percents): +1 For DEFT: +3 For weighted N's: 1 For summary statistics and Z-statistic: 2

Now we will look at the same question as above, however welfare is described differently. Participants are once again asked: I would like to talk with you about some things people think about today. We are faced with many problems in this country, none of which can be solved easily or inexpensively. I'm going to name some of these problems, and for each one I'd like you to tell me whether you think we're spending too much money on it, too little money, or about the right amount. ... are we spending too much, too little, or about the right amount on… Now, the policy is described as “assistance to the poor”: Assistance to the poor? (NATFAREY) 4a. Following the same steps to analyze NATFAREY illustrated in 3, record the percent of “VOTED” who respond “TOO LITTLE”, the percent of “DID NOT VOTE” who responded “TOO LITTLE”, and the difference between the two in a table (in you homework document): Issue % of Voters % of Nonvoters Difference Assistance to the poor 4b. When comparing what you found in 4a and 3, do you observe any differences in support for welfare? If so, why would this be the case?

Part 4: Conclusions 4. In a paragraph or two, assess the assertion that voters are representative of the electorate. Use evidence from the analysis conducted as part of this exercise to support your conclusion.1 What are the normative implications of your findings given that previous research has shown that elected officials are more responsive to voters than nonvoters? Do you think who votes matters? Now you are done! Give your responses a close reading for grammar, spelling and typos (deductions will be made to your grade for careless mistakes). Again, make sure your name, your T.A.’s name and your recitation meeting time are listed on the first page. Submit the assignment at the beginning of class on April 25th.

1 Another useful fact is that previous research has shown that absentee voters tend to be more educated and older than those who vote in person on election day.