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Political Participation

and Voting

Voting

Suffrage extended to different groups at different points in American history. Initially only wealthy, white, male, >21 years old

Wealth limitation eliminated early 1800s
15th Amendment enfranchises black men (1870)
19th Amendment enfranchises women (1920)
24th Amendment ends poll taxes (1964)
26th Amendment lowers age to 18 (1971)

Jim Crow laws emerged in response to the Fifteenth Amendment. Though black men had the right to vote, many states and communities worked vehemently to keep them from participating, using laws, discriminatory social norms, and violence.
Black voting rights have no parallel in American history; women and young voters never encountered the systematic and extreme backlash to their enfranchisement.

Voting

Right to vote: all American citizens >18 yrs. old
10 states (as of 2012) lifetime ban convicted felons

Turnout relatively low today
Other democracies and points in American history
60 percent national average presidential elections
33 percent national average off-year national races
Significant state and regional differences

Students can look up which states have lifetime bans on voting.
There is a common misunderstanding that this law is a national rule but, in fact, the vast majority of American states (40 as of 2012) do not have this policy in place.
We need points of comparison to determine whether turnout is high or low.
Most often, we compare contemporary turnout to two variables: prior turnout rates at different points in American history, and nations with comparable governments (democracies).

Voter Registration Rates by Social Group, 2008

FIGURE 8.4 Census Data - Voter Registration Rates by Social Group, 2008

Some political analysts argue that registration requirements depress turnout. The percentage of the population that is registered to vote varies according to education level, employment status, race and ethnicity, and age. Are people with a lower income more or less likely to register to vote? Are less-educated people more or less likely to register? Would the rates of participation among these groups change if registration requirements were altered?

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, “Reported Voting and Registration by Race, Hispanic Origin, Sex, and Age Groups: November 1964 to 2008”; “Reported Voting and Registration by Region, Educational Attainment, and Labor Force: November 1964 to 2008,” www.census.gov (accessed 11/24/09); U.S. Census Bureau, “Reported Voting and Registration by Region, Educational Attainment, and Labor Force: November 1964 to 2008,” www.census.gov (accessed 11/24/09); Douglass R. Hess and Jody Herman, “Representational Bias in the 2008 Electorate,” November 2009, www.projectvote.org (accessed 11/21/09).

Voting

FIGURE 8.2 Voter Turnout in Presidential and Midterm Elections, 1892–2012

Since the 1890s, participation in elections has declined substantially. One pattern is consistent across time: more Americans tend to vote in presidential election years than in years when only congressional and local elections are held. What are some of the reasons that participation rose and fell during the last century?

SOURCES: Erik Austin and Jerome Clubb, Political Facts of the United States since 1789 (New York: Columbia University Press, 1986), Michael McDonald, “The United States Election Project,” http://elections.qmu.edu (accessed 7/18/12). *Estimate

Voter turnout in democratic nations 1945–2008

Voting

Voter Turnout around the World, 1945–2008

Although the United States is the oldest mass democracy, rates of voter turnout are substantially higher in other countries. In many of these countries, election days are holidays and voting is compulsory. Do you think that either of these reforms would increase voting in the United States?

SOURCE: International Institute of Democracy and Electoral Assistance. www.idea.int/vt/ (accessed 12/5/09); note that for some of the countries, the most recent election data are from 2007; for Brazil, the average is calculated for the period after 1989, when democracy was restored.

NOTE: Average between 1945 and 2008.

Voting

Voter turnout by race and ethnicity 1976–2008

FIGURE 8.3 The Percentage of Americans Who Voted, 1976–2008

Voting rates vary substantially by race and ethnicity, education, employment status, and age. Which groups have the highest rates of voter turnout? Among which groups has participation increased the most since 1992?

SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau, “Reported Voting and Registration by Race, Hispanic Origin, Sex, and Age Groups: November 1964 to 2008”; “Reported Voting and Registration by Region, Educational Attainment, and Labor Force: November 1964 to 2008,” www.census.gov (accessed 11/24/09).

Voting

Voter turnout by educational attainment 1976–2008

FIGURE 8.3 The Percentage of Americans Who Voted, 1976–2008

Voting

Voter turnout by Employment Status1976–2008

FIGURE 8.3 The Percentage of Americans Who Voted, 1976–2008

Voting

Voter turnout by Age Distribution1976–2008

FIGURE 8.3 The Percentage of Americans Who Voted, 1976–2008

WHO ARE AMERICANS?

SOURCE: Data are based on exit polls available at http://www.elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls (accessed 11/12/12).

Who Made Up the Electorate in 2012?

AGE

RACE

GENDER

53%
Women

47%
Men

19%
18–29

27%
30–44

38%
45–64

16%
65+

Asian 3%

Other 2%

72%
White

Black 13%

Hispanic 10%

The electorate—those citizens who vote in elections—does not necessarily resemble the American population. For example, in 2012, Latinos made up at least 16 percent of the population but only 10 percent of the electorate in the 2012 presidential election (though this percentage has been steadily increasing over recent elections). Americans older than 65 made up about 13 percent of the populations but 16 percent of the electorate.

WHO ARE AMERICANS?

SOURCE: Data are based on exit polls available at http://www.elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/exit-polls (accessed 11/12/12).

Who Made Up the Electorate in 2012?

ANNUAL
INCOME

PARTY

EDUCATION

20%
< $30,000

22%

$30,000–
49,000

59%
> $50,000

38%
Democrat

38%
Republican

29%
Independent

53%

No college
degree

29%

College
graduate

18%

Postgraduate

Questions for Classroom Discussion:

Over the past three presidential elections, the electorate has included fewer whites as a percentage of total voters. What does this mean for candidates and parties?

2. Does it matter if the electorate reflects the overall population? Why or why not?

Voting

Why do people vote?

Individual preferences and traits
Partisanship, ideology, religion, sex, income, etc.

Political environment
Campaigns, issues, mobilization, party competition

State policies
Registration deadlines and methods, identification, ballot types (paper, mail only, etc.)

1. It is easy to identify who votes, but a more complicated question is why people vote.

2. This list gives information about variables that predict and explain underlying experiences that influence turnout.

3. For example, there is nothing magical about age; someone does not automatically turn into a voter because they hit a certain number.

4. Rather, these factors, in combination, do tell us a great deal about individual and contextual factors that influence the propensity to vote.

5. Of course, there are always people of X set of traits that do or do not vote; that does not invalidate these consistent, well-established findings.

Voting

Political mobilization
Process by which large numbers of people are organized for a political activity
Online and/or in-person mobilization activities include ads, calls, e-mails, campaign events, fundraising, and others.
Not all people are mobilized equally.
Turnout disparities reflect mobilization differences.
Other factors, but mobilization an important one

This term is used throughout and should be familiar.

Voting

Individual traits and preferences

Demographic indicators
Education, income, sex, race/ethnicity, age
Education: highest impact because influences so many other factors correlated with voter turnout information, efficacy, and, of course, income
Preferences and attitudes
Party attachment, ideology, issue positions
Makes sense: people with well-formed opinions vote

Demographic traits shape personal and group experiences, which may influence what issues matter to people.
Demographic traits shape sensibility about the merits and impact of electoral participation
Preferences and attitudes: people who care about an issue(s), party, or feel vested in the outcome, vote.

Voting

Political environment

Context can attract voters to the polls
Candidates, pressing issues
Mobilization strategies and investment
Party competition (or lack thereof)
Consistently competitive or noncompetitive
Voters, candidates, parties and contributors ALL take party competition into account.

Compelling candidates (Clinton v. Obama is a case in point) draw voter attention and turnout.
Issues that the public cares about that are of immediate importance may influence turnout (wars, economy).
Turnout is a two-way street. Campaigns strategically invest in mobilizing their base, people who are asked are more likely to vote.
Highly competitive races have higher turnout; just like more competitive sports matchups get higher ratings. No one feels compelled to participate in a blow-out. On the other hand, if it is seemingly close, the incentive to turn out rises.

Voting

State policies

All states implement voting and election laws differently. Some make it easier than others.
Registration deadlines prior to election day
Length of residency at current address
Identification requirements
Early and absentee voting rules
Variable vote locations
Ballot method: mail only, paper ballot, kiosk, etc.

Making the process of registration, remaining on the voter roll, and the act of voting more user-friendly, or not, can influence turnout.
Students can look up different rules for a few different states and compare turnout rates.

American Voters

Why is turnout different across groups?

Turnout =

state rules + political context + individual traits

Variation in all three variables explains voter turnout trends.

Think about the permutations of these three variables. Make a hypothetical voter, give the voter personal traits (income, education, employment). Assign that hypothetical voter to a state, then look up the rules and degree of party competition in the state. Is your person more or less likely to turn out, given the set of variables? Repeat for three to five more hypothetical voters, then rank their likelihood of voting in the next election.

American Voters

Latinos: largest minority in United States (16 percent as of 2010)

Established political ties with both parties
Cuban Americans with GOP; Puerto Rican and Mexican American with Democrats
Population geographic concentrations
Parties competitive: FL, NV, NM, CO
Parties noncompetitive states: TX, CA, NY, CT
Low turnout factors: income, education, state laws, party competition, low mobilization

Latinos frequently are described in terms of national trends; sometimes that is fine, other times we miss in-group differences.
In the case of voter turnout, national trends mask other issues associated with turnout, especially party competition.
Latino turnout in competitive states is higher, but large shares of the Latino population live in noncompetitive states.
Low-competition states are the least mobilized; in addition, Spanish dominant Latino voters are less likely mobilized.
Lower education and income rates also correlate with turnout.

American Voters

African Americans: (13 percent of U.S. as of 2010)

Strong ties to Democratic Party since 1960s
Voting rights, desegregation, civil rights agenda
Turnout in context
Laws kept black turnout low for over a century.
Voting Rights Act (1965), turnout rates soar.
Today, turnout more than Latinos, less than whites
Low turnout factors: income, education, state laws, low mobilization by both parties

American Voters

Asian Americans: (5 percent of U.S. as of 2010)

Party ties not strong, lean Democrat
Geographic concentration:
Hawaii, California, Texas, New York, New Jersey
Turnout in context
Lowest turnout rate of groups we can estimate
Factors: in-group diversity and geographic diffusion make group cohesiveness difficult, low mobilization, noncompetitive states

1. Despite having higher incomes and educations than other groups the Census tracks, Asian Americans have the lowest turnout rate (among groups the Census tracks).

2. Asian Americans are few in number relative to other minority groups; they are also much more diverse in terms of heritage language, and countries of origin. Those differences make it hard for the group to coalesce and for mobilization to reach them.

Gender and Participation

Women won the right to vote with the adoption of the Nineteenth Amendment in 1929, in part, because many officials were convinced that women’s suffrage would increase female support for American involvement in World War I. Women have been generally less likely than men to support military activities.

Gender and Participation

Percent Women in Elected Office

FIGURE 8.5 Increase in Number of Women in Elective Office, 1975–2013

The number of women holding elected office has always been larger in state offices than in Congress. When did the percentage of women elected to office begin to rise more rapidly?

*Governors, attorneys general, etc.

SOURCES: Cynthia Costello, Shari Miles, and Anne J. Stone, eds., The American Woman, 2001–2002 (New York: W.W. Norton, 2002), p. 328; and Center for American Women and Politics, www.cawp.rutgers.edu (accessed 11/8/12).

Discussion on next slide

American Voters

Gender and turnout differences

Since 1984, women’s turnout higher than men
Men vote GOP at a higher rate.
Women vote Democrat at a higher rate.
Policy priorities and issue positions often differ.
Parties make direct mobilization appeals to women voters; indirect to men.
Ads, messaging, agenda issues

The gender gap frequently refers to partisan identification differences.
We can see men and women have several other political differences, though.
Students can watch campaign ads or go to the party or candidate websites to see the direct and indirect ways campaigns target men or women voters.

American Voters

Age and turnout differences

Long-standing trend: older voters highest turnout rate; youngest voters, lowest
People become voters over their lifetime.
Nonvoters at 20, probably voting by 65
Partisanship and issue positions stronger with age
Familiarity with registration process differs
Low turnout factors: information, experience, residential mobility, efficacy, income

Younger people tend to move more: for college, first job, maybe next couple of career/family changes.
Every time someone moves, they need to re-register to vote. People in new cities/states may not be engaged in local politics yet.
On the other hand, someone who has lived in the same community, even home, for 20 years is far more likely to know where to vote, how to vote (registration rules) and what the state and local issues are.

American Voters

Religiosity and Turnout Differences

People who attend religious services turn out at higher rates than those who do not.
Makes sense: people participating in one community activity, likely take part in another.
Religious institutions’ mobilization around issues and ideology; not only to benefit of GOP.
Many candidates make direct overtures to voters targeting their religious identity.

Religious identity and engagement does not equate with one party or another.
It is highly intertwined with race; religious and Republican is only true for the majority of white voters, according to recent studies.
Whites who identify as religious are overwhelmingly Republican voters.
Blacks that identify as religious are overwhelmingly Democratic voters.
Latinos and Asians that identify as religious are more Democratic than GOP.

www.gallup.com/poll/148361/Religion-Party-Strongly-Linked-Among-Whites-Not-Blacks.aspx

Also see: Rouse and McKenzie (2012) “Shades of Faith.” American Journal of Political Science.

Public Opinion Poll

Several countries (that are democracies) have compulsory voting policies that require all citizens to vote, and fine those who do not. Should the United States adopt such a policy to increase voter participation in American elections?

Yes

Public Opinion Poll

Which form of (individual) political participation do you think has the most influence on elected officials and candidates?

Voting

Campaign contributions

Contacting them to express concerns (e-mail, calls, visits to their offices, etc.)

Some other activity

Public Opinion Poll

Do you think laws, policies, and the way government operates in general would be different if everyone eligible to vote actually did?

Yes

Public Opinion Poll

State rules governing the voting process— deadlines, early/absentee options, ballot method— vary widely. Should all states have the same rules on these aspects to voting and elections?

Yes

Public Opinion Poll

Do you think more people would vote if there were more convenient options, like weekend or online (secured website) voting?

Yes

Voting Rights

FIGURE 8.4 The Percentage of Americans Who Voted, 1976–2008