District Analysis - Gpvernment

District Analysis

Summary

Geographically, it includes parts of Wake County, a small section of Chatham County and all of Orange and Durham Counties.  The Wake area is the most Republican leaning area of Wake County but is overwhelmed in numbers by Durham and Orange Counties.  Two major universities, the University of North Carolina and Duke University, as well as a large African American population in Durham County contribute to the progressive nature of the district. The 4th District is the most Democratic white majority district in the South outside of South Florida and Northern Virginia.

The median income is approximately $53,800 and the ethnicity breakdown from the 2000 census was 71% White, 20.7% Black, 3.9% Asian, 5.0% Hispanic, 0.3% Native American, and 0.3% Other. 

Demographic Data

Total number of residents: 721,325

In 2010, the total number of residents was 721,325. In 2000, the population was 619,178. Of those, the median income is approximately $53,800 and the ethnicity breakdown was 71% White, 20.7% Black, 3.9% Asian, 5.0% Hispanic, 0.3% Native American, and 0.3% Other.

Total number of registered voters: 578,827 or 554,408

In 2008, the total number of registered voters was 578,827 according to the DNC Voter file. That number is slightly lower at 554,408, according to AmericanGOTV. Using the former count, the breakdown demographically is:

Voters	Total Voters	Percent of Total
White/Other	326,067	75%
African American	96,842	22%
Hispanic	10,003	2%
Under 30	83,585	19%
30 – 44	127,101	29%
45 – 64	164,683	38%
Over 65	57,453	13%
Age Unknown	90	0%

According to AmericaGOTV, the 554,408 voters translate to 216,760 phone numbers and 388,486 households. By party, this translates to 256,610 Democrats, 145,354 Republicans, 151,819 Unaffiliated Voters, and 625 Libertarians.

By precinct :

Strong Democratic Precincts (Over 60%, Highest to Lowest)

Chatham – Manns Chapel, Carolina Meadows, Bynum, Pittsboro, West Williams

Durham – 12, 55, 49, 42, 55, 11, 47, 17, 13, 10, 41, 18, 22, 15, 8, 14, 52, 5, 2, 19, 1, 34, 6, 20, 23, 40, 7, 3, 30-2, 46, 21, 9, 54, 4, 36, 33, 48, 38, 53-2, 16, 51

Orange – Town Hall, Weaver Dairy Sat, Owasa, Northside, Carrboro, Westwood, Coker Hills, Greenwood, Lions Club, Colonial Heights, Battle Park, Estes Hills, Damascus, Mason Farm, Booker Creek, East Franklin, Dogwood Acres, Lincoln, Eastside, St. John, Ridgefield, Weaver Dairy, Hillsborough, Country Club, Glenwood, Hogan Farms, Cedar Falls, West Hillsborough

Wake – 4-21, 8-06

Democratic Precincts (50 – 60%, Highest to Lowest)

Chatham – North Williams, East Williams

Durham – 35-1, 27, 53-1, 35-2, 43, 30-1, 50, 31, 24 (Highest to Lowest)

Orange – North Carrboro, Kings Mill, Patterson, Cheeks, Grady Brown

Wake – 4-08, 11-01, 4-20, 4-17, 5-04, 5-05, 4-11, 20-01, 4-15, 4-18, 7-07A

Republican Precincts (50 – 60%, Highest to Lowest)

Chatham – New Hope, Hadley

Durham – 37, 45, 44, 29, 39

Orange – Eno, Efland, Carr, Orange Grove, Coles Store, White Cross

Wake – 12-09, 20-05, 07-03, 05-06, 04-12, 18-08, 06-09, 20-11, 03-00, 20-06B, 12-08, 05-03, 20-02, 18-03, 06-07, 04-14, 04-10, 20-10, 04-06, 08-03, 04-09, 08-05, 04-13, 06-04, 08-02, 08-10, 06-08, 05-01, 07-07, 11-02, 20-04, 20-06A, 04-19, 08-11, 08-09, 04-16, 04-03, 04-05, 04-01

Strong Republican Precincts (Over 60%, Highest to Lowest)

Chatham – None

Durham – 26, 28, 25, 32

Orange – Caldwell, Tolars, St. Mary’s, Cedar Grove, Cameron Park

Wake – 02-06, 15-03, 18-02, 02-04, 15-01, 15-04, 12-07, 02-03, 06-05, 12-04, 12-01, 01-47, 12-05, 18-07, 02-02, 18-04, 15-02, 12-06, 04-07, 06-10, 02-01, 08-07, 18-05, 08-04, 20-12, 20-08, 02-05, 08-08, 20-09, 12-02, 20-03, 07-06, 06-06

Previous Election Results

2008 Major National Races

President: DEM Obama 63% over REP McCain 36%

House of Representatives: DEM Price 63% over REP Lawson 37%

2006 Major National Races

House of Representatives: DEM Price 65% over REP Acuff 35%

2004 Major National Races

President: DEM Kerry 55% over REP Bush 44%

House of Representatives: DEM Price 64% over REP Batchelor 36%

2002 Major National Races

House of Representatives: DEM Price 61% over REP Nguyen 36% and LIB Nelson 3%

2000 Major Races

President: DEM Gore 53% over REP Bush 46%

House of Representatives: DEM Price 62% over REP Ward 37% and LIB Towey 2%

Campaign Win Number

The campaign win number was calculated using the total number of votes cast in the prior 3 non-Presidential year elections for the general and 6 elections (including Presidential) for the primary. Due to the number of candidates entering the primary being unknown, the win number was calculated as 50% + 1, which would be sufficient regardless of the number of candidates.

Election Year	Primary	General
2008	N/A	N/A
2006	44,291	195,939
2004	N/A	N/A
2002	N/A	216,046
2000	N/A	N/A
1998	19,957	224,910
Win Number	16,062	106,149

Analysis and Strategy

Appraisal of Opponent

To date, no opponent has been identified. Congressman Price has represented the 4th District for over 20 years (losing for one term in 1994) and has appointed or indicated no successor for the position. It is expected by community members that there will be a very competitive and extremely popular primary race when Congressman Price retires. As many as 15 individuals, including several prominent African American members of the Durham community, will most likely enter the race.

Candidate’s Strengths and Weaknesses

Positive Characteristics:

Education

Progressive Community Involvement

Military Service (in conservative precincts)

Job Experiences

Not “Professional Politician”

Negative Characteristics:

Race Issues (in Durham precincts)

Lack of Formal Political Service

Lower Name Recognition (than existing office holders)

Age

Analysis

Joe will be running in an off year, 2014, where no Presidential candidates will be on the ballot. That will suppress turnout to some extent, although a competitive Senate election to reelect Senator Kay Hagan should temper that decrease slightly. Most local pundits expect that the race to replace Congressman Price will result in a competitive and popular primary with a less competitive general election due to the heavy Democratic leaning of the District.

Increasing name recognition to reach (or get closer to) the 40% threshold in advance of formally announcing a run for the position is critical. Some of the candidates for the Democratic primary will already have reached this threshold due to currently serving on City Councils, County Commissions, etc. Other candidates will likely be community members who will have a loyal base of followers from their individual community activities. Due to the limited number of Democratic primaries over the past 20 years and a projected crowded field of candidates, it is difficult to calculate the number of votes that will be necessary to prevail (although estimates are included).

The critical overall component is, similar to the successful Presidential campaign of 2008, to define the race and maintain a consistent strategy while understanding what the opponents are doing. The Campaign cannot win should it allow opponents to dictate the terms of the race; instead the Campaign must set the agenda in crucial areas. That will not only build credibility in the candidacy, but will allow the Campaign to wage our candidacy on the issues important to the District. It will also allow us to define ourselves and remain authentic, two components of a successful campaign. Later on in the campaign, this will also make it easier to control the agenda and define our opponents.

Throughout the campaign, the Campaign must connect the Candidate’s background and record to the residents of the district. This is done through an aggressive free and paid media operation that highlights our effectiveness in critical areas of policy that are important to the District. Also similar to the Obama campaign, this effort also means undertaking a field program that finds undecided voters and gives them positive information about the Candidate. One other aspect of this strategy is to demonstrate that the Candidate is not a political insider, but is instead an active community member who is in touch with the needs of the District. The Candidate is simply taking his knowledge of the District and bringing a Main Street perspective to Washington. In the District, this will take the form of emphasizing grassroots progressive efforts that the Candidate has led or in which he has participated. Rather than apologizing for progressive views, the Candidate must explain why they reflect the needs of the District. Success will be attained by running a campaign that is offensive-minded and proactive, by deepening the connection between the Candidate to his constituents, and by defining opponents and setting the agenda.

Fundraising is critical and will begin prior to announcing my candidacy. The average victorious House race in 2008 cost $1.1 million and a candidate’s viability in a competitive field will be largely determined by the fundraising success of the candidate . Unlike other more Democratic/Republican competitive Districts, a significant part of this spending will occur in the primary. Other important issues will be support of the party infrastructure, local PACs (such as the People’s Alliance and Durham Committee on the Affairs of Black People), and critical media outlets (such as the Independent and News and Observer).

Target Areas

Based on the demographics of the District and varied constituencies, targeted materials touting different aspects of the Candidate’s credentials will be critical (ex. military service to conservative precincts). The Campaign will focus on all demographic groups of common concerns, values, and perspectives with the goal of focusing on targeted messages within individual groups identified below:

· In STRONG DEMOCRATIC areas: (Primary Political Focus) Can be more partisan and will tout progressive credentials, will align myself with party and grassroots progressive groups, seek County Parties’ and grassroots organizational support

· In DEMOCRATIC PLURALITY areas: Can be somewhat partisan and will tout progressive credentials, will align myself with party and grassroots progressive groups, seek County Parties’ and grassroots organizational support, will also tout military service and business credentials.

· In REPUBLICAN PLURALITY areas: Will tout personal business and military experience, focus on veteran and business group endorsements

· In URBAN areas: Will focus on job creation and experience fighting for universal access to health care, will seek critical endorsements from Durham Committee and will focus effort accordingly

· In SUBURBAN areas: (Primary Geographic Focus) Can be more partisan and will tout progressive credentials, will align myself with party and grassroots progressive groups, seek County Parties’ and grassroots organizational support

· In BIGGEST PRECINCTS: Narrow down to fit particular target areas described above but will provide additional attention to larger precincts in the form of events, additional GOTV efforts, more frequent mailers, etc.

Campaign Timeline

May 2010 – December 2012: Decision Making

· Candidate/Family Discussions: Determine whether everyone is on board for the campaign and elected office.

· Establish “Kitchen Cabinet”: Assemble group of trusted advisors for determining whether to run for Congress. They will be comprised of community members and knowledgeable political operatives (Target: 6 – 12 people).

· Focus on Community Involvement: Continue to be involved in various aspects of the community, focusing on reach and credibility on key District issues.

January 2013 – April 2013: Pre-Announcement

· Finalize Campaign Plan: Include any additional information available at the time including declared or projected candidates, demographic changes, etc.

· Conduct Unofficial Focus Groups: This will enable the Candidate to get additional information about priorities of the constituents.

· Meet with Community Leaders: These meetings will enable the Candidate to get perspectives from the critical community leaders and possibly thoughts on the candidacy. This will lay the foundation for potential critical endorsements.

· Begin Fundraising Operation: This will include establishing the fundraising committee as well as getting early commitments for money once the campaign becomes official. It will also include commitments for events and party money.

· Begin Media Operation: This will include identifying press contacts and developing a database of media contacts for future use.

· Begin Research Operation: Identify potential opponents and conduct opposition research on key candidates. Obtain recent voter data for use in targeting model and conduct preliminary poll (if name identification justifies)

May 2013: Announce Campaign

· Organize and Formalize Campaign: Create the necessary infrastructure for the campaign and formalize structure as well as generating materials.

· Organize Field Campaign: Create the framework for the field campaign, which will evolve over the course of the campaign.

· Complete Necessary Logistics: Find office space and set up bank accounts. Get contributions from Candidate and Fundraising Committee

· Begin to Engage Volunteers: This includes identifying volunteer leaders as well as people from the base who are interested in volunteering.

· Announce: This will include both a press conference and filing of official campaign documents. It will also include launching a campaign website.

June 2013 – September 2013: The Initial Wave

· Voter Outreach: Identify supporters, opponents and undecided voters. Solidify the base early in order to recruit volunteers and volunteer leaders. Conduct initial mailing (introductory letter) to increase name recognition and knowledge of qualifications in the District.

· Build Coalitions: Find potential organizational partners for the campaign, including grassroots organizations, issue based organizations and PACs.

· Start Voter Registration Efforts: This is especially important if disenfranchised voters increase in numbers after the 2010 election.

· Begin Press Outreach: Build relationships with key reporters and send press releases regularly. Hold press events if appropriate.

· Execute Fundraising Plan: This will begin with a Kickoff Fundraiser event and will include call time as well as logistical items (fundraising/campaign management tool)

· Conduct Initial Volunteer Training

· Write GOTV Plan

October 2013 – April 2014: Full Speed Ahead

· Continue Volunteer Management: This will include recruiting and training new volunteers as well as managing existing volunteers. Volunteers should be fully engaged in community events as well as running a number of campaign activities.

· Kickoff Field Persuasion: Move from Base to Undecided voters, now that they are firmly supporting the campaign.

· Continue Media: Start with earned and paid media efforts. Get on local programs to promote the message and continue to stay engaged with the media. This will include regular press releases.

· Continue Fundraising: Candidate call time should be in full swing. One or two larger events should take place.

· Utilize Data Management Systems: Utilize the campaign management tools to make data driven decisions, especially in volunteer recruiting and fundraising. Conduct polling as needed.

· Conduct Community Outreach: This should take the form of a few mailers, including informative and comparative pieces closer to primary day.

· Capture Critical Endorsements: Develop answers and practice for interviews with critical endorsers for the primary.

· Conduct Periodic Reviews of Campaign: This is important to emphasize positive campaign elements and make course corrections on those that are ineffective.

April 2014 – May 2014: Primary and Early Voting

· Focus on GOTV: All efforts should be on getting out the vote. This should factor in early voting which will start in Mid-April.

Late May 2014 – June 2014: Following Up on Primary

· Thank All Supporters: Focus on building on victory in primary election.

· Expand Fundraising List: Contact big donors from opponents’ campaigns to see if they would like to support campaign. Also, contact existing donors to take advantage of primary victory and get additional donations.

· Utilize Primary Victory: Utilize the victory in the primary to get additional media attention. It is also helpful to reengage field operations.

· Conduct Data Analysis: Get information from primary to make additional course corrections. This will include a full meeting of all staff to adjust campaign plan.

· Revisit Voter ID: With the new candidates, revisit for, against, and undecided categories.

· Solidify Base: Reach out to opponents’ base. This must take the form of an organized effort since base vote will be critical in general election.

· Meet with Coalition Partners: Conduct meetings with coalition partners, including those that supported opponents in the primary.

July 2014 – September 2014: Building Toward the General

· Continue Volunteer Management: This will include recruiting and training new post-primary volunteers as well as managing existing volunteers.

· Continue Field Persuasion: Move from Base to Undecided voters, now that they are firmly supporting the campaign. Utilize a combination of door knocking and weekly blitzes.

· Continue Voter Registration Efforts: This is especially important if disenfranchised voters increase in numbers after the 2010 election.

· Continue Media: Continue earned and paid media efforts. Get on local programs to promote the message and continue to stay engaged with the media. This will include regular press releases.

· Continue Fundraising: Candidate call time should be in full swing. Make sure to target primary opponent donors, who should have already started to contribute.

· Utilize Data Management Systems: Utilize the campaign management tools to make data driven decisions, especially in volunteer recruiting and fundraising.

· Conduct Community Outreach: This should take the form of a few mailers, including positive issue pieces and comparative pieces closer to Election Day.

· Begin GOTV efforts: GOTV efforts should start toward the end of this period and any necessary changes to the GOTV plan need to be finalized before this effort.

October 2014 – November 2014: GOTV

· Focus on GOTV: All efforts should be on getting out the vote. This should factor in early voting which will start in Mid-October.

Finance Plan

Overview

In order for us to be successful, the Campaign must have enough funds to set and dominate the agenda in every critical element of the campaign. The Candidate must run a paid media campaign that defines the Candidate, defines opponents and overcomes the advantages of current political officeholders. We must also build a field operation that identifies and persuades swing voters, and brings supporters to the polls on Election Day.

It will certainly be a challenging campaign, but our goal is to raise $800,000. This will enable us to run an aggressive paid media campaign as well as pay for our field organization and our coordinated campaign mail program. We will reach our $800,000 goal by raising $600,000 from individuals and $200,000 from PACs. This is consistent with our grassroots focus, which puts the primary fundraising responsibility on individual donors over PACs.

Individuals

Preliminary research indicates that the goal of $600,000 of funding is attainable. In developing an initial list of potential donors, the total amount raised was about $150,000 or 25% of the total fundraising goal. A majority of individual contributions will be raised through Candidate call time, which is the foundation for all of our individual fundraising efforts. Our fundraising success will be determined by the number of hours that the Candidate is able to devote to call time. Candidate call time will be improved through continually providing new lists from proven contributors. We will work with the list of elected officials as well as any endorsers. In addition, lists from party committees like the DCCC and the DNC will uncover more names and potential leads. Besides the candidate and party lists, we will utilize the professional association lists.

PACs

Initial research indicates that the goal of $200,000 is also attainable, with most of this funding coming after the primary. A number of factors lead to this optimism:

· The Democratic Party will want to hold onto a seat that they have held for the majority of the past 40 years. However, none of the candidates will have sufficient resources, unless one can self-finance or someone runs as a lateral move (such as a current statewide officeholder).

· The Research Triangle Park businesses, especially healthcare and other heavily regulated industries, will want to increase influence with new viable candidates.

· The Candidate can take advantage of existing business and healthcare networks to increase access to PACs.

· Implementation of health reform legislation enacted in 2010 will be of primary concern with health insurance exchanges beginning to take effect in 2014.

Events

Events will allow the campaign to increase visibility and allow donors to feel like they are an active part of the campaign. Below are a few options for different campaign events to take place as part of the campaign:

· Occupational Meetings: These could especially focus on business owners/entrepreneurs and health professionals and would focus on critical issues to the campaign. The expectation for fundraising would be lower, as the cost of attending would affordable to the masses.

· Guest Speakers: These events would be hosted by guest speakers, who are friends or colleagues of the candidate. They could potentially charge higher rates due to the quality of the guest speaker.

· Political Events: These events would be centered on specific events, such as the opening of headquarters or launching of the campaign.

· Family or Community Events: These would be based on family or community building. They would be primarily for outreach and organizing, rather than fundraising. However, there would be a fundraising component to them. For example, they could include block parties or house meetings. The ticket price and the format for these events will vary.

Direct Mail

The campaign will utilize direct mail as part of a two part process designed to raise interest in the campaign among large donors and then have the Candidate follow-up with a phone call. For small donors, the Campaign will schedule re-solicits every six weeks. Mailings will include opportunities for recurring donations to the campaign as well as will provide information about the candidate. People who sign up to be recurring donors will be invited to be a part of the campaign, including attending strategy meetings. The campaign will also have volunteers and community leaders conduct telephone calls to small donors.

The Internet

The campaign will utilize the web address: www.Joefornc4.com . The 2008 Presidential campaign highlighted the importance of online technology as a fundraising and communications tool. The website enables fundraising and maintains donor contact by retaining their e-mail addresses and providing campaign updates. It can also be utilized for donations that are offered during phone banks as well as re-soliciting donors. To drive web traffic, the candidate should encourage listeners to visit the website. Fundraising letters should encourage readers to donate over the Internet. Response envelopes will ask for contributors email addresses. Our web site address and toll free phone number needs to be included in our TV and radio ads, our literature and campaign signs and our fundraising stationery.

Campaign Budget

Category	Expense
Overhead
Rent	$10,000
Phones/E-mail/Technology	$4,000
Office Supplies/Misc.	$3,000
Total Overhead	$17,000
Staff
Paid Staff (ex. Manager)	$50,000
Volunteer Costs	$1,000
Fundraising Consultant	$20,000
GOTV Coordinator	$4,000
Office Manager	$5,000
Polling Consultant	$40,000
Total Staff	$120,000
Fundraising
Mail	$16,000
Events	$10,000
Call Time	$4,000
Total	$30,000
Percentage of Total	20.9% (Target: 20%)
Media/Voter Contact
Signs	$4,500
Radio (including Production)	$80,000
Television (including Production)	$240,000
Print	$10,000
Direct Mail	$280,000
Literature Printing	$10,000
Phones	$7,500
Total	$672,000
Overall Total	$799,000

� 2000 Census.

� 2000 Census.

� DNC Voter File

� AmericanGOTV

� Only includes 2008 votes on day of election, not early or absentee voters.

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