Collection and Use of Data in Economics

Office of Immigration Statistics POLICY DIRECTORATE

Estimates of the Lawful Permanent Resident Population in the United States: January 2013 BRYAN BAKER AND NANCY RYTINA

This report presents estimates of the lawful permanent resident (LPR) population living in the United States on January 1, 2013. LPRs, also known as “green card” holders, are immigrants who have been granted lawful permanent residence in the United States but have not yet become U.S. citizens. Estimates of the total LPR population and the LPR population eligible to apply to naturalize are tabulated by country of birth, state of residence, and the year LPR status was obtained. Data for the estimates were obtained primarily from administrative records of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The methodology used for the 2013 estimates is similar to that used in previous DHS estimates (see Rytina, 2013).

In summary, an estimated 13.1 million LPRs lived in the United States on January 1, 2013, and 8.8 million of them were eligible to naturalize. The majority (63 per- cent) obtained LPR status in 2000 or later.

BACKGROUND

Data on the size and characteristics of the foreign-born population are used to assess the impact of immigra- tion in the United States. The decennial census and monthly household surveys of the Census Bureau include questions on place of birth, citizenship, and year of entry into the United States. These data provide a wealth of information on the total foreign-born pop- u l at ion, n at u r a l i ze d c it i ze n s, a nd non- c it i ze n s. However, national population data on the major sub- categories of non-citizens, including LPRs, students, temporary workers, and unauthorized immigrants, are not readily available from any source and must be esti- mated. An alien registration program requiring all legally resident aliens to report their status annually to the legacy Immigration and Naturalization Service was discontinued by Congress in 1981. Immigration data col- lected by DHS measure administrative events such as the number of aliens granted lawful permanent residence or the number approved for asylum, but not the population of legal permanent residents or the population of asylees living in the United States at a point in time.

The LPR population estimates in this report were derived primarily from Census and DHS data by esti- mating a base population as of a certain date and adding subsequent components of population change (see Passel and Clark, 1998; Hoefer, 1996). A variant of this approach has been used by DHS since 2002 to estimate the resident LPR population.

METHODOLOGY

Separate population estimates were developed for LPRs who entered the United States before 1980 and during the 1980–2012 period. The two sets of estimates were added together to obtain the overall estimated popula- tion as of January 1, 2013.

Estimates for LPR Entrants Prior to 1980

All non-citizen residents of the United States in 2013 who entered before 1980 were assumed to be lawful permanent residents. Under the registry provisions of immigration law, aliens are eligible for LPR status if they have lived in the United States continuously since January 1, 1972 and meet other basic requirements. Additionally, certain persons living in the United States before 1982 as unauthorized residents were permitted to adjust to LPR status under the provisions of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. For the same reasons, DHS estimates of the unauthorized

immigrant population assume that the foreign-born population entering the United States before 1980 is legally resident (see Baker and Rytina, 2013).

Estimates of pre-1980 LPR entrants were obtained from data on non-citizen residents with a year of entry prior to 1980 from the 2012 American Community Survey (ACS) of the U.S. Census Bureau. The data were tabulated by year of entry, country of birth, and state of residence.

Estimates for LPR Entrants from 1980 through 2012

Data on LPRs who entered the United States between January 1980 and December 2012 were obtained from case tracking sys- tems of USCIS that contain information from applications for LPR status and naturalization. LPR status applicants living in the United States use the Application to Adjust Status to Permanent Residence (Form I-485), whereas applicants living outside the United States use either the Application for Immigrant Visa and Alien Registration (Form DS-230) or the Electronic Application for Immigrant Visa and Alien Registration (Form DS-260) of the U.S. Department of State. I-485 applicants who become LPRs are referred to as “adjustments of status,” and DS-230 or DS-260 applicants who subsequently become LPRs are known as “new arrivals.” Naturalization applicants aged 18 and over use the Application for Naturalization (Form N-400). Basic appli- cant information maintained in the case tracking systems includes alien identification number (A-number), date of birth, country of birth, gender, U.S. address, date LPR status or naturalization was obtained, and category of admission (LPR status applicants only).

LPRs who subsequently naturalized were excluded by matching individual LPR and naturalization records by A-number. Several adjustments were then made to reduce the aggregated total inflow of 1980–2012 LPR entrants to the population remaining after 2012. The adjustments for emigration and mortality are method- ologically the same as those used in DHS unauthorized immigrant population estimates. An adjustment for derivative citizenship is unique to the LPR population estimates.

LPRs who entered the United States before 1980 were excluded as these persons were counted in the pre-1980 entrant population from the ACS. The date of entry for “new arrival” LPRs is the date of approval for LPR status. For “adjustment of status” LPRs, however, the entry date is usually not recorded directly so the year of last entry prior to adjustment of status was selected as an approxima- tion. Year of last entry was imputed where missing (approximately 40 percent of adjustment of status records during 1998–2005) using category of admission, year of LPR adjustment, and known last entry date. Additional adjustments, described below, were made for derivative citizenship, mortality, and emigration.

Derivative Citizenship. In most cases, LPRs under 18 years of age auto- matically become U.S. citizens upon the naturalization of a par- ent. Although not required by law, those who derive citizenship through the naturalization of a parent may apply for a certificate documenting citizenship. The number of LPRs deriving citizen- ship was estimated from applications filed for certificates of citi- zenship from 1980 through 2012. Although this approach, like its

predecessor,1 produces a conservative estimate of derivative citi- zenship, it is straightforward and produces a slightly larger and presumably more accurate estimate for recent years.

1 For LPR population estimates for years prior to 2009, OIS assumed that the cumulative “citizen- ship” rate (derivative citizenship plus naturalization) for persons who were under 16 years of age when they became LPRs was the same as the rate for persons who were 16 years of age when obtaining LPR status.

Mortality. LPRs were survived to 2013 by sex and age at the time LPR status was obtained using mortality rates from 1999–2001 life tables (Arias et al., 2008). The median age of foreign nationals at the time they become LPRs is about 32 years (Monger and Yankay, 2014). As a result, mortality has very little impact on the estimates for recent LPRs but a greater impact for those who became LPRs during the 1980s.

Emigration. Most observers agree that a sizable number of LPRs emi- grate from the United States. The U.S. government has not col- lected official statistics since 1957. National data that directly measure emigration do not exist. This report uses an average annual rate of emigration of approximately 1 percent based on estimates for the foreign-born population from Census data (Ahmed and Robinson, 1994). The rates vary by years of residence in the United States and naturalization status. (LPRs who subse- quently naturalized were not considered at risk of emigration until after becoming citizens). LPRs who entered the United States as asylees and refugees were assumed not to emigrate.

After adjusting for derivative citizenship, mortality, and emigra- tion, estimates for 1980–2012 entrants were tabulated by the year LPR status was obtained, country of birth, and state of residence. The use of state of residence provided on the application for per- manent residence ignores subsequent internal migration and affects the state-level estimates to the extent that migration to and from each state is not the same.

LPR Population Eligible to Naturalize

LPRs are eligible to apply for naturalization after meeting U.S. resi- dency and other requirements. Most LPRs are required to meet a five-year residency requirement for naturalization, while spouses of U.S. citizens are generally subject to a three-year requirement. There are several other exceptions to the five-year residency requirement, most of which affect small numbers of immigrants.

This report estimates the LPR population eligible to naturalize based on residency requirements using class of admission and the year LPR status was obtained. All LPRs, except those whose LPR status was based on marriage to a U.S. citizen, were assumed to have a five-year residency requirement for naturalization. Certain categories of immigrants receive credit for the period prior to the actual grant of lawful permanent resident status. The credited time or earlier dates are not included in the LPR records used for this analysis and must be estimated. For example, asylees are credited one year in asylum status toward lawful permanent resident status. Asylees were therefore assumed to be eligible to naturalize four years after approval of the adjustment of status application. Immigrants adjusting to LPR status as refugees, Lautenberg parol- ees, or through cancellation of removal also receive credit for resi- dence in the United States prior to the actual grant of lawful

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permanent residence based, respectively, on the date of entry into the United States as a refugee, the date of parole, or the date of cancellation of removal. It was assumed that two years elapse between the earlier dates and the date of approval of the applica- tion for permanent residence so that these LPRs are eligible to apply for naturalization approximately three years after approval of their application for adjustment.

FINDINGS

Overview

An estimated 13.1 million lawful permanent residents (LPRs) were living in the United States on January 1, 2013 (see Table 1). Of the total 13.1 million, an estimated 8.8 million were eligible to naturalize. Over the long term, the size of the LPR population changes slowly because increases in the number of persons becoming LPRs each year are offset by persons naturalizing. During the five-year period 2008 to 2013, the LPR population and LPR population eligible to naturalize increased by less than one million.

Table 1.

Size of the Lawful Permanent Resident Population Lawful permanent residents 2011 2012 2013

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,070,000 13,300,000 13,140,000 Eligible to naturalize . . . . . . . . 8,530,000 8,770,000 8,790,000 Not eligible to naturalize . . . . . 4,540,000 4,530,000 4,350,000

Note: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

Components. The entries in Table 2 show the contribution of each data source and adjustment to the final estimated LPR population in 2013. According to USCIS administrative records, 28.4 million foreign nationals obtained LPR status between 1980 and 2012. By the end of 2012, an estimated 11.7 million (41 percent) had nat- uralized; 1.4 million (5 percent) had derived citizenship before becoming 18 years old; and 3.7 million (13 percent) had died or emigrated. An estimated 4.4 million LPRs had not met the resi- dency requirement for naturalization, leaving 8.8 million LPRs eli- gible to apply to naturalize in 2013.

Table 2.

Components of the Lawful Permanent Resident Population: 2013 Category Number

LPR status obtained between 1980–2012 . . . . . . 28,370,000 minus Naturalizations 1980–2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,680,000 minus Derivative citizenship 1980–2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,400,000 minus Emigration and mortality 1980–2012 . . . . . . . . . 3,650,000 equals LPRs survived to 1/1/2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,640,000 plus LPR status obtained prior to 1980 (ACS) . . . . . . . 1,500,000

equals Estimated LPR population as of 1/1/2013 . . . . . 13,140,000 minus LPRs not eligible to naturalize as of 1/1/2013 . . 4,350,000 equals Estimated LPR population eligible to naturalize as

of 1/1/2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,790,000

Note: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

Error. The major sources of error in the estimates are the assump- tions made about emigration, mortality, and derivative citizenship.

Errors in the estimate of these components affect the 1980–2012 entrants portion of the 2013 LPR estimate. The estimates derived from the 2012 ACS for LPRs entering before 1980 are subject to both sampling and nonsampling error. The estimated margin of error at the 90 percent confidence level for the 1.5 million esti- mate is less than plus or minus 0.1 million. Estimates by country of birth and state of residence are based on smaller numbers of observations and are affected more by sampling error. Major sources of non-sampling error include possible misreporting of citizenship status and year of entry by ACS respondents.

Year LPR Status Obtained

Forty-nine percent of the LPR population in 2013 obtained per- manent residence in 2005 or later (see Table 3). Thirty-two per- cent gained LPR status between 1990 and 2004, and 19 percent became LPRs before 1990.

Table 3.

Year LPR Status Obtained for the Lawful Permanent Resident Population: 2013

Year

All lawful permanent residents

Lawful permanent residents eligible to naturalize

Number Percent Number Percent

Total . . . . . . . 13,140,000 100.0 8,790,000 100.0 Before 1960 . . . . 160,000 1.2 160,000 1.8 1960–1969 . . . . . 390,000 3.0 390,000 4.4 1970–1979 . . . . . 950,000 7.2 950,000 10.8 1980–1989 . . . . . 990,000 7.5 990,000 11.3 1990–1999 . . . . . 2,420,000 18.4 2,380,000 27.0 2000–2004 . . . . . 1,760,000 13.4 1,590,000 18.0 2005–2009 . . . . . 3,670,000 27.9 2,340,000 26.6 2010–2012 . . . . . 2,810,000 21.4 — 0.0

— Represents zero. Note: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

Country of Birth

Mexico was the leading country of origin of the LPR population in 2013 (see Table 4). An estimated 3.3 million or 25 percent of LPRs came from Mexico. The next leading source countries were China (0.7 million) and the Philippines (0.6 million), followed by India (0.5 million) and the Dominican Republic (0.5 million). Forty- two percent of LPRs in 2013 were born in one of these five coun- tries. The 10 leading countries of origin, which also include Cuba, Vietnam, El Salvador, Canada, and the United Kingdom, repre- sented 55 percent of the LPR population.

The leading countries of origin of the LPR population eligible to apply to naturalize are similar to those for the total LPR popula- tion. Differences in rankings tend to reflect either country of ori- gin variation in the propensity to naturalize or changes in LPR flows and naturalization eligibility.

State of Residence

The data in Table 5 show the estimated LPR population for the leading states of residence. Because the data for most of the popu- lation are based on residence at the time LPR status was obtained, the relative rankings are more accurate than the actual population estimates by state.

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Table 4.

Country of Birth of Lawful Permanent Resident Population: 2013

Country of birth

Lawful permanent residents Lawful permanent residents

eligible to naturalize

Number Percent Number Percent

Total . . . . . . . 13,140,000 100.0 8,790,000 100.0 Mexico . . . . . . . . 3,280,000 25.0 2,670,000 30.3 China, People's

Republic . . . . . 660,000 5.0 310,000 3.6 Philippines . . . . . . 580,000 4.4 340,000 3.9 India . . . . . . . . . . 540,000 4.1 250,000 2.8 Dominican

Republic . . . . . 480,000 3.7 300,000 3.4 Cuba . . . . . . . . . . 410,000 3.1 290,000 3.3 Vietnam . . . . . . . . 330,000 2.5 200,000 2.3 El Salvador . . . . . 320,000 2.5 250,000 2.9 Canada . . . . . . . . 320,000 2.4 260,000 3.0 United Kingdom . . 290,000 2.2 240,000 2.7 Korea, South . . . . 290,000 2.2 180,000 2.1 Haiti . . . . . . . . . . 250,000 1.9 160,000 1.8 Jamaica . . . . . . . . 240,000 1.8 160,000 1.8 Colombia . . . . . . . 230,000 1.7 140,000 1.5 Guatemala . . . . . . 190,000 1.4 130,000 1.5 Germany . . . . . . . 180,000 1.4 150,000 1.7 Japan . . . . . . . . . 140,000 1.1 120,000 1.4 Poland . . . . . . . . . 140,000 1.1 110,000 1.3 Peru . . . . . . . . . . 140,000 1.1 90,000 1.0 Pakistan . . . . . . . 140,000 1.1 60,000 0.7 Other . . . . . . . . . . 3,990,000 30.3 2,380,000 27.1

Note: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

Table 5.

State of Residence of Lawful Permanent Resident Population: 2013

State of residence

Lawful permanent residents Lawful permanent residents

eligible to naturalize

Number Percent Number Percent

Total . . . . . . . 13,140,000 100.0 8,790,000 100.0 California . . . . . . . 3,310,000 25.2 2,440,000 27.8 New York . . . . . . . 1,650,000 12.6 1,050,000 11.9 Texas . . . . . . . . . 1,320,000 10.1 950,000 10.8 Florida . . . . . . . . . 1,260,000 9.6 830,000 9.5 New Jersey . . . . . 600,000 4.5 360,000 4.1 Illinois . . . . . . . . . 540,000 4.1 370,000 4.3 Massachusetts . . 330,000 2.5 200,000 2.3 Virginia . . . . . . . . 280,000 2.2 160,000 1.9 Washington . . . . . 280,000 2.1 180,000 2.0 Georgia . . . . . . . . 250,000 1.9 150,000 1.7 Arizona . . . . . . . . 250,000 1.9 180,000 2.0 Maryland . . . . . . . 250,000 1.9 140,000 1.6 Pennsylvania . . . . 250,000 1.9 140,000 1.6 Michigan . . . . . . . 210,000 1.6 130,000 1.5 North Carolina . . . 160,000 1.2 90,000 1.1 Connecticut . . . . . 160,000 1.2 110,000 1.2 Ohio . . . . . . . . . . 150,000 1.1 90,000 1.0 Colorado . . . . . . . 150,000 1.1 90,000 1.1 Nevada . . . . . . . . 130,000 1.0 90,000 1.0 Minnesota . . . . . . 130,000 1.0 70,000 0.8 Other . . . . . . . . . . 1,470,000 11.2 960,000 10.9

Note: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

California was the leading state of residence with an estimated 3.3 million LPRs in 2013. The next leading states of residence were New York (1.7 million), Texas (1.3 million), and Florida (1.3 mil- lion). These four states were home to 57 percent of LPRs in 2013. The next leading states of residence were New Jersey, Illinois, Massachusetts, Virginia, Washington, and Georgia. The 10 leading states represented 75 percent of the LPR population. The leading states of residence of the estimated LPR population and population eligible to naturalize were generally the same.

REFERENCES

Ahmed, Bashir and J. Gregory Robinson, 1994. “Estimates of Emigration of the Foreign-Born Population: 1980–1990.” Technical Working Paper No. 9, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC. http://www.census.gov/population/www/ documentation/twps0009/twps0009.html.

Arias, Elizabeth and Lester R. Curtin, Rong Wei and Robert N. Anderson, 2008. “U.S. Decennial Life Tables for 1999–2001, United States Life Tables,” National Vital Statistics Report 57 (1), National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr57/nvsr57_01.pdf

Baker, Bryan and Nancy Rytina, 2013. “Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2012.” Office of Immigration Statistics, Policy Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security. http://www. dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ois_ill_pe_2012_2.pdf

Hoefer, Michael D., 1996. “State Population Estimates: Legal Permanent Residents and Aliens Eligible to Apply for Naturalization,” U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service, Washington, DC.

Monger, Randall and James Yankay, 2014. “U.S. Legal Permanent Residents: 2013.” Office of Immigration Statistics, Policy Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security. http://www. dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ois_lpr_fr_2013.pdf

Passel, Jeffrey S. and Rebecca L. Clark, 1998. “Immigrants in New York: Their Legal Status, Income and Taxes.” Urban Institute, Washington, DC.

Rytina, Nancy, 2013. “Estimates of the Legal Permanent Resident Population in 2012.” Office of Immigration Statistics, Policy Directorate, U.S. Department of Homeland Security. http://www. dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/ois_lpr_pe_2012.pdf