SUMMATIVE ASSIGNMENT A+ Tutorial Use As Guide

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SUMMATIVE ASSIGNMENT

Question:

Choose the share NYSE:WMT. Take +1,000 observations and answer the following questions:

a) Does the price series have a unit root? (30%)

b) Fit the return series an appropriate ARMA model. (35%)

c) Analyse the volatility of the return. (35%)

Guidance:

1. You will be marked according to how well you conduct the econometric exercises, estimations, forecasts and your critical evaluation including a critical comparison of your results with those provided in the literature. The report will be marked out of 100.

2. Do not include computer printouts. Provide instead a table of relevant information.

Overall word limit 1250 words maximum (excluding tables/figures/references)

The word count should:

· Include all the text, including title, preface, introduction, in-text citations, quotations, footnotes and any other item not specifically excluded below.

· Exclude diagrams, tables (including tables/lists of contents and figures), equations, executive summary/abstract, acknowledgements, declaration, bibliography/list of references and appendices. However, it is not appropriate to use diagrams or tables merely as a way of circumventing the word limit. If a student uses a table or figure as a means of presenting his/her own words, then this is included in the word count.

Examiners will stop reading once the word limit has been reached, and work beyond this point will not be assessed. Checks of word counts will be carried out on submitted work, including any assignments or dissertations/business projects that appear to be clearly over-length. Checks may take place manually and/or with the aid of the word count provided via an electronic submission. Where a student has intentionally misrepresented their word count, the School may treat this as an offence under Section IV of the General Regulations of the University. Extreme cases may be viewed as dishonest practice under Section IV, 5 (a) (x) of the General Regulations.

Very occasionally it may be appropriate to present, in an appendix, material which does not properly belong in the main body of the assessment but which some students wish to provide for the sake of completeness. Any appendices will not have a role in the assessment – examiners are under no obligation to read appendices and they do not form part of the word count. Material that students wish to be assessed should always be included in the main body of the text.

MARKING GUIDELINES

Performance in the summative assessment for this module is judged against the following criteria:

1. Relevance to question

1. Organisation, structure and presentation

1. Depth of understanding

1. Analysis and discussion

1. Use of sources and referencing

1. Overall conclusions

Students are strongly advised to use Arial font size 11 for their assignments and to print double sided.

Assignments must be typed or word-processed on A4 paper using 1.5 or double spacing and with margins of 2-3 cm. Pages should be numbered and stapled together in the top left hand corner. The word count should include all the text (plus endnotes and footnotes), but exclude diagrams, tables, bibliography, references and appendices. Guidance on referencing can be found in your year handbook.

About  Appendix  

•  In a very limited number of cases it may be appropriate to put some additional material in an appendix. However note that appendices are (normally) excluded from the assessment and the examiners are under no obligation to read appendices. Also they are not included in the word count.

•  Thus material that you wish to be assessed on should always be included in the main body of the text.

The  Data   •  Get the daily closing price of your share from

Datastream, Google finance, etc. •  What share you choose is not important, as long

as your choice doesn't clash to others. •  A sample size of over 1000 is OK.

•  The return is defined as:  

1log logt t tr P P−= −

The  ques(ons   What you need to do: •  Test unit root of the price series. •  Specify ARIMA models for return. •  Specify volatility models for the return.

You don’t need to write an introduction or description of the

share. Just directly answer the questions. A list of references is needed at the end of your report.

Some  Assessment  Criteria  

•  When writing your report:

– Carefully report and discuss your results. Include relevant test results and critical values (especially for ADF test).

– Carefully present the models you have estimated or considered (we do care about correct notation!)

– Justify/explain your lack of results (if necessary).

Some  Assessment  Criteria  

– Don’t include a general textbook account of the econometric methods (e.g. do not repeat the text from the lecture notes or the books).

– Do not include unformatted output from Eviews (or other econometric software) but create your own tables etc.

– Quality of presentation is one of the assessment criteria (a sloppy presentation will lead to a lower mark!)