Group Decision Making
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decision_making.pptxDecision Making
Dr. Craig R. Seal
Organization Theory and Behavior
California State University, San Bernardino
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Dolan, S. & Lingham, T. (2012). Introduction to International Organizational Behavior. Global Higher Education Alliance.
Robbins, S. P. & Judge, T. A. (2012). Essentials of Organizational Behavior (11th ed.). Prentice Hall.
Janis, I. L. (November, 1971). Groupthink. Psychology Today, 5(6), 43–46.
Harvey, J. B. (1974). The Abilene paradox: the management of agreement. Organizational Dynamics, 3, 63–80.
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Contents
Decision-Making
Decision-Making Models
Decision-Making Biases
Group Decision-Making
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Learning Objectives
Understand the difference between programmed and non-programmed decisions
Understand the difference between lateral and vertical thinking
Compare and contrast rational decision making and bounded rationality
Identify biases in decision-making
Discuss the symptoms of Groupthink and Abiliene
Discuss group decision-making
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Decision Making
Decision Making Processes
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Decision Making
Decision making is the process of choosing from among alternatives
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Types of Decisions
Programmed
(ACADEMIC)
Well defined
Repetitive and routine
Formulated by others
Necessary information provided
One correct answer
Defined procedure
Limited methods to obtain answer
Disembodied from everyday experience
Non-Programmed
(PRACTICAL)
Ill defined
Novel and complex
Unformulated
Additional information required
Multiple ‘correct’ answers
No established procedure
Multiple methods to obtain answer
Embedded in everyday experience
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Approaches to Decisions
Lateral Thinking
(Creative)
Tries to find new ways for looking at things
Avoids looking for what is right
Analyzes ideas to determine how they might be used
Attempts to introduce discontinuity
Welcomes chance intrusions of information
Progresses by avoiding the obvious
Vertical Thinking
(Traditional)
Tries to find absolutes for judging relationships
Seeks a yes or no justification
Analyzes ideas to determine why they do not work
Seeks continuity by logically proceeding from step to step
Selectively chooses what to consider for generating ideas
Progresses by using established patterns
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Decision Making Models
Decision Making Processes
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Rational Decision Making (Classical Decision Theory)
Decision making is a rational process whereby decision makers seek to maximize the chances of achieving their desired outcome by considering all possible alternatives and consequences
Consistently rational and objective
Has complete information
Can identify all the relevant options
Can anticipate all likely consequences
Chooses the option with the highest utility
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Decision-Making Process
Define the problem
Gather information
Develop alternatives
Evaluate alternatives
Select an alternative
Implement the alternative
Monitor the implemented alterative
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Bounded Rationality (Theory of Administrative Man)
The limited information-processing capability of human beings makes it impossible to assimilate and understand all the information necessary to optimize
People’s ability to fully comprehend the nature of complex problems is limited (or bounded)
It is impossible to generate all possible alternative solutions to a problem
Complete analysis of each alternative cannot be accomplished (due to time and prediction constraints)
Satisficing is the practice of selecting an acceptable solutions, rather than the best solution (easy to identify, achieve, and implement)
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Decision Making Biases
Decision Making Processes
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Biases in Decision Making
Overconfidence – overly optimistic when asked to judge the probability that our answers are correct
Anchoring – giving too much value to the first piece of information
Confirming – selectively seeking out information that supports your point of view
Availability – base judgments on information that is readily available
Risk aversion – prefer a sure thing over a risky outcome
Hindsight – believe falsely, after the fact, that we would have predicted the outcome
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Groupthink (Janis, 1971)
Conflict-management crisis:
A mode of thinking, in which group members premature striving for agreement overrides their ability to realistically appraise alternative courses of action
Group pressure towards conformity
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Groupthink – Causes
Norms:
Group cohesiveness
Live up to rules of group
Strive toward agreement
Value membership
Stress:
Highly insulated groups
Stressful decision-making
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Groupthink – Symptoms
Illusion of invulnerability
Inherent morality of group
Rationalization
Stereotyping of outsiders
Self-censorship
Direct pressure
Mind-guarding
Illusion of unanimity
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Groupthink – Remedies
Ask each group member to assume the role of the critical evaluator
Have the leader avoid stating his or her position on the issue
Create several groups that work on the decision simultaneously.
Require each member to discuss deliberations with associates
Bring in outside experts to evaluate the group process.
Appoint a devil’s advocate to question the group’s course of action
Evaluate the competition motivations and intentions
Divide into two or more sub-groups
Once consensus is reached, encourage the group to rethink its position
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Abilene Paradox (Harvey, 1974)
Agreement-management crisis:
Organizations frequently take actions in contradiction to what they really want to do and therefore defeat the very purposes they are trying to achieve
Existential fear of the unknown
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Abilene – Symptoms
Nature of the situation
Steps required to cope
Fail to accurately communicate
Make collective decisions
Form subgroups
Repeat cycle
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Abilene – Landmarks
Action Anxiety
Negative Fantasies
Real Risk
Fear of Separation
Psychological Reversal of Risk and Certainty
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Abilene – Coping
Confront the Issues in a Team Setting
Conduct a Private Vote
Minimize Status Differences
Frame the Task as a Decision to be Made
Provide Formal Forum for Controversial View
Take Responsibility for Failure
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Group Decision-Making
Decision Making Processes
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Brainstorming
Technique to minimize self-censorship and encourage creative idea generation
Do not evaluate or discuss alternatives
Encourage freewheeling ideas
Welcome quantities of ideas
Encourage piggybacking on others ideas
Evaluation of ideas occurs after all ideas have been recorded
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Delphi Technique
Technique to encourage honesty by allowing participants to suggest opinions anonymously
Participants are presented with an issue and asked to provide potential solutions
A coordinator summarizes the responses and sends a summary back to the participants
Participants rate (and comment) on each solution
Coordinator tabulates the results
Process continues until consensus
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Nominal Group Technique
Silent generation of ideas – personal brainstorm
Round-robin recording of ideas – one idea per member
Discussion of ideas – for clarification only
Preliminary vote on item importance – rank order the ideas
Additional discussion – for clarification only
Final vote – on rank order of ideas
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Summary
Decision Making Processes
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Summary
Decision Making
Types of Decisions
Approaches to Decisions
Rational Decision Making
Bounded Rationality
Biases in Decision Making
Groupthink and Abilene
Group Decision Making Techniques
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Questions
Describe the difference between programmed and non-programmed decisions.
Provide an outline of the decision-making process
What is bounded rationality and how does it impact the decision making process?
Provide examples of the various biases in decision making.
Compare and contrast Groupthink and Abilene
Consider how to use the nominal group technique
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Discussion
Consider the class climate. Use the nominal group technique to suggest changes to the course that would improve student leaning and engagement.
References
Dolan, S. & Lingham, T. (2012). Introduction to International Organizational Behavior. Global Higher Education Alliance.
Harvey, J. B. (1974). The Abilene paradox: the management of agreement. Organizational Dynamics, 3, 63–80.
Janis, I. L. (November, 1971). Groupthink. Psychology Today, 5(6), 43–46.
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