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final_examination_2015-16_fall2.docLingxu Chen
MKTG347 Final Examination
1. Answer the following questions using the principles of the Bass model:
We know the market potential M= 500 (in thousands); the coefficient of innovation P= 0.03; the coefficient of imitation Q= 0.1. In the table below, please fill in t opriate numbers in all the cells highlighted in yellow. Show your calculations (up to the second decimal place) separately. (25 points)
Hint: Use the following equation:
S (t) = P (M- Yt-1) + Q (Yt-1/M)(M- Yt-1)
|
Period |
Sales from Innovators |
Sales from Imitators |
Total Sales in period |
Cumulative Sales till period |
Remaining Potential in time |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
500 |
|
1 |
500*0.03=15 |
0 |
15 |
0 |
500 |
|
2 |
485*0.03=14.55 |
0.1*(500-15)*(15/500)=1.46 |
14.55+1.455=16.01 |
0+15=15 |
500-15=485 |
|
3 |
469*0.03=14.07 |
0.1*(500-31.01)*(31.01/500)=2.91 |
14.07+2.81=16.98 |
16.01+15=31.01 |
500-31.01=469 |
|
4 |
452.02*0.03=13.56 |
0.1*(500-47.98)*(47.98/500)=4.34 |
13.56+4.34=17.90 |
16.98+31.01=47.98 |
500-47.98=452.02 |
|
5 |
434.12*0.03=13.02 |
0.1*(500-65.88)* (65.88/500)=5.72 |
13.02+5.72=18.74 |
17.90+47.98=65.88 |
500-65.88=434.12 |
|
6 |
415.37*0.03=12.46 |
0.1*(500-84.63)*(84.63/500)=7.03 |
12.46+7.03=19.49 |
18.74+65.88=84.63 |
500-84.63=415.37 |
|
7 |
395.88*0.03=11.88 |
0.1*(500-104.12)*(104.12/500)=8.24 |
11.88+8.24=20.12 |
19.49+84.63=104.12 |
500-104.12=395.88 |
|
8 |
375.76*0.03=11.27 |
0.1*(500-124.24)*(124.24/500)=9.34 |
11.27+9.34=20.61 |
20.12+104.12=124.24 |
500-124.24=375.76 |
|
9 |
355.15*0.03=10.65 |
0.1*(500-144.85*(144.85/500)=10.29 |
10.65+10.29=20.94 |
20.61+124.24=144.85 |
500-144.85=355.15 |
|
10 |
334.21*0.03=10.03 |
0.1*(500-165.79)*(165.79/500)=11.08 |
10.03+11.08=21.11 |
20.94+144.85=165.79 |
500-165.79=334.21 |
2. Company X wants to decide if it should undertake a test market for a new product it plans to launch. If the new product is launched without a test market being conducted, and if it is successful, the company expects an inflow of $ 30 million. If the company were to conduct a test market and then launch an improved product, the launch is expected to bring in $ 38 million. A failure loses $ 8 million; and a test market costs $ 3 million (25 points).
a. Compute the appropriate values of the outcomes for each of the nine end-nodes of the decision tree and fill in the appropriate numbers in the nine yellow boxes provided in Table 1 underneath the figure (5 points).
Table 1:
|
Outcome Value |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
|
|
37 |
-9 |
-1 |
37 |
-9 |
-1 |
30 |
-8 |
0 |
Calculation
*Success is worth 30 million if not test marketed
Success is worth $38 million after improvement by test market
A failure loses $8 million
A test market costs $3 million
(1) 38-1=37
(2) -8-1=-9
(3) 0-1=-1
(4) 38-1=37
(5) -8-1=-9
(6) 0-1=-1
(7) 30-0=30
(8) -8-0=-8
(9) 0-0=0
b. Compute the expected values at the nodes A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, and J and indicate them in the yellow boxes provided in Table 2 below. (15 points).
Table 2:
|
Expected Value |
A |
B |
C |
D |
E |
F |
G |
H |
I |
J |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A
c. What is your decision?(Insert X in the appropriate yellow box below) (5 points)
|
Test market |
Do not test market |
|
|
|
3. The following table shows consumer purchases by a consumer panel consisting of ten individuals. Time periods are shown from the first week after the launch of a new brand N through the 10th week of the test market. Assume this sample panel is completely representative of the market and forecast the long term percentage market share for the new brand N. C stands for all the competitive brands. (For full points show all your calculations (up to two decimal places) in the yellow region below the table) (10 points)
|
Week after launch |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
|
Consumer# |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
C |
N |
N |
N |
N |
N |
N |
N |
N |
N |
|
2 |
C |
N |
N |
N |
C |
N |
C |
N |
C |
C |
|
3 |
C |
C |
C |
N |
C |
C |
N |
C |
C |
C |
|
4 |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
|
5 |
C |
N |
C |
C |
C |
N |
C |
C |
C |
N |
|
6 |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
|
7 |
C |
C |
C |
N |
N |
N |
N |
C |
C |
C |
|
8 |
C |
C |
C |
N |
N |
C |
C |
N |
N |
N |
|
9 |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
C |
|
10 |
C |
N |
C |
N |
C |
N |
C |
N |
N |
N |
|
|
4. A group of customers is asked to rate five different brands of cars on two characteristics; power and speed. Each brand is rated on a scale of 1 to 5 for each characteristic. Each consumer is also asked to rate an ideal car. The average brand ratings across the group of customers are as follows: (25 points)
|
Brand |
Power (X) |
Speed (Y) |
|
A |
3 |
2 |
|
B |
4 |
3 |
|
C |
1 |
2 |
|
D |
2 |
4 |
|
Ideal |
4 |
5 |
Suppose an analyst found the following model to be true:
i
i
d
K
M
5
=
Where Mi = market share of any brand i
K = Constant
i
d
= distance of any brand i from the ideal brandBased on this mathematical model calculate the shares of brands A through D and report them in the yellow area below:
|
|
5. Essay Question
Please watch the guided video first, do some research on iPad Pro as well as briefly analyze the general market potential (tablet computer market), competitions, and sales potential of the product. Then answer the question "How likely do you think iPad Pro will succeed?". (15 points)
I require minimum three pages of high-quality work. Please strictly abide by the submission guideline below. The deadline is hard and fast this time, so please do not miss the due date.
Submission guidelines:
1) Font Size:12
2) Line Space: Double
3) Font Type: Times New Roman
4) Length: At least 3 pages
5) Please put only your name in the first line and start writing in the second line (please do not copy and paste the question into your writing).
6) Please do not simply copy and paste any type of intellectual source; if you want to put it in your work, please cite the source and also present it in your reference list.
Test Market
No Test Market
Good (.5)
Bad (.5)
Go
No
Success (.9)
Fail (.1)
No sales
Success (.1)
Fail (.9)
No sales
Success (.5)
Fail (.5)
No sales
A
B
C
D
E
F
H
I
J
G
No
Go
Go
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
PAGE
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