Time Series Analysis
shaon.3
time_series_analysis_and_forecasting.docx
Exercises 20.47–20.51 are based on the following problem.
Xr20-47 The revenues (in $millions) of a chain of ice cream stores are listed for each quarter during the previous 5 years.
|
|
Year |
||||
|
Quarter |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
|
1 |
16 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
21 |
|
2 |
25 |
27 |
31 |
29 |
30 |
|
3 |
31 |
32 |
40 |
45 |
52 |
|
4 |
24 |
23 |
27 |
24 |
32 |
· 20.47 Plot the time series.
· 20.48 Discuss why exponential smoothing is not recommended as a forecasting tool in this problem.
· 20.49 Use regression analysis to determine the trend line.
· 20.50 Determine the seasonal indexes.
· 20.51 Using the seasonal indexes and trend line, forecast revenues for the next four quarters.
Submit your answers in a Microsoft Excel workbook, with each problem on a separate worksheet. Label each tab in the workbook with the exercise number. Highlight the answers in yellow and provide an interpretation in a text box.
Exercises
20.47
–
20.51 are based on the following problem.
Xr20
-
47
The revenues (in $millions) of a chain of ice cream stores are listed for each quarter
during the previous 5 years.
Year
Quarter
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1
16
14
17
18
21
2
25
27
31
29
30
3
31
32
40
45
52
4
24
23
27
24
32
·
20.47
Plot the time series.
·
20.48
Discuss why exponential smoothing is not recommended as a forecasting tool in
this problem.
·
20.49
Use regression analysis to determine the trend line.
·
20.50
Determine the seasonal indexes.
·
20.51
Using the seasonal indexes and trend line, forecast revenues
for the next four
quarters.
Submit your answers in a Mi
crosoft Excel workbook, with each problem on a separate
worksheet. Label each tab in the workbook with the exercise number. Highlight the answers in
yellow and provide an interpretation in a text box.
