Essay on cause and effect of El Nino
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Perera, J. (1997, Dec 26). EL NINO - THE GLOBAL WEATHER PHENOMENON. Inter Press Service Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/446072605?accountid=8289
EL NINO - THE GLOBAL WEATHER PHENOMENON
LONDON, Dec. 26 (IPS) -- In March 1997, sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean began increasing -- the beginning of the "El Nino" weather system that, linked with the so-called "Southern Oscillation," has become notorious its global effects.
The El Nino of 1982-83 caused severe flooding and weather damage in Latin America as well as drought in parts of Asia. The last event, in 1991-92 brought severe drought to Southern Africa.
This year's El Nino is regarded by various experts as one of the most severe this century with record Pacific surface temperatures.
It is expected to continue well into 1998.
El Nino was the name given by the fishermen of northern Peru during the 19th century to describe the flow ofwarm equatorial waters southward around Christmas time. Normally the waters were cold and flowed from south to north.
But periodically the waters would reverse their flow and become warm. This caused the fish food chain to collapse as the warm current blocked the nutrient-rich cold water that rises from the bottom of the ocean. The fish died or moved away and catches would fall. This usually reached its peak around Christmas holiday, and the sailors named it "El Nino" (the Christ Child).
However, Peruvian scientists later linked more intense changes that took place every few years with catastrophic seasonal flooding along the normally arid coast.
At the beginning of the 20th century, British climatologist Gilbert Walker, head of the Indian Meteorological Service, began to investigate connections between the Asian monsoon and other climatic changes. He had been asked in 1904 to find a way to predict the pattern of India's monsoons after an 1899 famine caused by monsoon failure.
Unaware of El Nino, he discovered a periodic fluctuation of atmospheric pressure over the tropical Indo-Pacific region, which he called the Southern Oscillation (SO). When rainfall was sparse over northern Australia and Indonesia, pressure in that region was unusually high and wind patterns were changed.
At the same time, pressures were unusually low in the eastern South Pacific. Walker devised a "Southern Oscillation Index" (SOI), based on pressure differences between the two regions (east minus west) and in papers published during the 1920s and 1930s, he presented evidence for worldwide climatic changes associated with the SOI pressure "seesaw."
In the 1950s, the low-phase years of the SOI were found to corresponded with periods of high ocean temperatures along the Peruvian coast and in the early 1960s Norwegian meteorologist Jacob Bjerknes, a professor at the University of California, began to make the connection after he studied the 1957-58 El Nino.
He linked the unusually warm sea-surface temperatures of El Nino with the weak easterlies and heavy rainfallof low SOI conditions.
These are now recognized as part of the same phenomenon -- El Nino plus Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The mechanism of ENSO now better understood as a result of intensive research including data from satellites. When the SO seesaw is in its normal 'high-index' state, pressure is high on the eastern side of the Pacific and low on the western side.
This drives easterly surface winds which extend from the Galapagos Islands to Indonesia. When the easterly winds are blowing at full strength, the cold water cools the air above it, making it too dense to rise high enough to form clouds.
But when the seesaw is in its "low-index" state, the easterly surface winds weaken allowing the ocean to warms. The moist air above also warms and becomes buoyant enough to rise and form clouds that produce heavy rain along the equator.
Related adjustments in the atmosphere cause pressure to fall over the central and eastern Pacific and rise over Indonesia and Australia, resulting in a further weakening and eastward movement of the easterly winds.
But what causes this mechanism to operate? Normally, heat from the sun warms the equator much more than the poles, and the atmosphere and oceans then move this heat toward the poles.
Movement in the atmosphere is powered by heat from evaporating sea water. When warm, moist air rises, it pulls in dry air, creating giant atmospheric loops or "convection cells" that transfer heat away from the equator.
When El Nino is not operating, a huge convection cell forms in the western Pacific, around Indonesia and Australia. But during an El Nino it moves east, changing the weather pattern in the Pacific.
"The huge amounts of heat released by the thunderstorms in convection cells affects the circulation of the global atmosphere, so when those thunderstorms are shifted from their normal position, the global circulation is also changed," explains Jim Kinter, executive director of the Center for Ocean-Land Atmospheric Studies at the Institute of Global Environment and Society in Calverton, in Maryland in the United States.
The key change in El Nino is the altered position of the pool of hot water and the convection cell it creates. In fact, conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite, dubbed La Nina, a period of abnormal cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific, which often, but not always, follows an El Nino.
During an El Nino, waters off Peru can be 9-10 degrees centigrade warmer than normal, with the warm water stretching along the equator. Warm-water fish such as tuna, spread northward as far as the California coast.
There may be droughts in Indonesia and Australia. Pakistan and northwest India are dry, and the normal monsoon rain can be spotty in parts of India. But heavy rains hit central and northern Chile in May and June, causing floods on the northern desert, while parts of central America may have less rain than normal.
The 1982-83 El Nino caught scientists by surprise. Unlike previous El Ninos, it was not preceded by a periodof stronger than normal easterlies on the equator, and it took place later in the year than usual.
North America experienced wildly unusual weather throughout 1983. Australia experienced massive and devastating bushfires.
There was severe drought in the sub-Sahelian countries and the monsoons failed in the Indian Ocean.
Total damages were estimated at eight to $13 billion. All the signs suggest that this year's El Nino will be even worse.
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Copyright Global Information Network Dec 26, 1997
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Changnon, S. A. (1999). Impacts of 1997-98 el nino-generated weather in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 80(9), 1819-1827. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/232635154?accountid=8289
Impacts of 1997-98 El Nino-generated weather in the United States
This paper assesses the major impacts on human lives and the economy of the United States resulting fromweather events attributed to El Nino 1997-98. Southern states and California were plagued by storms, whereas the northern half of the nation experienced much above normal cold season temperatures and below normal precipitation and snowfall. Losses included 189 lives, many due to tornadoes, and the major economic losses were property and crop damages from storms, loss of business by the recreation industry and by snow removal equipment/supplies manufacturers and sales firms, and government relief costs. Benefits included an estimated saving of 850 lives because of the lack of bad winter weather. Areas of major economic benefits (primarily in the nation's northern sections) included major reductions in expenditures (and costs) for natural gas and heating oil, record seasonal sales of retail products and homes, lack of spring flood damages, record construction levels, and savings in highway-based and airline transportation. Further, the nation experienced no losses from major Atlantic hurricanes. The net economic effect was surprisingly positive and less government relief was needed than in prior winters without El Nino influences. The estimated direct losses nationally were about $4 billion and the benefits were approximately $19 billion. The highly accurate long-range predictions issued by the Climate Prediction Center in the summer of 1997 for the winter conditions led to some major benefits. For example, the predictions led California to conduct major mitigation efforts and the results suggest these led to a major reduction in losses. Several utilities in the northern United States used the winter forecasts to alter their strategy for purchasing natural gas, leading to major savings to their customers.
1. Introduction
The societal, economic, and environmental impacts of weather events and climate conditions in the United States normally vary spatially across the nation, and for any given period such as a season or year, the impacts reveal a mix of regional winners and losers. This was certainly true with the impacts resulting from El Nino-generated weather during 1997-98.
The early official predictions of more storms in parts of the nation and heavy precipitation for the South and Far West (Climate Prediction Center August 1997) created concerns about damaging impacts. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) (1997a,b) issued warnings to promote mitigative activities, and with the help of considerable media hype (Glantz 1998), a nationwide perception developed that all "El Nino weather" was going to be damaging. For example, FEMA (1997c) releases and the Financial Times (1997) tied the strong El Nino 1997-98 conditions to the huge U.S. losses from the equally strong El Nino of 1982-83, with 161 killed and losses of $2.2 billion (1983 dollars). Such citations likely resulted from El Nino forecasts that included comparisons of the strong (warm) El Nino of 1997-98 to the magnitude of the 1982-83 event [Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 1997]. California newspapers focused on the 1982-83 losses in California, which included 14 killed and $265 million in damages (San Francisco Chronicle, 1997; Sacramento Bee, 1997). This helped lead to considerable concern and launched major mitigation endeavors in California where storm and rain predictions were ominous. The resulting 1997-98 mitigative activities in California reduced losses and were a beneficial impact of the long-range predictions.
The potential impacts resulting from the official predictions issued by the CPC of a fall-winter-early spring period of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for the northern sections of the United States were largely ignored by the mediathese conditions were not seen as creating negative impacts and were thus of little interest. However, a few scientists did identify some possible benefits such as fewer Atlantic hurricanes and lower energy prices in the Northeast (Hall 1997).
The role of some members of the scientific community in focusing on negative, as opposed to positive impacts from El Nino weather has also been identified as an important part of the "bad outcome" theme surrounding El Nino found in the news media during 1997 (Glantz 1998). For example, a scientific report prepared in October for the insurance industry predicted several bad El Nino outcomes including excessive flooding in the U.S. west, south, east coast, and central plains (Skinner et al.1997). The director of the U.S. Geological Survey, in testimony before Congress in October, predicted more flooding and increased water quality problems because of El Nino but failed to recognize any positive outcomes of additional water in the arid west (Shaefer 1997). A report that reviewed the El Nino 1997-98 winter weather conditions and their impacts reflected the widely held perspective that the winter impacts were bad as had been expected. The report states, "The winter of 1997-1998 was marked by a record-breaking El Nino event and unusual extremes in parts of the country. Overall, the winter was the second warmest and seventh wettest since 1895. Severeweather events included flooding in the southeast, an ice storm in the northeast, flooding in California, and tornadoes in Florida. The winter was dominated by an El Nino-influenced weather pattern, with wetter than normal conditions across much of the southern third of the country and warmer than normal conditions across much of the northern two-thirds of the country" (Ross et al. 1998). The report contained no mention ofthe positive outcomes from the winter weather conditions in the north.
Even with a major, multiyear costly study, it would not be possible to derive precise measures of the economic and environmental impacts of major nationwide weather conditions like those created by the ElNinogenerated weather conditions in 1997-98. A recent study has addressed the difficulties of estimating the losses from natural hazards (NRC 1999). However, by using data in news accounts, business reports, and government reports, coupled with data on insurance losses, useful estimates of the impacts can be and were derived. Based on past studies involving assessments of the economic impacts of major natural hazards, it is likely that the estimates derived for the El Nino 1997-98 impacts are within 30% of the true costs (Guimares et al. 1993; West and Lenze 1994; Changnon 1996).
Assessing the losses and gains caused by El Nino 1997-98 involved decisions as to which weather conditions were caused or enhanced by El Nino's influence on the atmosphere and weather across the United States. Assessment of the comments by many atmospheric scientists on this issue (Changnon 1999a) showed general agreement that the monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation conditions of the fall, winter, and spring of 1997-98 were attributed to El Nino, but there was debate over storms. Most scientists agreed that the lack of Atlantic hurricanes in 1997 and the numerous coastal storms of the 1997-98 cold season were a result of El Nino. However, there was scientific debate over whether El Nino played a role in a major October snowstorm in the high plains (Pielke 1999), and about the numerous tornadoes that occurred in Florida and other southeastern states during the winter-spring (Changnon 1999a). In this analysis of impacts we included the losses of all events when an atmospheric/oceanic scientist speaking in an official capacity as a NOAA staff member attributed the event(s) to El Nino. This led to the inclusion of all the tornadoes ofDecember-April and the two major winter storms of October 1997 and January 1998. If these events were excluded, El Nino's damage total would be considerably less, reducing the number of deaths by 100 and losses by $1 billion.
2. Losses
An extensive content analysis of 2000 news stories and television programs about El Nino (Wilkins 1999) revealed that in the event's early months (JuneSeptember 1997) the El Nino information presented focused on the climate and oceanic forecasts and their scientific uncertainties. However, as El Nino grew to record proportions, FEMA and some scientists translated the official forecasts into warnings of damaging weatherahead, and the press picked up on this new theme that "El Nino 1997-98 would bring death and destruction" similar to that caused by the massive 1982-83 El Nino. When three damaging Pacific hurricanes occurred just west of Mexico in September early October, and then a damaging winter storm hit the high plains in October, the press considered the dire predictions verified. Thereafter, the press blamed all weather events on El Nino, and the concept that generally benign weather conditions would exist in the northern United States and be beneficial disappeared from the media stories (Wilkins 1999).
Indeed, El Nino-influenced atmospheric conditions created a considerable amount of damaging weather. In March, a leading NOAA scientist stated that El Nino 1997-98 was "the most damaging ever" (Friday 1998). The series of weather disasters from October 1997 to May 1998 were attributed to the record largest El Nino of1997-98 Dole 1998), and these weather disasters were noteworthy for their variety and distribution across the nation.
As predicted when El Nino rapidly developed during April-August 1997, California was assaulted by coastal storms and heavy rains causing floods, numerous landslides, and damages to the state's valuable agriculture with losses totaling $1.1 billion statewide (Andrews 1998, personal communication). Florida, Texas, and several other southern states were struck by several severe rainstorms and numerous tornadoes, events not common in winter. Tornadoes led to more than 100 deaths, and El Nino-related property and agricultural losses in Florida ultimately reached $500 million. A record early damaging snowstorm swept across the high plains and upper Midwest in October, and then an extremely severe ice storm struck the Northeast in January, creating losses in excess of $400 million and 28 deaths (Ross et al.1998). The intensity of both storms was attributed to El Nino (Wolter 1997; Ross et al. 1998).
By the end of May 1998 the national death toll caused by weather conditions related to El Nino was 189. The total included 42 deaths from February tornadoes in Florida, 28 deaths from the January ice storm, 17 in California due to various events during the winter, 2 from a Minnesota tornado, 3 drowned while snowmobiling on thin ice in northern Michigan, 24 dead from an intense February snow and rainstorm across 14 eastern states, 65 dead due to tornadoes during March-April in various southeastern states, and 8 drowned in Texas from a December flood-producing rainstorm. President Clinton visited damaged areas of Florida and California in late February and stated, "The people of California and now Florida are giving the people of the U.S. some painful examples of the excesses of this El Nino which is apparently the strongest ever in this century" (1998).
The property insurance industry identified 15 catastrophes, events each causing greater than $25 million in insured losses, during the 8-month period ending by May 1998 (when El Nino's influence on U.S. weatherconditions had largely disappeared). The total insured losses by these 15 catastrophes was $1.7 billion (Property Claim Service 1998) and the weather with each had been attributed to El Nino (Changnon 1999b). As shown in Fig. 1, states where insured losses came from three or more catastrophes included Alabama, California, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and North Carolina, revealing that the long-range forecasts calling for more storms on the West Coast and in the deep South were correct. Florida experienced losses in 5of the 15 catastrophes and 3 of these each caused more than $100 million to losses nationally. The single greatest insured storm loss was $305 million caused by heavy rains (flooding), hail, and tornadoes in a storm system on 15-17 April that swept across Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Illinois (and killed 11). The two major winter storms, one in October and one in January, account for the catastrophe counts found in the states comprising the central high plains, upper Midwest, and New England (Fig. 1).
A severe drought developed in Hawaii as a result of El Nino's influences on the region's weather, depleting water supplies and damaging certain crops. The much above normal fall and winter precipitation in California and Florida devastated many vegetable crops. National prices for fresh produce rose 7.9% in January, retreated in February, and then rose 5% in March. The floods and storms in California were cited as the main reason for a raise in the price of food of 0.4% in February (Labor Department 1998). Food processors also suffered from a lack of produce and complained about the poor quality of the fresh produce coming from California and Arizona (Detroit News 1998). Prices for strawberries doubled, those for cauliflower tripled, and the USDA reassured the public indicating the high prices would retreat to normal levels by June (Peterlin 1998).
The tourist industry dependent on nice winter weather in Florida and the California coastal areas was hurt by a 30% drop in tourists during the winter and early spring, although the skiing industry in California had much above average business (USA Today 1998). Many ski resorts in the Midwest and Northeast were hurt by the lack of snow, increasing costs to make artificial snow and with marginal conditions that kept many skiers away. Michigan reported that income at the state's ski resorts was decreased by 50% (Pearce and Smith 1998). Among the businesses most negatively impacted by El Nino-generated weather were (a) providers ofnatural gas and heating oil (because temperatures were so mild in the northern United States), (b) farmers growing vegetables and fruits in California and Florida and cotton in Arizona where it was too wet, (c) manufacturers of snowmobiles and snow removal equipment including shovels (because of the low snowfall in the northern United States), and (d) producers of salt, victims of low sales due to very little snow and few winter storms (USA Today 1998). Retailers in California and Florida reported 3%-5% decreases in sales as a result of cool and wet weather (Wall Street Journal 1998a), and retailers in northern states who had developed large stocks of winter clothing suffered some from lack of sales.
Impacts of El Nino's weather in other regions of the world also produced negative impacts in the United States. For example, the drought in Panama led to a lowering of the canal and this reduced shipping loads and increased costs for shipping for five months. Davis (1997) assessed many of these impacts showing how the drought in Central America hurt the quantity and quality of vegetables exported to the United States and caused their prices to raise by 10%. Further, commodity traders dealing with Central American agricultural products did an extensive business. The El Ninorelated drought in Southeast Asia cut production of coffee and palm oil, raising prices in the United States (Davis 1997).
Even after the storm activity ended, more El Ninorelated damages occurred. Widespread fires broke out in Florida during June, fueled by a heavy growth of underbrush caused by the unusually heavy El Ninocaused winter rains. In Florida and Texas, two states predicted to have above normal rainfall in the spring due to El Nino conditions, spring rainfall was well below normal and drought conditions developed, helping to create the Florida fires in June and to greatly hurt the crops in both states (NOAA 1998).
Federal relief payments for El Nino-caused storm losses reached $289 million by the end of March, but this was lower than relief payments in the prior two winters that were not El Nino related (Bunting 1998). There were 18 presidentially declared disasters made from the fall of 1997 through April 1998, and all were partly attributed to El Nino's influence on the atmosphere (Leetma 1998). El Nino events have become stronger and more frequent since 1980, certainly one reason for the increased losses from weather-related natural disasters over the past 15 years (Changnon et al. 1997).
In summary, the national economic losses that could be estimated include the following: property losses = $2.8 billion [insured losses were $1.7 billion, and uninsured losses were estimated as $1.1 billion based on the fact that insured storm losses normally represent 65% of all structural losses from storms (NRC 1999; Pielke 1995)];
federal government relief = $400 million;
state assistance costs = $125 million;
agricultural losses = $650 to $700 million;
lost sales in snow-removal equipment = $60$80 million; and
losses in the tourist industry = $180 to $200 million.
3. Benefits
Weather conditions across the United States for any given month, season, or year produce losers and winners. The mild, almost snow-free winter in the northern United States produced by El Nino's influence on the atmospheric circulation over North America resulted in several major beneficial gains and some losses. Many fewer lives were lost due to bad winter conditions (bad roads, low temperatures, etc.) than normally occur. Estimates from various parts of the northern United States indicated a national drop from an average of 850 winter deaths to less than 100 lives lost to winter conditions during 1997-98 (Pearce and Smith 1998). The mild, near record high winter temperatures of 1997-98 meant few exceptionally cold temperatures and this greatly reduced the lives lost to extreme low temperatures. Lives lost to extreme cold nationally totaled 13 (Parrish 1999, personal communication) compared to the annual average of 770 (Adams 1997), a reduction amounting to 757 lives. Winter snow and ice storms, fewer than normal, led to 33 deaths nationally (NationalWeather Service 1997-98) which is 14 less than average (Kocin 1997). Vehicular injuries and deaths due to winter season accidents were also decreased (Pearce and Smith 1998), and the December 1997-March 1998 total nationally was 64 deaths (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 1999). This is 57 fewer deaths than the average based on the prior two winters (National Safety Council 1999). In sum, these national reductions sum to 828 fewer deaths than in an average U.S. winter.
El Nino's influence on the atmosphere led to the elimination of major Atlantic hurricanes during 1997 (CPC 1997; Gray 1997), and annual hurricane damages in the United States have been averaging $5 billion per year in the 1990s (Pielke and Landsea 1998). This lack of hurricanes meant an enormous savings to home and business owners, the government, and to insurers. It further meant no lives lost to hurricanes, which have produced an average of 20 deaths per year since 1986. Thus, one can estimate a total savings of 850 lives as a result of El Nino.
The abnormal warmth led to major reductions in heating costs with less use of natural gas and heating oil. Nationally, the energy savings were 10% (Ross et al. 1998) and this translates to a savings of $6.7 billion. One could postulate that this consumer gain was also a loss to the natural gas, fuel oil, and electric power industries. One could further argue that the damages to houses and businesses counted as losses were also gains to the construction industry involved in the repair and rebuilding of damaged structures. What has been counted as losses and gains herein are the "direct" losses and gains, involving those that initially bear the loss or experience the gain. The secondary, often delayed, financial effects resulting from either direct gains or losses are not accounted for herein because there is great difficulty in acquiring meaningful estimates and these effects represent a major dilemma in assessing all the impacts of natural disasters (NRC 1999).
Utilities using the predictions also bought natural gas and heating oil at much lower prices during the winter, rather than sign costlier early-season contracts, and this also further reduced heating costs to consumers. The major reduction in use of natural gas and heating oil was sufficiently sizable to have an effect on global oil prices, and El Nino's influence that brought abnormally warm winters to North America and Europe was cited as one of the three factors that led to a major reduction in gasoline prices that began in March 1998 (Stamper 1998).
Not only were many fewer persons killed because of the mild, storm-free winter weather, but many people changed their normal winter behavioral patterns. Thousands went out of doors more, millions went shopping, many altered their types of recreation, and most everyone enjoyed better health than in normal winters. There were notably fewer airline and highway transportation delays normally due to inclement weather, bringing less stress and increased profits, estimated at 3%-8%, to the airlines and trucking industry (Changnon 1999b).
The lack of winter snowfall and freezing rain led to major reductions in the use of salt on highways and streets saving money and minimizing environmental impacts. This also reduced normal overtime payments to street crews for snow removal, and collectively these actions brought major savings to state and local governments. For example, the savings reported in the Chicago metropolitan area totaled $21 million (Fonda 1998).
The generally good weather in the Midwest and Northeast, with little precipitation and temperatures averaging 7 deg C above normal, also had a major influence on construction, retail shopping, and home sales. Many retail chains reported record high sales for January-March, and record high sales of homes occurred during December-March (National Association of Realtors 1998). The Department of Commerce reported (March 1998) that construction of new homes in February was up 6% from January, the highest monthly increase since November 1987, and that income and employment in the construction industry from December through February had increased 25%, representing an increase of $350 million above the income in normal recent winters. Most major retailers reported healthy gains as their sales, and stock prices, rose as a result of the warm winter weather. Sales gains above 1997 values were 4.9% in January (Wall Street Journal 1998b), 5.7% in February (Wall Street Journal 1998c), and 3.4% in March (Wall Street Journal 1998d). The record seasonal sales of goods and homes brought sizable added incomes to retailers, relators, and homeowners, and summation of the various reported increases yielded a national total estimated at $5.6 billion. Of course, this also occurred during a period when the nation's economy was quite robust, likely enabling added purchases.
The early fears about bad weather brought economic predictions of instability in the commodity markets (Detroit News 1997). As a result, many brokers did a brisk business during the fall and winter of 1997 (Fig. 2). Economists reported that the lack of Atlantic hurricanes and attendant losses were a major boon to insurers, affecting investors who increased their purchases of stocks (Stread and Thomason 1998). The lack of losses from hurricanes and those normally due to spring snowmelt floods benefitted the federal government, which normally faces large relief costs related to hurricane and flood damages (NRC 1999). Spring snowmelt floods in the nation's northern states normally produce $1.9 billion in losses (Changnon 1999b).
California, as a result of severe floods earlier in 1997, was already in the process of instigating major mitigative activities when the El Nino predictions of a bad 1997-98 cold season were issued. The state spent an additional $7.5 million to aid in preparedness and to alert the public (Andrews 1998), and several communities spent their funds on local projects. No cost figures exist to measure the benefits of the mitigative activities done in California, but the state suffered less loss in the 1997-98 winter, a total of $1.1 billion, than in the comparably severe 1982-83 El Nino (approximately $2 billion in losses adjusted to 1998 dollars). California roofing companies and home repair companies had major increases in business beginning in September 1997 and reported $125 million in added income as a result of El Nino-related mitigation activities (Labor Department 1998). There also should have been benefits in western water systems since the director of the U.S. Geological Survey reported to Congress in October 1997 that government water managers in the Survey and Bureau of Reclamation had been instructed to plan their management strategies using theEl Nino-based long-range forecasts calling for heavy precipitation (Shaefer 1997). The Secretary of Commerce pointed to the correctness of NOAA's El Nino predictions, reflecting on the numerous national benefits resulting from their use (Daley 1997). NOAA Administrator Baker (1997), in presenting congressional testimony, claimed the value of the El Nino predictions to U.S. agriculture was $275 million.
The net effect on the nation's economy from these varied benefits was detectable. For example, the Federal Reserve Board announced in February 1998 that the warm January caused a 4% drop in production at the nation's electric and gas utilities, ending a run of months with production increases that economists had expected to be +0.3% in January (Federal Reserve Board 1998). El Nino's net influence and the Asian financial crisis combined in February to eliminate inflation in the prices paid by wholesalers, as food processors and manufacturers charged wholesalers 0.1% less than in January for finished goods (Labor Department 1998). Inflation was held to zero during JanuaryMarch for the first time in 10 years, and the Consumer Price Index went unchanged due to the falling energy prices (Department of Commerce 1998).
Other outcomes partially attributed to El Ninocreated conditions are difficult to quantify. For example, gasoline prices in the United States fell to record lows in early March 1998, and oil experts indicated that one part of the cause was the warmer-thanusual winter in the United States that greatly reduced demand for oil, and also partly the result of the Asian financial crisis and the bickering over sales quotas by the world's oil producers (USA Today 1998). This gas price reduction, averaging $0.25 per gallon below preEl Nino costs continued through 1998, represented an enormous saving to drivers. With 260 million autos and trucks operating and using an estimated 10 gallons of gasoline per week, the savings for March-May 1998 amounted to $7.5 billion, but how much of this can be attributed to an El Nino-caused warm winter? Even if only a small amount of this saving was attributable to El Nino, then very large benefits accrued across the nation with gasoline prices remaining low throughout 1998. The head of the Energy Information Administration stated that the decrease in gasoline prices was largely due to the winter's warmth (Stampler 1998), which suggests that some of the consumer benefits from these savings could be counted but they were not included in the list below.
The national economic gains due to El Nino weather that could be estimated are as follows:
reduced heating costs = $6.7 billion;
increased sales of merchandise, homes, and other goods = $5.6 billion;
reductions in costs of street/highway removal of ice and snow = $350-$400 million;
reductions in normal losses due to absence of snowmelt floods and no Atlantic hurricanes = $6.9 billion;
income from increased construction and related employment = $450-$500 million; and
reduced operating costs to airlines and trucking industry = $160-$175 million.
4. Summary
Various sources of data were employed to derive estimates of many of the direct financial losses as welleffects on human lives from weather conditions attributed to El Nino 1997-98. However, other nonfinancial impacts as well as delayed economic effects were not well measured nor estimated at this time. For example, the environmental impacts resulting from El Nino 1997-98 are not well defined but we know that some were negative and others positive. The enhanced precipitation in the arid west certainly improved water supplies. The western rains filled the reservoirs and also reduced energy costs since hydroelectric plants could operate at full capacity. Many envisioned that the mild winter would lead to increased insect pests in 1998, but little evidence that this occurred could be found.
The many impacts resulting from use of the El Nino-based predictions for fall, winter, and early springweather also represent another group of positive but largely unmeasured outcomes. One example is the benefits derived from the widespread mitigation activities in California. The difference in the California losses between similar El Ninos was sizable; $2 billion in 1982-83 (adjusted to 1998 dollars) versus $1.1 billion in 1997-98, suggesting the extensive mitigation activities were extremely beneficial. Utilities that used the forecasts and waited to purchase their natural gas supplies on the spot market during the winter, as prices rapidly fell, also reaped sizable benefits for their customers. One Iowa-based utility saved its customers $39 million from use of the predictions (Waetke 1998), and two utilities in Michigan reported savings of $48 million and $147 million during March 1998 (Bishop 1998). Another impact resulting from the unusual weather of 1997-98 related to the evolving weather derivatives business that reportedly increased its sales (Zeng 1999). Most impacts identified and estimated fell in the category of direct losses and benefits and do not include many of the secondary, often delayed effects occurring after El Nino ended. One example of the delayed effects is the Florida fires in June 1998 that damaged orange groves. This damage ultimately led to a 20% increase in orange juice prices that began in October 1998 (Cornell 1998). Another example of delayed impacts relates to the low use of natural gas in the northern states during the warm winter of 1997-98. This led utilities to buy natural gas at low prices and to fill their gas storage fields, resulting in abundant supplies for the 1998-99 winter. As a result, natural gas prices in 1998-99 became 20%-30% lower than in normal winters (Wall Street Journal 1998a). Some events claimed as El Ninorelated were not. For example, the summer 1998 drought in Texas, which developed during the very dry spring in 1998, was an outcome in direct contrast to theEl Nino-faced forecasts for wet conditions in Texas, and was not attributed to El Nino-related conditions.
A summary of the national impacts, both losses and benefits, appears in Table 1. These reveal that the benefits realized greatly outweighed the losses, both in terms of the lives lost and in damages. Michaels (1998) made an early estimate that accounted for national benefits of $15 billion versus losses of $2 billion. One must realize that the dollar values in Table 1 are based on estimates that may be in error by up to 30%; thus, the losses could range from $3 billion to $6 billion and the benefits from $14 billion up to $25 billion.
The sizable and unexpected benefits from El Nino conditions were noted by the press. One news article stated, "Effects of El Nino are mostly a positive outcome" (Reuters 1998). This net positive outcome led another assessor of the impacts to contrast and question this outcome against the climatologists' predictions in 1997, which called for major losses (Cincinnati Enquirer 1998). This assessment concluded that this prediction of"bad impacts" raised major doubts about the scientists' predictions of negative outcomes apt to result from global warming.
One lesson for atmospheric scientists and government agencies acting on climate forecasts is the need to focus on both the good and bad impacts of predicted weather conditions. The media tends to focus only on the negative outcomes. Another lesson revealed in the study was that when weather conditions or climate events become "national news," news and science writers tend to approach "local" experts for interpretationsof the events and conditions. This situation often results in widely different interpretations such as what tornadoes to attribute to El Nino or whether global warming has begun.
An important third lesson is that all weather conditions produce winners and losers, and in general, less is known about the winners than about the losers. Although hard to realize, major storms like hurricanes and tornadoes result in certain losses which, in turn, become gains in the form of replaced aged property and infrastructures, discovery that building codes or other laws have not been followed, and rebuilding for the construction industry. The fourth lesson shown from analysis of El Nino's impacts is that predicting future impacts on lives and the economy due to expected weather is likely as difficult as making accurate long-rangeweather predictions.
Acknowledgments. This research was supported by a subcontract with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, based on funding from the Climate Prediction Center of NOAA. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or UCAR.
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Taylor, R. (1997). Beware the ripples of El Nino. Brandweek, 38(47), 16-17. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/218053663?accountid=8289
Beware the ripples of El Nino
El Nino, defined as a warm water pattern originating in the South Pacific Ocean, has its greatest influence in December, the time when many celebrate the birth of another little one whose birthday is so influential to retail merchandising patterns. We can also expect to see El Nino's effect on retail and commerce across various industries. No matter how you slice it, El Nino will affect virtually all of us in one way or another in the next 5 months.
El Nino-Spanish for "the little one" and defined as a warm water pattern originating in the South Pacific Ocean-has its greatest influence in December, the time when many celebrate the birthof another little one whose birthday is so influential to retail merchandising patterns. We can also expect to see El Nino's effect on retail and commerce across various industries.
"The level of attention El Nino is getting relative to its actual effect is much higher than it will probably turn out," said Marco Pasqualina, vp-consumer package goods at Strategic Weather Services, whose clients include retailers Wal-Mart, Target and Kmart. "There's a subtle difference between the risk and opportunity."
This year's El Nino is the warmest of this century, according to experts. What this means is Pacific Ocean temperatures are 7 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit higher. That may not sound like much, but the difference between 60-degree and 70-degree bath water when it hits sensitive body parts works out to about a three-octave shriek for most folks.
No matter how you slice it, El Nino will affect virtually all of us in one way or another in the next five months.
Naturally, it is once again being predicted to impact the West Coast. The El Ninoinduced tropical storms expected to batter the California coastal areas this winter could cause intensive flooding in the lowlands and mudslides in the hillsides. What flora blooms and flourishes in the rains of winter withers and dies during the searing heat of California's summers, providing abundant fuel for local wacked-out arsonists. Look for epic forest fires in the hills during peak fire months of August-September.
Not only can El Nino turn beachfront property into man-made reefs, it can also take the snow out of the mountains and dump it as rain where the sun almost always shines. Those planning on Aspen vacations better call ahead. "In the state of Colorado there are some more mixed opinions on what [El Nino's] going to do," said Barbara Jennings of Colorado Ski Country USA. "It usually doesn't mean a banner year for the Northern or Central mountains, and here in Colorado people are a little more aware of that." Conversely, those planning on wintering in the arid desert would be advised to bring an umbrella (or the Twist Rain Hat: See "Downloads").
El Nino has a special place in its heart for the Midwest. "There are variations in the pattern of each El Nino; average all of them and there's a tendency to warmer weather in the Midwest," said Strategic Weather vp Bill Weaving. Not good for those whose livelihood depends on selling soup, cocoa, winter clothing, vacation travel, video rentals, winter recreation equipment, distilled spirits, or anything else that consumers tend to use heavily when the weather gets cold and snowy.
This fall, for example, the East and Midwest enjoyed summer-like temperatures throughout October. Warmweather put a huge dent in sales of fall apparel like boots, coats and sweaters. "When it's 80, who wants to go into a store and try on a turtleneck?" said Kurt Barnard, president of Barnard's Retail Trend Report.
"El Nino hasn't hit us as bad as we thought, yet," said Jane Browe, marketing director of produce processing at Ready Pac/Club Chef. "But we're still using it as an excuse for anything and everything that goes wrong."
AuthorAffiliation
Rod Taylor is president of The Optimum Group, Cincinnati.
Copyright ASM Communications Dec 15, 1997
