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excel_assgn.xlsxAssumption Testing
| Qualitative Risk Analysis of Constructing a Dam in California | ||
| Assumption | Stability (1-10) | Consequences if False 1-10 |
| There will be resettlement of people | 8 | 2 |
| The dam will help provide large scale HEP | 5 | 8 |
| The project will have a short payback period | 3 | 5 |
| Irrigation will be a direct benefit | 3 | 7 |
| The buiging of the dam will not have substancial adverse impacts on the physical environment | 2 | 4 |
| The presence of the dam will not disrupt the lives and lifestyles of people living in the reservoir area | 1 | 3 |
Scale for probability & Inpact
| Scale for Impact | ||
| Rating | Intepretation | |
| 10 | Substantial Impact not reccomended | |
| 9 | Very High | |
| 8 | highly moderate | |
| 7 | moderately high | |
| 6 | highly moderate | |
| 5 | moderate | |
| 4 | very moderate | |
| 3 | Low | |
| 2 | Very low | |
| 1 | No real impact | |
Data Quality Assessment
| Risk | Extend of Understanding the Risk | Amount of Data Available About the Risk | Reliability of Data | ||
| Cause | Risk | Effect | |||
| Delay in federal reserve | Limited initial cash outlay | project delays by six months | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| Incomplete contract payment | Contractors leave job midway | further delay of project | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Dam construction | Internal displacement of locals | political unrest and vilification | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| Dam construction | Lost of scenic beauty | loss of tourist revenue | 9 | 6 | 2 |
Column chart of the extent of understanding risk, data available and reliability of data
Extent of understanding data
Limited initial cash outlay Contractors leave job midway Internal displacement of locals Lost of scenic beauty 8 5 4 9 Amount of available data
Limited initial cash outlay Contractors leave job midway Internal displacement of locals Lost of scenic beauty 6 3 9 6 Reliability of data
Limited initial cash outlay Contractors leave job midway Internal displacement of locals Lost of scenic beauty 3 4 7 2
Qualitative Risk Analysis Form
| Qualitative Risk Analysis Form | ||||||||
| Risk Score | ||||||||
| No | Threats and Opportunities | Probability | Impact | Px1 | Risk Ranking Within Project | Calculation of Project Risk Score | ||
| 1 | It takes a long time to recover the initial cash outlay | 4 | 9 | 36 | Non-top risk | 36 | ||
| 2 | Underbudget by 15% | 3 | 6 | 18 | Non-top risk | |||
| 3 | minor loss of scenic beauty | 8 | 7 | 56 | 7 | 56 | ||
| 4 | little loss of pecuniary bnefits | 7 | 8 | 56 | 6 | 56 | ||
| Total Risk score | 166 |
Column chart of threats Vs probability and impact
Probability
It takes a long time to recover the initial cash outlay Underbudget by 15% minor loss of scenic beauty little loss of pecuniary bnefits 4 3 8 7 Impact
It takes a long time to recover the initial cash outlay Underbudget by 15% minor loss of scenic beauty little loss of pecuniary bnefits 9 6 7 8
Non- top Risk Form
| Risk | Risk Ranking | Risk Score | ||||||||
| Cause | Risk | Effect | Activity | Probability | Impact | Px1 | Ranking | Score | ||
| Delay in federal reserve | It takes a long time to recover the initial cash outlay | project delays by six months | Dam construction | 4 | 9 | 36 | 4 | 36 | ||
| Incomplete contract payment | Underbudget by 15% | further delay of project | Dam construction | 3 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 18 | ||
Risk Ranks
| T | |||
| Project Risk Ranks | |||
| Project | Risk Score For Project | Risk Ranking compared to other projects | |
| Limited initial cash outlay | 66.2 | 1 | |
| Contractors abandon job early | 45.7 | 2 | |
| internal displacement | 54.9 | 3 | |
| loss of scenic beauty | 33.9 | 4 |
Bar Chart for the Risk Score For Project
Risk Score For Project
Limited initial cash outlay Contractors abandon job early internal displacement loss of scenic beauty 66. 2 45.7 54.9 33.9
