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BUSINESS RESEARCH PROJECT PART 3 2

BUSINESS RESEARCH PROJECT PART 3 21

Running head: BUSINESS RESEARCH PROJECT PART 3 1

Part 1: Formulation of the Research Problem

Globally, consumers drink milk regularly because of its many inherent nutritional benefits mainly calcium and Vitamin D which promotes healthy and strong muscles, bones, and teeth in addition to soft skin, and hair (California Milk Processor Board, 2015). Over the years, U.S. milk producers such as Natural Farms saw a decline in the liquid dairy sales of white milk consumption at 6.5% between 2011 and 2015. On the other hand, chocolate flavored milk is expected to increase at a rate of 9.5% in 2015 as result of consumer’s changing taste and lifestyle (Tetra Pak, 2013). The team conducts the study of the new product line which is the low-fat, chocolate-flavored milk to increase the average annual milk consumption of Natural Farms’ milk. In this study, numerical independent variables (IV) identifies time before, and after introduction of the product, while dependent variable (DV) assess the annual product volume consumption. Other variables in the study includes confounding variable (CFV) recognizing disease, and moderating variables (MV) such as household, demographics, and lifestyle.

Based on the available statistical data, American consumption of milk products declined steadily over the course of 19 years – from 1986 to 2005. This report raised concerns on the individual’s inability to attain the right amount of daily dairy required dietary intake. Meanwhile, the same data reports that the consumption of low-fat chocolate flavored milk rose steadily on the course of the study. Using this data, Natural Farms looked at the opportunity to increase sales upon production of chocolate flavored milk focusing on low-fat content as part of the campaign in fostering the consumer’s healthy nutritional dairy intake. Low-fat chocolate milk fulfills the recommended dairy serving for all ages and stages of development. With these data, we can hypothesize it is beneficial for Natural Farms to produce low-fat chocolate flavored milk for the general public to increase revenue and revitalize interest in milk consumption.

Part 2: Literature Review

Flora’s Review

Is Generational Change Contributing to the Decline in Fluid Milk Consumption?

Associations between flavored milk consumption and changes in weight and body composition over time: differences among normal and overweight children.

Flavored Milk: Frequently Asked Questions and Answers

Angeleen Libongco

Chocolate Milk Consequences: A Pilot Study Evaluating the Consequences of Banning Chocolate Milk in School Cafeterias

Angeleen reviewed the first article, Chocolate Milk Consequences: A Pilot Study Evaluating the Consequences of Banning Chocolate Milk in School Cafeterias. The authors of this study conducted an experiment to acquire data from school cafeterias resulting from the effect of removing chocolate milk in eleven (11) Oregon elementary schools. They analyzed the effects of this move relative to the student’s total milk consumption, selection, and participation in the National School Lunch Program (NSLP). Timeline of data collection and measurement covered school year (SY) 2011-2012 with a before and after study on the chocolate milk removal and implementation. School districts believed flavored milk that is high in calories, sugar, and fat content contributed to child obesity. On this study, the authors substituted the word chocolate milk to refer to the general flavored milk selection because it was the most popular option among subjects garnering 61.6% preference on the overall 68.3% flavored milk available in the schools. The results of the study revealed that the total daily milk sales declined at 9.9% indicating a major decrease on milk consumption even when white milk increased into 161.2 cartons per day as a choice of beverage however, using milk waste data, the students threw away 29.4% units of these. They also found out that the participation to the school lunch program, NSLP, declined but suggests a more thorough follow-up study to collect more information from NSLP participants and non-participants. Chocolate milk removal in the school cafeterias helped to eradicate the immediate benefit of lesser fat and sugar consumption in the schoolchildren but further research needs to explore the unexpected consequences. The authors suggest conducting a cost and benefit analysis of banning chocolate milk and recommends promoting innovative ways enabling schoolchildren to drink more white milk (Hanks, Just, & Wansink, 2014).

Elementary and Middle School Children's Acceptance of Lower Calorie Flavored Milk as Measured by Milk Shipment and Participation in the National School Lunch Program

The second article reviewed is Elementary and Middle School Children's Acceptance of Lower Calorie Flavored Milk as Measured by Milk Shipment and Participation in the National School Lunch Program. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the acceptance of reformulated lower calorie milk in the 17 public school, and parochial school districts across the country covering a sample of 117 elementary and middle schools during SY 2008-2009, and 2009-2010. The hypothesis states the shipment, and usage of reformulated lower calorie flavored milk from the sampled schools will not differ from the previous year’s shipment, and usage of the standard higher calorie flavored milk. It further states that the NSLP participation rates remains constant even with the change in the school milk offerings. The samples gathered covered three time phases; T1 indicates four to six (4-6) months before the introduction of reformulated flavored milk, T2 indicates two (2) month period during the reformulated milk availability, and T3 indicates four to six (4-6) months after the introduction of reformulated flavored milk. The authors collected data from milk shipment records, and NSLP participation records to measure the change and the results indicated no significant change with the shift to the reformulated flavored milk. For schools serving low fat, reduced-sugar flavored milk, the average daily shipment of units of milk per student during T1 is 0.60 units, T2 is 0.61 units, and T3 is 0.64 units. Meanwhile, the NSLP participation rate is 70.7% during T1, 65.2% during T2, and 69.2% during T3. The results convey that milk shipments remained almost the same and even increased after reformulated milk introduction while the NSLP participation rate dropped a bit during introduction of the reformulated milk but it eventually increased after the move (Yon & Johnson, 2014).

The consumption of flavored milk among a children population, The influence of beliefs and the association of brand with emotions

Third article reviewed is The consumption of flavored milk among a children population, The influence of beliefs and the association of brand with emotions, wherein the purpose of the experiment is to find out if the sample of 507 schoolchildren in Belgium, ages eight to thirteen (8-13), prefer to choose taste over the health benefits of plain, and flavored milk. The formulated hypothesis states that children will consume more flavored milk if their brand awareness is higher. The authors chose the schoolchildren on this age group because they already acquired the nutritional aspects of nutrition in food, and they can work independently to answer the questionnaire. Designed in two parts, the first part of the test surveyed the following topics covering the student’s socio-demographic status, consumption, general importance of taste, and health aspects, and brand awareness. The second phase of the questionnaire comprised of socio-demographic factors, health aspects, importance of parents, and total consumption of milk and flavored milk. The results revealed that children prefer cow’s milk garnering 86.2% points, soymilk at 12.2%, and rice milk at 1.4%. On the flavored milk variant, 50% of most schoolchildren chose chocolate milk, plain milk and fruit flavor at 20%, and 8.2% chose flavored milk with vanilla taste. Overall, taste is more important in consumption than the health aspects indicating that the flavored milk preference over the taste of plain milk is at z=-6.778, p<0.001 however, children’s opinion indicated that plain milk is more healthy at z=-14.492, p<0.001. The respondents associated positive emotions the market leader in chocolate cow’s milk brand, and favors it rather than the healthier brands of soya, or rice milk. Furthermore, this study implies that the children’s chocolate milk preference is similar in other parts of the globe illustrating that the vending machines in the US sell more flavored milk than plain milk. Overall, the study demonstrates that children are aware of the health and nutritional value when choosing food but sensory appeal takes precedence (De Pelsmaker, Schouteten, & Gellynck, 2013).

Misato Walters

Low-fat Milk Consumption among Children and Adolescents in The United States,

2007-2008

Misato reviewed the first article, Low-fat Milk Consumption among Children and Adolescents in The United States, 2007-2008. Milk and milk products are recommended in Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2010 (Kitt, Carroll, & Ogden, 2011). Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007-2008, as summarized by Kitt, Carroll, and Ogden indicate the following:

(a) Girls consumed less daily milk consumption than boys.

(b) Approximately 20% of children and adolescences consumed Low-fat milk.

(c) Two-percent milk was usually consumed by 45.4% of children and adolescents.

(d) Adolescents aged 12-19 years of age reported greater consumption of low-fat milk than younger children aged 2-5 years.

(e) Non-Hispanic white children and adolescents reported greater preference for low-fat milk than non-Hispanic black children and adolescents.

(f) Children and adolescents in higher income categories reported low-fat milk as their usual milk type more frequently then children and adolescents in lower-income categories.

Finally, 77.7% of boys and 67.4% of girls among adolescents aged 12-19 years reported daily consumption of milk. Fewer than 10% of children and adolescents never consumed milk.

Innovate and Communicate to Revitalize Milk

The second article reviewed is Innovate and Communicate to Revitalize Milk. The article predicted that flavored milk consumption would grow at more than double the rate of white milk globally between 2012 and 2015 (Gatta, 2015). Tetra Pak released its Dairy Index 2015 identifying four drivers fueling the rise in flavored milk consumption as follows (Gatta, 2015):

(a) Desire for nutritious and healthy food, particularly in developing countries.

(b) Urbanization, rising prosperity, and modern life generating a need for ready-to-drink flavored milk in convenient portion packs.

(c) Eagerness on the part of consumers to try new food and drinks.

(d) Flavored milk allows for indulgent drinking as a way of escaping the daily grind during times of economic uncertainty.

Finally, according to the Dairy Index 2015, we can expect white milk to decline by 6.5% between 2011 and 2015, while we can expect flavored milk to increase to 9.5% by 2015. Nutritional Consequences of Flavored-Milk Consumption by School-Aged Children and Adolescents in The United States

Third article reviewed is The Nutritional Consequences of Flavored-Milk Consumption by School-Aged Children and Adolescents in The United States. A study by Johnson, Frary, and Wang (2002), funded by the National Dairy Council, determined that flavored-milk intake was positively associated with energy-adjusted calcium, phosphorous, and percent energy from saturated fat intakes, while negatively associated with energy-adjusted vitamin C and folate intakes in children aged 5 to 11 years. In addition, Johnson et al found that children who consumed flavored milk had higher calcium intakes but similar percent energy from total fat and added sugars intake compared with children who did not consume flavored milk.

The research sample was selected from all children aged 5 to 17 years participating in the 1994-96 and 1998 USDA Continuing Survey of Food Intakes of Individuals (CSFII). The total sample size was 3,888 (n=2,763 school-aged children and n=1,125 adolescents) distributed approximately evenly between boys and girls (51.6% boys; 49.4% girls). The surveys used a multistage, area probability sample designed to reflect the racial, geographic, and socio-demographic diversity of the US population. This allowed for the generalization of the study results to all children in the United States aged 5 to 17 years. The dietary intake data collected were as two in-person, 24-hour multiple-pass recalls. This demonstrated that the dietary intake method provided valid measures of dietary intake for groups of children (Johnson, Driscoll, & Goran, 1996). The independent variable was 2-day mean flavored-milk intake. The dependent variables in the study were 2-day mean intakes of total milk, soft drinks, sugar-sweetened fruit drinks and Ades (<10% fruit juice), and fruit juices.

Flavored-milk intake in the CSFII was significantly ( P<.05) and positively associated with total milk intake in both age groups. On average, those children who consumed more than 1 cup of flavored milk per day had a total milk intake that was 192 grams higher for children 5 to 11 years of age and 277 grams higher for adolescents 12 to 17 years of age than the children in the respective age groups who were non- consumers of flavored milk. In particular, children who consumed flavored milk had higher total milk intake and lower soft drink and fruit drink intake but similar fruit juice intake compared with children who were non-consumers of flavored milk.

Haruka Takeda

Drinking Flavored or Plain Milk is Positively Associated with Nutrient Intake and is Not Associated with Adverse Effects on Weight Status in US Children and Adolescents.

The objective of this research was to examine health effects of flavored milk by comparing three groups of children and adolescents who drink flavored milk, plain milk, or no milk. In order to discover connections between consumption of flavored milk and body mass index (BMI), the researchers collected data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys during 1999-2002 and applied linear regression analysis in order to identify milk-drinking status of 7,557 participants who were age between 2 to 18 years old at the time of data collection.

The milk consumption of participants who drink flavored milk on regular basis was higher than the other groups. However, level of nutrient intakes was similar among participants who drink flavored milk and those who drink plain milk while it was much lower for nondrinkers. The sugar intakes were indifferent among all groups, but the weights of those who drink flavored milk or plain milk were not heavier, but rather, lighter when compared to the nondrinkers. Thus, this research did not find links between consumption of flavored milk and higher sugar intakes for children and adolescents. On contrary to what media had publicized in the past and widely accepted knowledge, drinking flavored milk has positive health effects such as higher nutrient intakes of vitamin A, calcium, phosphorus, magnesium, and potassium, and it does not affect BMI measures and weights.

School Children's Consumption of Lower-Calorie Flavored Milk: A Plate Waste Study

The researchers conducted a study in elementary schools to examine whether children who drink lower-calorie flavored milk will drink most of their milk in comparison to those drinking higher fat or higher sugar flavored milks. In order to meet needs of children and proposed regulations, milk processors succeeded to reduce calories of flavored milks by reducing the fat and sugar. For this plate waste experiment, 8 oz. lower-calorie flavored milk with less than 150 kcal. became available in 4 schools, and other 5 schools served standard flavored milk of the same quantity but with more calories.

From May to June 2010, researchers collected all the flavored milk cartons after lunch and weighed cartons individually for remaining content. The result was that children who drink standard flavored milk consumed more milk in total when compared to the peers drinking low-calorie flavored milk but only by 0.09 differences in ounce. The milk consumption of each category is: 5.52±0.10 oz. overall flavored milk consumption, 5.88±0.12 oz. standard flavored milk, and 4.92±0.17 oz. lower-calorie flavored milk.

Although children prefer flavored milk to plain milk, the main concern of health conscious parents and US Department of Agriculture is high calorie intakes. However, milk is an important source of nutrients such as vitamin D, calcium, and potassium especially during the developmental periods of children. For the past years, the milk consumption is at its lowest due to change in patterns of beverage consumption. As a result, only those children who drink milk with school lunch meet recommended daily intakes.

The society perceives sugar as evil with many studies supporting adverse effects of consuming flavored milk due to its high sugar contents. However, it is more likely that children who include flavored milk in their daily diet meet their calcium requirements. With reduced amount of fat and sugar, lower-calorie flavored milk may enhance children’s health without any significant calorie increase. Furthermore, reduced calorie does not affect consumption drastically; children will still prefer lower-calorie flavored milk to plain milk. The real problem lies in children who do not drink milk but instead drink other sugar-sweetened drinks.

Impact on Milk Consumption and Nutrient Intakes from Eliminating Flavored Milk in Elementary Schools

Many elementary schools have removed flavored milk recently in response to concerns surrounding high sugar contents, which affected children’s overall milk consumption and nutrient intakes. The study measured 49 of those elementary schools for 12 days during school breakfast and lunchtime. The result suggested that when schools removed flavored milk for five school days, milk sales decreased by 26.0%, amount of discarded milk increased by 11.4% at the end of the meal, and overall milk consumption decrease by 37.4%.

It is evident that not only removing flavored milk had significantly influenced children’s milk consumption, but also children are not getting enough nutrients. Decrease in total milk consumption directly affects the diet and its quality of children who consume flavored milk daily. The purpose of the removal was to reduce sugar intakes, however, overall decrease in nutrient intakes raises another concern. The blind spot of this health conscious movement was that children do not automatically shift to plain milk once flavored milk becomes unavailable. As a consequent, children select other beverages instead of plain milk, which may be less nutritional or healthy. Ensuring sufficient nutrition to these children is essential for healthy development and building balanced diet.

The unintended consequence of children’s lower milk consumption may eventually cause undernourishment. It is a good reminder that flavored milk provides the same nutrients as plain milk, and more than two-thirds of children in school choose flavored milk over plain milk. Children who prefer flavored milk does not necessary mean they are on unhealthy diet with more sugar or fat, but are more likely to fulfill recommended nutritional intake than the counterparts. Instead of adding the product back in stock, introducing lower-calorie flavored milk may be alternative. Nonetheless, other sugar added drinks such as soda are popular among children these days. These beverages may be the true contributors of higher sugar intakes and lesser nutrients, which require more evaluation in the near future.

Part 3: Sampling and Data Collection Plan

Population and Size, Target Population, and Brief Reasoning

Based on the literature review and research conducted by the team, the most number of explorations conducted with milk studies involve correlations with school-aged children. In this research, the target population comprises ten public schools in San Diego County to obtain sample data from school children in grades 2, 4, and 6. The team selects one class from each grade level with an estimated average of 30 students bringing the expected total sample to 300. The schools selected are known to use only Natural Farms’ milk products as part of the supplier and distribution contract. The chosen schools are instrumental in generating good statistical data on milk consumption preferences such as white milk, or low-fat flavored milk because they served these beverages in school lunches. Furthermore, the school children consume milk beverages to achieve an expected level of required daily nutritional intake. The team expects the target population to yield a higher probability of useful, and viable data since children freely chooses the type of milk to drink.

Sampling Design

The proposed sampling design is simple random sampling, and the sampling element is data mining and survey. Daily, cafeteria workers log the student’s chosen beverage on a survey sheet. This survey collects data on the number of students that chose white milk versus chocolate flavored milk in pre-packed 6 ounces cartons. Researchers can collect the survey sheets from school officials and use this data to arrive at a selection probability and the average number of ounces consumed daily.

The proposed quantitative study, correlational in design, allows the collection of data about a phenomenon for an explanation, and utilizing the data to draw conclusions about the research subject (Field, 2009). The quantitative research commences with the gathering of data that represent the processes and then the use of data to build statistical models in making predictions about the behavior and preferences of the school children. Also, a survey is an efficient method to collect information relevant to the behaviors, attitudes, beliefs, or emotions of respondents (Mrug, 2010). Based on a population of 300, with a 95% confidence level and a 5% margin of error, 169 is the minimum number of samples required for the research in order to get a good number of responses (see Appendix A).

Achieving Validity

Data Collection

Another data collection method is a questionnaire survey to obtain the children's preference of milk products. This questionnaire survey with an initial pretest survey conducted in a small group collects the respondent's milk flavor preference, demographics, and consumption frequency but no names are involved to protect the participant's privacy. Milk consumption and questionnaire survey results will be tallied and analyzed using tables and graphs for interpretation. Paper records will be scanned and stored electronically in a secured hard drive.

Appendix A

Sampling Plan

E = 5

Z a/2 = 1.96

n = 300

σ= .5 (the most forgiving number when value is unknown)

The minimum number of sample size needed is 169.

References

Yon, B. A., & Johnson, R. K. (2014, March). Elementary and middle school children's acceptance of lower calorie flavored milk as measured by milk shipment and participation in the national school lunch program.  American School Health Association, 84(3), 205-211. Retrieved from http://web.a.ebscohost.com.contentproxy.phoenix.edu/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=b50a3620-f116-4029-897a-bd5ce4b249f7%40sessionmgr4003&vid=1&hid=4209