For ENS. WRITER

LAB PROJECT EXTRA CREDIT:

Daily High Temperature Weather Forecasting using Data from 850 mb level in

the Atmosphere

PURPOSE:

-Learn how to predict daily high temperature for the next 5 days for a specific

location.

-Determine accuracy of your prediction by comparing to actual high temperatures

METHOD:

- The GFS (global forecast system) weather forecast model for the 850 mb level

will provide the forecasted height and temperature at your location

- The predicted maximum temperature will be forecasted using an average Dry

Adiabatic Lapse Rate (DALR) for an air parcel brought from the 850 mb to the

surface at your location.

DUE DATE:

- Wed June 10 at 11 AM (no late papers will be accepted)

- Submit via email [email protected]

DETAILS:

1. Find your assigned location

-Go to Bb learn and open up the file labeled Lab Project and the file

labeled Assignments. Find your assigned location.

2. Go to http://ametsoc.org/amsedu/login.cfm

-Username: drex269 Password: yr!5wx

-Click on Upper Air: Available Upper Air Stations

-Click on your location and then double click on the map at the name

of your location

- Search the internet for the altitude of your location, convert to

Meters if necessary (Google: feet to meters conversion)

3. Go to http://weather.unisys.com/index.php

-Click on Forecast: GFS/Avn model

-Click on 850 mb plots

-Click on Time: 12 hr.

Note: this should be the plot valid for your start date at 12 Z

- Copy charts and then paste into your report

-Repeat for 36 hr., 60 hr., 3.5 day, 4.5 day and 5.5 day

Use a new page for each day

-Just for your own knowledge click on loop to see changes over time

4. Get data from each of the charts for 850 mb temperature and height and

record in your report for each day

-For height note that the spacing between lines is 30 meters.

5. Determine expected high temperature for each day

- See example below

-Assume that a parcel of air when descending from the height of the

current 850 mb level to the surface at your location is warmed by:

10 0C/ 1000 meters in the summer

8 0C/1000 meters in the fall and spring,

6 0C/1000 meters in the winter.

(Example below uses 10 0C/1000)

- Calculation

T(0C)Predicted temp =T(0C)850mb + (Change in Elevation (meters) * 100C/1000 meter

For example above 250C = 13 (0C) + (1520m -320m)* 100C/1000 meter

-Convert to Fahrenheit (google: Centigrade to Fahrenheit conversion)

-Show calculation for each of the 6 days and record predicted high temp.

6. Find actual high temperature for each day at your location

-Go to: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/osd/portal.shtml . Enter your state

and make your best guess at the location that you have been assigned

- Copy and paste (may need to do a print screen to copy page) data for each

day into your report for each day (use must have this table to receive

credit).

7. Summary of data:

-Make a table predicted and actual high temperature for each day and plot

a bar graph

8. Submission:

-Page 1: Cover page with the project title, your name, location name and

altitude.

-Page 2: Summary of Findings. Include data table, bar graph and about a

paragraph summarizing what is shown in the bar graph. Include

your opinion of the validity of this weather forecasting technique.

-Pages 3 -8: Temperature chart from NOAA (see #7 above) and 850 mb

chart from Unisys (see # 6 above).