For ENS. WRITER
qiaylhr
example_spring_extra_credit.pdf
Daily High Temperature Weather Forecasting using Data
from 850 mb level in the Atmosphere
PHEV 145, Spring 2015
For
KIAD, Washington DC, Reagan National Airport
Altitude 4.6 m
Jerry Steinberg
Summary of Findings
Day 0 Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Calculated 73.7 64.7 61.6 65.1 73.6 74.5
Actual 66 68 68 78 83 69 Actual - Calculated
-7.7 3.3 6.4 12.9 9.4 -5.5
The bar graph above shows very inconsistent results. One would expect that the actual –calculated
would become greater as the days progressed but the results here are more random and do not show a
trend with time. Based on this data this method is not reliable for this location during this season (early
spring).
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Day 0 Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5
T e
m p
e ra
tu re
d
e g
C
Day
850 mb Accuracy
Calculated Actual
Day 0, April 14
Height of 850 mb level: 1530 meters
Temperature at 850 mb level: 110C
Calculated Peak temperature: 11 0C + [(1530 -4.6) meters *80C/1000 meters] = 23.2 0C = 73.70F
Actual Max Temp: 66
Day 1, April 15
Height of 850 mb level: 1530 meters
Temperature at 850 mb level: 60C
Calculated Peak temperature: 6 0C + [(1530 -4.6) meters *80C/1000 meters] = 18.2 0C = 64.70F
Actual Max Temp: 680F
Day 2, April 16
Height of 850 mb level: 1560 meters
Temperature at 850 mb level: 40C
Calculated Peak temperature: 4 0C + [(1560 -4.6) meters *80C/1000 meters] = 16.4 0C = 61.60F
Actual Max Temp: 680F
Day 3, April 17
Height of 850 mb level: 1550 meters
Temperature at 850 mb level: 60C
Calculated Peak temperature: 6 0C + [(1550 -4.6) meters *80C/1000 meters] = 18.4 0C = 65.10F
Actual Max Temp: 78
Day 4, April 18
Height of 850 mb level: 1500 meters
Temperature at 850 mb level: 110C
Calculated Peak temperature: 11 0C + [(1500 -4.6) meters *80C/1000 meters] = 23.1 0C = 73.60F
Actual Max Temp: 83
Day 5, April 20
Height of 850 mb level: 1520 meters
Temperature at 850 mb level: 110C
Calculated Peak temperature: 11 0C + [(1520 -4.6) meters *80C/1000 meters] = 23.6 0C = 74.50F
Actual Max Temp: 69
