Statistics Assignment "Executive Summary"

Business Problem (Executive Summary) #2

Spring 2015

The metropolitan housing department has asked you to develop a forecast for a leading economic indicator: housing starts by number of units. The manager of that department is especially interested in whether he/she can advertise the metropolitan area as a fast growing area.

You may work in pairs. Each pair may select or will be assigned to a large metropolitan area (population > 200,000) of interest in the USA. You will need to collect annual or monthly data on housing starts by number of units. Your goal is to develop a forecast for 4 periods ahead. Reserve (do not use in your work) your most current data point from your original data so that you can compare your forecast to actual data; in other words, use all data collected except your most recent data point in developing your best forecast model. Investigate other economic indicators for the metropolitan area and include this discussion in your executive summary under results. If you choose annual data, please use at least 15 years of data. If you choose monthly data, please go back to January 2010 and find as much data as possible.

Data collection:

· Use http://www.census.gov/construction/bps/ to collect your data. Select either “Permits by Metropolitan Area—Monthly” or “Permits by Metropolitan Area—Annual).

· Document your data collection with a snip of the data from your data source; include in the appendix.

Executive summary:

· Due Monday, April 13, 2015.

· Block format (single spaced with double space between paragraphs) & title centered:

1) Statement of problem

2) Methods

3) Results

4) Conclusions/Recommendations

5) Limitations

· Graphs and tables should be used and referred to in the text of your executive summary.

· The executive summary is a stand-alone document; don’t refer to the appendix.

· Be concise and write for a general audience

Evidence (appendix):

· Explain how the data was collected showing a snip of the data from the website

· Graphs are expected; a time series plot is required

· Explain your thinking about what models to be used and explain how those were chosen

· Try all appropriate models…show all work in the appendix with interpretations for each output presented below or beside each JMP output….explain how you chose your best model

· Show JMP work for forecasts for each model even those that are not the best

· Compare your best model’s forecast to actual data

· Cite sources that you used to find information about other economic indicators

All work must be turned in by the designated time and date with no exceptions both in Moodle and in class; your executive summary with appendix should be submitted in class as a printed document. In addition to the summary and evidence, please upload your JMP data set in Moodle. I will not grade your assignment until I have the data set available. Please save the executive summary and appendix as a single document, with the appendix starting on a new page. You may use either .docx or .pdf.