Research,the application of ideas from the literature, problem solving and critical analysis (REPORT)
MDNAQ
scenarioplanaimsteps.pptxWeek 6
Scenario Planning
Progressing your enquiry
EOI – thinking about report and SLS,
Lit review topic – finalise sub headings
Scenario Plan – Start building your group’s scenario - week 6
Group report draft week 8
Submit week 9 (before seminar)
Why scenario plan?
Scenario planning or building is a tool:
Part of strategic planning
Seeing the future in different ways to assist to decide what to do today
“learning from the future”
Linking the uncertainty of the future with decisions that have been made in the current context
Using imagination and analysis it broadens your approach to strategy and planning
Connecting us to discover and answer questions that allow for reflection and consideration
Scenarios are imagined futures
It’s a strategic way to address complex issues
To apply an approach of ‘intuitive logics’ (Jungermann and Thuring, 1987) to make sense of complexity and ambiguity in terms of possibility and plausibility
To explore the interrelationships between multiple factors in terms of cause/effect and chronology and to realise that the possibilities are not unlimited
To understand that whilst the future is largely unpredictable and unknown, it is also largely knowable and understandable
Not to predict ‘the future’, but to better understand the present
To provide a framework for better informed decision making
Aims of scenario thinking
©2011 g.cairns/g.wright
4
Key elements
Framing questions – synthesizing information to two key questions
Building Scenario worlds- wildcards, trends, critical uncertainties
Environments:
(I)NSPECT: Interpretation, natural environment, society, politics, economics, culture & technology
Creating snap shots of how the world might turn out
Re-perceiving the present
5
Living scenarios
Living scenarios we mean shared, ongoing explorations of how the future might unfold, leading to evolving visions that are plausible , acceptable (consistent with aspirations for human wellbeing) and workable (agreed to the extent necessary for action).
Not preordained and specified futures, living scenarios are maps of the future that can be reworked, adapted and, if necessary, transformed.
Living scenarios allow for flexibility and ambiguity; of necessity, they are refashioned in response to changing circumstances.
Reflect a rich diversity of opinions, values and aspirations, to identify envelopes of possibilities shaped by the intersection between aspirations and realities.
Tool for achieving an acceptably coherent vision of the future, and a set of pathways towards it.
(Raupach et al 2013)
“A major focus is on how the future might evolve from today’s point-in-time to the horizon year of the scenario – say 15-20 years hence. Scenario thinking analyses the relationships between:
the critical uncertainties (as they resolve themselves);
Important trends (such as demographics), and
the behavior of actors who have a stake in the particular future (who tend to act to preserve and enhance their own interests)”
(Wright and Cairns, 2011: p.9)
Aims of ‘scenario thinking’
©2011 g.cairns/g.wright
7
How to be ahead of the curve?
What are the preconditions for the scenario to unfold
What are the small signs of change
What are customers saying, showing?
Look at suppliers?
Check your competition?
Changes in the industry
Stakeholders
Awareness of the political climate
Social attitudes and values
Economic policy
General trends e.g. fashion, demographics, social movements, art , graffiti etc.
Framing questions
The big picture – weather, natural resources, religion, demographics, religion, technology
Wildcards – key events that are game changers, create shifts in attitudes how things are done.
Asking the oracle- INSPECT categories
Nightmares – what keeps awake at night and don’t want to happen, war? Pandemics?
Not about our ideals but objectively what could happen
Building your scenario
We have prepared the bare bones of 4 scenarios
Scenario one Under the rainbow – the great divide
Scenario two I have a dream – Collaborative
Scenario three Wall street – Corporatisation
Scenario four Back to the future – post capitalism
First task is to tease out your scenario
Ask some key questions to expand each of the scenarios
Develop your framing Qs
Added work and industry
10
Developing framing Qs
As a group, agree the single most important issue that causes uncertainty about the future of work, industry provision/ production and define it in a few words: e.g. ‘The impact of social media on young adult music buying patterns’
Here, the focal issue of concern is………….?
Develop framing question(s) that reflect your key focus
E.G Will there be customer service reps in the future?
What will facilitate worker representation?
Will everyone work for themselves?
What is the key ‘focal issue of concern’ facing the workers, organisations over the next 20-30 years?
What is currently causing inaction and inertia?
What confusion exists that prevents a unified focus on strategic planning and action?
What keeps you awake at night?
Stage 1 – Setting the scenario agenda
©2011 g.cairns/g.wright
12
Each group will….
Develop 1-2 framing questions
Complete full scenario drawing on any information you consider relevant
Particularly focusing on work/ industry section
(this will be in the appendix of report)
Adopting a ‘round robin’ approach, where each member gets to present a single relevant idea in turn, with individuals dropping out as ideas are exhausted
Accepting and agreeing that no idea can be challenged or excluded on the basis that it is ‘wrong’ or ‘nonsense’
Allowing only questions of clarification, such as ‘Why do you think that…?’, ‘What would happen if…?’, ‘Who do you think would…?’
Holding a truly democratic forum that invites creativity, innovation and fresh ideas
Ground rules for team-based scenario projects
©2011 g.cairns/g.wright
14
Today
Step 1 each person in group take on a role to do your scenario plan
HR Director
Managing Director
Worker / union representative
External consultant re (e.g. Artist - designer, sustainability- green, life coach, astrologer)
Customer
Legal advisor
Step 2
Conduct round robin where each group member suggestions creative, imaginative ideas about a possible scenario.
(In real life orgs come up with 3 – 4 scenarios, can draw on basic scenarios on webct)
Step 3
Your main task is:
complete a scenario that’s gives a picture of your future world what you think it will look like.
Build a detailed picture of workplace/industry section
Make sure you pay attention to each section so you can justify how you see developments in work, industry, employment.
It should fit with broader developments of economic, political etc.
Step 4
Develop framing questions that focus on the area you wish to focus on around work.
Come up with 2 framing questions.
Complete your group scenario using the template
Give your scenario a name
Week 6 – this week – scenario planning, discuss ideas
Week 7 – group assignment and marking criteria, discuss draft with facilitator;
Week 8 – No seminar do online discussion on group
Week 9 -- submit group assignment, begin to develop Student led seminar (SLS) ideas, presentation and expo entry
Week 10 – develop poster/expo entry & discussing concepts with facilitators, marking criteria
Week 11 – FOW SLS (assessed)
Week 12 – Final peer assessments & reflective journal assessment, evaluation of unit.
Page 19
Assessments & Activities – Summary Weeks 6-12
What have you established about your group interests?
Discuss group member strengths and weaknesses?
Building on strengths and improving on weaknesses how will you progress your work?
What information do you need to gather?
What do you know about change theory and frameworks? Do you need more info?
What decisions do you need to make?
What are the tasks and issues to follow up?
How is your group working together, are there any communications problems you need to discuss, issues of participation and contribution?
Progressing your enquiry
What theme will you explore?
What readings will you use?
What structure – eg, headings,
Show dot points of main ideas today
How will you divide the group work?
How can you make sure its edited as a complete paper – not just bits joined together that don’t fit, check references etc? (set up group drop box account, google docs? Use webct discussion groups? facebook ?)
Progressing your enquiry
