Research,the application of ideas from the literature, problem solving and critical analysis (REPORT)

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Mega t r ends o r Megam i s t akes? Wha t eve r Happened t o t he I n f o r ma t i on Soc i e t y?

Tom Fo r es t e r Schoo l o f Compu t i ng & I n f o r ma t i on Techno l ogy G r i f f i t h Un i ve r s i t y , Queens l and , Aus t r a l i a

Wha t eve r happened t o t he I n f o r ma t i on Soc i e t y? Whe r e i s t he I n f o r ma t i on Age? Wha t , i ndeed , happened t o t he " wo r ke r l ess " f ac t o r y , t he " pape r l ess " o f f i ce and t he " cash l ess " soc i e t y? Why a r en ' t we a l l l i v i ng i n t he " e l ec t r on i c co t t age , " p l ay i ng ou r pa r t i n t he push - bu t t on " t e l edemoc r acy " - o r s i mp l y r e l ax i ng i n t he " l e i su r e soc i e t y , " wh i l e mach i nes exh i b i t i ng " a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i gence " do a l l t he wo r k?

Remembe r when t he m i c r och i p f i r s t appea r ed on t he scene i n t he l a t e 1970 ' s and we we r e t o l d t ha t soc i a l t r ans f o r ma t i on was i nev i t ab l e? Remembe r t he S i emens r epo r t , wh i ch a l l eged l y p r ed i c t ed t ha t 40 pe r cen t o f o f f i ce j obs wou l d soon be sac r i f i ced t o t he " j ob de - s t r oye r " ? And t he p l an by one Du t ch po l i t i ca l pa r t y f o r a new t ax on au t oma t i on? Remembe r , i ndeed , t he US Sena t e comm i t t ee r epo r t wh i ch ea r nes t l y d i scussed t he soc i a l i mp l i ca t i ons o f a 22 hou r wo r k week by 1985 and r e t i r emen t a t age 38?

Reca l l , t oo , how we have been r egu l a r l y assau l t ed w i t h t r endy buz z - wo r ds and ug l y ac r onyms by ma r ke t r esea r che r s and compu t e r vendo r s ove r r ecen t yea r s , p r om i s i ng us t ha t t he v i deod i sc , t he v i deo t e l ephone , e l ec t r on i c ma i l , t e l econ f e r enc i ng , v i deo t ex , desk t op pub l i sh i ng , mu l t i med i a , I SDN , ED I , OS I , M I S , E I S , EFT - POS , R I SC , CASE , MAP , J I T , C I M , CD - ROM , DAT and HDTV wou l d be t he nex t " ho t " p r oduc t and / o r t he wave o f t he f u t u r e and / o r ac t ua l l y de l i ve r t he l ong -

awa i t ed p r oduc t i v i t y pay - o f f f r om t he huge expend i t u r e on i n f o r ma t i on t echno l ogy ( I T ) ?

The t r u t h i s t ha t soc i e t y has no t changed ve r y much . The m i c r och i p has had much l ess soc i a l i mpac t t han a l mos t eve r yone p r ed i c t ed . A l l t he t a l k abou t " f u t u r e shocks " , " t h i r d waves " , " mega t r ends " and " pos t - i ndus t r i a l " soc i e t i es mus t now be t aken w i t h a l a r ge p i nch o f sa l t . L i f e goes on f o r t he vas t ma j o r i t y o f peop l e i n much t he same o l d way . Compu t e r s have i n f i l t r a t ed many a r eas o f ou r soc i a l l i f e , bu t t hey have no t t r ans f o r med i t . Compu t e r s have p r oved t o be use f u l t oo l s - no mo r e , no l ess . None o f t he mo r e ex t r eme p r ed i c t i ons abou t t he i mpac t o f compu t e r s on soc i e t y have t u r ned ou t t o be co r r ec t . Ne i t he r U t op i a no r Dys t op i a has a r r i ved on Ea r t h as a r esu l t o f compu t e r i z a t i on .

I n t h i s add r ess , I w i l l f i r s t compa r e some o f t he i n t ended consequences o f t he I T r evo l u t i on p r ed i c t ed by t he pund i t s w i t h wha t has ac t ua l l y happened i n i mpo r t an t a r eas o f soc i e t y - espec i a l l y i n t he wo r k - p l ace and a t home . A f t e r t h i s r ev i ew , I w i l l l ook a t some t en t a t i ve exp l ana t i ons o f why so many t echno l ogy f o r ecas t e r s seem t o have go t t h i ngs hope l ess l y w r ong . I w i l l t hen r ev i ew some o f t he un i n t ended consequences o f t he I T r evo l u t i on , wh i ch we r en ' t p r ed i c t ed by t he pund i t s . These i nc l ude : t he new soc i a l p r ob l ems o f un r e l i ab l e so f t wa r e , compu t e r c r i me , so f t wa r e t he f t , hack i ng , t he c r ea t i on o f v i r uses and t he i nvas i on o f p r i vacy ; and some psycho - l og i ca l p r ob l ems assoc i a t ed w i t h compu t e r - based com - mun i ca t i on t echno l og i es - who cou l d have f o r eseen , f o r i ns t ance , t ha t t oday we wou l d be d i scuss i ng why some execu t i ves have become " commun i caho l i c " mob i l e phone use r s , " sp r eadshee t j unk i es " , " e l ec t r on i c ma i l add i c t s " and " f ax po t a t oes " ?

I w i l l conc l ude w i t h some b r i e f commen t s abou t t he r e l a t i onsh i p be t ween humans and t echno l ogy , a r gu i ng t ha t we need t o r easse r t t he p r i macy o f human va l ues .

I n t ended Consequences : The Wo r kp l ace i n t he " Le i su r e Soc i e t y "

S i nce so many o f t he ea r l y p r ed i c t i ons abou t t he soc i a l i mpac t o f I T env i saged d r ama t i c r educ t i ons i n t he quan t i t y o f pa i d emp l oymen t and / o r l a r ge i nc r eases i n t he amoun t o f f o r ced o r un f o r ced l e i su r e t i me ava i l ab l e t o t he ave r age pe r son , wo r k and l e i su r e wou l d seem an app r o - p r i a t e s t a r t i ng po i n t f o r an assessmen t o f t he ac t ua l soc i a l i mpac t o f I T .

F i r s t , t he m i c r och i p has no t pu t m i l l i ons o f peop l e ou t o f wo r k - a l t hough i t i s s t ead i l y e r od i ng emp l oymen t oppo r t un i t i es . Mass unemp l oymen t has no t occu r r ed as a r esu l t o f compu t e r i z a t i on ch i e f l y because t he i n t r oduc t i on o f compu t e r s i n t o t he wo r kp l ace has been much s l owe r and mess i e r t han expec t ed f o r a va r i e t y o f f i nanc i a l , t echn i ca l and manage r i a l r easons . I n some compan i es , compu t e r i z a t i on has ac t ua l l y been accompan i ed by i nc r eased l eve l s o f emp l oymen t . Unemp l oymen t may be r ega r ded as unaccep t ab l y h i gh i n many OECD coun t r i es , bu t econom i c r ecess i on and dec l i n i ng compe t i t i veness

Compu t e r s & Soc i e t y , Vo l . 22 , No . 1 - 4 , Oc t obe r 1992

a r e mos t l y t o b l ame . Howeve r , many manu f ac t u r e r s now have an ac t i ve po l i cy o f ' de - mann i ng ' : when and i f econom i c g r ow t h does r e t u r n t o i t s f o r me r l eve l s , l abou r w i l l no t be t aken on p r o r a t a and i nc r eased i nves t men t i n I T may ac t ua l l y r educe t he numbe r o f j obs ava i l ab l e . The r e i s a l so conce r n abou t t he se r v i ce sec t o r ' s con t i nu - i ng ab i l i t y t o c r ea t e j obs and a g r ow i ng r ea l i sa t i on t ha t t he h i gh - t ech sec t o r i t se l f w i l l r ema i n sma l l r e l a t i ve t o t o t a l emp l oymen t .

Second , t he vas t ma j o r i t y who a r e i n t he wo r k f o r ce appea r t o be wo r k i ng ha r de r t han eve r . The r e i s ve r y l i t t l e s i gn o f t he " l e i su r e " soc i e t y hav i ng a r r i ved ye t ! Acco r d - i ng t o one su r vey , t he amoun t o f l e i su r e t i me en j oyed by t he ave r age US c i t i z en sh r unk by a s t agge r i ng 37 pe r cen t be t ween 1973 and 1989 . Ove r t he same pe r i od , t he ave r age wo r k i ng week , i nc l ud i ng t r ave l - t o - wo r k t i me , g r ew f r om unde r 41 hou r s t o nea r l y 47 hou r s - a f a r c r y f r om t he 22 hou r s someone p r ed i c t ed i n 1967 ! No t e t ha t t hese i nc r eases occu r r ed j us t as compu t e r s , r obo t s , wo r d p r ocesso r s and o t he r " l abou r - sav i ng " gadge t r y we r e en t e r i ng t he wo r kp l ace . Mo r eove r , t he p r opo r t i on o f Ame r i cans ho l d i ng down a second j ob o r do i ng mo r e wo r k a t home has been i nc r eas i ng , due t o i n f l a t i on and o t he r p r essu r es on t he domes t i c s t anda r d o f l i v i ng . Much t he same so r t o f t h i ng appea r s t o be happen i ng i n Eu r o - pean coun t r i es l i ke Ge r many , whe r e weekend wo r k i ng has been r esumed i n some i ndus t r i es , and i n Aus t r a l i a , whe r e 24 - hou r wo r k i ng has been r e - i n t r oduced , f o r examp l e , i n t he coa l i ndus t r y . The Japanese , o f cou r se , con t i nue t o wo r k l onge r hou r s t han a l mos t eve r ybody e l se and r a r e l y t ake mo r e t han ve r y sho r t ho l i days .

We a r e s t i l l awa i t i ng t he " wo r ke r l ess " , " unmanned " o r " f u l l y - au t oma t ed " f ac t o r y . The " f ac t o r y o f t he f u t u r e " r ema i ns whe r e i t has a l ways been somewhe r e i n t he f u t u r e . Take i ndus t r i a l r obo t s , f o r examp l e : ana l ys t s con f i den t l y p r ed i c t ed t ha t t he US r obo t popu l a t i on wou l d t op 250 , 000 o r mo r e by 1990 . The ac t ua l f i gu r e was 37 , 000 - and some o f t hese had a l r eady been r e l ega t ed t o t r a i n i ng cen t r es and sc r ap me t a l dea l e r s . Wo r l dw i de r obo t sa l es ac t ua l l y peaked i n 1987 and have been go i ng downh i l l eve r s i nce , p r i ma r i l y because use r s have f ound t ha t t he ca r e and f eed i ng o f r obo t s i s mo r e cos t l y t han t ha t o f peop l e . Gene r a l Mo t o r s was t ed m i l l i ons on

p r ema t u r e r obo t i z a t i on and r obo t make r s have gone bus t a l l ove r t he p l ace - v i c t i ms o f t he i r own exagge r a t ed c l a i ms . Even CNC ( compu t e r nume r i ca l l y con t r o l l ed ) mach i ne t oo l s , wh i ch have been a r ound f o r some t i me , a r e no t as w i de l y used as m i gh t be expec t ed : a r ecen t s t udy f ound t ha t on l y 11 pe r cen t o f mach i ne t oo l s i n t he US me t a l wo r k i ng i ndus t r y we r e CNC ; 53 pe r cen t o f t he p l an t s su r veyed d i d no t have even one au t oma t ed mach i ne !

Compu t e r s & Soc i e t y , Vo l . 22 , No . 1 - 4 , Oc t obe r 1992

Wh i l e t he r obo t r evo l u t i on has been s t a l l ed , o t he r panaceas such as " FMS " ( f l ex i b l e manu f ac t u r i ng sys t ems ) and " C I M " ( compu t e r - i n t eg r a t ed manu f ac t u r i ng ) have been s t i l l bo r n . FMS has r a r e l y p r og r essed beyond t he " showcase " s t age and has p r oved t o be an expens i ve headache f o r t hose f ew compan i es who have t r i ed i t i n a r ea l comme r c i a l en t e r p r i se .

C I M r ema i ns a d i r ec t i on o r a d r eam: connec t i ng up a l l t he " i s l ands " o f au t oma t i on i s t ak i ng much l onge r t han expec t ed . Fu l l i mp l emen t a t i on o f C I M wou l d r equ i r e t he encod i ng o f a l l r e l evan t managemen t expe r t i se i n t o dec i s i on - mak i ng dev i ces wh i ch wou l d t hen con t r o l f au l t - f r ee mach i nes w i t hou t human i n t e r ven t i on - t h i s seems somewha t un l i ke l y i n t he sho r t t e r m . MAP ( manu f ac t u r i ng au t oma t i on p r o t oco l ) was supposed t o be t he b r eak t h r ough wh i ch wou l d enab l e mach i nes t o " t a l k " t o each o t he r , bu t i t was s l ow t o ca t ch on and i t has been ove r t aken by a numbe r o f o t he r i ncompa t i b l e , compe t i ng p r o t oco l s l i ke OR I n gene r a l , manu f ac t u r e r s have had t o r ev i se t he i r au t oma t i on s t r a t eg i es - s t eady upg r ad i ng seems t o have r ep l aced t he 1980 ' s concep t o f t o t a l au t oma t i on .

The " pape r l ess " o f f i ce now l ooks t o be one o f t he f unn i es t p r ed i c t i ons made abou t t he soc i a l i mpac t o f I T . Mo r e and mo r e t r ees a r e be i ng f e l l ed t o sa t i s f y ou r vas t appe t i t e f o r pape r , i n o f f i ces wh i ch we r e supposed by now t o be a l l - e l ec t r on i c . I n t he US , pape r consump t i on has r ocke t ed 320 pe r cen t ove r t he pas t 30 yea r s , ahead o f r ea l GDP wh i ch has gone up 280 pe r cen t . I n abso l u t e t e r ms , t h i s means t ha t US consume r s gobb l ed up 4 t r i l l i on pages o f pape r l as t yea r , compa r ed w i t h on l y 2 . 5 t r i l l i on i n 1986 - abou t t he t i me t ha t wo r d p r ocesso r s and pe r sona l compu t e r s we r e becom i ng r ea l l y popu l a r . The t wo mos t success f u l o f f i ce p r oduc t s o f r ecen t t i mes - t he pho t ocop i e r and t he f ax mach i ne a r e o f cou r se eno r mous use r s o r gene r a t o r s o f pape r , wh i l e t echno l og i es wh i ch do no t use pape r - such as e l ec t r on i c ma i l and vo i ce ma i l - have been s l ow t o ca t ch on . The ove r a l l ma r ke t f o r " o f f i ce au t oma t i on " equ i pmen t i s no t as s t r ong as i t was i n t he 1980 ' s , bu t sa l es o f desk t op l ase r p r i n t e r s a r e boom i ng - and o f cou r se t hey a l so consume vas t amoun t s o f pape r . ED I ( e l ec t r on i c documen t i n t e r change ) m i gh t he l p r educe pape r consump t i on i n t he f u t u r e , bu t i t w i l l be some t i me be f o r e i t becomes a s i gn i f i can t f o r ce .

Desp i t e t he huge i nc r ease i n t e l ephone usage and t he ex i s t ence o f e l ec t r on i c ma i l and v i deo t ex , o l d - f ash i oned su r f ace ma i l - much o f i t pape r - i n t ens i ve " j unk " ma i l - i s s t i l l g r ow i ng i n vo l ume i n mos t i ndus t r i a l coun t r i es . Pape r - us i ng " j unk f axes " a r e a l so on t he i nc r ease . Banks s t i l l r e l y on pape r t o a su r p r i s i ng deg r ee , desp i t e EFT ( e l ec t r on i c f unds t r ans f e r ) and p l as t i c t r ansac t i on ca r ds . A r ecen t I BM s t udy es t i ma t ed t ha t 95 pe r cen t o f i n f o r ma -

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t i on i n bus i ness en t e r p r i ses i s s t i l l i n pape r f o r m . I t has a l so been sugges t ed ( Bus i ness Week , 3 June 1991 ) t ha t on l y 1 pe r cen t o f a l l t he i n f o r ma t i on i n t he wo r l d i s s t o r ed on compu t e r s . The US Pen t agon r ecen t l y dec l a r ed " wa r " on pape r : apa r t f r om t he no r ma l pape r p r ob l ems o f

a l l unw i e l dy bu r eauc r ac i es , t he Pen t agon now has t o cope w i t h t he huge amoun t s o f documen t a t i on wh i ch go w i t h comp l ex h i gh - t ech weapons sys t ems . Fo r examp l e , a t yp i ca l US Navy c r u i se r pu t s t o sea w i t h no l ess t han 26 t onnes o f manua l s f o r i t s weapons sys t ems - enough t o a f f ec t t he pe r f o r mance o f t he vesse l !

Wh i l e w i t h h i nds i gh t i t was pe r haps un r easonab l e t o have expec t ed t ha t au t oma t ed f ac t o r i es and o f f i ces wou l d be a r ea l i t y by now , a r e we a t l eas t mov i ng i n r i gh t d i r ec t i on? Su r e l y t he huge amoun t o f spend i ng on I T equ i pmen t has had some pos i t i ve i mpac t , pa r t i cu l a r l y on p r oduc t i v i t y? Un f o r t una t e l y , t he s t ud i es ava i l ab l e a l l i nd i ca t e t ha t t he p r oduc t i v i t y pay - o f f f r om I T has been somewha t s l ow i n com i ng - i n f ac t , i t i s ha r d t o de t ec t any pay - o f f a t a l l ! Th i s ce r t a i n l y appea r s t o be t he case i n manu f ac t u r i ng . I n t he se r v i ce sec t o r , i nc l ud i ng bank i ng and comme r ce , educa t i on and hea l t h ca r e , p r oduc t i v i t y seems ac t ua l l y t o have dec l i ned i n r ecen t yea r s ( a l t hough t h i s conc l us i on i s appa r en t l y based on agg r ega t e f i gu r es wh i ch wou l d appea r t o mask wha t has been ach i eved i n i nd i v i dua l f i r ms and o r gan i sa t i ons ) .

The r e a r e many poss i b l e exp l ana t i ons f o r t h i s appa r en t pa r adox : t he f avou r i t e i s t ha t t he r e i s a " l ea r n i ng cu r ve " assoc i a t ed w i t h I T . Thus i t w i l l be some t i me be f o r e we - and i n pa r t i cu l a r , I T manage r s - l ea r n t o use t he s t u f f p r ope r l y . Typ i ca l l y i n o f f i ces , po t en t i a l p r oduc t i v i t y ga i ns a r e f r i t t e r ed away t h r ough compu t e r g l i t ches , t he excess i ve r e - d r a f t i ng o f documen t s , end l ess r e t r a i n i ng , i d l e cha t t e r and even game - p l ay i ng : i n one r ecen t su r vey o f 750 US execu t i ves , 66 pe r cen t o f r esponden t s sa i d t ha t t hey r egu l a r l y used t he i r compu t e r f o r p l ay i ng games ( t h i s d i d no t i nc l ude p l ay i ng a r ound w i t h sp r eadshee t s and t he l i ke ) . Ha l f o f t hese ac t ua l l y adm i t t ed t o p l ay i ng games i n o f f i ce hou r s - i n f ac t , t h i s r ec r ea t i on ac t i v i t y was ove r whe l m i ng p r e f e r r ed t o l unch t i me d r i nk i ng and i n t r a - o f f i ce sex ( wh i ch i s , o f cou r se , ve r y t r i cky i n mode r n , open - p l an o f f i ces ) .

The Home : Whe r e i s t he " E l ec t r on i c Co t t age " ?

One o f t he mos t pe r vas i ve my t hs o f t he I T r evo l u t i on i s t ha t l a r ge numbe r s o f peop l e w i l l " soon " be wo r k i ng f r om home , shopp i ng f r om home and bank i ng f r om home . The appea l i ng no t i on o f t he " e l ec t r on i c co t t age " was f i r s t made popu l a r by w r i t e r s such as A l v i n To f f l e r

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( who gave a new ve r b t o t he Eng l i sh l anguage - t o " t o f f l e " , as i n " wa f f l e " ) . The gene r a l i dea was t ha t t he I ndus t r i a l Revo l u t i on had t aken peop l e ou t o f t he i r homes - and now t he I T r evo l u t i on wou l d a l l ow t hem t o r e t u r n . I t has s i nce become a r ecu r r i ng t heme i n t he l i t e r a t u r e on t he soc i a l i mpac t o f compu t e r s and has become f i r m l y i mp l an t ed i n t he pub l i c consc i ousness as an a l l eged l y w i desp r ead soc i a l t r end .

The on l y p r ob l em w i t h t h i s a t t r ac t i ve scena r i o i s t ha t i t i s no t happen i ng . The r e i s ve r y l i t t l e ev i dence t o sugges t t ha t i nc r eas i ng numbe r s o f peop l e a r e wo r k i ng f r om home f u l l - t i me , a l t hough some p r o f ess i ona l s a r e do i ng mo r e wo r k a t home us i ng t he i r " e l ec t r on i c b r i e f case " . Mos t su r veys wou l d seem t o i nd i ca t e t ha t on l y abou t 10 pe r cen t o f t he t o t a l wo r k f o r ce i n t he US and Eu r ope wo r k f r om home f u l l - t i me on a va r i e t y o f t asks , j us t as t hey have a l ways done . Desp i t e some we l l - pub l i c i z ed h i gh - t ech homewo r k i ng expe r i men t s - wh i ch have t yp i ca l l y been on a sma l l sca l e and have usua l l y been abandoned a f t e r a wh i l e - t he numbe r o f ac t ua l " t e l ecommu t e r s " who use I T equ i pmen t t o p r ocess and t r ansm i t t he i r wo r k r a t he r t han phys i ca l l y commu t e t o wo r k r ema i ns ve r y sma l l . One au t ho r i t y who has s t ud i ed t e l ecommu t i ng f o r t he bes t pa r t o f a decade r ecen t l y

conc l uded t ha t i t i s " no t a s i gn i f i can t phenomenon " ( O l son 1989 ) .

The r easons why h i gh - t ech homewo r k i ng has no t t aken o f f a r e i ns t r uc t i ve . P r oponen t s have g l ossed ove r bas i c p r ob l ems l i ke t he space cons t r a i n t s i n mos t houses and apa r t men t s , t he f ac t t ha t t he r e a r e no t many occupa t i ons wh i ch can be ca r r i ed on a t home and t he manage r i a l p r ob l ems f aced by t he emp l oye r s o f homewo r ke r s . Bu t mos t i mpo r t an t o f a l l , t he t echnoc r a t s who have advoca t ed i nc r eased t e l ecommu t i ng as a poss i b l e so l u t i on t o t r a f f i c conges t i on and a i r po l l u t i on have se r i ous l y unde r - es t i ma t ed t he human o r psycho l og i ca l p r ob l ems o f wo r k i ng a t home . A l mos t w i t hou t excep t i on , h i gh - t ech homewo r ke r s r epo r t a hos t o f p r ob l ems such as i nc r eased f am i l y con f l i c t , ne i ghbou r hood no i se , l one l i ness , i nab i l i t y t o d i v i de wo r k f r om l e i su r e , wo r kaho l i sm , s t r ess and bu r nou t - I shou l d know , I wo r ked f r om home f u l l - t i me f o r seven yea r s wh i l e b r i ng i ng up a young f am i l y and expe r i enced mos t o f t hem ! ( O f f i ve o t he r homewo r ke r s I f o l l owed i n t he UK , on l y one con t i nued t o wo r k a t home on a l ong - t e r m bas i s . )

I f r e l a t i ve l y f ew peop l e w i l l be wo r k i ng a t home i n yea r s t o come , w i l l mo r e peop l e be s t ay i ng a t home and us i ng I T - based gadge t r y f o r en t e r t a i nmen t pu r poses , t o access v i deo t ex i n f o r ma t i on se r v i ces , and t o bank , shop and even vo t e f r om t he i r l i v i ng r ooms? Ce r t a i n l y , t he 200

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m i l l i on VCR ' s so l d wo r l dw i de canno t be i gno r ed , no r can cu r r en t sa l es o f CD p l aye r s , camco r de r s , v i deo games conso l es and o t he r consume r e l ec t r on i cs goods . Bu t i n gene r a l t he ev i dence o f i nc r eased pa r t i c i pa t i on t o da t e i s no t encou r ag i ng and as Schnaa r s ( 1989 ) po i n t s ou t , some f amous ma r ke t r esea r ch f i r ms have cons i s t en t l y ove r es t i ma t ed t he ma r ke t f o r home bank i ng , shopp i ng and i n f o r ma t i on se r v i ces .

Fewe r t han 1 pe r cen t o f US househo l ds use any k i nd o f v i deo t ex i n f o r ma t i on se r v i ce , even t hough i t was p r ed i c t ed i n 1980 t ha t 5 pe r cen t o f a l l US househo l ds wou l d be hooked up by 1985 ( B r ody 1991 ) . B r i t a i n ' s P r es t e i s t i l l l angu i shes w i t h a sma l l and dec l i n i ng use r base . Even v i deo t ex boos t e r s now adm i t t ha t i n f o r ma t i on se r v i ces o f f e r i ng such t h i ngs as cons t an t news and wea t he r upda t es , cu r r en t s t ock p r i ces and f l i gh t t i mes a r e l i ke l y t o have on l y l i m i t ed appea l . Mo r eove r , v i deo t ex i s no t easy t o use , i t i s s l ow and i t i s i n f l ex i b l e . I t i s a l so cos t l y and mos t consume r s have been unw i l l i ng t o pay f o r me r e i n f o r ma t i on . The on l y v i deo t ex sys t em i n t he wo r l d t o a t t r ac t a mass aud i ence i s t he F r ench M i n i t e l sys t em wh i ch boas t s abou t 2 . 5 m i l l i on t e r m i na l s . Bu t even i n t he case o f M i n i t e l , t he r e a r e s i gns t ha t t he nove l t y o f , f o r examp l e , exchang i ng sexy messages , i s wea r i ng t h i n .

Home bank i ng has f a i l ed t o t ake o f f i n t he US and Eu r ope . The t wo mos t success f u l US expe r i men t s we r e t he Bank o f Ame r i ca ' s se r v i ce i n San F r anc i sco ( w i t h 15 , 000 c l a i med cus t ome r s ) and t he Chem i ca l Bank ' s P r on t o sys t em i n New Yo r k ( a r epo r t ed 21 , 000 subsc r i b - e r s ) , wh i l e t he Ve r b r auche r Bank o f Hambu r g , Ge r many , c l a i med t he mos t subsc r i be r s i n t he wo r l d ( 50 , 000 ) f o r i t s se r v i ce . Bu t t hese t o t a l s we r e a f a r c r y f r om t he mass i ve numbe r s env i saged when t he se r v i ces we r e l aunched i n t he ea r l y 1980 ' s . Chem i ca l Bank c l osed down P r on t o i n 1988 . Seve r a l sma l l - sca l e expe r i men t s i n t he UK wen t nowhe r e . The r e i s t a l k i n Japan o f home bank i ng be i ng r e - l aunched us i ng t he m i l l i ons o f N i n t endo conso l es i n Japanese l i v i ng r ooms , bu t bas i ca l l y home bank i ng mus t be deemed a f l op . Home bank i ng has t wo bas i c d r aw - backs : i t can ' t be used f o r cash t r ansac t i ons and mos t consume r s don ' t do enough bank i ng t o j us t i f y t he i n i t i a l cos t s o r r ecu r r i ng cha r ges . Qu i t e s i mp l y , i t ' s no t ve r y use f u l and cus t ome r s a r en ' t demand i ng i t .

I ndeed , t he con t i nued i mpo r t ance o f cash i n t he " cash l ess " soc i e t y we we r e p r om i sed i s ano t he r g r ea t pa r adox o f t he I T r evo l u t i on . ATMs ( au t oma t ed t e l l e r mach i nes ) have become ve r y popu l a r w i t h consume r s - p r ec i se l y because t hey d i spense cash . Desp i t e p l as t i c ca r ds and EFT - POS ( r ecen t l y abandoned i n New Zea -

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l and ) , t he numbe r o f bank no t es i n c i r cu l a t i on shows no s i gn o f d i m i n i sh i ng and i n Aus t r a l i a , f o r examp l e , i s i n f ac t i nc r eas i ng i n l i ne w i t h GDP .

Home shopp i ng o r t e l eshopp i ng has a l so f a i l ed m i se r ab l y . The mos t f amous home shopp i ng schemes we r e Kn i gh t - R i dde r ' s V i ew t r on expe r i men t i n F l o r i da , T i mes - M i r r o r ' s Ga t eway se r v i ce i n Ca l i f o r n i a and Cen t e l ' s Key f ax se r v i ce i n Ch i cago . Many saw V i ew t r on as t he p i onee r and i t was heav i l y p r omo t ed . Use r s cou l d shop , bank , ca t ch up w i t h t he news and access da t abases w i t hou t l eav i ng t he i r l i v i ng r oom . Bu t Kn i gh t - R i dde r managed t o s i gn up on l y 5 , 000 cus t ome r s and V i ew t r on was shu t down i n 1986 a f t e r l os i ng an as t on i sh i ng $50 m i l l i on . A t t emp t s t o ge t home shopp i ng go i ng i n t he UK we r e a l so unsuccess f u l . Home shopp i ng f a i l ed because o f p r ac t i ca l p r ob l ems such as comp l i ca t ed on - sc r een i ns t r uc t i ons , d i f f i cu l t i es ove r paymen t s , p r ob l ems w i t h de l i ve r y t i mes and a l ack o f cho i ce o f p r oduc t s . I t a l so f a i l ed t o mee t t he psycho l og i ca l needs o f shoppe r s : many peop l e en j oy shopp i ng , espe - c i a l l y t he soc i a l aspec t . Shopp i ng o f f e r s peop l e t he chance t o ge t ou t o f t he house , t o pe r haps bump i n t o f r i ends and t o r e - acqua i n t t hemse l ves w i t h t he i r l oca l commun i t y .

L i kew i se , sugges t i ons by , f o r examp l e , To f f l e r , Na i sb i t t and W i l l i ams t ha t t he I T r evo l u t i on wou l d l ead t o " push - bu t t on vo t i ng " , t o t he ho l d i ng o f " e l ec t r on i c t own mee t i ngs " and t he c r ea t i on o f a " t e l e - democ r acy " have p r oved t o be w i de o f t he ma r k . Desp i t e i nc r eased access t o i n f o r ma t i on and commun i ca t i on t echno l og i es , e l ec t o r a l t u r nou t i n t he US and mos t o t he r Wes t e r n democ r ac i es con t i nues t o dec l i ne . A r t e r t on ( 1987 ) r ecen t l y l ooked a t 13 ma j o r " t e l edemoc r acy " expe r i men t s i n t he US and f ound t ha t t he i r i mpac t on po l i t i ca l pa r t i c i pa t i on l eve l s was on l y ma r g i na l because o f t he powe r f u l f o r ces wo r k i ng aga i ns t i nc r eased i nvo l vemen t - ch i e f l y t he f ac t t ha t peop l e a r e so bomba r ded w i t h med i a messages t ha t t hey ac t ua l l y abso r b l ess and l ess . Te l edemoc r acy i s un l i ke l y t o cu r e Ame r i ca ' s seve r e t u r nou t p r ob l em , l e t a l one l ead t o a t r ans f o r ma t i on o f t he po l i t i ca l sys t em .

Thus i t seems t ha t many commen t a t o r s have ove r es t i ma t ed t he capac i t y f o r I T - based gadge t r y t o t r ans f o r m domes t i c l i f es t y l es . The a r gumen t t ha t deve l opmen t s i n consume r e l ec t r on i cs , compu t e r s and t e l ecommun i ca t i ons w i l l d r ama t i ca l l y a l t e r t he na t u r e o f

econom i c and soc i a l ac t i v i t y i n t he home i s no t suppo r t ed by t he ava i l ab l e ev i dence . Desp i t e t he a r r i va l o f m i c r o - waves , f ood p r ocesso r s , VCR ' s , CD p l aye r s , b i g - sc r een TV ' s , answe r i ng mach i nes , home f axes , wo r d p r ocesso r s and po r t ab l e phones , home l i f e r ema i ns bas i ca l l y t he same . Mo r eove r , a success i on o f r evo l u t i ona r y " homes o f t he f u t u r e " i nco r po r a t i ng va r i ous " home au t oma t i on "

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sys t ems have been bu i l t i n t he US and Eu r ope i n r ecen t decades , bu t by and l a r ge t hey have l e f t consume r s co l d . A r ecen t UK s t udy f ound t ha t peop l e cou l d do w i t h a f ew ex t r a wa r n i ng l i gh t s and such on t he i r cooke r s , bu t t hey we r e no t bo t he r ed abou t home r obo t s , f u t u r i s t i c wa l l - based sc r eens , home t e r m i na l s and au t oma t ed l i gh t i ng sys t ems .

The same so r t o f m i sca l cu l a t i on has been made i n r e l a t i on t o schoo l s . The r e i s as ye t no t much s i gn o f t he " c l ass r oom r evo l u t i on " t ak i ng p l ace and t he i dea o f human t eache r s be i ng r ep l aced by au t oma t ed t each i ng mach i nes s t i l l sounds j us t as f anc i f u l as i t a l ways d i d . A r ecen t OTA ( O f f i ce o f Techno l ogy Assessmen t ) r epo r t i n t he US po i n t ed ou t t ha t c l ass r ooms have changed ve r y l i t t l e i n t he l as t 50 yea r s - un l i ke , say , o f f i ces o r ope r a t i ng t hea t r es . Desp i t e a huge i n f l ux o f pe r sona l compu t e r s i n t o US schoo l s , t he r e i s s t i l l on l y one f o r eve r y 30 pup i l s on ave r age . Bu t even t h i s expend i t u r e i s be i ng que r i ed by some educa t i ona l i s t s , who a r gue , among o t he r t h i ngs , t ha t mo r e money shou l d be spen t on books and be t t e r t eache r s r a t he r t han compu t e r s , t ha t much educa t i ona l so f t wa r e i s t r i v i a l and o f l i m i t ed educa t i ona l va l ue , t ha t t he use o f compu t e r s i n c l ass t ends on l y t o have a sho r t - t e r m nove l t y va l ue and t ha t t he who l e no t i on o f " compu t e r l i t e r acy " does no t s t and up t o c l ose exam i na t i on ( e . g . , Rosenbe r g 1991 ) .

Why Techno l ogy P r ed i c t i ons Go W r ong

Obv i ous l y t hose i ndus t r y ana l ys t s , f o r ecas t e r s , academ i cs and w r i t e r s who have made p r ed i c t i ons i n t he pas t wh i ch have t u r ned ou t t o be comp l e t e l y w r ong do no t t end t o pub l i c i z e t he i r own m i s t akes , l e t a l one exam i ne i n pub l i c j us t whe r e and why t hey wen t w r ong . Bu t r ecen t l y t wo w r i t e r s have a t t emp t ed t o exp l a i n why so many t echno l - ogy f o r ecas t s go aw r y .

Schnaa r s ( 1989 ) r e - exam i ned ma j o r US e f f o r t s t o f o r ecas t t he f u t u r e o f t echno l ogy and f ound t hey had m i ssed t he ma r k no t by a ma t t e r o f deg r ee , bu t comp l e t e l y . Fo r examp l e , t op sc i en t i s t s and l ead i ng f u t u r i s t s i n t he 1960 ' s had p r ed i c t ed t ha t by now we wou l d be l i v i ng i n p l as t i c houses , t r ave l l i ng t o wo r k by pe r sona l ve r t i ca l t ake - o f f a i r c r a f t , f a r m i ng t he ocean f l oo r s and go i ng f o r ho l i days on t he moon . Robo t s wou l d be do i ng t he housewo r k , wo r k i ng f a r ms , f i gh t i ng wa r s f o r us , and so on . The bes t r esu l t o f t hese f o r ecas t s was a success r a t e o f abou t 15 pe r cen t . Mos t o t he r s f a i l ed m i se r ab l y - ch i e f l y , says Schnaa r s , because t he au t ho r s had been seduced by t echno l og i ca l wonde r . They we r e f a r t oo op t i m i s t i c bo t h abou t t he ab i l i t i es o f new t echno l og i es and t he des i r e o f consume r s t o make use o f

6

t hem . The f o r ecas t s we r e d r i ven by u t op i an v i s i ons r a t he r t han p r ac t i ca l i t i es and ha r d r ea l i t i es . An espec i a l l y common m i s t ake o f t he 1960 ' s p r ed i c t i ons was t o assume t ha t ex i s t i ng r a t es o f t echno l og i ca l i nnova t i on and d i f f us i on wou l d con t i nue . Schnaa r s t hus comes t o t he as t on i sh i ng conc l us i on : " The r e i s a l mos t no ev i dence t ha t f o r ecas t e r s , p r o f ess i ona l s and ama t eu r s a l i ke have any i dea wha t ou r t echno l og i ca l f u t u r e w i l l l ook l i ke . "

L i kew i se , B r ody ( 1988a , 1991 ) wen t back and l ooked a t t he f o r ecas t s made by l ead i ng US ma r ke t r esea r ch f i r ms abou t t he comme r c i a l p r ospec t s f o r r obo t s , CD - ROM ' s , a r t i f i c i a l i n t e l l i gence , v i deo t ex , supe r conduc t o r s , Josephson j unc t i ons , ga l l i um a r sen i de ch i ps , and so on . I n a l mos t eve r y case , he f ound t ha t t he ma r ke t r esea r che r s had g r oss l y exagge r a t ed t he ma r ke t f o r each p r oduc t , some t i mes by a f ac t o r o f hund r eds . The ma i n r eason f o r t h i s appa l l i ng l y l ow l eve l o f accu r acy was t ha t t he r esea r che r s had mos t l y go t t he i r i n f o r ma t i on f r om ves t ed i n t e r es t s such as i nven t o r s and vendo r s . A second l esson was t ha t new t echno l og i es o f t en d i d no t succeed because t he r e was s t i l l p l en t y o f l i f e l e f t i n o l d t echno l og i es . Consume r s i n pa r t i cu l a r we r e l oa t he t o abandon wha t t hey knew f o r some t h i ng t ha t o f f e r ed on l y a ma r g i na l i mp r ovemen t on t he o l d . P r ed i c t i ons based on s i mp l e t r end ex t r apo l a t i on we r e nea r l y a l ways w r ong and f o r ecas t e r s o f t en neg l ec t ed t o wa t ch f o r deve l opmen t s i n r e l a t ed f i e l ds . They a l so f a i l ed t o d i s t i ngu i sh be t ween t echno l ogy t r ends and ma r ke t f o r ecas t s and t hey g r ea t l y unde r es t i ma t ed t he t i me needed f o r i nnova t i ons t o d i f f use t h r oughou t soc i e t y .

Un i n t ended Consequences New Soc i a l Vu l ne r ab i l i t i es

The I T r evo l u t i on has c r ea t ed a who l e new r ange o f p r ob l ems f o r soc i e t y p r ob l ems wh i ch we r e l a r ge l y unexpec t ed . Some a r i se f r om t he p r opens i t y o f compu t e r s t o ma l f unc t i on , o t he r s a r i se f r om t he i r m i suse by humans .

As comp l ex i ndus t r i a l soc i e t i es become mo r e dependen t on compu t e r s , t hey become mo r e vu l ne r ab l e t o t echno - l og i ca l f a i l u r e because compu t e r s have o f t en p r oved t o be un r e l i ab l e , i nsecu r e and unmanageab l e . Ma l f unc t i on i ng ha r dwa r e and so f t wa r e i s much mo r e common t han many ( espec i a l l y t hose i n t he compu t e r i ndus t r y ! ) wou l d have us be l i eve . The r e i s l i t t l e doub t t ha t we pu t t oo much f a i t h i n t hese supposed l y - i n f a l l i b l e mach i nes . Compu t e r s a r e pe r mea t i ng a l mos t eve r y aspec t o f ou r l i ves , bu t un l i ke o t he r pe r vas i ve t echno l og i es such as e l ec t r i c i t y , t e l ev i s i on and t he mo t o r ca r , compu t e r s a r e on t he who l e l ess r e l i ab l e and l ess p r ed i c t ab l e i n t he i r behav i ou r . Th i s i s because t hey a r e d i sc r e t e s t a t e d i g i t a l e l ec t r on i c

Compu t e r s & Soc i e t y , Vo l . 22 , No . 1 - 4 , Oc t obe r 1992

Popu l a r a r eas f o r compu t e r ma l f unc t i ons i nc l ude t e l - ephone b i l l i ng and t e l ephone sw i t ch i ng so f t wa r e , bank s t a t emen t s and bank t e l l e r mach i nes , e l ec t r on i c f unds t r ans f e r sys t ems and mo t o r veh i c l e l i cence da t abases . I ndus t r i a l r obo t s have been known t o go be r se r k , wh i l e hea r t pacemake r s and au t oma t i c ga r age doo r opene r s have been r ende r ed use l ess by e l ec t r omagne t i c r ad i a t i on o r " e l ec t r on i c smog " em i t t ed f r om po i n t - o f - sa l e t e r m i - na l s , pe r sona l compu t e r s and v i deo games . A l t hough compu t e r s have o f t en t aken t he " b l ame " on t hese occas i ons , t he u l t i ma t e cause o f f a i l u r e i n mos t cases i s , i n f ac t , human e r r o r . The cos t o f a l l t h i s down t i me i s huge : f o r examp l e , i t has been r epo r t ed t ha t B r i t i sh bus i nesses su f f e r a r ound 30 ma j o r m i shaps a yea r , i nvo l v i ng l osses o f m i l l i ons o f pounds . The cos t o f so f t wa r e f a i l u r es a l one i n t he UK i s conse r va t i ve l y es t i ma t ed a t $900 m i l l i on pe r yea r . I n 1989 , a B r i t i sh Compu t e r Soc i e t y comm i t t ee r epo r t ed t ha t much so f t - wa r e was now so comp l ex t ha t cu r r en t sk i l l s i n sa f e t y assessmen t we r e i nadequa t e and t he r e f o r e t he sa f e t y o f peop l e cou l d no t be gua r an t eed .

Compu t e r s enab l e eno r mous quan t i t i es o f i n f o r ma t i on t o be s t o r ed , r e t r i eved and t r ansm i t t ed a t g r ea t speed on a sca l e no t poss i b l e be f o r e . Th i s i s a l l ve r y we l l , bu t i t has se r i ous i mp l i ca t i ons f o r da t a secu r i t y and pe r sona l p r i vacy because compu t e r ne t wo r ks a r e i nhe r en t l y i nsecu r e . The r ecen t ac t i v i t i es o f hacke r s and da t a t h i eves i n t he US , Ge r many and B r i t a i n have shown how a l l - t oo - easy i t s t i l l i s t o b r eak i n t o even t he mos t soph i s t i ca t ed f i nanc i a l and m i l i t a r y sys t ems . Ma l i c i ous v i r us c r ea t o r s have w r eaked havoc on i mpo r t an t academ i c and gove r n - men t commun i ca t i on ne t wo r ks . The l i s t o f scams pe r pe t r a t ed by t he new b r eed o f h i gh - t ech c r i m i na l s , r ang i ng f r om a i r l i ne t i cke t r ese r va t i on f r aud t o t he r ep r og r amm i ng o f t he ch i ps i ns i de mob i l e phones , i s g r ow i ng da i l y . Some peop l e have had t he i r ca r ee r s and l i ves r u i ned by unau t ho r i z ed use r s ga i n i ng access t o supposed l y - con f i den t i a l da t abases con t a i n i ng med i ca l , f i nanc i a l and c r i m i na l r eco r ds .

Compu t e r sys t ems a r e o f t en i nc r ed i b l y comp l ex - so comp l ex , i n f ac t , t ha t t hey a r e no t a l ways unde r s t ood even by t he i r c r ea t o r s ( a l t hough f ew a r e w i l l i ng t o adm i t i t ! ) . Th i s o f t en makes t hem comp l e t e l y unmanageab l e . Unmanageab l e comp l ex i t y can r esu l t i n mass i ve f ou l - ups o r spec t acu l a r budge t " r unaways . " Fo r examp l e , Bank o f Ame r i ca i n 1988 had t o abandon a $20 m i l l i on compu t e r

Compu t e r s & Soc i e t y , Vo l . 22 , No . 1 - 4 , Oc t obe r 1992

dev i ces wh i ch a r e p r one t o t o t a l and ca t as t r oph i c f a i l u r e . Compu t e r sys t ems , when t hey a r e " down , " a r e com - p l e t e l y down , un l i ke ana l og o r mechan i ca l dev i ces wh i ch may on l y be pa r t i a l l y down and a r e t hus s t i l l pa r t i a l l y usab l e .

sys t em a f t e r spend i ng t he yea r s and a f u r t he r

m i l l i on t r y i ng t o make i t wo r k ! A l l s t a t e I nsu r ance saw t he cos t o f i t s new sys t em r i se f r om $8 m i l l i on t o a s t agge r i ng $100 m i l l i on and es t i ma t ed comp l e t i on de l ayed f r om 1987 t o 1993 ! Mo r eove r , t he p r ob l em seems t o be ge t t i ng wo r se : i n 1988 t he Ame r i can A r b i t r a t i on Assoc i a t i on t ook on 190

compu t e r d i spu t es , mos t o f wh i ch i nvo l ved de f ec t i ve sys t ems . The c l a i ms t o t a l l ed $200 m i l l i on - up f r om on l y $31 m i l l i on i n 1984 .

Comp l ex i t y can a l so r esu l t i n d i sas t e r : no compu t e r i s 100 pe r cen t gua r an t eed because i t i s v i r t ua l l y i mposs i b l e t o an t i c i pa t e a l l sou r ces o f f a i l u r e . Ye t compu t e r s a r e r egu l a r l y be i ng used f o r a l l so r t s o f c r i t i ca l app l i ca t i ons such as sav i ng l i ves , f l y i ng a i r c r a f t , r unn i ng nuc l ea r powe r s t a t i ons , t r ans f e r r i ng vas t sums o f money and con t r o l l i ng m i ss i l e sys t ems - and t h i s can some t i mes have t r ag i c consequences . Fo r examp l e , be t ween 1982 and 1987 , some 22 US se r v i cemen d i ed i n f i ve sepa r a t e c r ashes o f t he USAF ' s soph i s t i ca t ed B l ackhawk he l i cop t e r be f o r e t he

p r ob l em was t r aced t o i t s compu t e r - based ' f l y - by - w i r e ' sys t em . A t l eas t t wo peop l e we r e k i l l ed a f t e r r ece i v i ng ove r doses o f r ad i a t i on adm i n i s t e r ed by t he compu t e r i z ed The r ac 25 X - r ay mach i nes , and t he r e a r e many o t he r examp l es o f compu t e r f ou l - ups caus i ng dea t h and i n j u r y ( Fo r es t e r and Mo r r i son 1990 ) . Jus t t o r ub i t i n , I shou l d a l so po i n t ou t t ha t compu t e r sys t ems a r e equa l l y vu l ne r ab l e t o f i r es , f l oods , ea r t hquakes and even qu i t e sho r t powe r ou t ages o r vo l t age d r ops caused by " d i r t y powe r " , as we l l as a t t acks by ou t s i de hacke r s and sabo t age f r om i ns i de emp l oyees . Fo r examp l e , i n Ch i cago i n 1986 , a d i sg r un t l ed emp l oyee a t Encyc l oped i a B r i t ann i ca , ang r y a t hav i ng been l a i d - o f f , me r e l y t apped i n t o t he encyc l oped i a ' s da t abase and made a f ew a l t e r a t i ons t o t he t ex t be i ng p r epa r ed f o r a new ed i t i on o f t he r enowned wo r k - l i ke chang i ng r e f e r ences t o Jesus Ch r i s t t o A l l ah and i nse r t i ng t he names o f company execu t i ves i n odd pos i t i ons . As one execu t i ve commen t ed , " I n t he compu t e r age , t h i s i s exac t l y wha t we have n i gh t ma r es abou t " .

A yea r l a t e r , ano t he r sabo t eu r shu t down t he en t i r e Na t i ona l Assoc i a t i on o f Secu r i t i es Dea l e r s ' au t oma t i c quo t a t i on se r v i ce ( NASDAQ ) f o r 82 m i nu t es , keep i ng 20 m i l l i on sha r es f r om be i ng t r aded . The sabo t eu r i n ques t i on was an adven t u r ous squ i r r e l , who had caused a sho r t c i r cu i t i n T r umbu l l , Connec t i cu t , whe r e NASDAQ ' s ma i n compu t e r i s s i t ua t ed . I n Aus t r a l i a , f oxes have t aken t o d i gg i ng up new op t i ca l f i b r e cab l es t o ea t t he p l as t i c cove r , wh i l e sha r ks have been do i ng t he same t o subma - r i ne f i b r e op t i c t e l ephone cab l es on t he f l oo r o f t he Pac i f i c ocean . I n Denma r k , a s t r i ke by 600 compu t e r pe r sonne l pa r a l ysed t he gove r nmen t f o r f ou r mon t hs i n 1986 , caus i ng t he r u l i ng pa r t y t o ca l l an ea r l y gene r a l e l ec t i on . I n 1987 , an Aus t r a l i an sabo t eu r ca r e f u l l y seve r ed 24

7

cab l es i n a Sydney t unne l and knocked ou t 35 , 000 t e l ephone , f ax and po i n t - o f - sa l e l i nes , pu t t i ng hund r eds o f bus i nesses i n 40 subu r bs ou t o f ac t i on f o r up t o 48 hou r s .

As soc i e t y becomes mo r e dependen t on compu t e r s , we a l so become mo r e vu l ne r ab l e t o t he m i suse o f compu t e r s by human be i ngs . The t he f t o£ copy r i gh t so f t wa r e i s w i desp r ead , wh i l e r ecen t , we l l - pub l i c i z ed i nc i den t s o f hack i ng , v i r us c r ea t i on , compu t e r - based f r aud and i nvas i on o f p r i vacy have been f o l l owed by a r i s i ng cho r us o f ca l l s f o r i mp r oved " e t h i cs " i n compu t i ng and new l aws t o p r o t ec t c i t i z ens f r om compu t e r i z ed ana r chy .

I t can be a r gued t ha t t he " i n f o r ma t i on " o r " know l edge " soc i e t y canno t poss i b l y f l ou r i sh un l ess be t t e r p r o t ec t i on i s o f f e r ed t o i nd i v i dua l s and compan i es who gene r a t e wea l t h f r om i n f o r ma t i on . Ye t copy i ng o f so f t wa r e i s a l l eged l y cos t i ng US p r oduce r s a l one $10 - 12 b i l l i on a yea r , acco r d i ng t o t he Bus i ness So f t wa r e Assoc i a t i on ( BSA ) . I n Eu r ope , whe r e so f t wa r e p i r acy i s cos t i ng p r oduce r s $4 . 5 b i l l i on a yea r acco r d i ng t o EC f i gu r es , t he BSA has been f o r ced t o moun t r a i ds on ma j o r use r s i n I t a l y and F r ance . Even i n Ge r many , " When you compa r e t he numbe r o f pc ' s so l d w i t h t he amoun t o f l eg i t i ma t e so f t wa r e so l d , t wo - t h i r ds o f t he compu t e r s mus t be used as expens i ve doo r s t ops , " says a M i c r oso f t spokesman .

I n As i a , so f t wa r e p i r acy i s r ampan t . I t has been es t i ma t ed t ha t 7 o r 8 cop i es o f we l l - known packages ex i s t f o r eve r y l eg i t i ma t e copy so l d i n S i ngapo r e , whe r e t he l oca l economy bene f i t s t o t he t une o f m i l l i ons o f do l l a r s a yea r f r om t he coun t e r f e i t i ng o f Wes t e r n p r oduc t s . I n Ta i wan ,

po l i ce r a i ds i n 1990 ne t t ed mo r e t han 5 , 000 coun t e r f e i t packages o f MS - DOS , 6 , 000 coun t e r f e i t MS - DOS manua l s i n Eng l i sh , F r ench and Ge r man , and 12 , 500 d i sks w i t h bogus M i c r oso f t l abe l s on t hem . Hong Kong po l i ce bus t ed a so f t wa r e ma i l o r de r r acke t , se i z i ng no l ess t han 109 , 000 d i sks , manua l s and o t he r coun t e r f e i t k i t f r om a wooden bu t on a r emo t e h i l l s i de . They had a s t r ee t va l ue o f $3 m i l l i on . I t i s es t i ma t ed t ha t 97% o f a l l t he so f t wa r e i n Tha i l and has been cop i ed , wh i l e copy i ng i s a l so r i f e i n Pak i s t an , Ma l ays i a , Sou t h Ko r ea and ma i n l and Ch i na . So much f o r t he econom i c " m i r ac l es " o f t hose " l i t t l e D r agons " o f As i a !

Un l ess mo r e i s done t o cu r b so f t wa r e copy i ng , we a r e l i ke l y t o see , f i r s t , a sha r p dec l i ne i n so f t wa r e p r oduc t i on . W i t h t he e r os i on o f t he po t en t i a l r ewa r ds f r om so f t wa r e deve l opmen t , p r og r amme r s a r e l i ke l y t o move i n t o mo r e l uc r a t i ve a r eas o f t he I T i ndus t r y . And f ewe r so f t wa r e p r oduce r s w i l l mean l ess i nnova t i ve so f t wa r e be i ng p r oduced . Second , con t i nued copy i ng w i l l l ead t o con t i nued r i ses i n so f t wa r e p r i ces . A l r eady , deve l ope r s

have t o r ecoup t he an t i c i pa t ed l osses f r om copy i ng by cha r g i ng mo r e t han wou l d be necessa r y i f peop l e d i d no t copy i n t he f i r s t p l ace . Because copy i ng so f t wa r e i s so easy and so w i desp r ead , t he l aw whe t he r i t be copy r i gh t l aw , pa t en t l aw o r con t r ac t l aw - i s no t a l o t o f use . Copy i ng i s ha r d t o p r ove i n cou r t and i t i s n i gh i mposs i b l e t o ca t ch cop i e r s i n t he ac t . The bes t hope f o r t he I T i ndus t r y i s t o t r y t o change soc i a l a t t i t udes and i nd i v i dua l consc i ences .

" Hacke r s " a r e ano t he r unp l anned p r oduc t o f t he I T r evo l u t i on . Mos t l y young ma l es , t hese compu t e r en t hus i as t s spec i a l i z e i n ga i n i ng unau t ho r i z ed access t o o t he r peop l es ' compu t e r sys t ems f o r f un and f o r p r o f i t . Some l i ke t he cha l l enge o f compu t e r " c r ack i ng " , some a r e l i t t l e mo r e t han e l ec t r on i c vanda l s who se t ou t t o cause damage , wh i l e o t he r s have ended up be t r ay i ng t he i r coun t r y - l i ke t he membe r s o f t he Chaos Compu t e r C l ub o f Wes t Ge r many who s t o l e US m i l i t a r y sec r e t s wh i ch t hey so l d t o t he KGB i n o r de r t o f und t he i r expens i ve d r ug hab i t s ( t he cha r r ed body o f one o f t he i r numbe r , Ka r l Koch , was l a t e r f ound i n a f o r es t ou t s i de Hannove r ) . I n t he l as t coup l e o f yea r s , eno r mous t i me and e f f o r t has a l so been spen t mak i ng good t he damage caused by ma l i c i ous compu t e r ana r ch i s t s who have l e t l oose " v i r uses " wh i ch have i n f ec t ed t housands o f sys t ems and m i l l i ons o f d i sks a r ound t he wo r l d .

The I T r evo l u t i on has a l so made i t eas i e r t o pu t peop l e unde r e l ec t r on i c su r ve i l l ance and i t has i nc r eased t he l i ke l i hood o f i nd i v i dua l s hav i ng t he i r p r i vacy i nvaded . Bu r nham ( 1983 ) po i n t ed ou t t ha t I T enab l es gove r nmen t s and comme r c i a l o r gan i sa t i ons t o s t o r e vas t amoun t s o f " t r ansac t i ona l da t a " , such as de t a i l s o f phone ca l l s , f i nanc i a l paymen t s , a i r t r ave l , and so on . F r om t hese , a compos i t e p i c t u r e o f an i nd i v i dua l ' s f r i endsh i ps , spend i ng hab i t s and movemen t s can be bu i l t up . New I T gadge t r y makes i t much eas i e r t o spy on peop l e w i t h h i dden bugs and o t he r eavesd r opp i ng dev i ces , t o ga t he r i n f o r ma t i on by , f o r examp l e , i l l i c i t phone t aps , and t o d i r ec t l y mon i t o r t he pe r f o r mance o f emp l oyees w i t h v i deos and compu t e r s . E l ec t r on i c da t abases con t a i n i ng v i t a l med i ca l , f i nanc i a l and c r i m i na l r eco r ds - wh i ch a r e o f t en i naccu r a t e - have been accessed by unau t ho r i z ed use r s . As L i nowes ( 1989 ) and F l ahe r t y ( 1990 ) a r gue , t h i s c r ea t es a ma j o r p r ob l em o f how t o p r o t ec t p r i vacy i n " i n f o r ma t i on " soc i e t i es - a p r ob l em wh i ch t he l aw has been s l ow t o t ack l e .

New Psycho l og i ca l Ma l ad i es

The I T r evo l u t i on has b r ough t w i t h i t a numbe r o f psycho l og i ca l p r ob l ems assoc i a t ed w i t h compu t e r - med i a t ed commun i ca t i on . These have i mp l i ca t i ons f o r

Compu t e r s & Soc i e t y , Vo l . 22 , No . 1 - 4 , Oc t obe r 1992

bo t h o r gan i sa t i ona l p r oduc t i v i t y and human r e l a t i onsh i ps . One ma j o r p r ob l em i s t ha t o f " i n f o r ma t i on ove r l oad " o r so - ca l l ed " i n f og l u t " . Th i s a r i ses because modem soc i e t y gene r a t es so much new i n f o r ma t i on t ha t we a r e ove r - whe l med by i t a l l and become unab l e t o d i s t i ngu i sh be t ween wha t i s use f u l and wha t i s no t - so - use f u l . I n essence , i t i s a p r ob l em o f no t be i ng ab l e t o see t he wood f o r t he t r ees . Fo r examp l e , 14 , 000 book pub l i she r s i n t he US r e l ease on t o t he ma r ke t 50 , 000 new t i t l es eve r y yea r . The r e a r e now a t l eas t 40 , 000 sc i en t i f i c j ou r na l s pub l i sh - i ng mo r e t han 1 m i l l i on new pape r s each yea r - t ha t ' s nea r l y 3 , 000 pe r day - and t he sc i en t i f i c l i t e r a t u r e i s doub l i ng eve r y 10 - 15 yea r s . C l ea r l y , i t i s i mposs i b l e f o r any one i nd i v i dua l t o keep up w i t h t he l i t e r a t u r e , excep t f o r ve r y sma l l a r eas . The book and r esea r ch pape r exp l os i on has been ass i s t ed by t he " pub l i sh o r pe r i sh " e t h i c i n academ i a , wh i ch encou r ages t he p r oduc t i on o f med i oc r e , r epe t i t i ve and l a r ge l y use l ess wo r k . I t a l so c r ea t es a se r i ous headache f o r cash - s t r apped l i b r a r i es .

I mp r ovemen t s i n I T enab l e us t o ga t he r , s t o r e and t r ansm i t i n f o r ma t i on i n vas t quan t i t y , bu t no t t o i n t e r p r e t i t . Bu t wha t a r e we go i ng t o do w i t h a l l t ha t i n f o r ma t i on? We have p l en t y o f i n f o r ma t i on t echno l ogy - wha t i s pe r haps needed now i s mo r e i n t e l l i gence t echno l ogy , t o he l p us make sense o f t he g r ow i ng vo l ume o f i n f o r ma t i on s t o r ed i n t he f o r m o f s t a t i s t i ca l da t a , documen t s , messages , and so on . Fo r examp l e , no t many peop l e know t ha t t he i n f amous ho l e i n t he o zone l aye r r ema i ned unde t ec t ed f o r seven yea r s as a r esu l t o f i n f og l u t . The ho l e had i n f ac t been i den t i f i ed by a US wea t he r sa t e l l i t e i n 1979 , bu t nobody r ea l i sed t h i s a t t he t i me because t he i n f o r ma t i on was bu r i ed - a l ong w i t h 3 m i l l i on o t he r un r ead t apes - i n t he a r ch i ves o f t he Na t i ona l Reco r ds Cen t r e i n Wash i ng t on DC . I t was on l y when B r i t i sh sc i en t i s t s we r e ana l ys i ng t he da t a much l a t e r i n 1986 t ha t t he ho l e i n t he o zone was f i r s t " d i scove r ed " .

I n comme r ce and i n gove r nmen t , i t i s a l l eged t ha t i n f l og l u t i s a f f ec t i ng dec i s i on - mak i ng t o such an ex t en t t ha t some o r gan i sa t i ons now su f f e r f r om " ana l ys i s pa r a l ys i s . " Manage r s and adm i n i s t r a t o r s become ove r - l oaded and p r eva r i ca t e by ca l l i ng f o r mo r e s t ud i es ,

r epo r t s , e t c , i ns t ead o f ac t ua l l y mak i ng a dec i s i on . Bu t as someone once sa i d , " wa i t i ng f o r a l l t he f ac t s t o come i n " can be damn f r us t r a t i ng i f t he f ac t s neve r s t op com i ng ! I n t he m i l i t a r y sphe r e , i n f o r ma t i on ove r l oad has caused

p i l o t s t o c r ash f i gh t e r a i r c r a f t . I t has a l so p l ayed a r o l e i n c i v i l i an and m i l i t a r y d i sas t e r s such as Bhopa l and t he down i ng o f an I r an i an a i r bus ove r t he Pe r s i an Gu l f by t he US S V i ncennes . The US m i l i t a r y i s now hav i ng t o spend l a r ge sums o f money on " human f ac t o r s " r esea r ch - t ha t i s , s t udy i ng how humans can adequa t e l y r e l a t e t o com -

Compu t e r s & Soc i e t y , Vo l . 22 , No . 1 - 4 , Oc t obe r 1992

p l ex , h i gh - t ech weapons sys t ems wh i ch ope r a t e a t l i gh t - n i ng - f as t speeds .

The r e i s a l so se r i ous conce r n t ha t med i a i n f og l u t i s hav i ng a damag i ng e f f ec t on soc i e t y - i n pa r t i cu l a r t he younge r gene r a t i on . As Cheseb r o and Bonsa l l ( 1989 ) show , t he t e l ev i s i on se t i s on i n t he ave r age Ame r i can househo l d f o r 7 hou r s and 7 m i nu t es a day . I n add i t i on , r eco r ded v i deo t apes a r e wa t ched f o r a f u r t he r 5 hou r s 8 m i nu t es a week on ave r age ( 1987 f i gu r es ) . Young Ame r i cans can a l so t une i n t o any o f 9 , 300 r ad i o s t a t i ons i n t he US , on one o f t he 5 . 3 r ad i os i n t he ave r age Ame r i can househo l d . I n t hese and o t he r ways , t he t yp i ca l Ame r i can encoun t e r s no l ess t han 1 , 600 adve r t i semen t s each day . By t he age o f 17 , t he ave r age Ame r i can ch i l d wou l d have seen ove r one - t h i r d o f a m i l l i on ads . I t i s l i t t l e wonde r t ha t US academ i cs a r e t a l k i ng abou t Ame r i ca " amus i ng i t se l f t o dea t h " , i t s

co l l ec t i ve m i nd numbed by v i deo - pu l p , 10 - second sound b i t es and 30 - second v i deo c l i ps . A r ecen t r epo r t by t he T i mes M i r r o r g r oup conc l uded t ha t t he cu r r en t unde r - 30s gene r a t i on i n t he US - desp i t e t he bene f i t s o f a h i ghe r s t anda r d o f l i v i ng , be t t e r educa t i on , i n f o r ma t i on t echno l ogy , e t c - " knows l ess , ca r es l ess and r eads news -

pape r s l ess t han any gene r a t i on i n t he pas t f i ve decades " .

A second se t o f p r ob l ems conce r ns t he way some peop l e use t he new compu t e r - based commun i ca t i on t echno l og i es and how t hey r e l a t e t o o t he r peop l e as a r esu l t . Fo r i ns t ance , some manage r s have been d i agnosed " commun i caho l i c " because o f t he i r obsess i ve des i r e t o keep i n t ouch and t o cons t an t l y commun i ca t e us i ng t he i r ca r phones and f ax mach i nes . Some have a l l eged l y become " sp r eadshee t j unk i es " , p l ay i ng end l ess wha t - i r games on t he i r compu t e r s , o r " e - ma i l add i c t s " spend i ng hou r s send i ng and answe r i ng t r i v i a l e . ma i l messages . Bu t does t h i s " hype r - connec t edness " mean t ha t t hey a r e do i ng t he i r j obs any be t t e r and a r e t hey mak i ng w i se r dec i s i ons?

The r e i s some ev i dence t ha t t oo much " i n t ouch " may ac t ua l l y be des t r uc t i ve o f wo r k r e l a t i onsh i ps - subo r d i na t es usua l l y wan t t o be l e f t a l one t o ge t on w i t h t he j ob . Ca l l i ng peop l e a t home f o r p r og r ess r epo r t s can i nc r ease s t r ess by f u r t he r b l u r r i ng t he bounda r i es be t ween wo r k and nonwo r k . And wha t o f t hose ca r phone conve r sa t i ons? Many have l ong suspec t ed t he qua l i t y o f such commun i - ca t i on and now r esea r ch a t Loughbo r ough Un i ve r s i t y i n t he UK has con f i r med t ha t ca r phones can se r i ous l y i mpa i r nego t i a t i ng and dec i s i on - mak i ng sk i l l s . Ra t he r l i ke US p r es i den t Ge r a l d Fo r d ( abou t whom i t was sa i d t ha t he cou l dn ' t t h i nk and chew gum a t t he same t i me ) , i t seems t ha t 4 ou t o f 5 UK execu t i ves canno t t h i nk and d r i ve a t t he same t i me . Fo r ca r phone use r s , bo t h t he i r bus i nesses and t he i r ca r s we r e mo r e l i ke l y t o c r ash .

9

A f u r t he r p r ob l em i s " t echnobabb l e " . Th i s mode r n ma l ady has t wo aspec t s . The f i r s t i s t he i nab i l i t y o f compu t e r pe r sonne l t o exp l a i n i n p l a i n Eng l i sh j us t wha t t hey o r t he i r sys t ems can do - o r t he va l ue i n bus i ness t e r ms o f i nves t i ng mo r e money i n I T equ i pmen t . I n many o r gan i sa t i ons , t op managemen t and I T depa r t men t s s t i l l speak a d i f f e r en t l anguage and t h i s has se r i ous conse - quences f o r o r gan i sa t i ona l e f f i c i ency . Second , Ba r r y ( 1991 ) has desc r i bed t he way i n wh i ch compu t e r t e r m i - no l ogy and t echno j a r gon i s be i ng app l i ed i nd i sc r i m i - na t e l y t o a r eas o f l i f e wh i ch have no t h i ng a t a l l t o do w i t h t echno l ogy . Thus , peop l e t hese days do no t me r e l y conve r se w i t h each o t he r , t hey i n t e r f ace . I t i s no t uncom - mon t o hea r peop l e r e f e r t o t he i r l e i su r e hou r s as down t i me . I n Ca l i f o r n i a ' s S i l i con Va l l ey , ge t t i ng some - t h i ng o f f one ' s ches t i s even known as co r e - dump i ng . Jus t as some peop l e a r e com i ng t o t h i nk o f t hemse l ves as compu t e r s , so t hey a r e a l so beg i nn i ng t o v i ew compu t e r s as " i n t e l l i gen t " o r " t h i nk i ng " peop l e - and ye t t he ana l ogy be t ween conven t i ona l Von Neumann compu t e r s and t he human b r a i n has l ong been d i sc r ed i t ed .

Pu t t i ng Humans Back i n t he P i c t u r e

We have seen t ha t many o f t he p r ed i c t i ons made abou t t he i mpac t o f compu t e r s on soc i e t y have been w i de o f t he ma r k , p r i ma r i l y because t hey have acco r ded t oo g r ea t a r o l e t o t echno l ogy and t oo l i t t l e a r o l e t o human needs and ab i l i t i es . A t t he same t i me , t he r e have been a numbe r o f unan t i c i pa t ed p r ob l ems t h r own up by t he I T r evo l u t i on , mos t o f wh i ch i nvo l ve t he human f ac t o r .

Pe r haps t he t i me has come f o r a ma j o r r eassessmen t o f ou r r e l a t i onsh i p t o t echno l ogy , espec i a l l y t he new i n f o r ma t i on and commun i ca t i on t echno l og i es . A f t e r a l l , haven ' t manu f ac t u r e r s be l a t ed l y d i scove r ed t ha t expen - s i ve h i gh - t ech so l u t i ons a r e no t a l ways app r op r i a t e f o r p r oduc t i on p r ob l ems , t ha t r obo t s a r e mo r e t r oub l esome t han peop l e and t ha t t he mos t " f l ex i b l e manu f ac t u r i ng sys t em " ava i l ab l e t o t hem i s some t h i ng ca l l ed a human ope r a t o r ? D i dn ' t one s t udy o f a gove r nmen t depa r t men t conc l ude t ha t t he on l y da t abases wo r t h access i ng we r e t hose ca r r i ed a r ound i n t he heads o f l ong - se r v i ng emp l oyees? And i s i t no t t he case t ha t t he mos t soph i s t i ca t ed commun i ca t i on t echno l ogy ava i l ab l e t o us i s s t i l l some t h i ng ca l l ed speak i ng t o each o t he r ? One conc l us i on t o be d r awn f r om t h i s i s t ha t t echno l og i ca l advances i n compu t i ng seem t o have ou t paced ou r ab i l i t y t o make use o f t hem .

Compu t e r s have a l so de - human i z ed many soc i a l ac t i v i t i es r ang i ng f r om comme r c i a l t r ansac t i ons t o hosp i t a l ca r e . Human i n t e r ac t i on has t ended t o dec l i ne i n

1 0

t he compu t e r i z ed wo r kp l ace . ATMs have depe r sona l - i z ed bank i ng . Even c r i me has been de - pe r sona l i z ed by t he compu t e r - p r ess i ng a f ew keys t o s i phon - o f f f unds i s no t t he same as bash i ng someone ove r t he head and r unn i ng - o f f w i t h t he cash ! To many , t he r ecen t m i l i t a r y con f l i c t i n t he Gu l f r esemb l ed a g i an t v i deo game and even became known as t he " N i n t endo Wa r " . The r e i s a l so l i t t l e doub t t ha t many compu t e r sc i en t i s t s and o t he r compu t e r en t hus i as t s have l ow needs f o r soc i a l i n t e r ac - t i on and seem t o r e l a t e be t t e r t o t he i r mach i nes t han t hey

do t o o t he r human be i ngs - t he so - ca l l ed " ne r d " syn - d r ome . Fu r t he r , compu t e r s have speeded up t he pace o f l i f e , l eav i ng l i t t l e t i me f o r ca l m r e f l ec t i on and con t emp l a - t i on . Th i s can l ead t o " t echnos t r ess " , f a t i gue , anx i e t y and bu r nou t . Mos t peop l e now know t ha t s l ow i s hea l t h i e r , bu t t he r e i s l i t t l e ev i dence t ha t peop l e a r e s l ow i ng down . Pe r haps we shou l d go back t o bas i cs and f i r s t dec i de wha t we r ea l l y wan t ou t o f l i f e - a decen t home , a sa t i s f y i ng f am i l y l i f e , a r easonab l e s t anda r d o f l i v i ng , a c l ean env i r onmen t , an i n t e r es t i ng j ob w i t h a hea l t hy wo r ks t y l e - and t hen d i r ec t t echno l ogy t owa r d t hese s i mp l e , human ends . I t wou l d be n i ce t o t h i nk t ha t ou r schoo l s and co l l eges a r e he l p i ng make f u t u r e gene r a t i ons mo r e awa r e o f t he cho i ces and t he poss i b i l i t i es , r a t he r t han f a t a l i s t i ca l l y j o i n i ng i n t he unc r i t i ca l , head l ong r ush t owa r d an i l l - de f i ned and i l l - t hough t - ou t h i gh - t ech f u t u r e .

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