Principles of Economics

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R. GLENN HUBBARD

ANTHONY PATRICK O’BRIEN

FIFTH EDITION

Money, Banks, and the Federal Reserve System

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Chapter Outline and

Learning Objectives

14.1	What is Money, and Why Do We Need It?
14.2	How Is Money Measured in the United States Today?
14.3	How Do Banks Create Money?
14.4	The Federal Reserve System
14.5	The Quantity Theory of Money

CHAPTER

Money

Money is one of the most important inventions of mankind.

Economists consider money to be any asset that people are generally willing to accept in exchange for goods and services, or for payment of debts.

Asset: Anything of value owned by a person or a firm.

We will begin by considering what role money serves, and what can be used as money.

Then we will consider modern forms of money and the roles of banks and the government in creating and managing money.

Finally, we will create a model relating prices to the amount of money.

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What Is Money, and Why Do We Need It?

14.1

Define money and discuss the four functions of money.

LEARNING OBJECTIVE

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Barter and the Invention of Money

Suppose you were living before the invention of money.

If you wanted to trade, you would have to barter, trading goods and services directly for other goods and services.

Trades would require a double coincidence of wants.

Eventually, societies started using commodity money—goods used as money that also have value independent of their use as money—like animal skins or precious metals.

The existence of money makes trading much easier and allows specialization, an important step for developing an economy.

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The Functions of Money

Money fulfills four primary functions:

Medium of exchange

Money is acceptable to a wide variety of parties as a form of payment for goods and services.

Unit of account

Money allows a way of measuring value in a standard manner.

Store of value

Money allows people to defer consumption till a later date by storing value. Other assets can do this too, but money does it particularly well because it is liquid, easily exchanged for goods.

Standard of deferred payment

Money facilitates exchanges across time when we anticipate that its value in the future will be predictable.

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What Can Serve as Money?

In order to serve as an acceptable medium of exchange (and hence a potential “money”), a good should have the following characteristics:

The good must be acceptable to most people.

It should be of standardized quality so any two units are alike.

It should be durable so that value is not lost by storage.

It should be valuable relative to its weight, so that it can easily be transported even in large quantities.

It should be divisible because different goods are valued differently.

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Commodity Money

Commodity money has a value independent of its use as money.

Some important historical and modern commodity moneys:

Cowrie shells in Asia (the Classical Chinese character for money/currency, 貝, originated as a pictograph of a cowrie shell)

Precious metals, such as gold or silver

Beaver pelts in pre-colonial America

Cigarettes in prisons and prisoner-of-war camps

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Fiat Money

Beginning in China in the 10th century and spreading throughout the world, paper money was issued by banks and governments. The paper money was exchangeable for some commodity, typically gold, on demand.

In modern economies, paper money is generally issued by a central bank run by the government.

The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. However, money issued by the Federal Reserve is no longer exchangeable for gold; nor is any current world currency. Instead, the Fed issues currency known as fiat money.

Fiat money refers to any money, such as paper currency, that is authorized by a central bank or governmental body, and that does not have to be exchanged by the central bank for gold or some other commodity money.

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Fiat Money—Advantages and Disadvantages

Fiat money has the advantage that governments do not have to be willing to exchange it for gold or some other commodity on demand.

This makes central banks more flexible in creating money.

However it also creates a potential problem: fiat money is only acceptable as long as households and firms have confidence that if they accept paper dollars in exchange for goods and services, the dollars will not lose much value during the time they hold them.

If people stop “believing” in the fiat money, it will cease to be useful.

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Apple Didn’t Want My Cash!

A woman in California went to an Apple store and tried to buy an iPad using $600 in currency.

Apple refused the sale. It wanted to keep track of people buying multiple iPads to resell, so it was only accepting credit or debit cards.

Can Apple do this legally? Yes! Firms are not obliged to accept currency as payment. (Debts are a different story.)

Similarly, many convenience stores and gas stations refuse to take large-denomination bills ($50 or more). Nor can you force a store to accept a bucket of pennies as payment.

Due to bad publicity, Apple ended up giving the woman (who was in a wheelchair!) an iPad for free.

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Making the Connection

Assets that are generally accepted in exchange for goods and services or for payment of debts are specifically called:

wealth.

net worth.

money.

capital.

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The value of money as a medium of exchange is determined primarily by:

The ability of money to be redeemed for gold.

The amount of goods and services that a dollar can buy.

The willingness of people to accept it.

The order of the central bank, stated on each bill, to be accepted as legal tender.

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If prisoners of war use cigarettes as money, then cigarettes are:

token money.

fiduciary money.

fiat money.

commodity money.

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What is fiat money?

Money that has value independent of its use as money.

An asset that has the ability to be easily converted into the medium of exchange.

Money that is authorized by a central bank and that does not have to be exchanged for gold or some other commodity money.

Money issued by financial intermediaries, such as banks and thrift institutions, not the central bank.

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How Is Money Measured in the United States Today?

14.2

Discuss the definitions of the money supply used in the United States today.

LEARNING OBJECTIVE

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U.S. Money Supply, July 2013

How much money is there in America? This is harder to answer than it first appears, because you have to decide what to count as “money”.

M1 is the narrowest definition of the money supply: the sum of currency in circulation, checking account deposits in banks, and holdings of traveler’s checks.

There is a relatively large amount of U.S. currency, because people in other countries sometimes hold and use U.S. dollars instead of their own currency.

Measuring the money supply, July 2013

Figure 14.1

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The Federal Reserve uses two different measures of the money supply:

M1 and M2. Panel (a) shows the assets in M1. Panel (b) shows M2, which

includes the assets in M1, as well as money market mutual fund shares,

small-denomination time deposits, and savings account deposits.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Federal Reserve

Statistical Release, H.6,” July 14, 2013.

U.S. Money Supply, July 2013—continued

M2 is a broader definition of the money supply: it includes M1, plus savings account balances, small-denomination time deposits, balances in money market deposit accounts, and non-institutional money market fund shares.

Measuring the money supply, July 2013

Figure 14.1

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M1 vs. M2

When we want to talk about the money supply, which definition should we use?

Either one might be valid, but we are mostly interested in money’s role as the medium of exchange, so this suggests using M1.

In our discussion of money, we will therefore:

Treat both currency and checking account balances as “money”, but nothing else. (Traveler’s checks are insignificant.)

Realize that banks play an important role in the money supply, since they control what happens to money when it is in a checking account.

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What about Credit and Debit Cards?

Debit cards directly access checking accounts, but the card is not money, the checking account balance is.

Credit cards are a convenient way to obtain a short-term loan from the bank issuing the card. But transactions are not really complete until you pay the loan off—transferring money to pay off the credit card loan.

So credit cards do not represent money.

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Are Bitcoins Money?

When we think of money, we typically think of currency issued by a government.

But currency is only a small part of the money supply.

Over the last decade or so, consumers have come to trust forms of e-money such as PayPal.

Bitcoins are a new form of e-money, owned not by a government or firm, but a product of a decentralized system of linked computers.

Bitcoins can be traded for other currencies on web sites.

Some web sites accept Bitcoins as a form of payment.

Should Bitcoins be included in a measure of the money supply?

For now, they are not; if they grow popular, maybe they should be.

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Making the Connection

The sum of currency in circulation, checking account balances in banks, and holdings of traveler’s checks equals:

M1.

M2.

M3.

None of the above.

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Saving account balances, small-denomination time deposits, and noninstitutional money market fund shares are a component of:

M1.

M2.

M3.

financial instruments that are not included in the money supply.

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In the definition of the money supply, where do credit cards belong?

M1.

M2.

M3.

None of the above.

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How Do Banks Create Money?

14.3

Explain how banks create money.

LEARNING OBJECTIVE

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Banks and Money

Banks play a critical role in the money supply.

Recall that there is more money held in checking accounts than there is actual currency in the economy.

So somehow money is being created by banks.

Further, banks are generally profit-making private firms: some small, but some among the largest corporations in the country.

Their activities are designed to allow themselves to make a profit.

In order to understand the role that banks play, we will first try to understand how banks operate as a business.

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Bank Balance Sheets

On a balance sheet, a firm’s assets are listed on the left, and its liabilities (and stockholders’ equity, or net worth) are listed on the right. The left and right sides must add to the same amount.

Banks use money deposited with them to make loans and buy securities (investments).

Their largest liabilities are their deposit accounts: money they owe to their depositors.

Balance sheet of a typical large bank

Figure 14.2

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The items on a bank’s balance sheet of greatest

economic importance are its reserves,

loans, and deposits. Notice that the difference

between the value of this bank’s total

assets and its total liabilities is equal to its

stockholders’ equity. As a consequence, the

left side of the balance sheet always equals

the right side.

Note: Some entries have been combined to

simplify the balance sheet.

Bank Balance Sheets

Reserves are deposits that a bank keeps as cash in its vault or on deposit with the Federal Reserve.

Notice that the bank does not keep enough deposits on hand to cover all of its deposits. This is how the bank makes a profit: lending out or investing money deposited with it.

Balance sheet of a typical large bank

Figure 14.2

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Required and Excess Reserves

The bank must keep some cash available for its depositors; it does this through a combination of vault cash and deposits with the Federal Reserve.

Banks in the U.S. are required to hold required reserves: reserves that a bank is legally required to hold, based on its checking account deposits.

At least 10% of checking account deposits above some threshold level ($58.8 million in 2011; $71.0 million in 2012, $79.5 million in 2013).

This 10% is known as the required reserve ratio (RR): the minimum fraction of deposits banks are required by law to keep as reserves.

Banks might choose to hold excess reserves: reserves over the legal requirement.

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Money Creation at Bank of America

A T-account is a stripped-down version of a balance sheet, showing only how a transaction changes a bank’s balance sheet.

When you deposit $1,000 in currency at Bank of America, its reserves increase by $1,000 and so do its deposits:

The currency component of the money supply decreases by the $1,000, since that $1,000 is no longer in circulation; but the checking deposits component increases by $1,000. So there is no net change in the money supply—yet.

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T-Accounts

But Bank of America needs to make a profit; so it keeps 10% of the deposit as reserves, and lends out the rest, creating a $900 checking account deposit.

The $900 initially appears in a BoA checking account but will soon be spent; and Bank of America will transfer $900 in currency to the bank at which the $900 check is deposited.

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When Will it End?

Each “round”, the additional checking account deposits get smaller and smaller.

Every round, 10% of the deposits are kept as reserves. This allows us to tell by how much the checking deposits will eventually increase: the $1,000 in currency will become the 10% required reserves for all of the checking deposits, so a total of $10,000 in checking deposits can be created.

Bank	Increase In Checking Account Deposits
Bank of America	$1,000
PNC	+ 900	(= 0.9 × $1,000)
Third Bank	+ 810	(= 0.9 × $900)
Fourth Bank	+ 729	(= 0.9 × $810)
•	+ •
•	+ •
•	+ •
Total change in checking account deposits	= $10,000

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Simple Deposit Multiplier

An alternative way to find out how much money the original $1,000 in currency will create is to add up all of the checking account deposits.

$1,000 + [0.9 × $1,000] + [(0.9 × 0.9) × $1,000] + [(0.9 × 0.9 × 0.9) × $1,000] + …

= $1,000 + [0.9 × $1,000] + [0.92 × $1,000] + [0.93 × $1,000] + …

= $1,000 (1 + 0.9 + 0.92 + 0.93 + …)

The expression in the parentheses can be rewritten as:

So the total increase in deposits is $1,000(10) = $10,000.

The “10” here is the simple deposit multiplier: the ratio of the amount of deposits created by banks to the amount of new reserves.

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General Form for the Simple Deposit Multiplier

In general, we can write the simple deposit multiplier as:

So with a 10% required reserve ratio (RR), the simple deposit multiplier is 10.

With a 20% required reserve ratio, the simple deposit multiplier is 5.

Then:

For example, $100,000 in new deposit, with a 10% required reserve ratio, results in:

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Real-World Deposit Multiplier

With a 10% required reserve ratio, the simple deposit multiplier tells us that a currency deposit will be multiplied 10 times.

But in reality, we do not observe this: currency deposits only end up being multiplied about 2.5 times, during “normal” periods.

Why this difference?

Banks may not lend out as much as we predict, either because they want to keep excess reserves, or they cannot find credit-worthy borrowers.

Consumers keep some currency out of the bank; that currency cannot be used as required reserves.

Note: during the recession of 2007-2009, research suggests that the real-world multiplier fell to close to 1.

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Conclusions about Banks and the Money Supply

In general, we can assume that the real-world deposit multiplier is greater than 1. So we conclude that:

When banks gain reserves, they make new loans, and the money supply expands.

When banks lose reserves, they reduce their loans, and the money supply contracts.

This is enough to establish the important relationship between banks and the money supply.

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A small, but very important, asset on a bank’s balance sheet is:

reserves.

required reserves.

excess reserves.

deposits.

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Which of the following refers to the minimum fraction of deposits banks are required by law to keep as reserves?

The quantity equation.

The simple deposit multiplier.

The required reserve ratio.

The cash to deposit ratio.

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The largest liability for most banks is:

deposits.

loans.

reserves.

all of the above.

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If the reserve requirement is 10% and there is no currency leakage in the loan – deposit cycle, how much is the total increase in checking account deposits caused by an initial deposit of $1,000?

$100

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

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Whenever banks gain reserves and make new loans, the money supply ___________; and whenever banks lose reserves, they reduce their loans and the money supply __________.

expands; expands

expands; contracts

contracts; contracts

contracts; expands

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The Federal Reserve System

14.4

Discuss the three policy tools the Federal Reserve uses to manage the money supply.

LEARNING OBJECTIVE

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Bank Runs and Bank Panics

We have described that, in the United States, banks keep less than 100 percent of deposits as reserves. This is known as a fractional reserve banking system, and is in a system shared by nearly all countries.

But what if depositors lost confidence in a bank, and tried to withdraw their money all at once? This situation is known as a bank run; if many banks simultaneously experience bank runs, a bank panic occurs.

A central bank, like the Federal Reserve, can help to prevent bank runs and panics by acting as a lender of last resort, promising to make loans to banks in order to pay off depositors.

This assurance helps make people confident in being able to eventually receive their money and prevents the panic.

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The Establishment of the Federal Reserve System

In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the United States experienced several bank panics.

In 1914, the Federal Reserve system started. “The Fed” makes loans to banks called discount loans, charging a rate of interest called the discount rate.

During the Great Depression of the 1930s, many banks were hit by bank runs. Afraid of encouraging bad banking practices, the Fed refused to make discount loans to many banks, and more than 5,000 banks failed.

Today, many economists are critical of the Fed’s decisions in the early 1930s, believing they made the Great Depression worse.

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Response to the Great Depression

In 1934, Congress established the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

The FDIC insures deposits in many banks, up to a limit (currently $250,000). This government guarantee has helped to limit bank panics.

Bank runs are still possible; during the recession of 2007-2009, a few banks experienced runs from large depositors whose deposits exceeded the FDIC limit.

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The Federal Reserve System

In 1913, Congress divided the country into 12 Federal Reserve districts, each of which provides services to banks in the district.

But the real power of the Fed lies in Washington, DC, with the Board of Governors.

In 2013, the chair of the Board of Governors was Ben Bernanke.

The Federal Reserve system

Figure 14.3

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The United States is divided into 12 Federal Reserve districts, each of which

has a Federal Reserve Bank. The real power within the Federal Reserve System,

however, lies in Washington, DC, with the Board of Governors, which consists of

7 members appointed by the president. The 12-member Federal Open Market

Committee carries out monetary policy.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

The Federal Reserve System—continued

The Fed is also responsible for managing the money supply.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) conducts America’s monetary policy: the actions the Federal Reserve takes to manage the money supply and interest rates to pursue macroeconomic policy objectives.

The Federal Reserve system

Figure 14.3

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How the Fed Manages the Money Supply

The Fed has three monetary policy tools at its disposal:

Open market operations (most common)

Open market operations refers to the buying and selling of Treasury securities by the Federal Reserve in order to control the money supply.

To increase the money supply, the Fed directs its trading desk in New York to buy U.S. Treasury securities—Treasury “bills”, “notes”, and “bonds”, which are short-term (1 year or less), medium-term (2-10 years), or long-term (30 years) tradable loans to the U.S. Treasury.

To decrease the money supply, the Fed sells its securities.

These open market operations can occur very quickly, and are easily reversible.

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Open Market Operations in Action

The Fed has three monetary policy tools at its disposal:

Open market operations (most common)

Suppose the Fed engages in an open market purchase of $10 million.

The banking system’s T-account reflects an increase in reserves, and a corresponding decrease in assets due to its debt to the Fed.

The banking system’s reserves are liabilities for the Fed, but it gains assets equal to the debt owed to it by the banking system.

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How the Fed Manages the Money Supply—cont.

The Fed has three monetary policy tools at its disposal:

Discount policy

The discount rate is the interest rate paid on money banks borrow from the Fed.

By lowering the discount rate, the Fed encourages banks to borrow (and hence lend out) more money, increasing the money supply. Raising the discount rate has the opposite effect.

Reserve requirements

The Fed can alter the required reserve ratio. A decrease would result in more loans being made, increasing the money supply. An increase would result in fewer loans being made.

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The Rise and Effects of the Shadow Banking System

The banks we have been discussing so far are commercial banks, whose primary role is to accept funds from depositors and make loans to borrowers.

In the last 20 years, two important developments have occurred in the financial system:

Banks have begun to resell many of their loans rather than keep them until they are paid off.

Financial firms other than commercial banks have become sources of credit to businesses.

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Securitization Comes to Banking

A security is a financial asset—such as a stock or a bond—that can be bought and sold in a financial market.

Traditionally, when a bank made a loan like a residential mortgage loan, it would “keep” the loan and collect payments until the loan was paid off.

In the 1970s, secondary markets developed for securitized loans, allowing them to be traded, much like stocks and bonds.

Securitization: The process of transforming loans or other financial assets into securities.

The process of securitization

Figure 14.4

(a) Securitizing a loan

(b) The flow of payments on a securitized loan

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Panel (a) shows how in the securitization process banks grant loans to households

and bundle the loans into securities that are then sold to investors.

Panel (b) shows that banks collect payments on the original loans and, after taking

a fee, send the payments to the investors who bought the securities.

The Shadow Banking System

The 1990s and 2000s brought increasing important of non-bank financial firms, including:

Investment banks: banks that do not typically accept deposits from or make loans to households; they provide investment advice, and engage also engage in creating and trading securities such as mortgage-backed securities.

Money market mutual funds: funds that sell shares to investors and use the money to buy short-term Treasury bills and commercial paper (loans to corporations).

Hedge funds: funds that raise money from wealthy investors and make “sophisticated” (often non-standard) investments.

By raising funds from investors and providing them directly or indirectly to firms and households, these firms have become a “shadow banking system”.

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The Financial Crisis of 2007-2009

What made this “shadow banking system” different from commercial banks?

These firms were less regulated by the government, including not being FDIC-insured.

These firms were highly leveraged, relying more heavily on borrowed money; hence their investments had more risk, both of gaining and losing value.

Beginning in 2007, firms in the shadow banking system were quite vulnerable to runs.

In spring of 2008, investment bank Bear Stearns avoided bankruptcy only by being purchased by JPMorgan Chase.

In fall of 2008, investment bank Lehman Brothers did declare bankruptcy, after most of its clients pulled their money out.

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The Aftermath of Lehman Brothers’ Collapse

After Lehman Brothers failed, a panic started, with many investors withdrawing their funds.

Securitization ground to a halt; with banks unable to resell their loans, they stopped making as many.

The resulting credit crunch significantly worsened the recession.

Beginning in fall 2008, the Fed took vigorous action under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP):

Providing funds to banks in exchange for stock

Offering discount loans to previously ineligible investment banks

Buying commercial paper for the first time since the 1930s

These combined actions appear to have stabilized the financial system, but full financial recovery has still (2013) not occurred.

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In banking terminology we say that a central bank, like the Federal Reserve in the United States, can help stop a bank panic by acting as:

a financial intermediary.

a borrower.

a lender of last resort.

the regulator of the withdrawal limit that banks can disburse each day during the panic run.

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The Federal Reserve System is:

the central bank of the United States.

the institution that regulates all state banks.

an institution that regulates all securities and exchange in financial markets.

an institution also known as the Treasury of the United States.

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The Fed uses three monetary policy tools. Which of the following is not one of those tools?

Open market operations.

Discount policy.

Reserve requirements.

Federal funds rate setting.

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Which of the following people vote on monetary policy at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings?

The seven members of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors.

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Four presidents from Federal Reserve banks other than the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (rotating basis).

All of the above.

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By raising the discount rate, the Fed encourages banks to make _________ loans to households and firms, which will _________ checking account deposits and the money supply.

more; increase

more; decrease

less; increase

less; decrease

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The Quantity Theory of Money

14.5

Explain the quantity theory of money and use it to explain how high rates of inflation occur.

LEARNING OBJECTIVE

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How Does the Money Supply Affect Prices?

Beginning in the 16th century, Spain sent gold and silver from Mexico and Peru back to Europe.

These metals were minted into coins, increasing the money supply.

Prices in Europe rose steadily during those years.

This helped people to make the connection between the amount of money in circulation and the price level.

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Connecting Money and Prices: The Quantity Equation

In the early 20th century, Irving Fisher formalized the relationship between money and prices as the quantity equation:

Money supply real output

velocity of money price level

Velocity of money: the average number of times each dollar in the money supply is used to purchase goods and services included in GDP.

Rewriting this equation by dividing through by M, we obtain:

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Calculating the Velocity of Money

Measuring:

The money supply (M) with M1,

The price level (P) with the GDP deflator, and

The level of real output (Y) with real GDP,

We obtain the following value for velocity (V):

We can always calculate V. But will we always get the same answer? The quantity theory of money asserts that, subject to measurement error, we will:

Quantity theory of money: A theory about the connection between money and prices that assumes that the velocity of money is constant.

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The Quantity Theory Explanation of Inflation

When variables are multiplied together in an equation, we can form the same equation with their growth rates added together.

So the quantity equation:

generates:

Rearranging this to make the inflation rate the subject, and assuming that the velocity of money is constant, we obtain:

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The Inflation Rate According to the Quantity Theory

This equation provides the following predictions:

If the money supply grows faster than real GDP, there will be inflation.

If the money supply grows slower than real GDP, there will be deflation (a decline in the price level).

If the money supply grows at the same rate as real GDP, there will be neither inflation nor deflation: the price level will be stable.

Is velocity truly constant from year to year? The answer is no.

But the quantity theory of money can still provide insight:

In the long run, inflation results from the money supply growing at a faster rate than real GDP.

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How Accurate Are Estimates of Inflation from the QTM?

Real GDP growth has been relatively consistent over time.

So based on the quantity theory of money (QTM), there should be a predictable, positive relationship between the annual rates of inflation and growth rates of the money supply.

There is a positive relationship, but not the consistent relationship implied by a constant velocity of money.

The relationship between money growth and inflation over time and around the world

Figure 14.5a

Inflation and money supply growth in the United States, 1870s-2000s

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Panel (a) shows that, by and large, the rate of inflation in the United States

has been highest during the decades in which the money supply has increased

most rapidly, and the rate of inflation has been lowest during the decades in

which the money supply has increased least rapidly. Panel (b) shows the relationship

between money supply growth and inflation for 56 countries between

1995 and 2011. There is not an exact relationship between money supply

growth and inflation, but countries such as Bulgaria, Turkey, and Ukraine that

had high rates of money supply growth had high inflation rates, and countries

such as the United States and Japan had low rates of money supply growth and

low inflation rates.

Sources: Panel (a): For the 1870s to the 1960s, Milton Friedman and Anna J.

Schwartz, Monetary Trends in the United States and United Kingdom: Their

Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867–1975, Chicago: University of

Chicago Press, 1982, Table 4.8; and for the 1970s to the 2000s, Federal Reserve Board

of Governors and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Panel (b): International Monetary

Fund, International Monetary Statistics.

Accuracy of the QTM—continued

We see a similar story when we compare average rates of inflation and growth rates of the money supply across different countries.

Although the relationship is not entirely predictable, countries with higher growth in the money supply do have higher rates of inflation.

The relationship between money growth and inflation over time and around the world

Figure 14.5b

Inflation and money supply growth in 56 countries, 1995-2011

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High Rates of Inflation

Very high rates of inflation—in excess of 100 percent per year—are known as hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation results when central banks increase the money supply at a rate far in excess of the growth rate of real GDP.

This might happen when governments want to spend much more than they raise through taxes, so they force their central bank to “buy” government bonds.

Recently, hyperinflation has occurred in Zimbabwe; during the 2000s, prices increased by (on average) 7500% per year.

At that rate, a can of soda costing $1 this year would cost $75 next year, and over $5600 the year after that.

Hyperinflation tends to be associated with slow growth, if not severe recession.

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The German Hyperinflation of the Early 1920s

After Germany lost WWI, the Allies forced Germany to pay reparations.

Unable to cover both its regular spending and the reparations, the German government sold bonds to its central bank, the Reichsbank.

The value of the German mark started to fall, and the Allies demanded payment in their own currencies; so Germany was forced to buy their currency with its own. This required massive expansion of the money supply.

From 1922-1923, the German price index rose from 1,440 to 126,160,000,000,000, making the German mark (and any savings held in German currency) worthless.

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Making the Connection

Common Misconceptions to Avoid

Money is not the same as income or wealth, though the latter two concepts are often denominated in the former.

“Assets” and “liabilities” can be confusing, especially as a checking account deposit. An asset for the depositor is a liability for the bank. Remember in this chapter to consider things from the bank’s perspective.

When the Fed “buys” securities, it pays with “electronic money”. It doesn’t actually print money, instead simply increasing the checking account balance of the Treasury, on the promise that the Treasury will “pay the money back” later.

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The theory connecting the money supply and the prices level that assumes the velocity of money is constant is called:

The quantity equation.

The quantity theory of money.

The constant velocity of money theory.

The purchasing power parity theory of money.

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If Irving Fisher was correct about his prediction of velocity, then the quantity equation can be written to solve for inflation as follows:

Inflation rate = Growth rate of the money supply + Growth rate of real output.

Inflation rate = Growth rate of the money supply − Growth rate of real output.

Inflation rate = Growth rate of the money supply − Growth rate of velocity.

Inflation rate = Growth rate of the money supply + Growth rate of velocity.

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Which of the following predictions can be made using the growth rates associated with the quantity equation?

If the money supply grows at a faster rate than real GDP, there will be inflation.

If the money supply grows at a slower rate than real GDP, there will be inflation.

If the money supply grows at the same rate as real GDP, the price level will be fall. There will be deflation.

All of the above.

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