political since help

I have lived in Yamhill or Polk county most of my life which are very similar in many ways. Since I

currently live in Polk County, it will be the focus of this paper. According to the US Census Bureau in

2011 Polk County had a population of 75,993 and covered 745 square miles. Traveling back roads in

Polk County will reveal many attractions from covered bridges, parks, vineyards, wineries, WOU, the

Brunk House, Baskett Slough Wildlife Refuge (which has a great hiking trail), Spirit Mountain Casino, and

beautiful landscapes. Polk County receives approximately 50 inches of rainfall a year which is important

to its agricultural and forest products production. Approximately 28.1% of the population holds a

Bachelor’s degree or higher which is nearly the same as the statewide average (quickfacts.census.gov).

These degrees are used in a vast array of jobs ranging from dairy products, Christmas trees, wheat,

broilers, and tall fescue which are the top five commodities in Polk County (qualityinfo.org).

There is more than one ideological label you could assign to Polk County, but I believe the best one is,

“traditionally conservative.” According to Harry Beadle at Redstate.com, “traditional conservatives

believe they stand on the shoulders of those who have gone before us. They revere God, national

sovereignty, cultural, community, republicanism (with a small “r”), and self-restrained capitalism. They

believe the family is the natural and basic social entity and must be based in marriage between one man

and one woman and committed to bringing new life into the world. They believe in strong free-market

economic policies, strong defense and strong social values.” These are the beliefs the Republican Party

typically espouse; therefore, if you look at whom Polk County Residents have voted for in Presidential

and Gubernatorial elections, it will illustrate a conservative ideology.

President & Governor Elections - Yellow Highlight Shows Winner

Year Dem - Polk Rep - Polk Dem - Oregon Rep - Oregon

President - 1996 Clinton - 10,942 Dole - 11,478 649,641 538,152

President - 2000 Gore - 11,921 Bush - 14,988 720,342 713,577

President - 2004 Kerry - 15,484 Bush - 19,508 943,163 866,831

President - 2008 Obama - 17,536 McCain - 17,714 1,037,291 738,475

President - 2012 Obama – 15,761 Romney – 17,377 910,586 717,409

Governor - 1998 Kitzhaber - 13,173 Sizemore - 6,583 717,061 334,001

Governor - 2002 Kulongoski - 10,956 Mannix - 13,128 618,004 581,785

Governor - 2006 Kulongoski - 12,620 Saxton - 12,643 699,786 589,748

Governor - 2010 Kitzhaber - 12,899 Dudley - 15,966 716,525 694,287

Registered - 2010 14,951 16,604 863,322 664,123

Data obtained from Oregon Secretary of State Elections Division

The table clearly demonstrates a Republican lean in Polk County. Statewide, Democrats comprise

nearly 57% of the registered voters compared to 43% Republicans if you exclude the other parties.

Statewide, Oregon has voted for a Democrat 100% of the time in the last 5 Presidential elections and

last 4 Gubernatorial elections. It has been just the opposite in Polk County. Only 1 time since 1996 has

Polk County elected a Democrat. Nearly 53% of registered voters are Republican compared to 47%

Democrat while excluding the other parties. This reflects the traditional conservative point of view that

Republicans stand for. Also, if you refer to the Comparative Voter Participation from Oregonvotes.org,

you will see with the exception of 2008, the Republican voter turnout has been greater than Democratic

turnout in every election since 1966. Conservatives are more politically active than liberals as this is

rooted in the tradition of, “Traditional Conservatives believe they stand on the shoulders of those who

have gone before us” (Beadle, Harry). If you don’t get out and vote, you are letting down all the people

who have worked hard before you to pass on their traditions.

President Obama in 2008, when excluding the other candidates, garnered 58% of the vote whereas in

2012 he only received 56% of the vote. In Polk County, Obama received 50% of the vote in 2008 and

only 47% in 2012. Both percentages are lower for President Obama with a significant decline if voter

turnout. I could write a whole essay on why, but I will just list a few: 7.9% national unemployment, 16

trillion in national debt, median middle class household incomes have dropped $4,000 over the past four

years, an additional 15 million people on food stamps in the last four years, the number of people on

disability has risen dramatically, numerous states suing the federal government for multiple reasons,

health care costs have continued to rise dramatically over the past four years, intrusive regulations in to

private business, gas prices have doubled in the past four years, house prices have plummeted, I could

keep going but my paper would be too long. In short, the economy is a disaster and GDP is worse now

than it was two years ago. It is the worst recovery coming out of recession the country has ever seen.

Obama won due to the minority vote in this country and the fact half of the country is on public

assistance of some kind. Another fact which is very sad is, “Eighteen percent of Americans say they

would not vote for a well-qualified presidential candidate who happens to be a Mormon” (Gallup, 2012).

Gallup is a well respected polling agency so this has to be close to accurate.

There is also statistical data we can reference to further illustrate Polk Counties traditional conservative

electorate. First, in terms of a percent, 91.1% of people in Polk County are white compared to 88.6%

statewide (quickfacts.census.gov). According to the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies,

approximately 63% of African Americans identify themselves as Democrat compared to only 10%

Republican. According to the National Asian American Political Survey, 36% of Asian Americans identify

themselves as liberal compared to only 22% as conservative. The Pew Research Center reports in the

2004 Political Landscape that while Democrats outnumbered Republicans among Hispanics by more

than two to one in the 1990s, after 9/11 Democrats led by a smaller margin—36% to 22%

(libraryindex.com). As you can see from the data, the more “white” a county is the more Republican the

county is going to be. Since Polk County is 2.5% more white than the state average, it is going to skew

the vote more Republican.

Second, traditional conservatives believe in the family and the value of home ownership. Compared to

the state average, over 5% more people own a home in Polk County and the family size is 5% larger

(quickfacts.census.gov). This represents traditional values and the American dream. Two people, a man

and a woman, get married, buy a house, and start raising kids in a rural, agricultural environment. It

doesn’t get any more traditionally conservative than that which is exactly what Polk County represents.

Third, the median household income is $50,975 in Polk County compared to $49,260 statewide with

only 12.9% of people living below the poverty level compared to 14% statewide (quickfacts.census.gov).

Take a look at the chart below from the Pew Research Center. This chart clearly illustrates higher

Income families are much more likely to be Republican compared to poor families; thus, if the median

income is higher in Polk County than the state average, the trend is going to be Republican which is what

the voting data shows. Therefore, when looking at the three distinct statistical characteristics of: race,

home ownership, and income you can clearly see a traditional conservative/Republican demographic.

This data also points to a more successful county in terms of employment. Compared to its neighboring

Marion County, Polk Counties unemployment rate was 1.5% less and nearly 1% less than the statewide

average in Sep. of 2011 (qualityinfo.org). Polk County also boasts nearly a 3% better percent health

insurance coverage rate compared to the state average (qualityinfo.org). In fact, Polk County ranks 3 rd

best out of Oregon’s 36 counties for health insurance coverage. To summarize, Polk County has more

Republicans than Democrats compare to the state average and votes Republican in Presidential and

Gubernatorial elections. Compared to the state, is has higher income, less unemployment, and more

people with health insurance coverage which are three very important benchmarks of success.

Another way to get a bird’s eye view of the traditional conservative ideology of Polk County is to see

how they buck the voting trend of the rest of the state on ballot measures. Two examples of this are

Ballot Measures 58 and 61 both from the 2008 election. Ballot Measure 58 prohibited teaching public

school students in a language other than English for more than two years. The statewide vote was

756,903 “Yes” to 977,696 “No” votes. In other words, the state did not want to put any limits on how

long a student could be taught in another language. Polk County said, “Yes” with 17,738 votes

compared to 16,753 “No” votes (oregonvotes.org). Traditionalists believe in English as the primary

language. This is not to be mean, harsh, or unfeeling. It is to make everyone’s life easier including the

immigrant as well as the tax payer. If I would to go live in Japan, I would expect myself to learn Japanese

so I could communicate and be a productive member of society. The same holds true of immigrants

coming to the U.S. If you want to assimilate, then you need to learn English and that is what Polk

County stated with their vote.

Ballot Measure 61 created mandatory minimum prison sentences for certain theft, identity theft,

forgery, drug, and burglary crimes. Oregon voted this down by nearly 40,000 votes, but not Polk

County. It passed with a “Yes” vote of 55% to 45% (oregonvotes.org). The conservative people of Polk

County stated clearly they want people to pay for their crime. If you do the crime, then you need to pay

the time. Polk County residents knew this would be costly proposition and most likely would hit them in

the pocket book. It did not matter to them because they put their values ahead of their finances. That

is what traditional conservatives do and that is why Polk County voted conservative since it is a

Republican stronghold.

That final piece of data we will analyze demonstrates Polk County’s traditional conservative ideology in

who voters elect for their legislators. Brian Boquist representing District 12 won his election handily and

so did Jim Thompson who represents District 23. According to the Secretary of State Election Divisions,

both of these candidates far outraised and outspent their opponents. See table below:

2012 Contributions Expenditures

Brian Boquist (Rep) - Won $148,342 $160,146

Annette Frank (Dem) - Lost $5,078 $4,896

Jim Thompson (Rep) - Won $88,485 $79,582

Ross Swartzendruber (Dem) - Lost $3,385 $3,149

Brian received money from many different types of organizations, but the top donor was Loren

E. Parks who is a private citizen. Other substantial donors were Lobbyist PAC’s such as the

Lynx Group, Friends of Ted Ferrioli, and Postmaster/Windowline. Partisan PAC’s such as the

Oregon Republican Party also donated a large sum of money. Much of the money from PAC’s

and other contributions were from the business community such as Stimson Lumber, real estate

agencies, restaurants, etc. Almost all the money Annette Frank received was from Partisan

PAC’s including the Senate Democratic Leadership Fund, Polk County Democratic Central

Committee, and Yamhill County Democratic Committee. There was only one business donation

and that was form Oregon Stationers. A few individual donations were given including the

candidate who donated to herself.

The donations for the race between Thompson and Swartzenruber look very much the same as

the Boquist vs. Frank race except Loren E. Parks did not make a large donation. A lot of money

came from Thompson Public Affairs, Oregon Victory Political Action Committee, and the

Promote Oregon Leadership PAC. Only one individual donation of more than $5,000 was made

by and that was by Doug Riggs. Swartzenruber received money from Future Pac House Builders

(probably knew someone), Oregon Secretary of State, the OEA, Unions, and other Partisan

PACs. In general, all candidates receive money from partisan PACs; however, small businesses

donated a lot more money to Republicans whereas government agencies and unions donated to

the Democratic Party candidates. In both races, the Republican raised much more money and

easily won the election. It is hard to know if the money raised has much to do with the outcome

since correlation is not causation. It could be nobody believe the Democrats had a chance of

winning in the first place so nobody would give them money. People do not want to throw

money at something or someone that has no chance of winning; therefore, generally donations

go with the winning side unless internal polling was very close to begin with.

I opened my analysis with a quote of what Harry Beadle defined as the traditional conservative

ideology being that of a people that are: church going, have family values, believe in self-

restrained capitalism, traditional marriage, free-market economics, strong defense and strong

social values. These are the beliefs the Republican Party generally endorse and this is why Polk

Country consistently elects Republicans. Its traditional conservative values have been handed

down from previous generations and the people of Polk Country and trying to preserve this

tradition through the voting process. This is clearly illustrated in the elections of the past several

decades.

BIBLIOGRAPHY Beadle, Harry. “Traditional Conservative Beliefs.” Redstate.com. 2011. 4 Apr. 2011. http://www.redstate.com/harrybeadle/2011/04/18/traditional-conservative-beliefs/ Oregon Blue Book. 2012. http://bluebook.state.or.us/local/counties/counties.htm (Accessed

November 6 th

2012).

Oregon Labor Market Information System. Worksorce Qualityinfo.org. (2012).

http://www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/Regions?area=000003&page=2 (Accessed November 6 th

,

2012).

Oregon Secretary of State Elections Division. 2012.

http://oregonvotes.org/pages/history/stats/index.html (Accessed November 5 th

2012).

Oregon Secretary of State Elections Division. 2012.

https://secure.sos.state.or.us/orestar/GotoSearchByName.do (Accessed November 7 th

2012).

Pew Research Center. “Independents Take Center Stage in Obama Era.” People-press.org. 2009.

5 May 2009. http://www.people-press.org/2009/05/21/section-1-party-affiliation-and-

composition/

“Political Participation - Hispanic Political Participation.” Libraryindex.com. http://www.libraryindex.com/pages/2936/Political-Participation-HISPANIC-POLITICAL- PARTICIPATION.html (Accessed November 5

th , 2012)

U.S. Department of Commerce. United States Census Bureau.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/41000.html (Accessed November 6th, 2012).

Gallup. “Bias Against a Mormon Presidential Candidate Same as in 1967.” Gallup.com.

2012.http://www.gallup.com/poll/155273/Bias-Against-Mormon-Presidential-Candidate-

1967.aspx