Capital Budgeting
Analysis
| HISTORICAL VIEW – FORECAST – RESIDUAL PERIOD | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ESTIMATE CORPORATE VALUE | |||||||||||||||||||
| THE HERSHEY COMPANY | Historical | Forecast | Residual | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| BALANCE SHEETS | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | PV of Forecast | 5,378,245 | 16.8% | FCF = 20% for first 5 years | |||||||||||
| (in thousands, except share data) | Revenue | 5,671,009 | 6,080,788 | 6,644,252 | 7,146,079 | 7,421,768 | 7,792,856 | 8,221,464 | 8,714,751 | 9,281,210 | 9,930,895 | 10,104,686 | PV of Residual or Terminal Value | 26,569,593 | 83.2% | FCF = 80% for the future | |||||||||
| December 31, | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | COGS | 4,765,711 | 5,025,760 | 5,533,104 | 5,806,404 | 6,032,193 | 6,331,465 | 6,589,259 | 7,071,762 | 7,717,051 | 8,157,936 | 8,199,653 | PV of All Future Cash Flows | 31,947,838 | ||||||
| ASSETS | EBIT | 905,298 | 1,055,028 | 1,111,148 | 1,339,675 | 1,389,575 | 1,461,392 | 1,632,204 | 1,642,989 | 1,564,159 | 1,772,959 | 1,905,033 | Cash and Marketable Securies | 471,985 | |||||||||||
| Current assets: | Taxes | 299,065 | 333,883 | 354,648 | 430,849 | 459,131 | 514,848 | 575,026 | 578,825 | 551,053 | 624,614 | 671,143 | Corporate Value | 32,419,823 | |||||||||||
| Cash and cash equivalents | 884,642 | 693,686 | 728,272 | 1,118,508 | 374,854 | EBT | 808,864 | 962,845 | 1,015,579 | 1,251,319 | 1,306,043 | 946,543 | 1,057,179 | 1,064,164 | 1,013,106 | 1,148,346 | 1,233,890 | Value of Debt | 22,480,000,000 | ||||||
| Short-term investments | 97,131 | Implied Taxes | 334,720 | 365,849 | 388,021 | 461,271 | 488,496 | 514,848 | 575,026 | 578,825 | 551,053 | 624,614 | 671,143 | Value of Equity Holders | 22,447,580,177 | ||||||||||
| Accounts receivable—trade, net | 390,061 | 399,499 | 461,383 | 477,912 | 596,940 | NOPAT | 570,578 | 689,179 | 723,127 | 878,404 | 901,079 | 946,543 | 1,057,179 | 1,064,164 | 1,013,106 | 1,148,346 | 1,233,890 | Value per Equity Share | 101.64 | ||||||
| Inventories | 533,622 | 648,953 | 633,262 | 659,541 | 801,036 | Depreciation | 215,763 | 210,037 | 201,033 | 211,532 | 209,591 | 209,591 | 209,591 | 209,591 | 209,591 | 209,591 | |||||||||
| Deferred income taxes | 55,760 | 136,861 | 122,224 | 52,511 | 100,515 | Fixed + WC Investment | (10,652) | (64,673) | 115,697 | (902,030) | 47,327 | 74,003 | 31,925 | (81,048) | 45,934 | 74,459 | |||||||||
| Prepaid expenses and other | 141,132 | 167,559 | 168,344 | 178,862 | 276,571 | FCF | 894,290 | 868,491 | 1,195,134 | 210,581 | 1,203,462 | 1,340,772 | 1,305,680 | 1,141,649 | 1,403,871 | 1,517,940 | |||||||||
| Total current assets | 2,005,217 | 2,046,558 | 2,113,485 | 2,487,334 | 2,247,047 | PV | 1,135,341 | 1,193,283 | 1,096,274 | 904,293 | 1,049,054 | 26,569,593 | |||||||||||||
| Property, plant and equipment, net | 1,437,702 | 1,559,717 | 1,674,071 | 1,805,345 | 2,151,901 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Goodwill | 524,134 | 516,745 | 588,003 | 576,561 | 792,955 | ROIC > WACC –> GROWTH MODEL | |||||||||||||||||||
| Other intangibles | 123,080 | 111,913 | 214,713 | 195,244 | 294,841 | Value Drivers | Historical | Forecast | Residual | ||||||||||||||||
| Deferred income taxes | 21,387 | 33,439 | 12,448 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |||||||||||||
| Other assets | 161,212 | 138,722 | 152,119 | 293,004 | 142,772 | Sales Growth | 6.57% | 6.74% | 8.48% | 7.02% | 3.71% | 5.00% | 5.50% | 6.00% | 6.50% | 7.00% | 7.00% | 6.50% | |||||||
| Total assets | 4,272,732 | 4,407,094 | 4,754,839 | 5,357,488 | 5,629,516 | Operating Profit Margin | 15.96% | 17.35% | 16.72% | 18.75% | 18.72% | 18.75% | 19.9% | 18.9% | 16.9% | 17.9% | 18.9% | 17.50% | |||||||
| Effective Tax Rate | 36.97% | 34.68% | 34.92% | 34.43% | 35.15% | 35.2% | 35.2% | 35.2% | 35.2% | 35.2% | 35.2% | 35.23% | |||||||||||||
| LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY | Investment Rate Christiane Russ: Christiane Russ: Working Capital supports higher level of sales Fixed Capital - drive incremental sales | 1.5% Christiane Russ: Christiane Russ: dependent on FC + WC Investments which may differ... | 8.9% | -13.2% | 100.1% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 3.0% | -8.0% | 4.0% | 24.36% | ||||||||||||||
| Current liabilities: | Cost of Capital (WACC) | 6.02% | 6.02% | 6.02% | 6.02% | 6.02% | 6.02% | 6.02% | 6.02% | ||||||||||||||||
| Accounts payable | 410,655 | 420,017 | 441,977 | 461,514 | 482,017 | ROIC | 25.26% | 27.46% | 26.89% | 27.66% | estimated | 29.00% | 26.82% | ||||||||||||
| Accrued liabilities | 593,308 | 612,186 | 650,906 | 699,722 | 813,513 | Spread (ROIC – WACC) | 22.98% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Accrued income taxes | 9,402 | 1,899 | 2,329 | 79,911 | 4,616 | Residual Growth | estimatd | 1.75% | |||||||||||||||||
| Short-term debt | 24,088 | 42,080 | 118,164 | 165,961 | 384,696 | Residual Investment Rate | calculated | 6.034% | IR = G/ROIC | ||||||||||||||||
| Current portion of long-term debt | 261,392 | 97,593 | 257,734 | 914 | 250,805 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Total current liabilities | 1,298,845 | 1,173,775 | 1,471,110 | 1,408,022 | 1,935,647 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Long-term debt | 1,541,825 | 1,748,500 | 1,530,967 | 1,795,142 | 1,548,963 | FIXED AND WORKING CAPITAL – ROIC | |||||||||||||||||||
| Other long-term liabilities | 494,461 | 603,876 | 668,732 | 434,068 | 526,003 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Deferred income taxes | 3,335,131 | 35,657 | 104,204 | 99,373 | Change in Invested Assets | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total liabilities | 3,539,551 | 3,706,466 | 3,741,436 | 4,109,986 | Net Operating Working Capital | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Stockholders’ equity: | Accounts Receivable | (9,438) | (61,884) | (16,529) | (119,028) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| The Hershey Company stockholders’ equity | Inventory | (115,331) | 15,691 | (26,279) | (141,495) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Preferred stock, shares issued: none | Prepaid | (26,427) | (785) | (10,518) | (97,709) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Common stock, shares issued: | 299,195 | 299,269 | 299,272 | 299,281 | 299,281 | Accounts Payable | 9,362 | 21,960 | 19,537 | 20,503 | |||||||||||||||
| Class B common stock, shares issued: | 60,706 | 60,632 | 60,629 | 60,620 | 60,620 | Accrual | 18,878 | 38,720 | 48,816 | 113,791 | |||||||||||||||
| Additional paid-in capital | 434,865 | 490,817 | 592,975 | 664,944 | 754,186 | Total Change in WC | (122,956) | 13,702 | 15,027 | (223,938) | |||||||||||||||
| Retained earnings | 4,374,718 | 4,707,892 | 5,027,617 | 5,454,286 | 5,860,784 | Fixed Assets | |||||||||||||||||||
| Treasury—common stock shares, at cost: 138,856,786 in 2014 and 136,007,023 in 2013 | (4,052,101) | (4,258,962) | (4,558,668) | (4,707,730) | (5,161,236) | PPE | (122,015) | (114,354) | (131,274) | (346,556) | |||||||||||||||
| Accumulated other comprehensive loss | (215,067) | (442,331) | (385,076) | (166,567) | (358,573) | Goodwill | 7,389 | (71,258) | 11,442 | (216,394) | |||||||||||||||
| The Hershey Company stockholders’ equity | 902,316 | 849,022 | 1,036,749 | 1,604,834 | 1,455,062 | Other intangibles | 11,167 | (102,800) | 19,469 | (99,597) | |||||||||||||||
| Noncontrolling interests in subsidiaries | 35,285 | 23,626 | 11,624 | 11,218 | 64,468 | Depreciation | 215,763 | 210,037 | 201,033 | 211,532 | |||||||||||||||
| Total stockholders’ equity | 937,601 | 880,943 | 1,048,373 | 1,616,052 | 1,519,530 | Total Change in Fixed Assets | 112,304 | (78,375) | 100,670 | (451,015) | |||||||||||||||
| Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity | 4,272,732 | 4,407,094 | 4,754,839 | 5,357,488 | 5,629,516 | Total Invested Assets | (10,652) | (64,673) | 115,697 | (902,030) | |||||||||||||||
| STATEMENTS OF INCOME | Operating Assets for ROIC | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |||||||||||||||||||
| For the years ended December 31, | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | Net Operating Working Capital | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Net sales | 6,080,788 | 6,644,252 | 7,146,079 | 7,421,768 | Accounts Receivable | 390,061 | 399,499 | 461,383 | 477,912 | 596,940 | |||||||||||||||
| Costs and expenses: | Inventory | 533,622 | 648,953 | 633,262 | 659,541 | 801,036 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Cost of sales | 3,548,896 | 3,784,370 | 3,865,231 | 4,085,602 | Prepaid | 141,132 | 167,559 | 168,344 | 178,862 | 276,571 | |||||||||||||||
| Selling, marketing and administrative | 1,477,750 | 1,703,796 | 1,922,508 | 1,900,970 | Accounts Payable | (410,655) | (420,017) | (441,977) | (461,514) | (482,017) | |||||||||||||||
| Business realignment and impairment charges | (886) | 44,938 | 18,665 | 45,621 | Accrual | (593,308) | (612,186) | (650,906) | (699,722) | (813,513) | |||||||||||||||
| Total costs and expenses | 5,025,760 | 5,533,104 | 5,806,404 | 6,032,193 | Total WC | 60,852 | 183,808 | 170,106 | 155,079 | 379,017 | |||||||||||||||
| EBIT Income before interest and income taxes | 1,055,028 | 1,111,148 | 1,339,675 | 1,389,575 | Fixed Assets | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense, net | 92,183 | 95,569 | 88,356 | 83,532 | PPE | 1,437,702 | 1,559,717 | 1,674,071 | 1,805,345 | 2,151,901 | |||||||||||||||
| EBT Income before income taxes | 962,845 | 1,015,579 | 1,251,319 | 1,306,043 | Goodwill | 524,134 | 516,745 | 588,003 | 576,561 | 792,955 | |||||||||||||||
| Provision for income taxes | 333,883 | 354,648 | 430,849 | 459,131 | Other intangibles | 123,080 | 111,913 | 214,713 | 195,244 | 294,841 | |||||||||||||||
| Net income | 628,962 | 660,931 | 820,470 | 846,912 | Total Fixed Assets | 2,084,916 | 2,188,375 | 2,476,787 | 2,577,150 | 3,239,697 | |||||||||||||||
| Total Operating Assets | 2,145,768 | 2,372,183 | 2,646,893 | 2,732,229 | 3,618,714 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Net income per share - basic: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Common stock | 2.85 | 3.01 | 3.76 | 3.91 | ROIC using Beg. Invested Assets | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | ||||||||||||||||
| Classic B common stock | 2.58 | 2.73 | 3.39 | 3.54 | NOPAT | 570,578 | 689,179 | 723,127 | 878,404 | ||||||||||||||||
| Invested Assets - Beg | 2,145,768 | 2,372,183 | 2,646,893 | 2,732,229 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Net income per share - diluted: | ROIC (Beg Invested Assets) | 27% | 29% | 27% | 32% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Common stock | 2.74 | 2.89 | 3.61 | 3.77 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Class B common stock | 2.56 | 2.71 | 3.37 | 3.52 | ROIC using Avg Invested Assets | ||||||||||||||||||||
| NOPAT | 570,578 | 689,179 | 723,127 | 878,404 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Dividends paid per share: | Invested Assets - Beg | 2,145,768 | 2,372,183 | 2,646,893 | 2,732,229 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Common stock | 1.38 | 1.56 | 1.81 | 2.04 | Invested Assets - End | 2,372,183 | 2,646,893 | 2,732,229 | 3,618,714 | ||||||||||||||||
| Class B common stock | 1.25 | 1.41 | 1.63 | 1.84 | Invested Assets - Avg | 2,258,976 | 2,509,538 | 2,689,561 | 3,175,472 | ||||||||||||||||
| ROIC (Avg Invested Assets) | 25.26% | 27.46% | 26.89% | 27.66% | |||||||||||||||||||||
| CASH FLOWS | WACC - CAPM | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY | Book Value | Market Value | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| For the years ended December 31, | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | Current liabilities: | Debt Christiane Russ: Christiane Russ: what contributes to the debt equipment?... | 2,325,771 | 2,325,771 | 101.79 | price per share | bonds, long-term notes payable, current portion of long term debt, notes payable (the footnotes tell you more about how much debt is short term...) | ||||||||||||||
| Operating Activities | Accounts payable (Verbindlichkeiten) | 482,017 | 8.6% | Equity | 1,519,530 | 22,480,000,000 | 220,846,842 | shares outstanding | common stock, preferred stock, retained earnings≠ shares outstanding = 10K or annual report | ||||||||||||||||
| Net income | 628,962 | 660,931 | 820,470 | 846,912 | Accrued liabilities (Rückstellungen) | 813,513 | 14.5% | Total Debt and Equity | 3,845,301 | 22,482,325,771 | no accounts payable - no working capital | ||||||||||||||
| Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided from operations: | Accrued income taxes (Steuerrückstellungen, aktive Rechnungsabrenzung) | 4,616 | 0.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Depreciation and amortization | 215,763 | 210,037 | 201,033 | 211,532 | Short-term debt (kurzfristige Fremdfinanzierung) Christiane Russ: Christiane Russ:s | 384,696 | 6.8% | Capital structure of debt | 60.48% | 0.010% | |||||||||||||||
| Stock-based compensation expense | 43,468 | 50,482 | 53,967 | 54,068 | Current portion of long-term debt (actuelle langfristige Fremdfinanzierung/Verbindlichkeiten) | 250,805 | 4.5% | Capital structure of equity | 39.52% | 99.99% | |||||||||||||||
| Excess tax benefits from stock-based compensation | (13,997) | (33,876) | (48,396) | (53,497) | Total current liabilities (Gesamtverbindlichkeiten= | 1,935,647 | 34.4% | Total | 100.00% | 100.00% | |||||||||||||||
| Deferred income taxes | 33,611 | 13,785 | 7,457 | 18,796 | Long-term debt (langfristige Fremdfinanzierung) | 1,548,963 | 27.5% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Non-cash business realignment and impairment charges | 34,660 | 38,144 | 39,988 | Other long-term liabilities | 526,003 | 9.3% | |||||||||||||||||||
| Contributions to pension and other benefits plans | (31,671) | (44,208) | (57,213) | (53,110) | Deferred income taxes | 99,373 | 1.8% | DEBT | Moody | S&P | http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/Results.jsp | ||||||||||||||
| Changes in assets and liabilities, net of effects from business acquisitions and divestitures: | Total liabilities | 4,109,986 | 73.0% | Credit rating (Moody AA) 20Y | 3.56% Christiane Russ: Christiane Russ: 20YR |
Christiane Russ: Christiane Russ: what contributes to the debt equipment?... |
Christiane Russ: Christiane Russ:s |
Christiane Russ: Christiane Russ: Working Capital supports higher level of sales Fixed Capital - drive incremental sales |
Christiane Russ: Christiane Russ: dependent on FC + WC Investments which may differ... | 3.56% | AA | A | https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Disclosures-on-Credit-Ratings-of-The-Hershey-Company--PR_238214 | ||||||||||||
| Accounts receivable—trade, net | (9,438) | (50,470) | (16,529) | (67,464) | Stockholders’ equity: | Tax rate | 35.15% | 35.15% | http://www.bondsonline.com/Todays_Market/Composite_Bond_Yields_table.php | ||||||||||||||||
| Inventories | (115,331) | 26,598 | (26,279) | (88,497) | The Hershey Company stockholders’ equity | After tax cost of debt rd(1-T) | 2.31% | 2.31% | |||||||||||||||||
| Accounts payable and accrued liabilities | 7,860 | 69,645 | 102,411 | (13,847) | Preferred stock (Vorzugsaktie) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Other assets and liabilities | (194,948) | 153,759 | 151,484 | (56,660) | Common stock (Stammaktien) | 299,281 | 5.3% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Net cash provided by operating activities | 587,867 | 1,094,827 | 1,188,405 | 838,221 | Class B common stock, shares issued: | 60,620 | 1.1% | Equity | |||||||||||||||||
| Investing Activities | Capital surplus (Kapitalrücklage, Eigenkapitalzuwachs aus sonstigen Quellen) | 754,186 | 13.4% | RF (10YR) | 2.49% | 2.49% | retrieved from http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2015 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Capital additions | (323,961) | (258,727) | (323,551) | (345,947) | Retained earnings (Gewinnrücklagen) | 5,860,784 | 104.1% | β current beta <1 = more stable (1 = price moves with market) | 0.64 | 64.00% | retrieved from http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HSY+Interactive#symbol=HSY;range= | ||||||||||||||
| Capitalized software additions | (23,606) | (19,239) | (27,360) | (24,842) | Treasury—common stock shares, at cost: (eigene Anteile) | (5,161,236) | -91.7% | Expected return | 8.00% | 8.00% | |||||||||||||||
| Proceeds from sales of property, plant and equipment | 312 | 453 | 15,331 | 1,612 | Accumulated other comprehensive loss (akkumulierter umfassender Verlust) | (358,573) | -6.4% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Proceeds from sale of trademark licensing rights | 20,000 | The Hershey Company stockholders’ equity (Eigenkapital) | 1,455,062 | 25.8% | MRP = expected return – risk free rate | 5.51% | 5.51% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Loan to affiliate | (7,000) | (23,000) | (16,000) | Noncontrolling interests in subsidiaries | 64,468 | 1.1% | Re(1-t) | 3.90% | 3.90% | ||||||||||||||||
| Business acquisitions, net of cash and cash equivalents acquired | (5,750) | (172,856) | (396,265) | Total stockholders’ equity | 1,519,530 | 27.0% | CAPM = re = RF + β (MRP) | 6.0164% | 6.0164% | (Captial Asset Pricing Model CAPM = Risk free rate RF + Beta (MRP) + Bond Yield Premium) | |||||||||||||||
| Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity | 5,629,516 | 100.0% | WACC | 3.2829% | 6.0159% | WACC = E/V * Re + D/V *Rd * (1-Tc) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Net cash used in investing activities | (340,005) | (473,369) | (351,580) | (862,573) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Financing Activities | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net increase in short-term debt | 10,834 | 77,698 | 54,351 | 117,515 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Long-term borrowings | 249,126 | 4,025 | 250,595 | 3,051 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Repayment of long-term debt | (256,189) | (99,381) | (250,761) | (1,442) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Proceeds from lease financing agreement | 47,601 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cash dividends paid | (304,083) | (341,206) | (393,801) | (440,414) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Exercise of stock options | 184,411 | 261,597 | 147,255 | 122,306 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Excess tax benefits from stock-based compensation | 13,997 | 33,876 | 48,396 | 53,497 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Payments to noncontrolling interests | (15,791) | WACC = E/V * Re + D/V *Rd * (1-Tc) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Contributions from noncontrolling interests | 2,940 | 2,940 | 2,940 | Re = cost of equity | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Repurchase of common stock | (384,515) | (510,630) | (305,564) | (576,755) | Rd = cost of debt | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Net cash used in financing activities | (438,818) | (586,872) | (446,589) | (719,302) | E = market value of the firm's equity | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (Decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents | (190,956) | 34,586 | 390,236 | (743,654) | D = market value of the firm's debt | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Cash and cash equivalents at January 1 | 884,642 | 693,686 | 728,272 | 1,118,508 | V = E + D | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Cash and cash equivalents at December 31 | 693,686 | 728,272 | 1,118,508 | 374,854 | E/V = percentage of financing that is equity | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Supplemental Disclosure | D/V = percentage of financing that is debt | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Interest paid | 97,892 | 100,269 | 92,551 | 87,801 | Tc = corporate tax rate | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Income taxes paid | 292,315 | 327,230 | 373,902 | 384,318 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| capital sources = common stock, preferred stock, bonds, other long-term debt | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| WACC increases when beta and return on equity increases | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Operating Activities | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | WACC increase notes a decrease in valuation and higher risk | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Net Income BEFORE preferred dividends | 660,931 | 820,470 | 846,912 | Tells you how much interest a company has to pay for every dollar it finances | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Noncash adjustments | Used as the discount rate to estimate PV of future cash flows | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Depreciation and amortizationa | 210,037 | 201,033 | 211,532 | equity = assets - liability | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Working capital adjustments | equity holders: owner of the company, shareholder | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase in accounts receivableb | (61,884) | (16,529) | (119,028) | common share: no guarantee of dividends | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase in inventories | 15,691 | (26,279) | (141,495) | preferred shareholders: get a certain amount of dividends per year | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase in accounts payable | 21,960 | 19,537 | 20,503 | equity sources: net profits that end in retained earnings, issuing of shares | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase in accruals | 38,720 | 48,816 | 113,791 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net cash provided (used) by operating activities | 885,455 | 1,047,048 | 932,215 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investing Activities | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cash used to acquire fixed assetsc | (276,964) | (574,882) | 28,755 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sale of short-term investments | - 0 | - 0 | (97,131) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net cash provided (used) by investing activities | (276,964) | (574,882) | (68,376) | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Financing Activities | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase in notes payable | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase in bonds | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Payment of common and preferred dividends | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net cash provided (used) by financing activities | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Summary | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net change in cash and equivalents | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cash and securities at beginning of the year | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cash and securities at end of the year | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Hershey | Mars Inc | Mondelez International | Nestlé SA | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| TOTAL REVENUE | 7,421,768 | 815,000 | 8,830,000 | 91,610,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| COST | 4,085,602 | 467,000 | 5,684,000 | 47,550,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| GROSS PROFIT | 3,336,166 | 349,000 | 3,146,000 | 44,060,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| EBIT | 1,389,575 | 69,000 | 589,000 | (2,760,000) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| NET INCOME | 846,912 | (51,000) | 500,000 | 14,460,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Company | Net Sales 2014 (US$ millions) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mars Inc (USA) | 18,480 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mondelēz International (USA) | 14,350 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ferrero Group (Luxembourg / Italy) | 10,911 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Nestlé SA (Switzerland) | 10,466 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Meiji Co Ltd (Japan) | 9,818* | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Hershey Foods Corp (USA) | 7,485 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chocoladenfabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (Switzerland) | 4,022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Arcor (Argentina) | 3,500* | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ezaki Glico Co Ltd (Japan) | 3,049* | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| August Storck KG (Germany) | 2,272 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
notes
| WACC | used to find PV of future cash flows – therefore we should not use weights based on past history of the company | |||||||||||||||
| includes | capital provided by investors – interst bearing debt, preferred stock, and common equity | |||||||||||||||
| liabilities and equity from BS | ||||||||||||||||
| percentage of total liabilites and equity comprised by (beinhalted in) each l. or e. account | ||||||||||||||||
| book values (BS) and % of financing from investor-supplied capital | ||||||||||||||||
| current market values and % of financing from investor-supplied capital | ||||||||||||||||
| target capital structure weights (future average capital structure weights based on market values) | ||||||||||||||||
| exclude from capital structure weights | ||||||||||||||||
| accounts payable | ||||||||||||||||
| accruals | ||||||||||||||||
| WACC | used to find PV of future cash flows – therefore we should not use weights based on past history of the company | |||||||||||||||
| includes | capital provided by investors – interst bearing debt, preferred stock, and common equity | |||||||||||||||
| Choose weights for WACC | liabilities and equity from BS | |||||||||||||||
| percentage of total liabilites and equity comprised by (beinhalted in) each l. or e. account | ||||||||||||||||
| book values (BS) and % of financing from investor-supplied capital | ||||||||||||||||
| current market values and % of financing from investor-supplied capital | ||||||||||||||||
| target capital structure weights (future average capital structure weights based on market values) | ||||||||||||||||
| exclude from capital structure weights | ||||||||||||||||
| accounts payable | ||||||||||||||||
| accruals | ||||||||||||||||
| rd(1-T) and rstd(1-T): After-tax Cost of Debt | ||||||||||||||||
| rstd - before-tax cost of short term debt | ||||||||||||||||
| include short-term debt only if permanent source of financing - which is the case here | ||||||||||||||||
| WACC = E/V * Re + D/V *Rd * (1-Tc) | ||||||||||||||||
| Re = cost of equity | ||||||||||||||||
| Rd = cost of debt | ||||||||||||||||
| E = market value of the firm's equity | ||||||||||||||||
| D = market value of the firm's debt | ||||||||||||||||
| V = E + D | ||||||||||||||||
| E/V = percentage of financing that is equity | ||||||||||||||||
| D/V = percentage of financing that is debt | ||||||||||||||||
| Tc = corporate tax rate | ||||||||||||||||
| capital sources = common stock, preferred stock, bonds, other long-term debt | ||||||||||||||||
| WACC increases when beta and return on equity increases | ||||||||||||||||
| WACC increase notes a decrease in valuation and higher risk | ||||||||||||||||
| Tells you how much interest a company has to pay for every dollar it finances | ||||||||||||||||
| Used as the discount rate to estimate PV of future cash flows | ||||||||||||||||
| equity = assets - liability | ||||||||||||||||
| equity holders: owner of the company, shareholder | ||||||||||||||||
| common share: no guarantee of dividends | ||||||||||||||||
| preferred shareholders: get a certain amount of dividends per year | ||||||||||||||||
| equity sources: net profits that end in retained earnings, issuing of shares | ||||||||||||||||
| PROJECT 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Pick an industry and company with less revenue than 1B a year | ||||||||||||||||
| public company | ||||||||||||||||
| annual revenue < 1B | ||||||||||||||||
| potential buyer is a company in that industry | ||||||||||||||||
| today | next time | übernächste week | ||||||||||||||
| project | Cost of Capital Chapter 6 | presentations | ||||||||||||||
| case questions | Section 4.2 | project risk analysis | ||||||||||||||
| valuation (forecast, res. Value) | ||||||||||||||||
| Working Capital | ||||||||||||||||
| Forecast | ||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |||||||||||
| Revenue | ||||||||||||||||
| 1,000 | 1,100 | 1,200 | 1,300 | 1,400 | 1,500 | How much working capital do I need to support this revenue growth? For example inventory | ||||||||||
| Cash 250M | ||||||||||||||||
| Cash of Working Capital - you have to guess - make analysis | ||||||||||||||||
| 10 | 11 | 12 | ||||||||||||||
| 1% | ||||||||||||||||
| Inventory | ||||||||||||||||
| 50 | 55 | |||||||||||||||
| 5.0% | 5% | |||||||||||||||
| When do I invest the 5% ? | ||||||||||||||||
| MC Caset Consulting | ||||||||||||||||
| 3 GROWTH MODELS | ||||||||||||||||
| no growth | g = 0 | in year 6 and beyond | ROIC = WACC | NOPAT - IR = FCF | NOPAT = FCF | NOPAT | NOPAT | |||||||||
| - IR | +DEPR | 50 | IR = Investment Rate | |||||||||||||
| negative growth (harvesting) | g = neg | ROIC = WACC | = FCF | - New PPE | -50 | |||||||||||
| = FCF | ||||||||||||||||
| growth | g = positive | ROIC > WACC | We are here with Hershey | |||||||||||||
| We estimate g and calculate growth | ||||||||||||||||
| WACC = 8% | growth = IR * ROIC | |||||||||||||||
| growth rate is dependend on how much money I invest and how efficient I do it | ||||||||||||||||
| ROIC is to assess if we are making money or not and to find out whether we are creating value for shareholders (WACC) | IR | ROIC | Growth rate - this is what we have to estimate in advance | |||||||||||||
| Therefore the assumption is ROIC = WACC | 0.10 | 0.2 | 2.0% | |||||||||||||
| 0.10 | 0.3 | 3.0% | ||||||||||||||
| 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.8% | ||||||||||||||
| 0.40 | 0.08 | 3.2% | ||||||||||||||
| IR = G/ROIC | we have to calculate the IR!!! | |||||||||||||||
| Forecast | Residual Period or Terminal Value | |||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ...infinity | |||||||||
| PV = FV/(1*i)^N | ||||||||||||||||
| FCF | ||||||||||||||||
| 1,500 | 1,500 infinity | |||||||||||||||
| PV0 = PMT1 in one year / i-g | ||||||||||||||||
| i = WACC | ||||||||||||||||
| no growth | 18,750 | |||||||||||||||
| harvesting | 15,000 | careful with + and - between growth and interest rate | ||||||||||||||
| growth | 30,000 | |||||||||||||||
| WACC | 80% | Debt | current portion of long term debt, notes payable (the footnotes tell you more about how much debt is short term...) | |||||||||||||
| 20% | Equity | ≠ shares outstanding = 10K or annual report | ||||||||||||||
| Assumptions | current stock price | |||||||||||||||
| Current Capital Structure is the target or optimal capital structure | no accounts payable - no working capital | Debt | 3.5 | 14% | ||||||||||||
| Don't need historical capital structure | Equity | 21.5 | 86% | |||||||||||||
| Market value not book value | Total | 25 | ||||||||||||||
| CAPM | ||||||||||||||||
| re = RF + B(MRP) | MRP = E(RM) - RF | |||||||||||||||
| RF = 10 Year treasury bond =2.1% | ||||||||||||||||
| B = Beta = draw them from bloomberg, etc. (or calculate it yourself) | ||||||||||||||||
| when beta is 0.2 it is too low | ||||||||||||||||
| put all betas from google, morningstar, yahoo, into the presentation and say which one you picked | ||||||||||||||||
| MRP = Market risk premium 5% | ||||||||||||||||
| E(RM) = 7.1 | Return of the market | |||||||||||||||
| RF = 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||
| = MRP = 5% | ||||||||||||||||
| Cost of Debt | ||||||||||||||||
| we want to find out what the cost of new debt | ||||||||||||||||
| What is the company's credit rating. Bondsonline.com - or finra | ||||||||||||||||
| http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/Results.jsp | ||||||||||||||||
| WACC = (1 - Tax rate)* rd cost of debt + %D percentage of debt + re%E percentage of Equity | ||||||||||||||||
| T = FCF | ||||||||||||||||
| Where: | ||||||||||||||||
| Re = cost of equity | ||||||||||||||||
| Rd = cost of debt | ||||||||||||||||
| E = market value of the firm's equity | ||||||||||||||||
| D = market value of the firm's debt | ||||||||||||||||
| V = E + D | ||||||||||||||||
| E/V = percentage of financing that is equity | ||||||||||||||||
| D/V = percentage of financing that is debt | ||||||||||||||||
| Tc = corporate tax rate | ||||||||||||||||
| Fixed Capital | 1. Historical Free Cash Flows | |||||||||||||||
| New Equipment | FCF | 3 years | ||||||||||||||
| Acquisitions | annual report of the 10k | |||||||||||||||
| Depreciation | Income Statement | |||||||||||||||
| Change in Fixed Capital | Revenue | 3084370 | ||||||||||||||
| costs | 2730415 | |||||||||||||||
| Working Capital | EBIT | 353955 | ||||||||||||||
| Accounts Receivable | interest expense | find it out the tax rate | ||||||||||||||
| Inventory | Taxes | 138770 | taxes paid / earnings before taxes EBT | provision for income taxes / income before income taxes | ||||||||||||
| Prepaids | 39.21% | |||||||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | NOPAT | 215185 | more stores, you need more equipment, more inventory, look for change in fixed capital and change in working capital | |||||||||||||
| Accruels | ||||||||||||||||
| Change in Working Capital | Change in fixed capital | -79359 | Fixed Capital | – new equipment | statement of cash flows | -140528 | statement of cash flows | |||||||||
| – new acquisitions | purchases of equipment, businesses, | -10924 | purchases of equipment, businesses, | |||||||||||||
| working capital | -101852 | + add back depreciation | depreciation and amortization | 72093 | depreciation and amortization | they spend more money than they have depreciation expense which means that they want to grow | ||||||||||
| -79359 | ||||||||||||||||
| FCF | 33974 | working capital | HR | -69883 | up | use | balance sheet | |||||||||
| Current assets – current liabilities | Inventory prepaid | -67708 | up | use | source of cash or use of cash?? | |||||||||||
| Prepaid | -23189 | up | use | |||||||||||||
| Accounts payable | 44976 | up | source | someone else is paying for business | ||||||||||||
| Accruals | 13952 | up | source | |||||||||||||
| -101852 | ||||||||||||||||
| ROIC | Cash | 245,686 | 593,175 | 347,489 | ||||||||||||
| NOPAT | Which accounts? | Acc rec | 69,883 | 279,835 | 209,952 | |||||||||||
| Invested Assets Beginnin | How much did they change bye? | Inventories | 67,708 | 536,714 | 469,006 | |||||||||||
| Invested Assets End | Was it a use or a source? | Prepaid | 23,190 | 87,177 | 63,987 | |||||||||||
| Invested Assets AVG | Who is paying for the business? |