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6.1 The Basic Issue: Population Growth and Quality of Life

• Six major issues:

– Will developing countries be able to improve levels of living given anticipated population growth?

– How will developing countries deal with the

– How will developing countries deal with the vast increases in their labor forces?

– How will higher population growth rates affect poverty?

6.1 The Basic Issue: Population Growth and Quality of Life

• Six major issues (cont’d):

– Will developing countries be able to extend the coverage and improve the quality of health care and education in the face of rapid population growth?

population growth?

– Is there a relationship between poverty and family size?

– How does affluence in the developed world affect the ability of developing countries to provide for their people?

6.2 Population Growth: Past, Present, and Future

• World population growth through history

Table 6.1 Estimated World Population Growth

Figure 6.1 World Population Growth, 1750- 2050

Figure 6.2 World Population Distribution by Region, 2010 and 2050

6.2 Population Growth: Past, Present, and Future

• Structure of the world’s population

– Geographic region

– Fertility and Mortality Trends

– Rate of population increase

– Birth rates, death rates , Total fertility rates

– Age Structure and dependency burdens

Figure 6.3 The Population Map: World Map with Country Sizes Proportional to Population, 2005

Table 6.3 Fertility Rate for Selected Countries, 1970 and 2009

6.2 Population Growth: Past, Present, and Future

• The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth

– High birth rates cannot be altered overnight

– Age structure of developing country populations

populations

Figure 6.4 Population Pyramids: All Developed and Developing Countries and Case of Ethiopia

6.3 The Demographic Transition

• Stage I: High birthrates and death rates

• Stage II: Continued high birthrates, declining death rates

• Stage III: Falling birthrates and death

• Stage III: Falling birthrates and death rates, eventually stabilizing

Figure 6.5 The Demographic Transition in Western Europe

Figure 6.6 The Demographic Transition in Developing Countries

6.4 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian and Household Models

• The Malthusian Population Trap

– The idea that rising population and diminishing returns to fixed factors result in a low levels of living (population trap)

Figure 6.7 The Malthusian Population Trap

6.4 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian and Household Models (cont’d)

• Criticisms of the Malthusian Model

– Impact of technological progress

– Currently no positive correlation between population growth and levels of per capita income in the data

income in the data

– Microeconomics of family size; individual and not aggregate variables

Figure 6.8 How Technological and Social Progress Allows Nations to Avoid the Population Trap

6.4 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian and Household Models (cont’d)

• The Microeconomic Household Theory of Fertility

• The Demand for Children in Developing Countries

Countries

– First two or three as “consumer goods”

– Additional children as “investment goods”:

– Work on family farm, microenterprise

– Old age security motivation

Figure 6.9 Microeconomic Theory of Fertility: An Illustration

6.4 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian and Household Models (cont’d)

nxtPPYfC xxcd ,...,1),,,,( ==

Where

Demand for Children Equation

Where

Cd is the demand for surviving children

Y is the level of household income

Pc is the “net” price of children

Px is price of all other goods

tx is the tastes for goods relative to children

6.4 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian and Household

Models (cont’d)

nxtPPYfC xxcd ,...,1),,,,( ==

Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect:

Demand for Children Equation

0> ∂

∂

0< ∂

∂

0> ∂

∂

0< ∂

∂

Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect:

6.4 The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The Malthusian and Household Models (cont’d)

• Some empirical evidence

• Implications. Fertility lower if

– Raise women’s education, role, and status

– More female nonagricultural wage employment

– Rise in family income levels

– Reduction in infant mortality

– Development of old-age and social security

– Expanded schooling opportunities

6.5 The Consequences of High Fertility: Some Conflicting Perspectives

• Population growth: “It’s Not a Real Problem”:

– The real problem is not population growth but the following,

• Underdevelopment

• World resource depletion and environmental destruction

• Population Distribution

• Subordination of women

• Overpopulation is a Deliberately Contrived False Issue

• Population Growth is a Desirable Phenomenon

6.5 The Consequences of High Fertility: Some Conflicting Perspectives

• “Population Growth Is a Real Problem” – Extremist arguments – Theoretical arguments – Empirical arguments

• Lower economic growth • Poverty • Adverse impact on education

• Adverse impact on education • Adverse impact on health • Food issues • Impact on the environment • Frictions over international migration

Goals and Objectives: Toward a Consensus

• Despite the conflicting opinions, there is some common ground on the following: – Population is not the primary cause of lower living

levels, but may be one factor

– Population growth is more a consequence than a cause of underdevelopment

cause of underdevelopment

– It’s not numbers but quality of life

– Market failures: potential negative social externalities

– Voluntary decreases in fertility is generally desirable for most developing countries with still-expanding populations

Goals and Objectives: Toward a Consensus

• Some Policy Approaches

– Attend to underlying socioeconomic conditions that impact development

– Family planning programs should provide education and technological means to regulate

education and technological means to regulate fertility

– Developed countries have responsibilities too

6.6 Some Policy Approaches

• What Developing Countries Can Do – Persuasion through education

– Family planning programs

– Address incentives and disincentives for having children through the principal variables influencing the demand

through the principal variables influencing the demand for children

– Coercion is not a good option

– Raise the socioeconomic status of women

– Increase employment opportunities for women (increases opportunity cost of having more children, as in microeconomic household theory)

6.6 Some Policy Approaches

• What the Developed Countries Can Do Generally – Address resources use inequities

– More open migration policies

• How Developed Countries Can Help

• How Developed Countries Can Help Developing Countries with Their Population Programs – Research into technology of fertility control

– Financial assistance for family planning programs

Concepts for Review

• Birth rate

• Death rate

• Demographic transition

• Doubling time

• Family-planning programs

• Fertility rate

• Malthusian population trap

• Microeconomic theory of fertility

• Mortality rate

• Natural increase

• Net international migration

• Fertility rate

• Hidden momentum of population growth

• Life expectancy at birth

• Net international migration

• Population-poverty cycle

• Population pyramid

• Rate of population increase

Concepts for Review (cont’d)

• Reproductive choice

• Total fertility rate (TFR)

• Under-5 mortality rate

• Youth dependency ratio