6 page finance (stock analysis) paper

profilerutus21
last_year_paper.docx

Portfolio I: Underlying Strategy

For portfolio I our team combined both growth and sector rotation to form a multi-filter like stock selection strategy. We picked up candidate sector from all sector indices and then industry inside the targeted sector by deriving Sharpe ratio, and selected final five stocks by evaluating their performance on profitability, growth, and financial health. “Long position only” rule and 15% stop loss sale applied on portfolio D are also applicable on portfolio I. We also decided buy and hold strategy that we will keep all the stock purchased unless it drops over 15% from its buy price.

Portfolio I: Stock Selection

Similar to portfolio D, we selected S&P 500 sector index as the beginning point. There are three steps involved in order to pick up our five favorite equities to invest from the U.S. equity markets. First, we chose our preferred sector by considering both 1-year and 3-year Sharpe ratio, and then picked up the preferred industry by same parameter. On that industry we selected five stocks according to corresponding companies’ pervious performances and potential profitability.

Step One – Sector Selection from S&P 500 sector indices

We derived in total 10 sector indices’ Sharpe ratios, on both 1-year and 3-year period, from their monthly index changes, shown as Exhibit 1, as the primary filter choosing our preferred sector which have the best performance in this parameter. The higher Sharpe ratio the sector index is, the higher risk premium the sector can reach with a given level of risk, and we compared each index’s short term and medium term performance to figure out if we have to make further tradeoffs. Fortunately, the only candidate for the next filter, highlighted in the table, is Consumer Discretionary , which performs the best on both 1-year and 3-year Sharpe ratios.

Step Two – Industry Selection from Consumer Discretionary Sector

As the second filter, we set up two criteria to choose our preferred industry. First we kicked out all industries which have negative YTD index changes to ensure the reminded industry indices have raised from the beginning of 2014. The result shown in Exhibit 2 indicated only five industries in Consumer Discretionary sector are in positive YTD index changes. Similar to the step one we then derived 5-year CAGR Sharpe ratio to search the industry which has the higher value. Under these two filters the final winner industry in this step was Casinos & Gaming , as highlighted.

Final Step – Stocks Selection from Casinos & Gaming Industry

We searched ten listed companies inside the industry available on U.S. Commercial Casino Industry: Facts at Your Fingertips from American Gaming Association as follow. All of them are traded in U.S. equity markets, including Boyd Gaming Crop., Bally Technologies Inc., Caesars Entertainment Crop., Las Vegas Sand Corp., Int’l Game Technology, Isle of Capri Casinos Inc., Multimedia Games Holding Co. Inc., MGM Resorts Int’l, Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. (ADR), and Wynn Resrots Ltd.

For comparing the above companies’ overall performance such as profitability, growth, and financial health, we chose one parameter for each perspective. For profitability, we had ROE; for growth and financial health, YOY Revenue Growth and Financial Leverage respectively. Those parameters were in three-year average between 2010 and 2012, shown in Exhibit 3.

We highlighted five highest values on each 3-year average ROE and YOY Revenue Growth representing which companies performed above cross-company average on profitability and growth. In Financial Leverage the five lowest values were also highlighted indicating the healthier of those companies’ financial state, which shareholders have a higher probability to be nourished for those companies’ lower risk bearing attributes.

After we marked all the preferred values on each parameters, our five final favorite equities for constructing portfolio I were based on the count of attributes of each stocks performed better than the cross-company average. We decided purchase Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) as all three attributes were highlighted, implying the strongest buy signal among options. Multimedia Games Holding Co. Inc. (MGAM), Int’l Game Technology (IGT), and Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. ADR (MPEL) also showed strong buy signal, having two of all attributes highlighted, to fill in our purchase list in portfolio I.

For better understanding of the purchase-supportive information and potential risks of the above stocks, the following are the firm-specific events we have found and keep in mind when holding those stock during the simulation.

Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN)

Wynn is expanding $4 billion project, which is building a 1,700-room hotel and casino that's expected to open in 2016 in Macau. Based on this knowledge, we think as though this stock could provide some benefits it held on to in the long run as the project will bring a new source of cash inflow. However, it also has some potential risk in Macau such as keen competition.

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS)

Las Vegas Sands Corp. intends to make huge investments to set up a casino project in Japan, which is one of the largest untapped gambling markets in the world. Share price of this Las Vegas, Nev.-based casino and hotel operator shot up 4.4% after the announcement. However, gambling is illegal in Japan; Japanese lawmakers are considering the legalization of casino resorts and gambling and are likely to begin parliamentary discussions on the bill soon. Las Vegas is considered to be a strong candidate to tap the Japanese market.

Multimedia Games Holding Co. Inc. (MGAM)

Multimedia Games is excited to announce the rollout of its National TournEvent of Champions, a nationwide slot tournament spanning more than 7 months and including over 80 casinos across the country. It will attract more players after the announcement. And the share price will be increased.

Int’l Game Technology (IGT)

IGT announced that Seven Feathers Casino Resort in Canyonville, Ore recently. It will enhance its connection with players. Therefore, we can believe there is a potential for an increase in stock price.

Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. ADR (MPEL)

Melco Crown is a Hong Kong-based casino company with a 98 Composite Rating. The company has plans to enter Japan and is teaming up with the Philippines-based SM Group's Bell Corp. to develop a casino complex in Manila. We think the share price will be increased after the announcement. However, MPEL will have a potential some risks and competitors in Japan.

Portfolio I: Performance Tracking & Expectation

Since all five equities on portfolio I are in Casinos and Gaming industry, our team applies Dow Jones U.S. Gambling Index as primary benchmark and S&P 500 as secondary benchmark for monitoring this portfolio performance. We expect the period return of the portfolio during the simulation (02/19/2014-03/28/2014) is not lower than period change on Dow Jones U.S. Gambling Index, and excess S&P 500 period change by 2.5% due to actively select stocks that have above average performance, i.e.

E(RI) >= E(HPRD.J. U.S.Gambling Index) >= E(HPRS&P 500)+2.5%

Portfolio I: Start-up

We have finished purchasing target stocks in sector Consumer Discretionary on 02/19/2014. Exhibit 4 shows the summary of the Portfolio I start-up. We approximately equally invested in Multimedia Games Holding Co. Inc, Int'l Game Technology, Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. ADR, Wynn Resorts Ltd, and Las Vegas Sands Corp. each stock takes around $90,000 in our start-up portfolio. We spent CAD 454,712 and the remained cash was CAD 45,288.

Portfolio D: Market Value on 02/28/2014

By the end of February 28, 2014, the market value of our portfolio D was CAD 505,432.62. The market value of each stocks varied from 7% to 10% of the total market value of portfolio D (Exhibit 5.1 & 5.3). In sector level (Exhibit 5.2), Health Care contributed CAD 134,016.89; Consumer Discretionary contributed CAD 125,155.35, Industrial contributed CAD 124,338.64 and Consumer Staples contributed CAD 121,921.74. Exhibit 5.4 shows the descriptive statistics of the market value in both stock and sector level of Portfolio D.

Portfolio D: Returns on 02/28/2014

By the end of February 28, 2014, the weighted return of our portfolio D (cash excluded) was 4.24%. The weighted return of each stocks varied from the lowest -0.65% (AMZN) to the highest 1.36% (PCLN) of the total weighted return of portfolio D (Exhibit 7.1 & 7.3). In sector level (Exhibit 7.2), Health Care contributed 1.85%; Consumer Discretionary contributed 1.33%, Industrial contributed 0.79% and Consumer Staples contributed 0.26%. Exhibit 7.4 shows the descriptive statistics of the weighted return in both stock and sector level of Portfolio D. We did not trade any stocks between 01/21/2014 02/28/2014 in portfolio D as no purchased equity fail over 15% of its original buy price, but received dividend in total CAD 451.62 from HON, UNP, and PM (Exhibit 7.1).

How Portfolio I acted on Portfolio D

Our portfolio consists of portfolio I and D as of February 28, 2014. the weighted total return for portfolio I is 2.68% and it is higher than the weighted total return 2.19% of portfolio D, shown as Exhibit 6. Correspondingly, portfolio I also has higher risk 0.3453% than portfolio D 0.2766%. Our whole portfolio balances these two portfolios and provides a considerable return with acceptable risk level, since portfolio I brought higher return and risk to the original portfolio D.

According to StockTrak record as of February 28, 2014, our over portfolio (D + I + Cash) was ranked 1 out of 32 teams in return 5.23%, 5 in Sharpe ratio 4.78 and 2 in Alpha 5.03% with Beta 0.99, as another evidence to appreciate our stock selection processes and expectations to some extent.

Exhibits

1 – Sector Pickup by Sharpe ratio

S&P 500 Indices

Period Returns

Risk (SD)

Sharpe Ratio

1-year

3-year

1-year

3-year

1-year

3-year

S&P 500

29.60%

46.94%

-

-

-

-

Consumer Discretionary

40.96%

79.37%

41.69

68.71

0.00273

0.00472

Consumer Staples

22.68%

45.80%

17.88

42.57

-0.00387

-0.00027

Energy

22.27%

28.60%

24.79

43.13

-0.00296

-0.00425

Financials

33.21%

37.22%

18.35

34.41

0.00197

-0.00283

Health Care

38.74%

76.08%

45.21

80.34

0.00202

0.00363

Industrials

37.63%

50.26%

32.24

43.58

0.00249

0.00076

Information Technology

26.23%

44.72%

34.53

46.52

-0.00098

-0.00048

Materials

22.73%

21.71%

15.34

20.18

-0.00448

-0.01250

Telecommunication Service

6.49%

20.80%

4.93

13.28

-0.04692

-0.01968

Utilities

8.75%

21.26%

6.38

11.36

-0.03265

-0.02262

Monthly Indices Changes Data Source: Google Finance (Date Accessed: 02/15/2014)

2 – Industry Pickup from Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Discretionary Industries

Index Changes (%)

5-year StdDev

5-year Sharpe Ratio

YTD

5-year CAGR

All

-4.1

29.7

18.1

N/A

Consumer Electronics

11.9

44

48.7

0.29363

Automotive Retail

9.9

32.8

19

0.16316

Casinos & Gaming

6.9

42.7

41.8

0.31100

Cable & Satellite

3.4

32.4

21.2

0.12736

Homebuilding

3.1

26.8

38.2

-0.07592

Home Furnishings

-1.2

22.4

24.6

-0.29675

Tires & Rubber

-1.3

39.6

59.9

0.16528

Advertising

-1.9

27.2

29.8

-0.08389

Distributors

-1.9

23.7

16.8

-0.35714

Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

-2.1

30.6

30.3

0.02970

Specialized Consumer Services

-2.1

9.2

30.7

-0.66775

Education Services

-2.3

-

NA

N/A

Restaurants

-3

20.9

13.1

-0.67176

Internet Retail

-3.2

48.2

27.7

0.66787

Department Stores

-4.2

20.7

27.4

-0.32847

Auto Parts & Equipment

-4.6

33.9

37.4

0.11230

Publishing & Printing

-4.6

33.5

26.3

0.14449

Housewares & Specialties

-4.9

43.1

38.6

0.34715

Movies & Entertainment

-4.9

37.1

21.8

0.33945

Apparel. Accessories & Luxury Goods

-4.9

33.1

26.3

0.12928

Apparel Retail

-5.9

36.8

19.8

0.35859

Motorcycle Manufacturers

-6.2

45.1

49.2

0.31301

Automobile Manufacturers

-6.7

43.6

59

0.23559

Broadcasting

-7.1

59.2

46.9

0.62900

Home Improvement Retail

-7.1

27.5

22.9

-0.09607

Footwear

-7.6

28.5

24.3

-0.04938

General Merchandise Stores

-8.7

16.9

20.6

-0.62136

Household Appliances

-12.9

39.1

41.8

0.22488

Specialty Stores

-13.3

6.8

27.8

-0.82374

Leisure Products

-18.6

22.1

20.9

-0.36364

Home furnishing Retail

-20.2

24.7

28.2

-0.17730

Computer & Electronics Retail

-34.8

0.6

37.6

-0.77394

Source: S&P 500 GICS Sector Scorecard (2/7/14) - S&P Dow Jones Indices

3 – Pickup Five Stocks from Casinos & Gaming

Company

Ticker

ROE (%)

Financial Leverage

YOY Revenue Growth (%)

# of Attribute better than Cross-company Average

2010

2011

2012

3-yr Avg.

2010

2011

2012

3-yr Avg.

2010

2011

2012

3-yr Avg.

Boyd Gaming Corp.

BYD

0.88

-0.32

-120.71

-40.05

4.8

4.89

20.84

10.18

30.46

9.12

6.47

15.35

1

Bally Technologies Inc.

BYI

28.11

26.04

49.46

34.54

1.69

4.36

4.95

3.67

-11.91

-2.57

16.04

0.52

1

Multimedia Games Holding Co. Inc.

MGAM

2.37

4.93

20.8

9.37

1.62

1.56

1.46

1.55

-7.25

8.41

22.15

7.77

2

Isle of Capri Casinos Inc.

ISLE

-1.4

1.65

-52.68

-17.48

6.97

5.61

8.58

7.05

-10.62

0.52

-2.75

-4.28

0

Int'l Game Technology

IGT

16.9

21.19

18.63

18.91

3.25

2.88

3.58

3.24

-6

-1.52

9.9

0.79

2

Caesars Entertainment Corp.

CZR

-234.15

-52.1

-503.36

-263.20

17.51

28.33

0

15.28

-1

0.18

-2.8

-1.21

0

Wynn Resorts Ltd.

WYNN

6.07

28.35

54.87

29.76

2.98

3.3

0

2.09

37.4

25.93

-2.19

20.38

3

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

LVS

6.67

18.39

20.44

15.17

3.54

2.83

3.14

3.17

50.19

37.32

18.28

35.26

3

MGM Resorts Int'l

MGM

-41.85

68.57

-33.82

-2.37

6.32

4.56

6.02

5.63

0.68

30.4

16.71

15.93

1

Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. ADR

MPEL

-0.42

10.76

13.16

7.83

1.94

2.12

2.35

2.14

98.22

45

6.45

49.89

2

Source: Morningstar.ca (Date Accessed: 02/18/2014)

4 - Portfolio I Start-up (02/19/2014)

Company

Ticker

Sector

Buy Price

QTY

CAD

Multimedia Games Holding Co. Inc.

MGAM

Consumer Discretionary

29.86

2,755

90549.38

Int'l Game Technology

IGT

Consumer Discretionary

14.62

5,625

91939.91

Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. ADR

MPEL

Consumer Discretionary

42.91

1,920

89992.01

Wynn Resorts Ltd.

WYNN

Consumer Discretionary

223.64

367

91016.98

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

LVS

Consumer Discretionary

80.47

1,020

91213.72

Remained Cash

45288.00

Total

500000

EMBED MSGraph.Chart.8 \s EMBED MSGraph.Chart.8 \s

5.1 – Market Value of Portfolio D (Stock Level)

Portfolio

Sector

Ticker

Exchange

Company Name

Market Value (CAD) 02/28/2014

D

Consumer Discretionary

PCLN

US

Priceline.com Inc

46166.42

D

Consumer Discretionary

AMZN

US

Amazon.com Inc

35943.21

D

Health Care

BIIB

US

Biogen Idec Inc

50839.09

D

Industrials

UNP

US

Union Pacific Corp

41890.73

D

Health Care

CELG

US

Celgene Corp

40018.27

D

Consumer Staples

KMB

US

Kimberly-Clark Corp

41475.26

D

Industrials

HON

US

Honeywell International Inc

41775.71

D

Consumer Staples

PM

US

Philip Morris International Inc

40750.03

D

Industrials

DHR

US

Danaher Corp

40672.2

D

Health Care

UNH

US

Unitedhealth Group Inc

43159.53

D

Consumer Staples

MO

US

Altria Group Inc

39696.45

D

Consumer Discretionary

FOXA

US

Twenty-First Century Fox Inc

43045.72

D

Total

505432.62

5.2 – Market Value of Portfolio D (Sector Level)

Portfolio

Sector

Stocks Hold

Market Value (CAD)

02/28/2013

D

Consumer Discretionary

3

125155.35

D

Consumer Staples

3

121921.74

D

Industrials

3

124338.64

D

Health Care

3

134016.89

D

Total

12

505432.62

5.3 – Market Value Distributions in Portfolio D (Cash Excluded)

EMBED MSGraph.Chart.8 \s EMBED MSGraph.Chart.8 \s

5.4 – Market Value Descriptive Statistics in Portfolio D

Items

Stock Level

Sector Level

N

12

4

Max

50839.09

134016.89

Min

35943.21

121921.74

Mean

42119.39

126358.1550

Stdev

3504.0090

4578.8421

6 – Weighted Return & Stdev in Portfolios (Cash Excluded)

Items

Portfolio D

Portfolio I

Portfolio D + I

*Formula for Portfolio D + I Items

Weight

51.63%

48.37%

100.00%

Weighted Total Return = Sum of (Weight*Unweighted Total Return)

Stdev (Risk) = Sum of [(# of stocks on Portfolio/# of stocks in all Portfolio)*Stdev]

# of Stock

12

5

17

Unweighted Total Return

4.24%

5.54%

4.87%

Weighted Total Return

2.19%

2.68%

4.87%

Stdev (Risk)

0.2766%

0.3453%

0.3392%

7.1 – Returns of Portfolio D (Stock Level)

Portfolio

Sector

Symbol

Exchange

Company Name

QTY

Buy Amount (CAD)

Market Value (CAD) 02/28/2014

Dividend (CAD)

Return

Weighted Return

D

Consumer Discretionary

PCLN

US

Priceline.com Inc

31

39542

46166.42

0

16.75%

1.36%

D

Consumer Discretionary

AMZN

US

Amazon.com Inc

90

39076.03

35943.21

0

-8.02%

-0.65%

D

Health Care

BIIB

US

Biogen Idec Inc

135

44707.4

50839.09

0

13.72%

1.26%

D

Industrials

UNP

US

Union Pacific Corp

210

40365.55

41890.73

212.14

4.30%

0.36%

D

Health Care

CELG

US

Celgene Corp

225

39983.33

40018.27

0

0.09%

0.01%

D

Consumer Staples

KMB

US

Kimberly-Clark Corp

340

40367.68

41475.26

0

2.74%

0.23%

D

Industrials

HON

US

Honeywell International Inc

400

40209.33

41775.71

199.31

4.39%

0.36%

D

Consumer Staples

PM

US

Philip Morris International Inc

455

40114.58

40750.03

40.07

1.68%

0.14%

D

Industrials

DHR

US

Danaher Corp

480

40344.11

40672.2

0

0.81%

0.07%

D

Health Care

UNH

US

Unitedhealth Group Inc

505

40340.5

43159.53

0

6.99%

0.58%

D

Consumer Staples

MO

US

Altria Group Inc

990

40212.89

39696.45

0

-1.28%

-0.11%

D

Consumer Discretionary

FOXA

US

Twenty-First Century Fox Inc

1160

40059.13

43045.72

0

7.46%

0.62%

D

Total

5021

485322.53

505432.62

451.52

4.24%

7.2 – Returns of Portfolio D (Sector Level)

Portfolio

Sector

Weights

Buy Amount (CAD)

Market Value (CAD) 02/28/2014

Dividend (CAD)

Return

Weighted Return

D

Consumer Discretionary

24.45%

118677.16

125155.35

0

16.19%

1.33%

D

Consumer Staples

24.87%

120695.15

121921.74

40.07

3.14%

0.26%

D

Industrials

24.92%

120918.99

124338.64

411.45

9.51%

0.79%

D

Health Care

25.76%

125031.23

134016.89

0

20.79%

1.85%

D

Total

485322.53

505432.62

451.52

4.24%

7.3 – Weighted Return Distributions in Portfolio D (Cash Excluded)

EMBED MSGraph.Chart.8 \s EMBED MSGraph.Chart.8 \s

7.4 – Weighted Return Descriptive Statistics in Portfolio D

Items

Stock Level

Sector Level

N

12

4

Max

1.36%

1.85%

Min

-0.65%

0.26%

Mean

0.3531%

1.0592%

Stdev

0.5357%

0.5945%

Sector Level (02/28/2014)

Consumer Discretionary

Weighted Return 0.013348 Consumer Staples

Weighted Return 0.002610 Industrials

Weighted Return 0.007894 Health Care

Weighted Return 0.018515

Stock Distribution (02/19/2014)

MGAM

CAD 90549.380000 IGT

CAD 91939.910000 MPEL

CAD 89992.010000 WYNN

CAD 91016.980000 LVS

CAD 91213.720000 Cash

CAD 45288.000000

Sector Distribution (02/19/2014)

Consumer Discretionary

454712.000000 Cash

45288.000000

Stock Level (02/28/2014)

PCLN

46166.420000 AMZN

35943.210000 BIIB

50839.090000 UNP

41890.730000 CELG

40018.270000 KMB

41475.260000 HON

41775.710000 PM

40750.030000 DHR

40672.200000 UNH

43159.530000 MO

39696.450000 FOXA

43045.720000

Sector Level (02/28/2014)

Consumer Discretionary

Market Value (CAD) 125155.350000 Consumer Staples

Market Value (CAD) 121921.740000 Industrials

Market Value (CAD) 124338.640000 Health Care

Market Value (CAD) 134016.890000

Stock Level (02/28/2014)

PCLN

0.013650 AMZN

-0.006455 BIIB

0.012634 UNP

0.003580 CELG

0.000072 KMB

0.002282 HON

0.003638 PM

0.001392 DHR

0.000676 UNH

0.005809 MO

-0.001064 FOXA

0.006154

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