ENGLISH ESSAY
Leila@
guest-lecture_3.pptExcerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series:
Systems Architecting and the Political Process
What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
University of Southern California
Viterbi School of Engineering
Systems Architecture & Engineering (SAE)
Ken Cureton
February 2015
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SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
- 1970s SPACE SHUTTLE ORIGINALLY TO BE BEGINNING OF SPACE INFRASTRUCTURE
- CONCEPT SOON ECLIPSED AS SHUTTLE NOT FUNDED ALONG WITH THE SPACE STATION
- STATION SUPPORT AND RESUPPLY WAS ORIGINAL SHUTTLE JUSTIFICATION
- SPACE STATION NOT FUNDED UNTIL 1980s
- RESULT:
- VERY DIFFERENT SHUTTLE THAN ORIGINALLY ENVISIONED
- DESIGN HEAVILY POLITICALLY DRIVEN
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
ORIGINAL SPACE SHUTTLE
HIGH-
CROSSRANGE
ORBITER
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
ORIGINAL SPACE SHUTTLE
MANNED FLYBACK BOOSTER
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
SPACE
SHUTTLE
OPTIONS
CONSIDERED
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
SPACE SHUTTLE OPTION:
ON A SATURN V (APOLLO) BOOSTER
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
FINAL
SPACE
SHUTTLE
DESIGN
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
POLITICAL PROBLEMS!
- NASA AWARDED SOLID BOOSTER CONTRACTS TO MORTON THIOKOL IN UTAH INSTEAD OF BUILDING/TESTING IN FLORIDA
- NEGATIVE PERFORMANCE IMPACT!
- SOLIDS MUST BE SHIPPED BY RAIL TO FLORIDA, ERGO:
- HAD TO BE SMALLER THAN ORIGINALLY ENVISIONED TO FIT INTO STANDARD RAILWAY CARS
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
LOSS OF
CHALLENGER
JANUARY 1986
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
LAUNCH
DAY
CONDITIONS: COLD!
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
BOOSTER SEGMENT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
BOOSTER
BURN-
THRU
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
- WHAT’S NEXT FOR MANNED SPACE?
- LOSS OF CHALLENGER IN 1987 GREATLY INFLUENCED THE PROGRAM’S FUTURE
- GRADUAL RECOGNITION IN 1990s THAT SHUTTLE DESIGN WAS AGING
- MORE EXPENSIVE TO MAINTAIN AND LAUNCH THAN EVER
- LOSS OF COLUMBIA IN 2003 ACCELERATED THE SEARCH FOR COST SAVINGS
- MANY REPLACEMENT SYSTEMS PROPOSED, FUNDED, AND THEN CANCELLED
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
- MOST RECENTLY CANCELLED PROGRAM:
- CONSTELLATION:
NASA AUTHORIZATION
ACT OF 2010
BROUGHT PROGRAM
TO AN END
ON OCTOBER 11, 2010 - CONSTELLATION PROGRAM REPLACED BY THE U.S. NATIONAL SPACE POLICY
- FINAL SHUTTLE FLIGHT: JULY 8, 2011
- RELIANT ON RUSSIANS AND OTHERS THEREAFTER
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
- RUSSIAN SPACECRAFT ARE NOW THE ONLY MEANS USED BY ASTRONAUTS TRAVELING TO THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION (ISS)
- BAIKONUR (KAZAKHSTAN) IS SOLE LAUNCH SITE USED FOR MANNED MISSIONS TO ISS
- MAY 2014: RUSSIANS ANNOUNCED NO MORE SUPPORT TO ISS AFTER 2020
- NASA NOW WORKING WITH US COMPANIES
- DEVELOPING SPACE TAXIS WITH GOAL OF RESTORING US TRANSPORT TO USS BY 2017
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
RUSSIAN “SOYUZ” MANNED LAUNCH SYSTEM
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
SOYUZ-TM EXTERIOR
CREW CAPACITY: THREE
CREW RETURN MODULE
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
SOYUZ-TM INTERIOR
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
- CHINA: MANNED SPACE
FLIGHT PLAN - FIRST MANNED SPACE
VEHICLE: 10/15/2003 - SPACE LABORATORY: 2015
20 DAYS WITH CREW OF 3 - SPACE STATION: 2018+
- INDIA: MANNED SPACE FLIGHT AFTER 2017
SHENZHOU 5 REENTRY MODULE
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
- COMMERCIAL SPACE INFRASTRUCTURE?
- NASA’S $30M COMMERCIAL CREW PROGRAM
- 2 COMPANIES: BOEING, SIERRA NEVADA CORPORATION SPACE SYSTEMS & SPACEX
- POTENTIALLY TRANSPORT CREW MEMBERS FROM UNITED STATES LAUNCH SITES TO ISS
- APRIL 2014:
SPACEX
COMMERCIAL
DRAGON
RESUPPLY SHIP
DOCKS WITH ISS
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
X-38
(B-52 DROP TO
PARAFOIL
LANDING)
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
NASA X-51A "WAVERIDER“
MAY 27 2010: ~ 200 seconds, up to ~ Mach 5 and ~ 70,000 feet
MAY 3 2013: 240 seconds, Mach 5.1 at 60,000 feet
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SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
- EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY (ESA) ARIANE 5 LAUNCH VEHICLE
- UNMANNED-- BUT COULD BE EXPANDED
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
- RUSSIAN “PROTON” LAUNCH VEHICLE
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
RUSSIAN “PROTON” BOOSTER
BUILT AND LAUNCHED ON
TRANSPORTER!
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
- NEW “ANGARA”
RUSSIAN
MANNED
LAUNCH
VEHICLES - ANNOUNCED
BY VLADIMIR
PUTIN
JULY OF 2013 - SCHEDULED
FOR 2018-2020
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
- CHINESE “LONG MARCH” 2F VEHICLE
- SHENZHOU CAPSULE
LAUCHER - CHINESE “LONG MARCH” 7 VEHICLE IN DEVELOPMENT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
- INDIAN “POLAR SATELLITE LAUNCH VEHICLE” PSLV
- UNMANNED-- BUT PROTOTYPE FOR FUTURE MANNED BOOSTERS
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
The Relationship Between Technology and Politics
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
THE POLITICAL FACTS OF LIFE:
- #1 POLITICS, NOT TECHNOLOGY, CONTROLS WHAT TECHNOLOGY IS ALLOWED TO ACHIEVE
- BUDGET LIMITATIONS (AMOUNT, COLOR-OF-MONEY)
- REGULATORY CONSTRAINTS
- SCHEDULE DEADLINES
- #2 COST RULES
- SOMETIMES HAVE TO OVERSTATE THE BENEFITS AND UNDERSTATE THE COSTS JUST TO GET A PROGRAM STARTED
- PROGRAM FUNDING HAS TO BE RE-WON EACH YEAR
- GOVERNMENT RARELY PROVIDES AN OPTIMAL FUNDING PROFILE (PREFERS REDUCED & LEVEL-LOADED FUNDING OVER A LONGER TIME)
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
THE POLITICAL FACTS OF LIFE: (continued)
- #3 A STRONG, COHERENT CONSTITUENCY IS ESSENTIAL
- EVERY SUCCESSFUL PROGRAM MUST SERVE MULTIPLE AGENDAS
- GOVERNMENT LOVES TO DICTATE MULTIPLE-MISSION SYSTEMS
- #4 TECHNICAL PROBLEMS BECOME POLITICAL PROBLEMS
- #5 THE BEST ENGINEERING SOLUTIONS ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE BEST POLITICAL SOLUTIONS
- THE “ILLOGIC” OF NEGOTIATION, COMPROMISE AND APPEARANCE
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
OTHER (LESS UNIVERSAL) POLITICAL FACTS OF LIFE:
- TIMING IS EVERYTHING
- POLITICAL PROBLEMS BECOME TECHNICAL PROBLEMS (OR OPPORTUNITIES!)
- POLITICS PREFERS IMMEDIATE, NEAR-TERM GRATIFICATION
- POLITICS BELIEVES IN GURUS AND HEROES
- A CATCHY SLOGAN IS ESSENTIAL TO GETTING ATTENTION
- PERCEPTION IS OFTEN MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE TRUTH
- STAFFERS SHAPE DECISION-MAKING
SAE 550 CLASS 05 EXCERPT
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
- PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE
- IN YOUR PRESENTER’S HUMBLE
(AND EVER SO UNBIASED!) OPINION - U.S. WILL (IN THE SHORT TERM):
- CONTINUE IN UNMANNED SPACE, BUT WITH INCREASING FOREIGN COMPETITION
- CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE PRIVATE FUNDING FOR UNMANNED SYSTEMS, WITH SOME COMMERCIALIZATION OF MANNED SPACE-- BUT WITH LITTLE GOVERNMENT FUNDING
- CUT-OFF OF RUSSIAN LAUNCHES AND SPECTER OF COMPETITION FROM ASIAN COUNTRIES WILL STIMULATE RESURGENCE OF NATIONAL PRIDE
- SOMEWHERE AFTER YEAR 2017-TO-2020
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
- PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED)
- FACT OF LIFE #3: A STRONG, COHERENT CONSTITUENCY IS ESSENTIAL
- U.S. TYPICALLY PERFORMES STRONGLY WHEN STIMULATED BY FEAR OF FOREIGN DOMINATION
- OFTEN VILIFIES OTHER COUNTRIES
OUT OF FEAR - INCREASED PUBLIC SUPPORT DUE TO PERCEIVED THREAT OF RUSSIANS AND CHINESE AFTER 2020
- AFTER WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ NO LONGER A HEAVY DRAIN ON ECONOMY
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Excerpt from SAE 550 Lecture Series: What’s Happening with Manned Space Programs?
- PREDICTION FOR THE FUTURE (CONTINUED)
- FACT OF LIFE #5: BEST TECHNICAL SOLUTION OFTEN NOT BEST POLITICAL SOLUTION
- POLITICAL “VALUE” OF MANNED SPACE WILL CHANGE BASED ON TWO FACTORS:
- PERCEIVED THREAT OF FOREIGN DOMINATION
- NEED TO REVIVE HIGH-TECH AEROSPACE JOBS
- NASA FOCUS PRIMARILY ON AERONAUTICS AND UNMANNED SPACE EXPLORATION
- SOME MANNED SPACE FOR SPACE STATION SUPPORT
- DOD (AIR FORCE) TO FOCUS ON MANNED SPACE WITH MILITARY MISSIONS
- DISPOSABLE “SPACE PLANE” ON TOP OF AN EXISTING MILITARY BOOSTER
Technical
Management
Business
Political
People
People
People
People
Performance
Focus Is On:
Schedule
Cost
Politics
Technical
Political
Awareness
Awareness
Level of
Level of
HIGH
HIGH
low
low
Operating domain of the
System Architect
