FOR JUSTQUESTIONANSWER
jhag67hw4_answer_sheet_20151.xlsx
P1
Carpet City | |||||||
Month | Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1,000 yd.) | 3 mos moving average forecast | Weighted 3 mos moving average forecast | Error abs() | Error abs() | ||
1 | 9 | ||||||
2 | 8 | ||||||
3 | 7 | ||||||
4 | 8 | ||||||
5 | 10 | ||||||
6 | 11 | ||||||
7 | 13 | ||||||
8 | 12 | ||||||
9 | |||||||
Please apply weights stated in the problem | Weights: 0.5 (most recent month), 0.3, 0.2 | ||||||
Compute MAD on 3 mos moving average | Note: average over month 4 through 8 only. No data available to month 9 | ||||||
Compute MAD on weighted 3 mos moving average | Note: average over month 4 through 8 only. No data available to month 9 | ||||||
Which is a better forecast method? |
P2
Petroco Service Station | ||||
alpha = | 0.3 | |||
Month | Gas Demand | Exp Forecast | Error | |
October | 800 | ---- | ||
November | 725 | 725.00 | ||
December | 600 | 600.00 | ||
January | 500 | 500.00 | ||
February | 625 | 625.00 | ||
March | 690 | 690.00 | ||
April | 810 | 810.00 | ||
May | 935 | 935.00 | ||
June | 1200 | 1200.00 | ||
July | 1100 | 1100.00 | ||
August | ||||
7985 | SUM | |||
MAPD | ||||
0.00% |
P3
Science and Technology Mutual Fund | |||||||||
alpha = | 0.4 | ||||||||
Month | Fund Price | 3 mos moving average forecast | Weighted 3 mos moving average forecast | Exp Forecast | 3 mos MA error | Weighted 3 mos MA error | Exp. Smoothing error | ||
1 | 57 3/4 | ---- | ---- | ---- | |||||
2 | 54 1/4 | ---- | ---- | 54.25 | |||||
3 | 55 1/8 | ---- | ---- | 55.13 | |||||
4 | 58 1/8 | 58.13 | 58.13 | 58.13 | |||||
5 | 53 3/8 | 53.38 | 53.38 | 53.38 | |||||
6 | 51 1/8 | 51.13 | 51.13 | 51.13 | |||||
7 | 56 1/4 | 56.25 | 56.25 | 56.25 | |||||
8 | 59 5/8 | 59.63 | 59.63 | 59.63 | |||||
9 | 62 1/4 | 62.25 | 62.25 | 62.25 | |||||
10 | 59 1/4 | 59.25 | 59.25 | 59.25 | |||||
11 | 62 3/8 | 62.38 | 62.38 | 62.38 | |||||
12 | 58 | 58.00 | 58.00 | 58.00 | |||||
13 | 58 1/8 | 58.13 | 58.13 | 58.13 | |||||
14 | 62 3/4 | 62.75 | 62.75 | 62.75 | |||||
15 | 64 3/4 | 64.75 | 64.75 | 64.75 | |||||
16 | 66 1/8 | 66.13 | 66.13 | 66.13 | |||||
17 | 68 3/4 | 68.75 | 68.75 | 68.75 | |||||
18 | 65 1/2 | 65.50 | 65.50 | 65.50 | |||||
19 | 69 7/8 | 69.88 | 69.88 | 69.88 | |||||
20 | 70 1/4 | 70.25 | 70.25 | 70.25 | |||||
21 | |||||||||
Please apply weights stated in the problem | Weight 0.6 (most recent), 0.3, 0.1 | ||||||||
Compute MAD on 3 mos moving average | |||||||||
Compute MAD on weighted 3 mos moving average | |||||||||
Compute MAD on exponentially smoothed forecast | |||||||||
Which is a better forecast method? |
P4
Carpet City Regression | |||||
X - axis | Y - axis | ||||
Monthly Construction Permits | Monthly Carpet Sales (1,000 yd.) | ||||
17 | 9 | ||||
25 | 14 | ||||
8 | 10 | ||||
7 | 12 | ||||
14 | 15 | ||||
7 | 9 | If 30 construction permits issued | |||
45 | 24 | What is expected carpet sales (1000 yds)? | |||
19 | 21 | ||||
28 | 20 | ||||
28 | 29 | Correlation Coefficient | |||
Place regression output here |
P5 and P6
Gilley's Ice Cream Parlor | |||||
x | y | ||||
Ave. Temp | Ice cream Sold | ||||
Week | (degrees) | (gal.) | |||
1 | 68 | 80 | |||
2 | 70 | 115 | |||
3 | 73 | 91 | |||
4 | 79 | 87 | If average 85 deg weekly daytime temperature | ||
5 | 77 | 110 | What is expected ice cream sold? | ||
6 | 82 | 128 | |||
7 | 85 | 164 | Correlation Coefficient | ||
8 | 90 | 178 | |||
9 | 85 | 144 | Coefficient of Determination | ||
10 | 92 | 179 | |||
11 | 90 | 144 | Comments: | ||
12 | 95 | 197 | |||
13 | 80 | 144 | |||
14 | 75 | 123 | |||
Place regression output here | |||||
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
A
B
C
Carpet City
Month
Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1,000
yd.)
1
9
2
8
3
7
4
8
5
10