FOR JUSTQUESTIONANSWER

P1

Carpet City
	Month	Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1,000 yd.)	3 mos moving average forecast	Weighted 3 mos moving average forecast		Error abs()	Error abs()
	1	9
	2	8
	3	7
	4	8
	5	10
	6	11
	7	13
	8	12
	9
				Please apply weights stated in the problem	Weights: 0.5 (most recent month), 0.3, 0.2
	Compute MAD on 3 mos moving average			Note: average over month 4 through 8 only. No data available to month 9
	Compute MAD on weighted 3 mos moving average			Note: average over month 4 through 8 only. No data available to month 9
	Which is a better forecast method?

P2

Petroco Service Station
alpha =	0.3
Month	Gas Demand	Exp Forecast	Error
October	800	----
November	725		725.00
December	600		600.00
January	500		500.00
February	625		625.00
March	690		690.00
April	810		810.00
May	935		935.00
June	1200		1200.00
July	1100		1100.00
August
	7985			SUM
MAPD
		0.00%

P3

Science and Technology Mutual Fund
					alpha =	0.4
	Month	Fund Price	3 mos moving average forecast	Weighted 3 mos moving average forecast	Exp Forecast		3 mos MA error	Weighted 3 mos MA error	Exp. Smoothing error
	1	57 3/4	----	----	----
	2	54 1/4	----	----					54.25
	3	55 1/8	----	----					55.13
	4	58 1/8					58.13	58.13	58.13
	5	53 3/8					53.38	53.38	53.38
	6	51 1/8					51.13	51.13	51.13
	7	56 1/4					56.25	56.25	56.25
	8	59 5/8					59.63	59.63	59.63
	9	62 1/4					62.25	62.25	62.25
	10	59 1/4					59.25	59.25	59.25
	11	62 3/8					62.38	62.38	62.38
	12	58					58.00	58.00	58.00
	13	58 1/8					58.13	58.13	58.13
	14	62 3/4					62.75	62.75	62.75
	15	64 3/4					64.75	64.75	64.75
	16	66 1/8					66.13	66.13	66.13
	17	68 3/4					68.75	68.75	68.75
	18	65 1/2					65.50	65.50	65.50
	19	69 7/8					69.88	69.88	69.88
	20	70 1/4					70.25	70.25	70.25
	21
				Please apply weights stated in the problem	Weight 0.6 (most recent), 0.3, 0.1
	Compute MAD on 3 mos moving average
	Compute MAD on weighted 3 mos moving average
	Compute MAD on exponentially smoothed forecast
	Which is a better forecast method?

P4

Carpet City Regression
	X - axis	Y - axis
	Monthly Construction Permits	Monthly Carpet Sales (1,000 yd.)
	17	9
	25	14
	8	10
	7	12
	14	15
	7	9			If 30 construction permits issued
	45	24			What is expected carpet sales (1000 yds)?
	19	21
	28	20
	28	29			Correlation Coefficient
	Place regression output here

P5 and P6

Gilley's Ice Cream Parlor
		x	y
		Ave. Temp	Ice cream Sold
	Week	(degrees)	(gal.)
	1	68	80
	2	70	115
	3	73	91
	4	79	87		If average 85 deg weekly daytime temperature
	5	77	110		What is expected ice cream sold?
	6	82	128
	7	85	164		Correlation Coefficient
	8	90	178
	9	85	144		Coefficient of Determination
	10	92	179
	11	90	144		Comments:
	12	95	197
	13	80	144
	14	75	123
	Place regression output here

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

A

B

C

Carpet City

Month

Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1,000

yd.)

1

9

2

8

3

7

4

8

5

10