Budgeting and Forcasting-Business Proposal wk 1-wk7
jaylee1
quantitative_forecasting_models_w1.xlsxMoving Average
| Moving Average Model | |||||||||
| Formula for Moving Average: | |||||||||
| Moving Average = Forecast | |||||||||
| Month | Date | Actual Sales | 3 Day Moving Average | Actual Numerical Deviation = Actual -Forecast | Absolute Deviation D|A-F| | 6 Day Moving Average | Absolute Deviation D|A-F| | ||
| Jan | 1 | 46 | |||||||
| 2 | 54 | ||||||||
| 3 | 53 | ||||||||
| 4 | 46 | 51.00 | (5.00) | 5.00 | |||||
| 5 | 58 | 51.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | |||||
| 6 | 49 | 52.33 | (3.33) | 3.33 | |||||
| 7 | 54 | 51.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 51.00 | 3.00 | |||
| 8 | 53.67 | 52.33 | |||||||
| SD|A-F|= | 1.67 | 18.33 | 3.00 | ||||||
| n= | 4 | 4 | 1 | ||||||
| MAD= | 0.42 | 4.58 | 3.00 | ||||||
Weighted Moving Average
| Weighted Moving Average Model | ||||||||||
| Formula for weighted moving average: | ||||||||||
| Month | Date | Actual Sales | W1=0.1, W2=0.3, W3=0.6 | D|A-F| | W1=0.25, W2=0.35, W3=0.40 | D|A-F| | W1=4 W2=5 W3=8 | D|A-F| | ||
| 0 | ||||||||||
| Jan | 1 | 46 | ||||||||
| 2 | 54 | |||||||||
| 3 | 53 | |||||||||
| 4 | 46 | 52.60 | 6.60 | 51.60 | 5.60 | 51.65 | 5.65 | |||
| 5 | 58 | 48.90 | 9.10 | 50.45 | 7.55 | 49.94 | 8.06 | |||
| 6 | 49 | 53.90 | 4.90 | 52.55 | 3.55 | 53.29 | 4.29 | |||
| 7 | 54 | 51.40 | 2.60 | 51.40 | 2.60 | 50.94 | 3.06 | |||
| 8 | 52.90 | 53.25 | 53.47 | |||||||
| SD|A-F| = | 23.20 | 19.30 | 21.06 | |||||||
| n = | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | |||||||
| MAD = | 5.80 | 4.83 | 5.26 | |||||||
Exponential Smoothing
| Exponential Smoothing Model | ||||||||||
| Formulas for Exponential Smoothing Model: | ||||||||||
| With a = | 0.1 | With a = | 0.2 | With a = | 0.25 | |||||
| Month | Date | Actual Sales (A) | Forecast for a=0.1 | Forecast for a=0.2 | Forecast for a=0.25 | |||||
| D|A-F| | D|A-F| | D|A-F| | ||||||||
| 0 | ||||||||||
| Jan | 1 | 46 | ||||||||
| 2 | 54 | 46.00 | 46.00 | 46.00 | ||||||
| 3 | 53 | 46.80 | 6.20 | 47.60 | 5.40 | 48.00 | 5.00 | |||
| 4 | 46 | 47.42 | 1.42 | 48.68 | 2.68 | 49.25 | 3.25 | |||
| 5 | 58 | 47.28 | 10.72 | 48.14 | 9.86 | 48.44 | 9.56 | |||
| 6 | 49 | 48.35 | 0.65 | 50.12 | 1.12 | 50.83 | 1.83 | |||
| 7 | 54 | 48.42 | 5.58 | 49.89 | 4.11 | 50.37 | 3.63 | |||
| 8 | 48.97 | 50.71 | 51.28 | |||||||
| SD|A-F| = | 24.58 | 23.16 | 23.27 | |||||||
| n = | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | |||||||
| MAD = | 4.92 | 4.63 | 4.65 | |||||||
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