maths

L1022: Assessed Coursework Project

Project 1

The Relationship between Criminal Activity, Deterrence, Unemployment and Education in England and Wales - 1991

There has been considerable interest in the relationship between criminal activity, deterrence variables and social deprivation. Burglary represents one of the main acquisitive crimes in England and Wales. The data reported below are drawn from forty-two police force areas in England and Wales for the year 1991. A persistent theme in economics is that individuals respond to incentives: the purpose of this project is to explore the extent to which judicial penalties (sentencing, probability of a conviction) deter criminal activity and whether crime is related to social problems.

1. Describe the data, using summary statistics and graphs, as appropriate.

2. Calculate the pair-wise correlation coefficients between BR and each of the other variables and test their statistical significance.

3. Estimate a regression model of the form (excluding the ED variable):

BRi =α + β1CRi + β2SENi +β3HOi + β4URi + ui

where the i subscript corresponds to Police Force Area i, Interpret the coefficients estimates and comment on their economic and statistical significance.

4. Interpret the R2 statistic and test if its statistically significant.

5. Predict the burglary rate when the police solve 30% of crimes [Hint: assume the other independent variables are at their mean].

6. Re-estimate the model including the ED variable and comment on any changes to the results and goodness of fit:

BRi =α + β1CRi + β2SENi +β3HOi + β4URi + β5EDi + ui

Explain how the omission of ED in part 3. may have biased the results. (Note: it is sufficient to discuss the changes, without explicitly showing the testing procedure).

7. What conclusions do you draw from your analysis?

Copy and paste the data into Excel and do all the analysis in Excel.

BR	CR	SEN	UR	HO	ED
23.73	15	9.6	9.1	12.34	14.84
24.09	12	11.7	9.1	12.07	13.56
17.76	29	12.2	7.4	11.93	16.46
17.12	29	10.5	8.7	8.95	15.49
30.99	37	11	16.8	10.97	9.57
22.11	32	8.8	7.2	9.12	12.99
19.69	22	14.1	9.8	9.08	11.85
16.97	20	9.4	11.2	12.72	12.23
14.01	33	10.3	9.6	13.84	13.95
22.45	25	12.5	13.3	10.72	10.36
16.13	26	13.3	9.9	12.71	11.3
23.39	21	12.8	7.3	11.85	15.76
38.15	33	9.6	12.1	12.27	11.42
18.77	20	11.3	9.2	12.61	14.19
11.01	24	14.2	7.4	13.39	17.56
37.68	26	11.3	12.5	10.71	9.73
17.24	16	12	9.9	12.03	12.12
17.78	39	9.9	9.6	10.97	12.04
24.16	25	11.2	8.2	9.91	12.45
15.17	35	10.1	9.3	8.37	10.42
23.32	41	12.2	19.6	11.79	10.4
28.30	11	13.1	10.5	26.1	17.51
20.19	29	11.4	8.4	9.72	11.02
20.69	28	12.5	7.8	9.22	11.93
46.14	29	10.9	16	15.46	10.66
17.11	20	11.3	6.3	10.28	15.54
30.10	22	10.2	11.5	10.42	11.3
27.28	27	11	15.4	10.88	9.91
22.46	33	10.6	9.4	8.36	10.76
11.54	20	10.8	6.7	9.73	12.48
11.04	15	13.7	4.9	12.7	20.66
18.51	12	12.7	9.4	16.56	15.04
17.27	14	11.6	6.6	12.33	18.71
21.00	22	11.9	7.7	9.63	14.59
13.29	33	12.5	8.4	9.98	13.64
32.11	28	10.9	13.4	12.54	9.39
38.05	22	11.2	11	15.5	11.63
14.19	25	9.4	7.6	10.2	13.69
10.00	42	9.5	9.6	7.81	12.69
16.73	40	10	12.3	8.89	10.92
15.58	27	13.2	10	9.11	12.09
27.84	21	12.2	13.7	8.95	12

Variables:

BR = Burglary rate per 1000 of the Police Force Area Population.

CR = Percentage of crimes solved by in the Police Force Area.

SEN = Average sentence length (in months) dispensed by the judiciary in the

Police Force Area.

UR = Male unemployment rate in the Police Force Area.

HO = Percentage of households with three rooms or less in the Police Force

Area.

ED = Percentage of the population in the Police Force Area with higher education.