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POL 1013 Q: Introduction to American Government

Fall 2014

Survey Report Assignment

Public opinion polls play an important role in contemporary American politics For this

assignment, you will be learning about the margin of error in public opinion polls and some

basic knowledge in how to conduct professional surveys. You will be conducting your own

survey and authoring a report on the survey results. The assignment consists of five parts, and a

grading rubric is included at the end of the document for your reference:

Part I: Collect responses to a survey question

Part II: Organize the collected data in a spreadsheet

Part III: Graph your survey results

Part IV: Calculate the margin of error and 95% confidence interval

Part V: Summarize the results of your survey, margin of error calculations, and confidence

interval calculations, interpret the statistical significance of your results based on the margin of

error and confidence intervals calculations, and critique the survey methodology

Once you have completed the assignment, submit it on BlackBoard Learn in the appropriate

place under the Assignments link (it will be submitted via SafeAssign) as a single document.

Part V should come first, followed by Part III and Part II. This assignment is due by 11:59 PM

on the date listed on your Blackboard.

Introduction to the Margin of Error in Public Opinion Polls

Here is a brief overview of the margin of error. Let’s suppose a poll was conducted in which

1,000 UTSA students were asked if they approved of the job President Barack Obama was

doing. About 51 percent of the student respondents said they approved of Obama’s job

performance. Could we conclude that a majority of the UTSA student approved of Obama?

No, not yet. First we need to consider the margin of error, which we can understand to be natural

errors in statistical measurement that involves sampling from a larger population. The margin of

error for this sample, based on 95% confidence interval, is 3.05. What does this means?

Essentially, it means that if we were to conduct this survey 100 times, 95 of those times the

percentage approving of Obama would fall within the range of 47.95 percent and 54.05 percent.

We get 47.95 by subtracting 3.05 from 51 percent, and 54.05 by adding 3.05 to 51. Because the

low end of our confidence interval, 47.95, is below 50 percent, we cannot conclude that a

majority of the student body approves of Obama’s job performance. That is, the difference

between the percentage that approves of Obama and does not approve of Obama is not

statistically significant.

So, how did we get the margin of error? We can take our sample size (1,000) and the size of the

population we are sampling from (the UTSA student body population is currently about 29,000),

and enter into an online calculator, such as this one here:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html. Try it and see if you get 3.05.

Now, if we were to decrease the sample size from 1,000 to 500, what happens? The margin of

error increases to 4.34. Our poll becomes less accurate. This tells us that if we want a poll to be

accurate, we need a big sample. The general rule of thumb is 1,000 respondents.

Additionally, we want the sample we select to be representative of the population we are trying

to learn about. When it is not, our survey may not be accurate—we call this selection bias. For

example, if our survey consisted of only female, there may be a gender bias. We know not all

UTSA students are female, and males may approve of Obama more or less than females.

Other concerns include the wording of the survey question—does it push individuals to answer

in a certain way? Does it confuse respondents? Bad wording can bias a poll. So can how we ask

the question—if we do it face-to-face, do respondents feel pressured to give an answer they

believe will please the interviewer (you!)? We call this social desirability bias.

Assignment, Part I.

The poll discussed above was imaginary. You are going to collect actual responses from the

UTSA student body, which will involve using some basic survey methodology. You will be

required to ask at least 16 UTSA students about whether they approve of President Obama’s job

performance, using the following prompt:

“I am conducting a survey for my Introduction to American Government class. I would like to

ask you about your opinion of President Obama’s job performance. Your answer will be kept

confidential. First, can you tell me if you have already been asked this question by another

student and provided him or her with an answer?”

If a student has already answered the questions with another student, do not record his or her

answer. Instead, reply: “This concludes the survey. Thank you for your time,” and move on to

another student. If the student has not been asked this question previously, then ask him or her

the following:

“Do you currently approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Please

answer ‘yes’ or ‘no’.”

After he or she answers the question, ask them for his or her name. End the survey with the

following: “This concludes the survey. Thank you for your time.” Make sure you record both the

names and answers or your respondents! Note: graders will be able to determine if student names

and answers are invented; fabricating responses will be considered academic dishonesty.

Assignment, Part II.

After collecting answers in the field, it is important to organize the data. You will put the names

of your respondents and their answers in a spreadsheet, as well as the date you surveyed them on.

Their names should go in the first column. In the second column, give them a score of “0” if they

did not approve of Obama’s handling of his job, and a score of “1” if they did approve of

Obama’s job as president. Tabulate how many individuals approve of Obama’s job performance,

and provide the percentage of those who approve. A blank spreadsheet that you can use is

provided at the end of this prompt. Your table should be labeled and included after your paper

(Assignment Part V). See below for an example:

Table 1: Survey Respondents Names and Obama Job Approval

Respondent’s Name Date Surveyed Obama Job Approval

(0=No, 1=Yes)

Johnny Carson October 1, 2014 0

Jack Parr October 1, 2014 1

Jimmy Kimmel October 2, 2014 1

Jay Leno October 3, 2014 0

David Letterman October 6, 3014 1

Jimmy Fallon October 8, 2014 0

Conan O’Brien October 9, 2014 1

Approval Percentage 57.1%

Margin of Error 37.0

95% Confidence Interval 20.1%-94.1%

Assignment, Part III.

Now we want to visualize the data and put the data into a bar chart or pie chart. You can generate

your chart using Microsoft Excel. The figure should have a title and data labels. Below is an

example of a pie chart:

Note: If you are not familiar with spreadsheet programs, here are several short tutorials on

preparation of charts or graphs in Excel: http://spreadsheets.about.com/od/excelcharts/. If you do

not have access to a charting or graphing program, there are several online, free chart and graph

programs available if you do a search for “How to make charts or graphs.”

Assignment, Part IV.

Next, we want to figure out the margin of error. You can do this by using the online margin of

error calculator located here: http://americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html.

The population we are sampling from is the UTSA student body, which currently numbers

around 29,000. Enter this in “Population Size”. The sample size you enter will be the number of

respondents you collected answers from (remember, the minimum is 16). Once you have entered

this information, click on “Calculate Error.” This is your margin of error, and should be entered

below “Approval Percentage” in your spreadsheet. Next, using the approval percentage and the

margin of error, calculate the 95% confidence interval and included in in the Table 1

spreadsheet. See Table 1 above in the Part II instructions for an example.

Assignment, Part V.

57% Approve 43% Do not

Approve

Approval Ratings of President Obama's Job

Performance

Finally, report the results of your survey. Do a majority approve of Obama’s job performance?

You should report the number of respondents you polled, the percentage of respondents who

approved of Barack Obama’s job as president, and the dates you conducted the survey (e.g.,

“from November 1st to November 5th”).

Next, summarize the results of your margin of error calculation and 95% confidence interval.

Within what range can we expect the percentage approving of Obama to fall 95 out of 100

times?

After this, interpret the statistical significance of your results based on the margin of error and

the 95% percent confidence interval you calculated. Is the difference between the percentage

approving and not approving of Obama’s job performance statistically significant? If it is

significant, what can you conclude about UTSA students’ perceptions of Obama’s job as

president? If the difference is not significant, what could you have done differently to have

generated a statistically significant result? (Hint: think about the sample size).

Finally, what are the weaknesses of the poll you conducted? Consider the question wording, the

sample that was surveyed, and the manner in which the survey was conducted (a description of

these errors can be found in the Introduction to Public Opinion Polling section above; also

reference pages 228-241 in your textbook). If you were to conduct this poll again, what changes

would you make in order to produce more accurate results?

The Writing Center is a great resource that all students are encouraged to utilize

(https://utsa.edu/twc/). Reports are required to meet the following format requirements:

 Font size should be 12 point font

 Font style should be Times New Roman

 The report must be double spaced

 The report should have 1” margins all around

 You must use complete sentences and present coherent thoughts.

Table 1: Survey Respondents Names and Obama Job Approval

Respondent’s Name Date Surveyed Obama Job Approval (0=No,

1=Yes)

Grading Rubric

Collect responses to a survey question (12 Points)

 12 Points: Collected responses from at least 16 UTSA students

 8 Points: Collected responses from 10 to 15 UTSA students

 4 Points: Collected responses from 3 to 10 UTSA students

 0 Points: Collected responses from less than 3 UTSA students

Organize the collected data in a spreadsheet (12 Points)

 12 Points: All of the components of Part II are complete. (1) Names of all respondents are

recorded, (2) dates respondents were surveyed are recorded, (3) survey responses are

entered as “0” and “1”, and (4) the approval percentage is calculated

 8 Points: One of the components of Part II is incomplete or missing

 4 Points: Two of the components of Part II are incomplete or missing

 0 Points: Three or more components of Part II are incomplete or missing

Graph survey results (14 Points)

 14 Points: Three components completed successfully. (1) Approval percentage is

accurately and properly presented in a bar graph or pie chart, (2) the chart/graph has a

title, and (3) data labels are included

 9 Points: Two components completed successfully: Bar/pie chart is included, but

approval percentage is not accurately/properly displayed, chart/graph title is missing, or

data labels are missing

 4 Points: Bar/pie chart is included, but two or more of the elements listed above are not

included

 0 Points: Bar/pie chart not included

Calculate the margin of error and 95% confidence interval (12 Points)

 12 Points: Margin of error and 95% confidence interval are included in Table 1 and are

accurately calculated

 5 Points: Margin of error and 95% confidence interval are included in Table 1, but were

not accurately calculated

 0 Points: Margin of error and/or 95% confidence interval are not included in Table 1

Summarize the results of the survey, margin of error calculations, and confidence interval

calculations (16 Points)

 16 Points: Successfully reports the number of respondents surveyed, the percentage of

respondents who approve of Obama’s job performance, the dates of the survey the

margin of error and 95% confidence interval.

 10 Points: Reports the margin of error and 95% confidence interval, but does not report

all of the survey result components (sample size, support percentage, polling date)

 4 Points: Reports survey results but does not report the margin of error and 95%

confidence interval

 0 Points: Does not report survey results or the margin of error and 95% confidence

interval

Interpret the statistical significance of the results (14 Points)

 14 Points: Correctly interprets the statistical significance of the results and makes correct

conclusion

 4 Points: Incorrectly interprets the results

 0 Points: Interpretation of the results is missing

Critique and improve the survey methodology (10 Points)

 10 Points: Accurately identifies a weakness in survey methodology and offers valid recommendations for improving survey

 5 Points: Either accurately identifies a weakness in survey methodology or offers valid

recommendations for improving survey, but not both

 0 Points: Does not accurately identify a weakness in survey methodology or offer a valid

recommendation for improving survey

Reports are written with proper grammar, style, organization, and formatting (10 Points)

 10 Points: Meets all requirements

 6 Points: 1-2 errors

 2 Points: 3-4 errors

 0 Points: 5 or more errors