Economics

profilebatsch
busi_620_qct_3.docx

Running head: QCT #3

QCT #3 7

Demand Forecasting and Production Theory

Liberty University - Online

BUSI 620_D04

Dr. Neslihan Duda

November 9, 2014

Demand Forecasting and Production Theory

Salvatore’s Chapter 6

Discussion Questions

1. (a) What is forecasting? Why is it so important in the management of business firms and other enterprises? (b) What are the different types of forecasting? (c) How can the firm determine the most suitable forecasting method to use?

7. (a) Which type of smoothing technique is generally better? (b) How do we determine which of two smoothing techniques is better? (c) How can we forecast the values of a time series that contains a secular trend as well as strong seasonal and random variations?

15. Explain why it is still useful to pursue forecasting even though it is often off the mark by wide margins.

Problems

7. The following table presents data on three leading indicators for a three- month period. Construct the diffusion index from month 2 to 3. (In this problem, we have three leading indicators. The diffusion index from month 1 to 2 is 66.7 (=2/3) because two indicators move up and move down (see p. 236)

Month

Leading Indicator A

Leading Indicator B

Leading Indicator C

1

100

200

30

2

110

230

27

3

120

240

33

Appendix Problems

1. The following table reports the Consumer Price Index for the Los Angeles area on a monthly basis from January 1998 to December 2000 (base year = 1982 – 1984). Use Excel to forecast the index for all of 2000 using a three-and six-month average. Which provides a better forecast for 2000 using the data provided?

3. Forecast the data for 2000 again in Problem 1 with exponential smoothing with w = 0.3 and w = 0.7. Is this a better forecast than the moving average? (Compare RMSEs for moving average and exponential forecasts to answer “Is this a better forecast than the moving average” (see also p.234) Use 166.63, the mean of all 36 months, as the initial forecast for Jan. 1998 for both exponential smoothing forecast.

Salvatore’s Chapter 7

Discussion Questions

3. (a) How is the law of diminishing returns reflected in the shape of the total product curve? (b) What is the relationship between diminishing returns and the stages of production?

11. Minimum wage legislation requires most firms to pay workers no less than the legislated minimum wage per hour. Using marginal productivity theory, explain how a change in the minimum wage affects the employment of unskilled labor.

12. It is always better to hire a more qualified and productive worker than a less qualified and productive one regardless of cost. True or false? Explain.

Problems

4. Ms. Smith, the owner and manager of the Clear Duplicating Service located near a major university, is contemplating keeping her shop open after 4 p. m. and until midnight. In order to do so, she would have to hire additional workers. She estimates that the additional workers would generate the following total output (where each unit of output refers to 100 pages duplicated). If the price of each unit of output is $ 10 and each worker hired must be paid $ 40 per day, how many workers should Ms. Smith hire? (Ms. Smith should hire workers as long as their marginal revenue product (MRP) exceeds their marginal resource cost (MRC)and until MRP=MRC.

MRP=MR x MP = P x MP = $10 x MP (use information in the problem to calculate MP)

MRC=wages=$40

Workers hired

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Total product

0

12

22

30

36

40

42

12. Suppose that the production function for a commodity is given by

Q = 10 √LK

where Q is the quantity of output, L is the quantity of labor, and K is the quantity of capital. (a) Indicate whether this production function exhibits constant, increasing, or decreasing returns to scale. (b) Does the production function exhibit diminishing returns? If so, when does the law of diminishing returns begin to operate? Could we ever get negative returns? (P12(a) Calculate Q when L=1 and K=, and L=2 and K=2. Then compare and answer the question about the returns to scale). (P12(b) Given K=1, show the change in Q if L changes from 1 to 2 and 2 to 3. Answer the question about diminishing returns)

13. Indicate whether each of the following statements is true or false and give the reason. (a) A firm should stop expanding output after reaching diminishing returns and (b) if large and small firms operate in the same industry, we must have constant returns to scale. (P13(a) See figure (7-4) on page 276)

References

Sheet1

Salvatore's Chapter 6 Appendix Problem #3 (p.257)
Time CPI Forecast(w=0.3) (A-F)^2 Forecast(w=0.7) (A-F)^2
35796 161.0 166.63 166.63
35827 161.1 164.94
35855 161.4 163.79
35886 161.8 163.07
35916 162.3 162.69
35947 162.2 162.57
35977 162.1 162.46
36008 162.6 162.35
36039 162.6 162.43
36069 163.2 162.48
36100 163.4 162.70
36130 163.5 162.91
36161 164.2 163.08
36192 164.6 163.42
36220 165 163.77
36251 166.6 164.14
36281 166.2 164.88
36312 165.4 165.28
36342 165.8 165.31
36373 166.3 165.46
36404 167.2 165.71
36434 167.2 166.16
36465 167.1 166.47
36495 167.3 166.66
36526 167.9 166.85 1.10
36557 169.3 167.17 4.55
36586 170.7 167.81 8.37
36617 170.6 168.67 3.71
36647 171.1 169.25 3.41
36678 171 169.81 1.42
36708 171.7 170.16 2.36
36739 172.2 170.63 2.48
36770 173.3 171.10 4.85
36800 173.8 171.76 4.17
36831 173.5 172.37 1.28
36861 173.5 172.71 0.62
MSE 3.19
RMSE 1.79

TimeCPI3-month MAFA-F(A-F)^26-month MAFA-F(A-F)^2

Jan-98161.0

Feb-98161.1

Mar-98161.4

Apr-98161.8

May-98162.3

Jun-98162.2

Jul-98162.1

Aug-98162.6

Sep-98162.6

Oct-98163.2

Nov-98163.4

Dec-98163.5

Jan-99164.2

Feb-99164.6

Mar-99165.0

Apr-99166.6

May-99166.2

Jun-99165.4

Jul-99165.8

Aug-99166.3

Sep-99167.2

Oct-99167.2

Nov-99167.1

Dec-99167.3

Jan-00167.9167.20.70.49

Feb-00169.3167.41.93.48

Mar-00170.7168.22.56.42

Apr-00170.6169.31.31.69

May-00171.1170.20.90.81

Jun-00171.0170.80.20.04

Jul-00171.7170.90.80.64

Aug-00172.2171.30.90.87

Sep-00173.3171.61.72.78

Oct-00173.8172.41.41.96

Nov-00173.5173.10.40.16

Dec-00173.5173.50.00.00

Salvatore's Chapter 6 Appendix Problem 1 (p.256)

Sheet1

Salvatore's Chapter 6 Appendix Problem 1 (p.256)
Time CPI 3-month MAF A-F (A-F)^2 6-month MAF A-F (A-F)^2
Jan-98 161.0
Feb-98 161.1
Mar-98 161.4
Apr-98 161.8
May-98 162.3
Jun-98 162.2
Jul-98 162.1
Aug-98 162.6
Sep-98 162.6
Oct-98 163.2
Nov-98 163.4
Dec-98 163.5
Jan-99 164.2
Feb-99 164.6
Mar-99 165.0
Apr-99 166.6
May-99 166.2
Jun-99 165.4
Jul-99 165.8
Aug-99 166.3
Sep-99 167.2
Oct-99 167.2
Nov-99 167.1
Dec-99 167.3
Jan-00 167.9 167.2 0.7 0.49
Feb-00 169.3 167.4 1.9 3.48
Mar-00 170.7 168.2 2.5 6.42
Apr-00 170.6 169.3 1.3 1.69
May-00 171.1 170.2 0.9 0.81
Jun-00 171.0 170.8 0.2 0.04
Jul-00 171.7 170.9 0.8 0.64
Aug-00 172.2 171.3 0.9 0.87
Sep-00 173.3 171.6 1.7 2.78
Oct-00 173.8 172.4 1.4 1.96
Nov-00 173.5 173.1 0.4 0.16
Dec-00 173.5 173.5 -0.0 0.00
MSE 1.61
RMSE 1.27

TimeCPIForecast(w=0.3)(A-F)^2Forecast(w=0.7)(A-F)^2

35796161.0166.63166.63

35827161.1164.94

35855161.4163.79

35886161.8163.07

35916162.3162.69

35947162.2162.57

35977162.1162.46

36008162.6162.35

36039162.6162.43

36069163.2162.48

36100163.4162.70

36130163.5162.91

36161164.2163.08

36192164.6163.42

36220165163.77

36251166.6164.14

36281166.2164.88

36312165.4165.28

36342165.8165.31

36373166.3165.46

36404167.2165.71

36434167.2166.16

36465167.1166.47

36495167.3166.66

36526167.9166.851.10

36557169.3167.174.55

36586170.7167.818.37

36617170.6168.673.71

36647171.1169.253.41

Salvatore's Chapter 6 Appendix Problem #3 (p.257)