topic denied
Mr.Q
final_project.pdf
qwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuio
pasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjkl
zxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmq
wertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiop
asdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklz
xcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmq
wertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiop
asdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklz
xcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmq
wertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiop
asdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklz
xcvbnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmq
wertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiop
asdfghjklzxcvbnmrtyuiopasdfghjklzxcv
bnmqwertyuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwert
yuiopasdfghjklzxcvbnmqwertyuiopasdf
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates
throughout the crisis By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
BA620 Final Project
12/11/2013
Rolando Vazquez-Molina
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 2
Contents
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Literature Review ...................................................................................................................................................... 5
The European sovereign-debt crisis & its impact on the Euro .............................................................................. 5
The Beginning of the crisis (2009) ......................................................................................................................... 5
The Rescue Packages (2010) ................................................................................................................................. 7
The Threat of the Euro (2011) ............................................................................................................................... 8
The Bailouts continue and so does the instability (2012) .................................................................................... 10
The Euro’s trends and tendencies before the crisis ............................................................................................. 11
Research Proposal ....................................................................................................................................................... 13
Data Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................... 15
Regression Analysis ................................................................................................................................................. 17
Correlation Table .................................................................................................................................................... 18
Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Sources ........................................................................................................................................................................ 21
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 3
Introduction
Throughout the history of Europe, there’s always been an effort made either by an empire, a
nation or an alliance of nations to bring all Europe into a Union. From the ancient Roman Empire
to the Nazi Government of Germany 1 , there’s always been a common objective: A Union, a
Community. However, this Union has translated into a different meaning to each one of the men
and women throughout history that have tried to create it. Should it be mainly a monetary Union
just like the French Radical, Abbot Charles de Saint-Pierre, first proposed in the 18 th
century?
Should it be a completely political Union just like William Penn, the British Philosopher first
proposed in the 17 th
century? Or should it be a monetary-economic Union like the Maastricht
Treaty finally established (Along with the introduction of the formal proposal of a single
European Currency, the Euro) in November 1993? Even if we’ll never know the definite and
irrevocable answers to each one of these questions; we need to remember to question each one of
the choices that have been made on the matter and determine if these have been the correct
choices (or the most adequate) for the European Community.
Unfortunately, one of these questions was answered negatively in 2007, when the
European sovereign debt crisis (often referred to as the Eurozone crisis) made it difficult or
impossible for some countries in the euro area to repay or re-finance their government debt
without the assistance of third parties. Consequently, the relatively new Common European
Currency, the Euro, finally started to play a heavier role in the Countries where the Crisis
affected the most at, leading us to the question that this essay’s content is based upon: Will the
1 Lipgens, Walter (1985). Documents on the History of European Integration: Continental Plans
for European Union.
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 4
European crisis affect the long-term prospects for the Euro?, and more specifically, how will the
exchange rates of the Non-Euro currency adopters be affected in the future due to this crisis?
Some of the past studies that have been proposed in order to evaluate the correlation
between trends and differences in economical factors and indicators for each respective
European Country throughout the crisis can prove useful in determining the effects that the
exchange rates of each currency has another and viceversa 2 . However, other factors such as
countries’ GDP growth and their individual reserves weren’t taken into consideration, which
leaves the previous research as “incomplete” for the purposes of the analysis that will be
performed in this essay. Also, the currency correlations weren’t limited in the Euro zone which is
another factor that will be evidently taken into consideration in this report.
It has also been defined that European currency exchange rates’ trends and linearity
between each other were broken throughout the crisis 3 , due to the fact that the anticipation for
this phenomena wasn’t consistent enough for most forecasting Economists. Which led to the
conclusion that the currencies’ trends were no longer correlated. However there wasn’t an
analysis to measure or attempt to determine which economic factors were still actively affecting
the exchange rates throughout the crisis. Consequently, this research will attempt to answer those
incognitas and provide a backing explanation of why some of the factors studied altered the
2 Yuan-Hung, H. K. (2008). Estimating portfolio value-at-risk via dynamic conditional correlation mgarch
model – an empirical study on foreign exchange rates.Journal of Applied Economic Letters, 2008(15), 533–538. 3 Apostolos Serletis, S., & Anastasios , G. M. (2012). Episodic nonlinearity in leading global
currencies.Open Economic Review, 23(337), 337-357. doi: DOI 10.1007/s11079-010-9194-9
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 5
exchange rates throughout the crisis the way they did and how they might affect such projections
in the future.
The future of the Euro might remain elusive now because of the crisis; but according to the
analysis performed in the following essay, the trends will continue to result in a negative linear
regression progress if action is not to be made; furthermore, the cause for this recession is deeply
related (if not utmost related) to the European Union debt crisis’ effects on some important
Economic indicators in each European Country; whose future almost entirely depends on how
long and how much will it take for Europe to rise above this crisis.
Literature Review
The European sovereign-debt crisis & its impact on the Euro
Before speaking about the Euro’s prospects, tendencies and trends, it is suitable to discuss the
crisis’ past and current situation in order to set the table straight for a discussion about the
prospects of the European Union’s currency, the Euro. Consequently, in the following section,
information regarding the start European crisis will be provided as well as the most recent
reports and relevant published researches that regard the current situation of the EU’s economic
status.
The Beginning of the crisis (2009)
During the later months of 2009, the phantom thought of an economic crisis or a sovereign debt
crisis started haunting the minds of several investors of the private sector. This was mainly
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 6
caused due to the rising levels of private and governmental debts around the world, as well as a
special wave of diminished governmental debt in some European Countries. 4
5
The factors behind the diminished governmental debts in each individual
European Country involved were diverse: For example, according to a report of Euro economy
in 2009 6 , Greece’s government debt increased due to unsustainable public sector wage and
pension commitments.
4 Fink, G., Haiss, P., Oeberseder, M., & Rainer, W. (2007). Dollar depreciation—Euro pain.
Journal Of Policy Modeling,29(5), 739-763. doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.06.010 5 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Currency Report
(October 2012). 6 HODSON, D. (2010). The EU Economy: The Euro Area in 2009. Journal Of Common Market
Studies, 48225-242. doi:10.1111/j.1468-5965.2010.02102.x
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 7
Another factor that might encompass a little bit more the cause of the financial
crisis, according to economist Mark Koba, is the fact that the structure of the Eurozone as a
monetary union (i.e., one currency) without fiscal union (e.g., different tax and public pension
rules) has largely contributed to the crisis and harmed the ability of European leaders to respond
effectively to the crisis and take any effective actions against it.
The Rescue Packages (2010)
Whatever the factors might have been, the concerns regarding the European Union’s economy
intensified in 2010, which led European finance ministers to approve on May 2010, a rescue
package by creating the European Stability Facility. This agreement and package included a
write-off of the Greek debt that was credited to private investors. This Write-off was estimated in
53% of the Greek Government debt. However, this package was broadly criticized because of
Greece’s fiscal instability and their historically unlikelihood of providing a fiscal adjustment that
would allow its debt to stabilize at a manageable level. This was reflected in reports that showed
how the real interest rates and other relevant economic indicators showed divergent numbers
from those published by the Countries involved. 7
Furthermore, several other countries in the European Union started to show the
same symptoms that the Greek economy showed in 2009. Among these Countries were Portugal,
Spain, Ireland and Italy. The consequences due to the lack of a unified European fiscal-union
that could efficiently manage each country’s particular situation were eminent, and actions
7 Farmer, K. (2011). Public-Debt Sustainability, Real Exchange Rate, and Country-Specific
Saving Rates.International Advances In Economic Research, 17(1), 45-65. doi:10.1007/s11294- 010-9284-x
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 8
needed to be taken quickly; actions that that would stop this crisis from expanding and hurting
more countries.
The Threat of the Euro (2011)
During the later months of 2010 and the first 10 months of 2011, European heads of state,
representatives and other political figures have adopted new Bailout Packages for different
Countries throughout the European Union. These bailout packages provide a burden relief to the
countries involved in the crisis, providing momentary relief to their economies, but no long term
solutions for the crisis have been successful yet.
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 9
Unfortunately, these bailouts and the operating plan behind them confirms what
most German Euro-Zone Economists denoted 10 years ago, when they anticipated the Greek
crisis, and it is the fact that according to them a European Monetary Union can’t work unless
there’s a centralized efficient fiscal union in effect throughout the Euro-Zone.
The fact that a common currency expands trade, business and commerce barriers
beyond national economic and customs borders is a positive aspect of having a unified monetary
union. However this currency also chains economies together; economies that might be
incompatible and that are forced to fit one within each other in order to comply with the
necessary Euro-zone agreements, that in an optimal continuously growing-economy environment
would result in an Economic Panacea. However, this Panacea is far away from reality and what
is a fact right now is that European economies are struggling to keep the balance within their
borders, least to say help the rest of the countries in the Union.
However, if the European Union decided to break the Euro apart and start the
economic Union from scratch in order to be able to efficiently establish the guidelines that would
prevent another crisis like this one from starting again, that’d mean the European union would
have to set back by decades, causing an even worse collapse of the European economy of what
we’ve experienced so far.
This is why the Euro is an ever constant threat, because if the monetary union
fails, it’d drag all the Countries who participated in it down along with it. This is why most
European politicians defend the Euro at all costs and why most bailout packages are accepted;
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 10
the heads of state are putting their bets on the survival of the Euro and buying time in order to
hope that markets settle down and the economy becomes stable once more, however as it was
shown in the G20 summit of that year, the economic packages and financial stability are topics
that are still to be discussed with some of the more underdeveloped European Countries 8 .
The Bailouts continue and so does the instability (2012)
After 3 years into the crisis, 4 countries continue to appear throughout the European Union as the
main contributors to the crisis’ slow progress through the years. These countries, Portugal,
Ireland, Greece and Spain only account for the 6% of the European GDP but seek to stay in the
union no matter what in order for their respective economies to improve as the crisis continues.
Unfortunately, these countries used to have economic problems and mini-crisis’
even before the joining the European Union, which means that instead of just “Kicking the can
downfield” for the rest of the EU countries, they dragged their “Snowballs” to them. Which
means the economic future for these countries remains elusive.
Albeit the seemingly stabilizing European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent long-term
interest rates reports for the later months of 2012 on the countries in the Euro-zone, the truth
behind the reports is much different, especially by judging how much better did these interest
rate’s trends performed earlier this year (2012) by showing a more stabilizing trend that might
have seemed as the light at the end of the tunnel for this crisis. Which means that according to
8 Iqbal, B. (2012). G-20 Summit and Debt Crisis of Europe. IBA Business Review, 7(1), 43-53.
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 11
the ECB, this crisis is regrettably, not likely to end or stabilize with the current European Union
Economic layout; unless fiscal unity is achieved. 9
Withal and to finish with this brief overall description of the current situation regarding the
European debt crisis and the Euro, when we take the recent inferior trends that the currency has
seen so far in late 2012 in comparison with its much superior and encouraging tendencies and
trends during the crisis in 2011, could lead us to think that the Euro’s future tendencies and
prospects are far from being clear and easily predicted for the upcoming year; a year that could
be the stage for many changes for the European and Global economy.
The Euro’s trends and tendencies before the crisis
Now that we’ve gone through a quick review of where the European crisis came from, how it
gained weight through 2011 and how those actions caused some of the events that are taking
place currently (2012); we can proceed to the next milestone of this essay, which is adequately
summarized in the following question: Did the Euro’s behaviour before the crisis projected a
positive trend in this currency’s future?
If we look at the Euro’s tendencies in comparison with the US Dollar (USD)
throughout 2008, the year before the crisis started, we can clearly observe how the European
currency developed a positive climbing trend in comparison with the value of the Dollar, when it
reached an exchange rate of 1.59 USD for 1 Euro, a number that has never been reached before
in the Euro’s history and that might never be reached again.
9 Buhagiar, T. (2013). Fiscal union or bust. Research In Business & Economics Journal, 767-76.
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 12
But what exactly was causing the European currency’s exchange rates to go up
and acquire positive trends and tendencies before the crisis? Were there really flourishing
economic events throughout Europe which caused the European Bank to react in this way? Or
was there something else occurring from a macroeconomic perspective?
According to a 2007 Financial Times report, the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) General Director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, after praising the European Central Bank’s
capacity and actions of containing the inflation of the European currency, he also mentioned that
because of the bank’s actions, the Euro, was in turn being overvalued.
o ”We are seeing great distortions between currencies. The Yuan and the Yen are undervalued,
the euro is overvalued and the dollar is between the two,” he said.
o ”We are alerting governments so that they correct these imbalances and we have seen with
pleasure that the Chinese authorities are progressively accepting an exchange rate that is more
realistic, in their own interests,” he added.
o ”But a return to equilibrium does not depend on one single currency,” he said.
On a final note, the General Director predicted that an economic storm was approaching the
European Union, by stating that this overvaluing could lead the Eurozone into an economic
slowdown if the inflation could no longer be controlled. And it did.
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 13
So was the Euro really overvalued? Apparently so, and not only that, but the measures that were
taken in order to control it weren’t effective enough to contain the storm that started in 2009, and
that unfortunately is still under way today (2012). This means that even if the Euro showed a
positive tendency throughout 2008, it was nothing but a mirage, a contained growth, a projected
effect that the European Central Bank was controlling in order to stabilize the Economies within
the Eurozone.
Therefore, and like It was stated previously, the reason of why this number, this
European currency exchange rate value, might never be reached again is because of how the
recent trends of the European Currency, seem to reflect an ever sinking negative growth that
might rise for a month or two but whose exchange rate is ultimately drowned again, developing
negative tendencies that just makes us ask ourselves if this tendency is really a seasonal trend or
the death mark of a currency whose value might not rise again, since some research shows that
this Euro Crisis might only be the tip of the Economic-Crisis iceberg 10
.
Research Proposal
We’ve discussed the progress of the European crisis along with how different researches seem to
indicate how the exchange rates of the Euro are linked to a several array of factors such as
interest rates, savings rate, GDP, change in country’s reserves, etc.
10
Bilkic, N. N., Carreras Painter, B. B., & Gries, T. T. (2013). Unsustainable sovereign debt-is the Euro crisis only the tip of the iceberg?. International Economics & Economic Policy, 10(1), 1- 45. doi:10.1007/s10368-013-0230-2
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 14
However, we haven’t talked or discussed the macro economical effects on the other side
of the coin in this crisis, and that side represents all the currencies that aren’t pegged, linked or
officially used along with the Euro in Europe; and how these currencies have been affected or
altered throughout the crisis thanks to the Eurozone Crisis and the devastating effect it has
caused on the exchange rate of the Euro.
From a whole European perspective, it can be obvious to assume that negative trends and
changes in important economic indicators such as country GDP, change in reserves, government
debt, etc. might have a positive or negative effect on the Euro’s exchange rate. However, how do
these factors affect the exchange rate of currencies still being used in Europe apart from the
Euro? And most importantly, is the exchange rate of the Euro correlated with the exchange rates
of these currencies as well?
Although previous researches have been carried out regarding the economic implications
of macroeconomic factors in European countries in comparison with the Euro exchange rate, a
concise analysis regarding the other European currencies and the factors affecting their exchange
rates hasn’t been carried out yet.
That is why the purpose of this research is to put the exchange rate information (in
comparison with the Euro) of the 11 currencies that were used in Europe, asides from the Euro,
throughout the European crisis and perform a correlation, ANOVA and regression analysis on a
diverse set of public economic indicators published by the World Bank in order to determine if
the indicators and their behaviour are closely related to the exchange rates of these currencies
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 15
and if an equation could be implemented using regression analysis to measure these trends and
changes in currency exchange in the future.
Data Analysis
After obtaining the relevant exchange rates from the World Bank website, the exchange
rates in comparison with the Euro were used as our dependent variable throughout the research
(Euro/Non Euro).
A Dummy variable for each year in the analysis was also implemented, in order to
evaluate and identify any possible seasonality trends of exchange rates that might have occurred
throughout the crisis that could prove to be useful and relevant to the exchange rate analysis.
Also, for this research a significance level of 85% will be used, which is the average
significance level implemented in economical analysis without the availability of broad data (the
time span used in this research will be 5 years of published information, 2008-2012).
The Economic factors to be used in the research (independent variables) are the following
(All these variables’ data was obtained from the website of the World Bank) 11
:
11
www.worldbank.org/ (Website of the World Bank Organization)
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 16
Variable (Units) Description Mean (Standard Deviation)
GDP Growth (%)
Yearly change in gross
domestic product measured in
dollars (USD).
-4.77 (4.8214)
Real Interest Rate (%)
Yearly change in real interest
rate reported, measured in
dollars (USD).
4.9536 (4.1770)
Inflation (%)
Yearly change in inflation,
measured in dollars (USD).
6.1455 (2.9977)
Growth in total Reserves (USD
& Gold) (%)
Yearly growth in reserves,
measured in dollars (USD) &
Gold.
0.2759 (26.7325)
Change in government debt as a
percentage of GDP (%)
Yearly change in government
debt as a percentage of the
GDP (measured in dollars).
-1.4275 (15.4834)
The currencies to be used in this research include some of the most important and solidly
invested in currencies in the world such as the Pound Sterling from the UK and the Swiss Franc
from Switzerland. The complete list that will be used in this research is the following (The
exchange rates were obtained from the World Bank Website as well):
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 17
1. Pound Sterling (GBP)
2. Swiss Franc (CHF)
3. Swedish Krona (SEK)
4. Danish Krone (DKK)
5. Hungarian Forint (HUF)
6. Romanian Leu (RON)
7. Latvian Lats (LVL)
8. Estonian Kroon (EEK) [Replaced by the Euro in 2013]
9. Czech Koruna (CZK)
10. Polish Zloty (PLN)
11. Bulgarian Lev (BGN)
Regression Analysis
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 18
As we can observe from the results, the only economical factors from which we can establish a
linear relationship (to a 15% significance level) with are:
● Real Interest Rate
● Inflation
● Change in government debt as percentage of GDP.
Correlation Table
Also, the results of the correlation table show us that the variables that have the most effect on
average, in the exchange rate, are GDP growth and total reserves. This proves the point that was
stated at the beginning of this essay in which it was assumed that some of these factors were
correlated.
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 19
Conclusion
In conclusion, thanks to the regression analysis we were able to prove that 3 of the
macroeconomic indicators that were chosen to analyze the exchange rates throughout the crisis
proved to be useful in order to generate a linear equation that would potentially be used to
predict the outcome of an exchange rate if some of the important indicators were plugged in.
Real Interest Rate and Inflation positively affect the exchange rate directly in terms that
these variables lead to appreciation of the currency in comparison to the Euro, possibly due to
the positive economic effects that arise when these factors are increased in a national level. On
the other hand, the Government debt variable has a negative effect on the exchange rate mainly
due to the fact that a high governmental debt might depreciate a Country’s currency in
comparison with the Euro in the international currency market.
Also, thanks to the ANOVA test, it was determined that the Euro Crisis didn’t affect each
country’s currency equally, and that the exchange rate of other European currencies was affected
differently by the exchange rate of the Euro, which can lead us to conclude that the Eurozone
economic crisis affected each currency differently.
The correlation table also provided helpful insight in order to determine which factors
were most interlinked between each other and in turn, affected the exchange rate of each
country’s currency more.
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 20
Future implementations for this research include it being the basis for other exploratory
research in regards to the effects that Eurozone crisis had in other non-economical factors
throughout the affected years; and also, to prove or disprove the decision of joining or not
joining the Eurozone as an acceptable one (or not) after measuring the exchange effects that the
crisis had on exchange rates and consequently affected the life quality or growth of the economy
of some countries throughout the zone.
Finally, this research might also be implemented in order to generate a simulation project
or application in which the variables that lead to these exchange rates might be altered in order to
analyze what direct and indirect effects and phenomena can be caused by the manipulation of our
independent variables; a study that might help us predict the effects that arise and follow after
this crisis is over.
To Euro or not to Euro, a Study of the Impact on European exchange rates throughout the crisis
By Rolando Vazquez-Molina
Page 21
Sources
1. Lipgens, Walter (1985). Documents on the
History of European Integration:
Continental Plans for European Union.
2. Yuan-Hung, H. K. (2008). Estimating
portfolio value-at-risk via dynamic
conditional correlation mgarch model – an
empirical study on foreign exchange
rates.Journal of Applied Economic Letters,
2008(15), 533–538.
3. Apostolos Serletis, S., & Anastasios , G. M.
(2012). Episodic nonlinearity in leading
global currencies.Open Economic Review,
23(337), 337-357. doi: DOI
10.1007/s11079-010-9194-9
4. Fink, G., Haiss, P., Oeberseder, M., &
Rainer, W. (2007). Dollar depreciation—
Euro pain. Journal Of Policy
Modeling,29(5), 739-763.
doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.06.010
5. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=
X&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Currency
Report (October 2012).
6. HODSON, D. (2010). The EU Economy:
The Euro Area in 2009. Journal Of Common
Market Studies, 48225-242.
doi:10.1111/j.1468-5965.2010.02102.x
7. Farmer, K. (2011). Public-Debt
Sustainability, Real Exchange Rate, and
Country-Specific Saving Rates.International
Advances In Economic Research, 17(1), 45-
65. doi:10.1007/s11294-010-9284-x
8. Iqbal, B. (2012). G-20 Summit and Debt
Crisis of Europe. IBA Business Review,
7(1), 43-53.
9. Buhagiar, T. (2013). Fiscal union or bust.
Research In Business & Economics Journal,
767-76.
10. Bilkic, N. N., Carreras Painter, B. B., &
Gries, T. T. (2013). Unsustainable sovereign
debt-is the Euro crisis only the tip of the
iceberg?. International Economics &
Economic Policy, 10(1), 1-45.
doi:10.1007/s10368-013-0230-2
