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Instructions

Expected Commercial Value (ECV) Calculator V.05 The ECV Calculator provides a quick estimate of a project's commercial viability. It is not meant to be the only decision tool when evaluating the desirability of a project. It does provide insight as to whether a project warrants further review and justification as well as point to potential issues. Instructions: The following information is needed to perform this project analysis: * Cost of Capital (Discount Rate) the company experiences. * Estimated Unit Sales Price * Estimated Development cost of the project * Launch and Marketing Costs for a 10 year period * Forecast of Unit Sales for a 10 year period * Estimate of technical success probability * Estimate of commercial success probability This data is completed in the rows with Blue Titles on the Input Tab. Cells with "Green" text are calculated and should not be overwritten. 1) Enter values for Probabilities & Cost of Capital in the first table on the Input tab 2) Enter values for Development Costs, Launch Costs, and Estimate Unit Sales in the second table on the Input tab Estimated Commercial Value of project will be displayed at top of the Input tab and on the Output tab. The Output tab also displays the Expense / Revenue Chart . Support Dr. George J. Gannage Jr. Strayer University [email protected]

Input

Expected Commercial Value (NPV)	$0.00
Probability of Commercial Success	0.8
Probability of Technical Success	1
Unit Sales Price	$400
Discount Rate	0.06
Cashflows	FY13	FY 14	FY15	FY16	FY17	FY18	FY19	FY20	FY21	FY22	FY23
Development Costs						$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0
Launch and Marketing Costs											$ - 0
Forecasted Units Sold
Forecasted Revenue (Unit Sales Price x Units Sold )		$ - 0		$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0	$ - 0
Discounted Cashflows (10 Year)	Calculated
NPV Income	$0.00
NPV Development Costs	$0.00
NPV Launch and Marketing Costs	$0.00
Marketing Cost Ratio	Success Probability	Cost of Capital
0.2	0.2	0.06
0.4	0.4	0.08
0.6	0.6	0.1
0.8	0.8	0.12
1	1	0.14
1.2		0.16
1.4		0.18
1.6		0.2
1.8		0.22
2		0.24
2.2		0.26
2.4		0.28
2.5		0.3
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4

Output

	Expected Commercial Value (NPV)	$0.00

Development Costs FY13 FY 14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 0 0 0 0 0 0 Launch and Marketing Costs FY13 FY 14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 0 Forecasted Revenue (Unit Sales Price x Units Sold ) FY13 FY 14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0