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P8

States of Nature Summary Decision
Decision Gasoline Availablity a) maximax
Investment Shortage Stable Supply Surplus Maximum Minimum b) maximin
Motel -$8,000 $15,000 $20,000 c) minimax regret
Restaurant $2,000 $8,000 $6,000 d) Hurwicz (alpha = 0.4)
Theater $6,000 $6,000 $5,000 e) Equal Likelihood
Maximax decision =
Minimax decision = $0
Regret Table
States of Nature
Decision Gasoline Availablity
Investment Shortage Stable Supply Surplus Maximum
Motel
Restaurant
Theater
Minimax regret = $0
Hurwicz
alpha = 0.4 Decision:
1 - alpha = 0.6
Motel
Restaurant
Theater
Equal Likelihood
Motel Decision:
Restaurant
Theater

P16

Problem 16 - Concessions
Decision Tables
Data
Profit Rain Overcast Sunshine EV
Probability 0.3 0.15 0.55 Sun Visor -$150 -300 825 375
Sun Visors -500 -200 1500 Umbrella 600 0 -495105
Umbrellas 2000 0 -900
Opportunity Loss Table
Rain Overcast Sunshine EOL
Probability 0.3 0.15 0.55 Sun Visor $2,000 $1,700 0 $855
Sun Visors Umbrella 0 $2,000 $2,900 $1,895
Umbrellas
Decision:

P24

Problem 24 - Real estate Development
Decision Tables
Interest Rate
Project Decline (0.5) Stable (0.4) Increase (0.1) EV
Office park $0.50 $1.70 $4.50 Office park Decision
Office building 1.5 1.9 2.5 Office building
Warehouse 1.7 1.4 1 Warehouse
Mall 0.7 2.4 3.6 Mall
Condominiums 3.2 1.5 0.6 Condominiums
Opportunity Loss table
Interest Rate
Project Decline (0.5) Stable (0.4) Increase (0.1)
Office park
Office building
Warehouse
Mall
Condominiums
EVPI

P34

Economic Conditions
Degree Program Recession Average Good Robust Maximum Minimum Summary Decision
Graphic design 145,000 175,000 220,000 260,000 a) maximax
Nursing 150,000 180,000 205,000 215,000 b) maximin
Real estate 115,000 165,000 220,000 320,000 c) minimax regret
Medical technology 130,000 180,000 210,000 280,000 d) Hurwicz (alpha = 0.4)
Culinary technology 115,000 145,000 235,000 305,000 e) Equal Likelihood
Computer information technology 125,000 150,000 190,000 250,000
Maximax decision = $0
Minimax decision = $0
Regret Table
Economic Conditions
Degree Program Recession Average Good Robust
Graphic design 145,000 175,000 220,000 260,000
Nursing 150,000 180,000 205,000 215,000
Real estate 115,000 165,000 220,000 320,000
Medical technology 130,000 180,000 210,000 280,000
Culinary technology 115,000 145,000 235,000 305,000
Computer information technology 125,000 150,000 190,000 250,000
Equal Likelihood
Graphic design
Nursing
Real estate
Medical technology
Culinary technology
Computer information technology Decision:
Hurwicz
alpha = 0.5
1 - alpha = 0.5
Graphic design
Nursing
Real estate
Medical technology
Culinary technology
Computer information technology Decision:

P36_refP25

0.6
Shortage
0 Problem #25 (reference)
Compact Cars 0 Data Results
Profit Shortage Surplus EMV
0 0 0.4 Probability 0.6 0.4
Surplus Compact cars 300000 150000 240000
0 Full-sized cars -100000 600000 180000
0 Trucks 120000 170000 140000
0.6
Shortage
0
Full-sized cars 0
1
0 0 0 0.4
Surplus Decision
0
0
0.6
Shortage
0
Trucks 0
0 0 0.4
Surplus
0
0
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D 3 1 2 3 0 0 14 1 TRUE
1 0 0 E 2 4 5 0 0 0 4 5 TRUE
2 0 0 E 2 6 7 0 0 0 14 5 TRUE
3 0 0 E 2 8 9 0 0 0 24 5 TRUE
4 1 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 TRUE
5 1 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 9 TRUE
6 2 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 9 TRUE
7 2 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 9 TRUE
8 3 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 9 TRUE
9 3 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 9 TRUE