2 questions in 2 hours

Operations Management

First Examination

II. The number of plumbing repair jobs performed by Augur’s Plumbing Service in each of the last three months is listed below.

Time Period		Demand
4 years ago		61
3 years ago		64
2 years ago		69
1 year ago		77

A. What is this year's forecast using a weighted moving average, with the weights equal to .6, .3, .1?

B. What is this year's forecast using the linear trend (regression) approach?

III. The Readylite Company produces a flashlight in which product managers are trying to decide how long a warranty to issue.

If the managers believe the life of the flashlight follows a normal distribution with a mean of two- and- one half years and a standard deviation of six months:

a. What percentage of flashlights sold can they anticipate will be returned within the first two years?

b. What percentage of flashlights sold can they anticipate will be returned within the first three years/

c. What percentage of flashlights sold can they anticipate will be returned within the first two and one half years?