Asian Business Essay! (Looking for a professional business major writer ONLY)
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china2a.ppt“THE OPENING” OF CHINA BROUGHT
Economic disruption
Political difficulties
Opium War, unequal treaties, Taipings
Rise of anti-Manchu “nationalism”
Crisis of confidence
Half-way measures
Self-Strengthening - “Ti-Yong”
Modernization steps
Aim: To save the regime
Result: Undermined the regime
CHINA AS VICTIM: THE CENTURY OF HUMILIATION
1911 – A FAILED REVOLUTION
SUN YATSEN
COMINTERN INTEREST
WORKING AT CROSS PURPOSES
YUAN SHIKAI
WARLORDS
CONTINUED FOREIGN DOMINANCE
“THE NATIONALIST DECADE” 1927-1937
DEVELOPMENT BUT CORRUPTION
SURVIVAL OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY
JIANGXI SOVIET
LONG MARCH
YENAN
CHIANG KAISHEK:
WHOM TO FIGHT?
COMMUNISTS
OR
JAPANESE?
THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY
INITIALLY URBAN CENTERED
Comintern control
Why cooperate with GMD?
“China as the key link”
“Marxist evolution”
FAILURE OF CCP/GMD COLLABORATION
TO THE COUNTRYSIDE
MAO IN OPPOSITION
THE JIANGXI SOVIET
EXTERMINATION CAMPAIGNS 1931-34
THE LONG MARCH 1934-1936
“Red Star Over China”
YENAN
THE SECOND UNITED FRONT
XIAN INCIDENT - 1937
BUT THE WAR WENT BADLY
FROM NANJING TO CHONGQING
NANJING MASSACRE
NANJING PUPPET REGIME (WANG JINGWEI)
FROM A CHINA WAR TO A PACIFIC WAR
JAPAN CLASHES WITH RUSSIA
PEARL HARBOR
Both Chiang and Mao know the US
will defeat Japan
GETTING READY FOR THE POST-WAR STRUGGLE
GMD corruption
CCP land reform
THE CCP
Emerges from May 4th, WWI disillusionment
It was no sure thing
* Initial urban successes and failures
* Link with the GMD - The 1st United Front
“Party from within”
*1927 - To the countryside - the Jiangxi Soviet
Mao in opposition with the Shanghai Center
Mobilize the peasants
Initial “land reform” efforts - “yundong”
* 1934/5 - Strategic retreat: The Long March
*1935-47 - Yenan: Mao in command
Xian Incident (1936)
“Rectification” & thought-reform movements
War & Civil War
LEGACIES OF THE CCP RISE TO POWER
PERSONAL RIVALRIES, FACTIONALISM
IDEOLOGY
“MOBILIZATION”/”MOVEMENTS”/”CAMPAIGNS”
PENETRATION OF SOCIETY
“MULTIPLE HATS”
PARTY/ARMY LINKS
MAOIST “WILL”
RECTIFICATION/VIOLENCE
CENTRALIZED, BUREAUCRATIC AUTHORITARIANISM
The Son of Heaven tradition
Power: Absolute and arbitrary
Correct behavior --> Correct thought --> Correct society
Personalism: Weak Institutions
Illegitimacy of opposition.
Focus on internal threats,
ignore external dangers (or opportunities)
[But corruption of the Celestial Empire
comes from foreign conspiracies.]
THE AMBIGUOUS LEGACY OF THE WEST
The Ti-Yong question
“Self-Reliance”
CCP PERSONALITIES
MAO ZEDONG
ZHOU ENLAI
ZHU DE
LIU SHAOQI
YE JIANYING
LIN BIAO
KANG SHENG
JIANG QING
THE CHRONOLOGY & KEY EVENTS
1949 - 56 - Victory & Consolidation
1950-53 - Korean War
1956-7 - “100 Flowers”
1957 - “The Great Leap Forward”
1959-65 - Reconsolidation
1966-69 - Cultural Revolution - Part I
1970-76 - Cultural Revolution - Part II
1972 - Nixon in China
1976 - Death of Mao
1978 - “Four Modernizations” & Reform
“Socialism with Chinese characteristics”; “1st stage of socialism”
But “4 Cardinal Principles”
1989 - Tiananmen
1992 - “Get Rich is Glorious”
1997 - Hong Kong, Macao “recovered”
1997 - Deng Xiaoping dies
Post 1997 - Jiang Zemin, WTO, Hu Jintao….Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang
Explosion of the Chinese economy, growth of crony
capitalism, “indigenous innovation”….
2010-14 – Approaching the middle income trap?
JIANG ZEMIN/HU JINTAO/XI JINPING
PRC POLICY CYCLES
“RED” ‘EXPERT”
“MAOIST”, “BUREAUCRATIC” “LIBERAL”
REVOLUTIONARY
CONSOLIDATION (1949-52)
LAND REFORM 1ST 5-YR PLAN
100 FLOWERS (1956)
(ANTI-RIGHTIST)
GREAT LEAP FORWARD 1956-60)
[Sino-Soviet split] RECOVERY
CULTURAL REVOLUTION: GANG OF FOUR (1966-69/76)
[Nixon Visit]
1976: Death Of The Leaders
ARREST OF GANG
HUA INTERREGNUM
DENG REFORMS
TIANANMEN
8TH 5-YR PLAN
REFORMS BACK ON TRACK?
(Deng’s Southern Tour. 14th PC: 1992)
AUSTERITY/CREDIT CRISIS (1993-98)
“NEW” NATIONALISM
15TH PARTY CONGRESS
1999-2000 ¿¿SOE REFORM??!!!ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS!!!?? WTO???!!!
THE ROLE OF DENG XIAOPING
Dedicated follower of Chairman Mao?
Capitalist roader?
Authoritarian pragmatist?
Making China strong: wealth and power
Key: 3rd Plenum of the
11th Central Committee (1976)
1992: ‘”Nanxun” - 1992
On his watch:
Continued agriculture reform, but shift in focus to industry
Further moves away from central planning – “capitalism with Chinese characteristics”, “market socialism”
“authoritarian capitalism”
Learning from the world: the Tigers, SEZs
Link China to the rest of the world
Engagement with US
BUT
Supremacy of Party #1 (“4 Cardinal Principles”)
Tiananmen
Time, March 3, 1997
FRANKENSTEIN’S LAW
EVERYTHING YOU HEAR
ABOUT CHINA IS TRUE
BUT NONE OF IT IS RELIABLE
FRANKENSTEIN’S LAW
A QUESTION OF SCALE
GEOGRAPHIC
HISTORIC
CHANGE (millions up from poverty)
(from “Standing up” to “Long Live Chairman Mao” to “To get rich is glorious” and “Black cats/White cats” to “China Dream” )
A QUESTION OF PERCEPTION
MANY CHINAS
A QUESTION OF INFORMATION
A LEGACY OF SECRETS
CHINA’S FOUR BASIC QUESTIONS
HOW TO RULE A LARGE COUNTRY WITH
A LARGE POPULATION FROM A SINGLE PLACE
HOW TO MAKE CHINA GREAT AGAIN
HOW TO TRANSFORM CHINA’S SOCIETY
HOW TO DEAL WITH THE OUTSIDE WORLD
- HOW TO RULE
Need for a strong state, authoritarian rule, justified by ideology
Pragmatism
CCP dominance at all levels (societal penetration)
2. GREATNESS
“China Dream”
China coming back as the West declines
3. TRANSFORMATION
Technology from the West but “stay Chinese” (ti-yong?)
Catch up
Shift from factory to innovator
Go green
Develop the interior provinces
4. THE OUTSIDE WORLD
A source for transformation
Shift from autarchy to engagement (globalization & WTO)
A source of subversion and meddling
No more “disrespect”
TRANSFORMING SOCIETY:
WHOSE VISION?
“THREE ROADS”?
“LIBERAL”
“BUREAUCRATIC”
“RADICAL”
CONFUCIAN LENINISM:
THE BUREAUCRATIC CENTRAL TENDENCY
CHINA & THE WORLD:
FROM “EMERGING” TO “EMERGED”
or
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR--YOU MAY GET IT!
PRESIDENT CLINTON, JANUARY 2000
As China joins the WTO
On November 15th of last year, my Administration signed an historic trade agreement with the People's Republic of China. … more than any other step we can take right now, it will draw China into a system of international rules and thereby encourage the Chinese to choose reform at home and integration with the world.
China on our minds….
“Made in China. Bought Everywhere”
“U.S. Takes Steps to Limit Import Surge From China”
“Wave of Corruption Tarnishes China's Extraordinary Growth”
“Investment Bubble Builds New China”
“Crouching Tiger, Swimming Dragon”
“The China Price”
“Across Asia, Beijing's Star Is in Ascendance”
CHINA FACTOIDS
(FROM TIGER HEAD, SNAKE TAILS BY JONATHAN FENBY)
“A NATION ON SPEED”
CHINA: LARGEST STEEL MAKER, LARGEST ENERGY USER
WORLD GROWTH: > 50% FROM CHINA
GDP/CAP FROM 528 RMB IN 1980 TO > 6000 RMB BY 2010
WORLD’S LARGEST MONETARY RESERVES
LARGEST EMITTER OF CO2
PRC LENDS MORE TO LDC THAN WORLD BANK
70%+ OF POPULATION TO BE IN CITIES BY 2035
WORLD’S LARGEST CAR MARKET
MILLIONAIRES AND BILLIONAIRES
BUT…
A BLAZING ECONOMY OR COLLECTION OF BUBBLES?
Asia…or the world…in orbit around China?
Source:
Asian Wall
St. Journal
ISSUES I
FROM “EMERGING” TO “EMERGED”
WORLD’S #2 TRADING NATION
TRADE GROWTH 2-3X THAT OF WORLD TRADE
CHINA “DISPLACES” OTHER LDCS
OVERVALUED RMB?
WTO COMPLIANCE? IPR ISSUES?
ISSUES II
PRIVATIZATION - ABOUT 2/3RDS OUTPUT
FROM PRIVATE SECTOR
BUT FINANCIAL ISSUES
THE FINANCIAL SECTOR
OVERHEATING?
(Investment in fixed assets >40% GDP)
THE ENVIRONMENT - CHINA “CLOUDS”
CHINA & DEMAND FOR RESOURCES
(energy, concrete, metals)
CHINA’S DOMESTIC ISSUES
URBAN MIDDLE CLASS - CONSUMERISM
DISPLACED WORKERS
THE RURAL SECTOR
RISING NATIONALISM
THE FUTURE OF THE PARTY?
CHINA’S DOMESTIC ISSUES
URBAN MIDDLE CLASS - CONSUMERISM
DISPLACED WORKERS
THE RURAL SECTOR
RISING NATIONALISM
THE FUTURE OF THE PARTY?
INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ISSUES
A NEW SUPERPOWER?
JAPAN--WHO’S #1
NORTH KOREAN NUKES
TAIWAN
TERRORISM
HUMAN RIGHTS
COMPETITION OVER RESOURCES
Apologies! jf
