Decision Making Assignment

Running Head: DECISION MAKING 1

DECISION MAKING 2

Statistics Usage

In this paper, a preview will be given of real world stories, which illustrate the six types of abuse and misuse of statistics. These are; Surveys, Counting, Percentages, Doubt, Causation and Averages.

Surveys

The Story- It is about a new study which reveals that gay or lesbian’s children may most probably have not only more social but also emotional problems as compared to children from normal marriages. Mark Regnerus who is an associate sociology professor from University of Texas, Austin, conducted the study. He surveyed Americans exceeding the figure of 15,000 whose ages ranged between 18 to 39 years by posing questions to them concerning their upbringings. Its findings can be accessed on the Social Science Research issue of July 2012. The aforementioned issues can be accessed through http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0049089X12000610

The Flaw-Children from lesbian or gay parents may probably have lived within many diverse family structures, and there is no possibility of isolating the impact of living with lesbian parents from experiencing remarriage, divorce or brought up by single parent.

The Reason-The researcher may have intended to carry out a population based study, that is classified as “gold standard” within the sociology field. In addition, it seems the researcher was making use of the research to publicize the right-wing agenda.

The Lesson- The researcher could have obtained more realistic results if he made comparisons of same-sex couples and heterosexual children who were brought up in identical homes, without experiencing divorces, foster care or separations. It is not possible to establish whether same-sex parenting can bring about the mentioned differences on the basis of the researcher’s descriptive analysis (Stevenson & Sommers, 2006).

Counting

The Story- In this case, let’s take a look at a research entitled, ‘why calories count: From science to politics’. The research can be accessed through http://www.foodpolitics.com/why-calories-count-from-science-to-politics-available-april-2012/. Nutrition scientists Marion Nestle along with Malden Nesheim reveal the misery surrounding calories count in our bodies. They state how calories are really counted, why humans need them, how they utilize them, the number which is most appropriate, as well as, the manner in which in some occasions people get it wrong. They expound on how misleading is the information provided by food manufacturers along with diet program is misleading.

The Flaw-Calories cannot be counted in an approximate manner. Most of the figures given about the calorie content of most foods are simply approximations. Despite the fact that most individuals take food on the basis of their calorie value, most of these values are mostly wrong (Stevenson & Sommers, 2006).

The Reason- The researchers intended to prove that a person can establish the right number of calories within the food, which he or she is taking.

The Lesson- As much as we talk about calories, it is not easy to establish their exact figures in various food items. Nonetheless, for one to comprehend the problem with their eating habit, they ought to comprehend the major role which calories play. It is also of great essence for one to understand the reason why much food choice lies within the food marketers’ hands whose objective is simply to sell as many products as possible.

Percentages

The Story- A recent study has established that the media as at present fails to put wildfires within climate context. The study about wildlife coverage carried out between April, 2013 and July, 2013 revealed that print along with TV just mentioned climate change within 6% of their coverage. The study says that the figure actually doubled that of the previous year. The study goes on further to mention that although numerous factors should come together to make wildfires to take place, climate change has resulted to hotter, as well as, drier conditions within regions of the west which are at a greater risk of having wildfires. This can be accessed through http://mediamatters.org/research/2013/07/03/study-media-still-largely-fail-to-put-wildfires/194733.

The Flaw-It has not been stated how the increase in the percentage of coverage will impact positively on the issue under discussion. Will there be any difference if the media had a 100% of wild fires? Besides, what difference has already been observed after the figures of the present year doubled from those of the previous year?

The Reason- the researchers were trying to illustrate that an increased coverage of wildfires will definitely bring about positive results.

The Lesson- There is the need to connect the coverage percentage to the impact on the wildfires. In addition, it is of great essence to specify the nature of coverage, which will bring about positive impact. Is about mitigation or about how to deal with the wildfires?

Averages

The Story-There is a study, which was carried d out by H. Wesley Perkins about the impact of alcohol misuse within college populations. Within the research, Perkins sates the average number of drinks which are consumed by A average students all the way to D or F average students every week. In accordance to the study, the A average student in average consumes 3.4 drinks every week, the B student 4.5 drinks, the C student, 6.1 drinks while the D or F student 9.8 drinks on average. The study is featured within the following link: http://www.collegedrinkingprevention.gov/supportingresearch/Journal/perkins.aspx

The Flaw-It is highly likely that the researcher did not add all the drinks consumed by the students under study within every category so as to come up with the average values. Practically, one can come across an A average student who drinks more than an F student. Most probably the researcher’s averages were biased in respect to the student performance (Stevenson & Sommers, 2006).

The Reason-the researcher had a mindset that good performers are light drinkers while the poor performers are the heavy drinkers.

The Lesson –It should be noted that the average value tends to bear insignificant relation to the distinctive person. There is some biasness when getting averages of a data that is meant to construe certain facts as true.

Causation

The Story- The manner in which spanking in early childhood correlated to later behavior problems. Can be accessed through http://www.pedsforparents.com/articles/2906.shtml

The Flaw-What if the spanking began later in teenage, would it also have impact on the adult age behavior of the victim. Does the spanking always lead to good behavior or can also bring about bad behavior.

The Reason-the researchers suggest that in some way childhood spanking can be correlated to late behaviors.

The Lesson- Some things, which happen after an event, are not necessarily caused by it.

Doubt

The Story-Over, as well as, under-treatment of pain should be blamed for not only early retirement but also los of man-hours specifically within Germany. The story has been featured in the following link: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21522485.

The Flaw-The study does not give the exact figures of those affected.

The Reason-It basically wants to give a general cause of the early retirement and loss of man-hours within Germany.

The Lesson-Even though numbers are not definitely accurate, it is important to give them because they give a sense of direction (Galbraith & Stone, 2011).

Summary

Statistics abuse takes place once a certain statistical argument states a falsehood. Even though in certain cases, the said misuse is basically accidental; in other cases it is not only purposeful but it is also used for the benefit of the perpetrator. Once the statistical reason given is false, it results to the spread of statistical fallacies. It is of great essence to avoid misusing statistics because it brings about devastating effects on the expedition for knowledge. For instance, within the medical field, it is highly likely that noting, as well as, correcting of an identified falsehood will take a great duration of time thereby costing lots of lives (Best, 2001).

It should be noted that it is easy to fall into misuses. The well renowned professional statisticians can easily fall victims of the misuses even when the methods applied are relatively simple. Most scientists end up abusing statistics because of the failure to gain commendable knowledge on probability theory, as well as, the failure to standardize tests. The aforementioned types of misusing statistics are brought about by certain mistakes such as discarding unfavorable data, making overgeneralizations in addition to making use of biased samples. In order to make the research findings worthwhile, it is essential to avoid misusing statistics.

References

Best, J. (2001). Damned lies and statistics: Untangling numbers from the media, politicians, and activists. Berkeley, Calif. [u.a.: Univ. of California Press.

Galbraith, J. & Stone, M. (2011). "The abuse of regression in the National Health Service allocation formulae: Response to the Department of Health's 2007 'resource allocation research paper'". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 174 (3): 517–528.

Stevenson, J. S., & Sommers, M. S. (2006). Alcohol use, misuse, abuse and dependence. New York: Springer.