Forecasting

People call a suburban hospital’s health hotline at the rate of eighteen per hour on Monday mornings; this can be described by poisson distribution. Providing general information or channeling to other resources takes an average of three minutes per call and varies exponentially. There is one nurse agent on duty on Mondays. Determine each of the following.

A, System utilization

B, Average number in line

C, Average time in line

D, Average time in the system.

Second question: The monthly ambulatory visits occurred in an outpatient clinic.

Months Visits

July 2,160

August 2,186

September 2,246

October 2,251

November 2,243

December 2,162

A, predict visits for January, using the naïve forecast method

B, predict visits for January, using a three-period moving average

C, predict visits for January, using a four-period moving average

Explain which of the three results you have the most confidence in projecting accurately and why that is.