Forecasting

Moving Averages Template

Moving Average
Periods of Moving Average =			3
MAD =	3174.3333333333
MAPE =	0.2736966144
Period	Actual	Forecast	Error	Tracking Signal
1	15908
2	15504
3	14272
4	13174	15228	-2054	-1
5	10022	14316.6666666667	-4294.6666666667	-2
6		12489.3333333333
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Actual 1 2 3 4 5 6 15908 15504 14272 13174 10022 Forecast 4 5 6 15228 14316.666666666666 12489.333333333334

Periods

2.1 Answers

EX2.1
Months	Visits	Naïve	3-MA	4-MA
July	2160
August	2186
September	2246
October	2251
November	2243
December	2162
January
	Answers
a.			January forecast
b.			January forecast using 3-MA
c.			January forecast using 4-MA
	In 1-2 sentences, explain which you explain which of the three results you have the most confidence in projecting accurately and why that is.
d.

Single Channel Template

Single Channel, Poisson Arrival, and Exponential Service Time (M/M/1)
Arrival rate	λ	4
Service rate	μ	5
Average Number of customers waiting for service	Lq	ERROR:#NAME?
Average Number of customers in the system (waiting or being served)	L	ERROR:#NAME?
Average time customers wait in line	Wq	ERROR:#NAME?
Average time customers spend in the system	W	ERROR:#NAME?
System utilization	ρ	0.8000
Service time	1/μ	0.2000
Probability of zero units in system	P0	ERROR:#NAME?
	n	3
Probability of 3 units in system	P3	ERROR:#NAME?

System Utilization 0.8

Wg 0 W 0

14.1 Answers

	EX14.1	Answers
A.	System Utilization
B.	Average Number in Line
C.	Average Time in Line
D.	Average Time in the System