Natural Disasters

O R I G I N A L P A P E R

Assessment of lightning-related fatality and injury risk in Canada

Brian Mills Æ Dan Unrau Æ Carla Parkinson Æ Brenda Jones Æ Jennifer Yessis Æ Kelsey Spring Æ Laurel Pentelow

Received: 4 October 2007 / Accepted: 12 December 2007 / Published online: 16 January 2008 � Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Abstract This article summarizes research completed to assess the risk of lightning-related injuries and fatalities in Canada. Although lightning mortality has declined significantly over

the past century, it remains a common meteorological hazard that regularly kills and injures.

Based on an analysis of media reports, vital statistics, hospital admission and emergency room

visit records, and fire loss data, the authors estimate that on average about 9–10 lightning-related

deaths and 92–164 injuries occur each year in Canada. The distribution of casualties reflects

current provincial population and cloud-to-ground lightning densities. Consistent with similar

studies in other developed nations, most lightning-related fatalities and injuries in Canada occur

during the June-August summer season, coincident with peak lightning, and during the

Thursday-Saturday period, most likely related to higher rates of participation in outdoor

activities. The majority of victims are male, less than 46 years old, and engaged in outdoor

recreational activities when injured or killed in a lightning incident. Media reports used in the

study were found to underestimate both lightning mortality (36%) and morbidity (20–600%).

The Canadian Government reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright.

B. Mills (&) � D. Unrau � L. Pentelow Adaptation & Impacts Research Division, Atmospheric Science & Technology Directorate, Environment Canada, c/o Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3G1 e-mail: [email protected]

C. Parkinson Faculty of Applied Health Sciences, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3G1

B. Jones Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON, Canada N2L 3G1

J. Yessis National Research Corporation, Markham, ON, Canada

K. Spring Environment Canada, Canadian Lightning Detection Network, Richmond, BC, Canada

123

Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183 DOI 10.1007/s11069-007-9204-4

Keywords Lightning � Injury � Death � Casualty � Thunderstorm � Canada

1 Introduction

The Meteorological Service of Canada issues approximately 14,000 warnings of severe

weather each year (MSC 2003). The bulk of warnings issued during the spring, summer,

and early autumn seasons are designed to alert the public to the development and imminent

arrival of severe thunderstorms and the potential for damaging winds, heavy rainfall, large

hail, and intense cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning.

With the development and implementation of the Canadian Lightning Detection Network

(CLDN) in 1998, Canadians now have basic systems in place to detect and monitor each of

these potentially deadly facets of severe weather. In fact, with several years of data, scientists

are generating lightning climatologies (e.g., Burrows et al. 2002) that parallel those for wind,

rainfall, tornadoes, and hail, and are developing methods to predict lightning occurrence as

part of a severe weather forecasting program (Burrows et al. 2005). Unfortunately, the

equivalent systems are not in place to continuously monitor and evaluate trends in the impacts

of severe weather in Canada—this is particularly evident for lightning-related injuries and

damage. Such information is critical for baselining and understanding the risks of lightning to

the general public and sensitive industries, sectors, and activities. It is also essential for

evaluating the effectiveness of monitoring and warning information and associated short- and

longer-term responses (i.e., immediate emergency response through to education programs).

By default, Environment Canada has relied upon relatively gross estimates of impact that are

difficult to independently verify or are based on outdated information (e.g., 6 deaths and 60–70

injuries annually, EC 2000; previously quoted 16 deaths and 100 injuries based on a national

study by Hornstein 1961). Relative to public health impacts, our understanding of damage is

better in certain economic sectors like forestry (e.g., forested area burned from fires caused by

lightning) and aviation, but composite pictures of national impact and trends remain elusive.

In response to this need, Environment Canada and university partners have begun

developing an assessment of the impacts of lightning in Canada. The broad goal of the

research is to improve understanding of the impact of lightning on Canadians in terms of

health, property damage, service interruptions, and associated economic implications. This

article summarizes progress made towards understanding the first and most important

impact in this list—the health implications of lightning. The first section of the article

introduces and characterizes the lightning hazard and profiles pathways to injuries 1

and

fatalities. Studies that have estimated lightning-related injury risk in Canada and elsewhere

are then reviewed leading into an empirical analysis where multiple datasets and approaches

are used to define new Canadian risk estimates. The article concludes with a summary and

discussion of results and recommendations for future applications and research.

1.1 Characterizing the lightning hazard

1.1.1 Physical characteristics

Lightning is a large static electrical discharge that develops most commonly within

thunderstorms where convection and gravitational forces combine with an ample supply of

1 The terms injuries and morbidity are used interchangeably throughout the paper. The term casualties

refers to the sum of injuries and fatalities.

158 Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183

123

particles to generate differential electrostatic charges. 2

When these charges achieve sufficient

strength to overcome the insulating threshold of the local atmosphere then lightning may

occur. In thunderstorms, this process results in an accumulation of positive charges towards

the top of clouds and an accumulation of negative charges in the cloud base region. The built-

up electrical potential is neutralized through an electrical discharge within or between clouds

(in-cloud lightning), or between the cloud and ground (CG lightning). Most CG lightning

involves a transfer of negative charge from the base region of a cloud to a positively charged

surface feature. A flash occurs once a leader from the base cloud region meets an upward

streamer emanating from the surface feature—the flash consists of one to several return

strokes that transfer the main current of the discharge. Less frequently the CG flash emanates

from the top or other positively charged region of the cloud and transfers a positive charge to a

negatively charged surface feature. Positive CG flashes often have a greater peak current,

transfer more charge, and may travel further than negative CG flashes (Rakov 2003). Positive

CG flashes are also relatively more common during the cold season, during the dissipating

phase of thunderstorms, and within severe thunderstorms (Rakov 2003; Murphy and Konrad

2005; Carey and Rutledge 2003; Price and Murphy 2002).

1.1.2 Lightning climatology

Historically, investigations into lightning climatologies have relied upon general weather

observations of thunderstorm occurrence (e.g., Phillips 1990). However, efforts within the

past 15 years have had the advantage of new ground and space-borne lightning detection

systems, tools, and datasets that have allowed for more comprehensive and in-depth

analyses. The CLDN, part of the larger North American (NALDN) and global network, is

an essential component of this new monitoring infrastructure. Data from the CLDN and

similar systems have been applied to understand lightning frequency and occurrence from

local to global geographic scales (Bentley and Stallins 2005; Burrows et al. 2002; Christian

et al. 2003; Clodman and Chisholm 1996; Hodanish et al. 1997; Murphy and Konrad 2005;

Orville et al. 2002; Stallins 2004; Tomas et al. 2004).

Canadian lightning researchers, using cloud-to-cloud and CG flash density data for the

1998–2000 period, observed that southern Alberta, southwestern Ontario, and areas off the

southern coast of Nova Scotia have the highest annual number of lightning days, while

western British Columbia, the Arctic, and the land areas east of New Brunswick have the

fewest (Burrows et al. 2002). When lightning occurs in Canada, it typically takes place

during the warm-weather months (May–October) and during the day. Many of the

observations by Burrows et al. (2002) are similar to the patterns identified by Orville et al.

(2002) in their study of a 3-year North American lightning dataset derived from the

NALDN. In general, greater frequency of lightning days and higher flash densities in

Canada coincide with more populous regions of the country.

2 Literature review

A literature review was conducted to identify Canadian and international studies that had

analyzed lightning-related fatalities and injuries. Additional clinical and epidemiological

2 Lightning is also associated with other phenomena where these same forces occur, including volcanic

eruptions and large forest fires.

Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183 159

123

research was assessed to provide an overview of the etiology of injuries associated with

lightning and information concerning the socio-demographic factors that influence

exposure.

2.1 Incidence of lightning mortality and injury

Lightning-related mortality and morbidity risks have been the focus of several studies in

the international scientific literature. Study locations, timeframes, counts of deaths and

injuries, mortality and injury rates (most often expressed per unit population), and primary

data sources for many of these investigations are summarized in Table 1. While most of

the literature concerning lightning-related casualties refers to studies conducted for the

United States, research has also been completed for Australia, Canada, France, Nether-

lands, Singapore, and the United Kingdom. Pakiam et al. (1981), Carte et al. (2002),

Aguado et al. (2000) and Coates et al. (1993) make reference to casualty estimates from

Austria, Germany, South Africa, Spain, and Zimbabwe, but sufficient detail was not

available to be incorporated into Table 1.

2.1.1 Data sources and reporting methods

While a variety of data sources are used to estimate lightning-related mortality and injuries,

most researchers have depended upon government health statistics (death certificates, vital

statistics or hospital discharge data) and newspaper articles. Many American studies rely

heavily on the US National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) Storm Data database which uses a combination of media references and reports from law enforcement

agencies, local government officials and others in documenting weather-related fatalities,

injuries, and property damage (NOAA 2006). A similar composite database for lightning-

related impacts is maintained by the TORnado and storm Research Organisation (TORRO)

in the United Kingdom (TORRO 2006). A few studies do not depend upon historical

observations or evidence of lightning strikes to humans. Szczerbiński (2003), relying upon

theoretical principles rather than empirical observations, estimated that the risk of being

struck directly by lightning for a person continuously exposed in the open would be once in

2000 years. Krider and Kehoe (2004) combined average CG flash density and statistical

principles to estimate nearest-strike distances and probabilities for any point in localized

regions. Regardless of data source, lightning casualties are reported and analyzed in dif-

ferent ways. National or state fatalities and injuries are most commonly reported as simple

counts over study periods and less frequently as a rate per year standardized either by

population or lightning incidence.

2.1.2 Fatalities

Despite differences in reporting methods, there is evidence of strong spatial and temporal

variation in lightning mortality. Gross national values range from as few as one fatality

over 40 years in Northern Ireland to over 20,000 deaths reported in the United States

between 1900 and 1991 (Baker 1984; Lopez and Holle 1998). Annual mortality rates,

expressed per million population, ranged from 0 in Alaska (1900–1991) to over six in the

United States as a whole in 1901 (Lopez and Holle 1998). Holle and Lopez (2003) estimate

160 Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183

123

T a b

le 1

S u

m m

a ry

o f

p u

b li

sh e d

e st

im a te

s o

f li

g h

tn in

g -r

e la

te d

d e a th

s a n

d in

ju ri

e s

A u

th o

r T

im e fr

a m

e L

o c a ti

o n

D e a th

s a n

d in

ju ri

e s

A n

n u

a l

m o

rt a li

ty ,

in ju

ry o

r c a su

a lt

y ra

te s

p e r

m il

li o

n p

o p

u la

ti o

n (u

n le

ss o

th e rw

is e

st a te

d )

D a ta

S o

u rc

e s

B a in

s a n

d H

o e y

(1 9

9 8 )

1 9

9 1 –

1 9

9 5

C a n

a d a

2 7

d e a th

s n

/a D

e a th

c e rt

ifi c a te

s (g

o v

e rn

m e n

t)

B a k

e r

(1 9

8 4 )

1 9

4 1 –

1 9

8 0

E n

g la

n d

a n

d W

a le

s 2

6 3

d e a th

s 7

.0 m

il li

o n

to o

n e

U n

k n

o w

n

B a k

e r

(1 9

8 4 )

1 9

5 1 –

1 9

8 0

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tl a n d

9 d

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s 1

7 .3

m il

li o

n to

o n

e U

n k

n o

w n

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e r

(1 9

8 4 )

1 9

5 4 –

1 9

6 9

Ir e la

n d

7 d

e a th

s n

/a U

n k

n o

w n

B a k

e r

(1 9

8 4 )

1 9

4 1 –

1 9

8 0

N o

rt h e rn

Ir e la

n d

1 d

e a th

5 7

.1 m

il li

o n

to o

n e

U n

k n

o w

n

C h e ri

n g

to n

(2 0

0 1 )

1 9

8 9 –

1 9

9 5

R o

c k

y M

o u n

ta in

s (C

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ra d

o )

3 9

d e a th

s n

/a N

e w

sp a p

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C o a te

s e t

a l.

(1 9

9 3 )

1 8

2 4 –

1 9

9 1

A u

st ra

li a

6 5

0 d

e a th

s 0

.0 8

p e r

1 0

0 ,0

0 0

(1 9

1 0 –

8 9

) 0

.0 1

p e r

1 0

0 ,0

0 0

(1 9

8 0 –

8 9

) N

e w

sp a p

e rs

, A

u st

ra li

a n

B u re

a u

o f

S ta

ti st

ic s

C u rr

a n

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a l.

(2 0

0 0 )

1 9

5 9 –

1 9

9 4

U n

it e d

S ta

te s

3 2

3 9

d e a th

s 0

.4 2

(0 .0

– 1

.8 8

, A

la sk

a -N

e w

M e x

ic o

) U

S N

O A

A S

to rm

d a ta

9 8 1 8

in ju

ri e s

1 .2

6 (0

.0 – 5 .7

4 ,

A la

sk a -W

y o m

in g )

D u

c lo

s e t

a l.

(1 9

9 0 )

1 9 7 8 – 1 9 8 7

F lo

ri d a

1 0 1

d e a th

s 0 .0

9 p e r

1 0 0 ,0

0 0

D e a th

c e rt

ifi c a te

s, a u to

p sy

re p o rt

s, F

lo ri

d a

H o

sp it

a l

C o st

C o

n ta

in m

e n

t B

o a rd

, U

S N

O A

A S

to rm

d a ta

, h

o sp

it a ls

4 4

in ju

ri e sa

(1 9 8 7 )

0 .5

4 c a su

a lt

ie sb

p e r

1 0

0 ,0

0 0

(1 9

8 7

)

te n

D u

is (1

9 9

8 )

1 9

1 0 –

1 9

9 5

N e th

e rl

a n

d s

6 0

2 d

e a th

sc n

/a U

n k

n o

w n

E ls

o m

(1 9

9 3 )

1 9

7 5 –

1 9

9 0

E n

g la

n d

a n

d W

a le

s 5

6 d

e a th

s n

/a O

ffi c e

o f

P o

p u

la ti

o n

C e n

su se

s a n d

S u

rv e y

s

E ls

o m

(2 0

0 1 )

1 9

9 3 –

1 9

9 9

U n

it e d

K in

g d

o m

2 2

d e a th

s 0

.0 5

T o

rn a d o

a n d

S to

rm R

e se

a rc

h O

rg a n is

a ti

o n

d a ta

b a se

(r e p o rt

s in

jo u

rn a ls

, n

e w

s m

e d

ia ,

v o

lu n

ta ry

th u n d e rs

to rm

o b se

rv e r

n e tw

o rk

)

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1 in

ju ri

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n /a

Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183 161

123

T a

b le

1 c o

n ti

n u

e d

A u

th o

r T

im e fr

a m

e L

o c a ti

o n

D e a th

s a n

d in

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n u

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m o

rt a li

ty ,

in ju

ry o

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y ra

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p e r

m il

li o

n p

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ti o

n (u

n le

ss o

th e rw

is e

st a te

d )

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S o

u rc

e s

F e rr

e tt

a n

d O

ja la

(1 9

9 2 )

1 9

5 9 –

1 9

8 7

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h ig

a n

8 1

d e a th

s n

/a U

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A S

to rm

D a ta

5 2

7 in

ju ri

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n /a

G ro

u b

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(1 9

9 9 )

1 9

7 9 –

1 9

9 6

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n c e

1 8

0 d

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s 0

.1 7

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sp a p

e rs

, p

h y

si c ia

n s,

su rv

iv o

r a c c o

u n

ts

H o

rn st

e in

(1 9

6 1 ,

1 9

6 2 )

1 9

3 9 –

1 9

5 8

C a n

a d a

3 2

0 d

e a th

s 1

.1 B

u re

a u

o f

G o

v e rn

m e n

t S

ta ti

st ic

s

L o

p e z

a n

d H

o ll

e (1

9 9

6 )

1 9

5 9 –

1 9

9 0

U n

it e d

S ta

te s

2 9

8 3

d e a th

s n

/a U

S N

O A

A S

to rm

D a ta

L o

p e z

a n

d H

o ll

e (1

9 9

8 )

1 9

0 0 –

1 9

9 1

U n

it e d

S ta

te s

2 0

7 5

8 d

e a th

s 0

.3 –

6 .3

(1 9

9 1 ,

1 9

0 1 )

B u re

a u

o f

th e

C e n

su s

a n

d P

u b

li c

H e a lt

h S

e rv

ic e

(m o rt

a li

ty a n d

v it

a l

st a ti

st ic

s) 8

2 3

3 in

ju ri

e s

n /a

L o

p e z

e t

a l.

(1 9

9 3 )

1 9

8 0 –

1 9

9 1

C o

lo ra

d o

3 6

– 5

1 d

e a th

sd n /a

C o lo

ra d o

D e p a rt

m e n t

o f

H e a lt

h (d

e a th

c e rt

ifi c a te

s) ,

U S

N O

A A

S to

rm D

a ta

, n e w

sp a p e rs

, C

o lo

ra d o

H o

sp it

a l

A ss

o c ia

ti o

n (d

is c h a rg

e d

a ta

)

4 6

– 8

2 in

ju ri

e se

(1 9

8 8 –

1 9

9 1

) n

/a

L o

p e z

e t

a l.

(1 9

9 5 )

1 9

5 0 –

1 9

9 1

C o

lo ra

d o

1 0

3 d

e a th

s n

/a U

S N

O A

A S

to rm

D a ta

2 9 9

in ju

ri e s

0 .1

c a su

a lt

ie sb

p e r

m il

li o n

p e o

p le

p e r

1 0

,0 0

0 k

m 2

N g

u y

e n

e t

a l.

(2 0

0 4 )

1 9

9 1 –

1 9

9 6

C a n

a d a

5 d

e a th

s (0

– 1

9 y

e a rs

) 0

.0 1

p e r

1 0

0 ,0

0 0

c h

il d

re n

0 –

1 9

y e a rs

o ld

P ro

v in

c ia

l a n

d te

rr it

o ri

a l

c o

ro n

e rs

o ffi

c e s,

C a n

a d ia

n H

o sp

it a ls

In ju

ry R

e p o rt

in g

a n d

P re

v e n ti

o n

P ro

g ra

m d

a ta

9 in

ju ri

e s

(0 –

1 9

y e a rs

) n

/a

162 Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183

123

T a

b le

1 c o

n ti

n u

e d

A u

th o

r T

im e fr

a m

e L

o c a ti

o n

D e a th

s a n

d in

ju ri

e s

A n

n u

a l

m o rt

a li

ty ,

in ju

ry o

r c a su

a lt

y ra

te s

p e r

m il

li o n

p o p u la

ti o n

(u n le

ss o th

e rw

is e

st a te

d )

D a ta

S o

u rc

e s

P a k

ia m

e t

a l.

(1 9

8 1 )

1 9

5 6 –

1 9

7 9

S in

g a p

o re

8 0

d e a th

s 1

.7 (1

9 6

1 –

7 9

) M

e te

o ro

lo g

ic a l

S e rv

ic e s

S in

g a p o

re ,

re p o

rt o

n R

e g

is tr

a ti

o n

o f

B ir

th a n

d D

e a th

s, M

in is

tr y

o f

H e a lt

h ,

n e w

sp a p

e rs

S h

e a rm

a n

a n

d O

ja la

(1 9

9 9 )

1 9

7 8 –

1 9

9 4

M ic

h ig

a n

3 9

– 4 7

d e a th

sf n

/a U

S N

O A

A S

to rm

d a ta

, M

ic h ig

a n

D e p

a rt

m e n

t o

f P

u b li

c H

e a lt

h (d

e a th

c e rt

ifi c a te

s, h o sp

it a l

d is

c h

a rg

e re

c o

rd s)

2 0

3 – 2

4 6

in ju

ri e sg

n /a

a E

st im

a te

d b

C a su

a lt

ie s

a re

th e

su m

o f

re p

o rt

e d

d e a th

s a n

d in

ju ri

e s

c E

st im

a te

b a se

d o n

F ig

. 1

in a rt

ic le

d V

a ri

e d

b y

so u

rc e

(3 6

-U S

N O

A A

S to

rm d

a ta

, 5

1 -C

o lo

ra d

o D

e p

a rt

m e n

t o

f H

e a lt

h )

e V

a ri

e d

b y

so u

rc e

(4 6

-C o

lo ra

d o

H o

sp it

a l

A ss

o c ia

ti o

n d

is c h

a rg

e d

a ta

, 8

2 -U

S N

O A

A S

to rm

D a ta

) f

V a ri

e d

b y

so u rc

e (3

9 -U

S N

O A

A S

to rm

d a ta

, 4 7 -M

ic h ig

a n

D e p a rt

m e n t

o f

H e a lt

h )

g V

a ri

e d

b y

so u

rc e

(2 0

3 -M

ic h

ig a n

D e p

a rt

m e n

t o

f H

e a lt

h ,

2 4

6 -U

S N

O A

A S

to rm

D a ta

)

Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183 163

123

an annual mortality rate of about six per million population in less-developed nations (e.g.,

countries in southern Africa, South and Central America, Southeast Asia)

Contemporary fatality rates in most developed nations over the past 30 years are much

lower, typically between 0.1 and 1 death per million, than those reported for the early to mid-

1900s. Elsom (2001) observed a trend toward fewer lightning fatalities in England and Wales

over the past century and suggested it was partly due to the concurrent patterns of fewer

people working outdoors in open fields, the expansion of urban areas, improved weather

forecasts that have enabled people to plan activities that avoid being outside during a thun-

derstorm, and improved responses by medical staff. In the United States, a ten-fold reduction

in the population-weighted rate of lightning-caused deaths over the last century has been

hypothesized to be the result of a decrease in the percentage of the population living in rural

areas and changes in construction (e.g., plumbing, heating and electrical systems that

effectively ground structures) (Holle et al. 2005). Adekoya and Nolte (2005) suggested that

this decline is also the result of individuals being more aware of risks, greater adoption of

appropriate precautions, and an improved medical response to lightning victims.

A few studies have standardized fatalities by lightning occurrence and limited results

also indicate the presence of spatial patterns. Curran et al. (2000) estimated a rate of 1

death per 345,000 CG lightning strikes in the United States and Elsom (2001) reported a

value of 1 death per 100,000 CG strikes in England and Wales.

2.1.3 Injuries

Injury and casualty counts and rates are reported less frequently and are less consistent

across jurisdictions than fatalities which, by definition, should be easier to document and

track. In general, more injuries occur than fatalities, with injury-to-fatality ratio estimates

ranging from 1:1 (Pakiam et al. 1981) to 16:1 (Elsom 2001). Trends toward higher injury-

to-fatality ratios are also likely due to improved medical science and response among both

health professionals and the public—many of those who would have been killed are now

saved but still injured. These factors may also partially explain the disparity between

reductions in injuries and fatalities as reported in a 1959–1990 study by Lopez and Holle

(1996). No doubt the capacity and ability to identify, report, and monitor injuries have

improved over this period as well thus resulting in more injuries being included in the tally.

2.1.4 Underreporting

Underreporting and lack of standard casualty definitions are recurrent themes acknowl-

edged in several of the international studies (Holle et al. 2005; Curran et al. 2000,

Shearman and Ojala 1999; Lopez et al. 1993; Coates et al. 1993; Duclos et al. 1990) and

appear to be more problematic for injuries than fatalities. Sources that rely on newspapers

are limited by the coverage of papers relative to the geographic scope of the study, the

‘‘newsworthiness’’ or relevance of a particular lightning incident relative to other stories,

the availability or limitations of electronic or catalogue searches, and the reliability of

sources (e.g., public vs. emergency official accounts). Official government health agency

sources may be constrained by misinterpretation of World Health Organisation (WHO)

International Classification of Diseases (ICD) coding and reporting errors (i.e., miscoding

victim presentations) or improper assignment of place of death or injury (e.g., some

sources report only on death by place of residence). Hospitalization records may be

164 Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183

123

sample-based (i.e., only include a subset of hospitals) and by definition do not account for

non-admitted victims whose injuries are treated at the scene of a lightning incident, in an

emergency room, or by a family physician.

A few researchers have attempted to estimate the extent of underreporting by evaluating

data from multiple sources. Analyses into the accuracy of Storm Data have been performed in comparison with state or federal mortality data. The general consensus of these studies is

that the Storm Data underestimates the number of lightning-related deaths compared with death certificate data. The exact figures vary from state to state but typically the mortality

underestimation ranges between 17% and 33% (Holle et al. 2005; Shearman and Ojala

1999; Lopez et al. 1993).

2.2 Injury mechanisms and factors influencing exposure

A brief review of the etiology of injuries associated with lightning is a useful background

to interpret the empirical analysis results that are presented later in the article. Studies by

health scientists and others have investigated lightning injuries and injury profiles at the

individual and population scales. The former has lead to the development of several

inventories or taxonomies of injuries while the latter yields important information about

socio-demographic factors that influence exposure.

2.2.1 Injury mechanisms

Several pathways have been identified through which lightning may directly or indirectly

injure an individual (Lewis 1997; Walsh et al. 2000; Cooper et al. 2001; Cooray et al. 2007):

1) Direct hits, most often to the head, result in the most serious injuries, and usually occur to people standing out in the open.

2) Contact voltage occurs when current enters the body via objects touching a person (e.g., golf club, umbrella, phone).

3) Splash or flashover voltage refers to a situation where lightning strikes an object (e.g., tree) and then arcs to an adjacent person. In some splash voltage cases the discharge

results in multiple casualties.

4) Step voltage involves current striking the surface and fanning out through the ground. Depending on environmental conditions, the orientation of an individual, and distance

from the strike, the path of least resistance may take the current from the ground

through the body thereby causing an injury. Multiple casualties may also result from

step voltage incidents.

Some researchers have speculated that a fifth mechanism exists, equally or more

important than the four listed, in which a person may be electrocuted in the upward

streamer phase of lightning development (Anderson 2001; Cooper 2002).

Many injuries associated with lightning are caused by secondary mechanisms. For

instance, blunt trauma injuries may be sustained by persons after being thrown by the force

of the shock wave produced by lightning or by muscle contractions caused by the current

(Zafren et al. 2005). Rapid vaporization of water in vegetation from the intense, concen-

trated heat of a lightning flash may literally explode tree limbs and bark which may then

become projectiles that can initiate blunt trauma. Even less direct but still relevant are

injuries associated with fires that were ignited by lightning.

Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183 165

123

The clinical literature contains several references to the presentation, treatment, cate-

gorization, and analysis of lightning-related injuries (e.g., Andrews 2006; Aslan et al. 2004,

2005; Sommer and Lund-Andersen 2004; Courtman and Wilson 2003; Carte et al. 2002;

Cooper 2001; Cooper et al. 2001; Cooray et al. 2007; Duff and McCaffrey 2001; Muehl-

berger et al. 2001; van Zomeren et al. 1998; Zack et al. 1997). The most severe injuries are

related to the cardiac system with cardiopulmonary arrest being the most frequent cause of

death (Cooper 1980; Lewis 1997; Zafren et al. 2005). The short duration of contact with

lightning current is often attributed by researchers as the reason why many other injuries,

including paralysis, resolve within a short period without extensive intervention (Lewis

1997). Long-term or permanent physical injuries among lightning-strike survivors, although

infrequent, include neurological damage and associated chronic pain, hearing loss, burn

scars, and cataracts (Lewis 1997; Cooper et al. 2001; Zafren et al. 2005). Psychological

impacts, most commonly neurocognitive deficits, attention deficit, memory problems, post-

traumatic stress syndrome, depression, phobias, and irritability, have also been identified or

examined by a few researchers (e.g., Cooper 2001; Cooper et al. 2001; Duff and McCaffrey

2001; Muehlberger et al. 2001; Gatewood and Zane 2004; Andrews 2006).

2.2.2 Factors influencing exposure

Past research has revealed a number of situational and population characteristics that

influence exposure. These factors, identified through analyses of those injured or killed,

provide insight into the ‘‘when, where and what’’ features of lightning casualty incidents.

An individual’s risk of being struck by lightning has been shown to vary by time of

year, week, and day. Summer is the peak season for lightning occurrence in mid-latitude

locations and, not surprisingly, is also when most lightning-related injuries and fatalities

occur. The months of June to August account for nearly 70% of the total lightning strike

incidents in the United Kingdom (Elsom 2001) while most lightning fatalities in Australia

occur between November and February (i.e., during the Southern Hemisphere summer)

(Coates et al. 1993). In the United States, casualties occur almost entirely between May

and August with a monthly maximum in July (Lopez et al. 1995; Curran et al. 2000). With

respect to day-of-week patterns, Curran et al. (2000) reported that 24% more lightning

deaths occur on Sunday than on any other day of the week in the United States, with

Wednesday being the next most common. This most likely relates to the activity and

exposure factors noted in the next section. Regarding time of day, the majority of casualties

in the United States occur during the afternoon and early evening from 1200 to 1800 hours,

again generally coincident with maximum thunderstorm development and lightning inci-

dence (Lopez and Holle 1998; Curran et al. 2000).

Geographic and socio-demographic influences are interrelated at a variety of scales. At

a macro level, the frequency of CG lightning occurrence and population density in par-

ticular regions intuitively play a significant role in exposure—more people and more

lightning equates to greater potential that an individual might be struck. As illustrated in

Fig. 1, annual North American CG lightning flash densities are greatest in the Gulf States.

Two of these states—Florida and Texas—experience the greatest absolute number of

lightning casualties each year (Adekoya and Nolte 2005). Lightning injuries are also

relatively frequent in other southern states, the Rocky Mountains, Midwest, and along the

Atlantic coast where the greatest number of thunderstorms occur (Lewis 1997). When

normalized for population density, injury rates are highest in the Rocky Mountain and

Plains states (Cooper et al. 2001). Of the 27 deaths reported in Canada from 1991–1995,

166 Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183

123

11 occurred in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, 6 in the Prairies, 3 in the Maritimes, and 1 in British

Columbia (Bains and Hoey 1998). This pattern is consistent with lightning occurrence and

population density in Canada which are both greatest in Ontario.

Changes in the proportion of population living in rural and urban areas also seem to be

related to macro-level shifts in lightning casualties. Rural (urban) regions accounted for

76% (24%) of all lightning fatalities reported in the United States during the 1890s but only

46% (54%) during the 1990s (Holle et al. 2005). This observation likely reflects changes in

occupation and exposure (i.e., less time spent in unprotected rural areas) in addition to the

influence of urbanization.

Several studies have observed patterns in the demographic characteristics of those struck

by lightning, including gender and age. Typically, it is younger men who account for the

majority of lightning strike victims. In the UK, Elsom (2001) reported that males were struck

more often than women (65% male and 35% female) and that the average age was 30 years

(median 26). Similarly, males accounted for 84% of lightning fatalities and 82% of injuries in

an American study based on Storm Data for the years 1959–1994 (Curran et al. 2000). Among the 27 lightning deaths reported in Canada from 1991–1995, men, 15–50 years of

age, were much more likely to be killed (Bains and Hoey 1998). In a study that investigated

work-related lightning injuries based on data from the Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries

(CFOI) (1995–2000), workers 20–44 years of age accounted for 67% of deaths and all but

two of those killed were male (Adekoya and Nolte 2005). The population-level association

between age or gender and casualties is founded in a social preference for particular activities

that lead to increased outdoor exposure rather than any medical predisposition to injury.

While Elsom (2001) noted in a UK study that 52% of lightning incidents affected people

Fig. 1 North American average annual cloud-to-ground lightning flash density, 2000–2004 (Vaisala 2006)

Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183 167

123

while they were indoors, none were fatal. Similarly, in other studies, the vast majority of fatal

incidents occur in outdoor environments, a pattern that has held throughout the past century,

but one in which the chief activities have shifted from being occupation- to recreation-based

(Pakiam et al. 1981; ten Duis 1998; Holle et al. 2005).

Different outdoor activities entail different levels of risk. In a Colorado study, the two

activities that accounted for the most number of lightning victims were recreation (52%)

and employment (25%) (Lopez et al. 1995). Specific to work, the most predominant work

activities that have been reported are construction (25%) and material handling (e.g.,

loading and unloading) (12%) (Adekoya and Nolte 2005). According to an analysis of

Storm Data for the years 1959–1994, the activities most commonly engaged in while being struck by lightning were, in order: open fields, ballparks, and playgrounds; under trees;

water-related activities (e.g., fishing, boating, swimming); golfing; operating tractors, farm

equipment, and heavy road equipment; on the telephone; and touching a radio, transmitter

or antenna (Curran et al. 2000). The distribution of fatality locations/activities in the UK

study by Elsom (2001) showed similar results.

3 Empirical analysis of Canadian data

On the basis of the literature review results and apparent lack of a recent and substantive

national study, an empirical analysis was conducted to assess the fatality and injury risks

associated with lightning in Canada. The study examined several distinct but readily

available sources of mortality or morbidity information: national and provincial vital

statistics, hospital admission data, emergency room visitation data, fire loss data, and

Canadian media/newspaper reports. The data and related analyses are described below in

three subsections: (1) analysis of official Canadian mortality and injury data, (2) analysis of

Canadian media reports, and (3) derivation of composite fatality and injury risk estimates

based on all of the data sources examined.

3.1 Analysis of official Canadian mortality and injury data

Official government or other standardized sources of data serve as the basis for many of the

international studies discussed in the literature review. As noted in Table 1, many

researchers investigating lightning-related fatalities utilize official vital statistics collected

by government agencies or industry-recognized organizations. The official data used in the

Canadian case study, summarized in Table 2, were obtained from Statistics Canada (2006),

the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) and the Council of Canadian Fire

Marshals and Fire Commissioners (CCFMFC).

3.1.1 Fatalities based on vital statistics

Data for all deaths caused by lightning for the period 1921–2003 were obtained from

Statistics Canada. The data, disaggregated by province and gender (except for 1950–64,

1999–2003), refer only to lightning-related deaths as defined by various editions of the

International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code and its predecessors (WHO 2006).

Indirect or secondary fatalities, such as those caused by fires ignited by lightning, are

excluded from the vital statistics dataset. The provincial disaggregation is by place-of-

168 Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183

123

T a

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t 1

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Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183 169

123

residence and not by the province where the incident occurred. It is assumed for this

analysis that, in most cases, the two are the same.

A total of 999 lightning fatalities were identified in the official vital statistics dataset

between 1921 and 2003. Five-year running average counts and mortality rates are pre-

sented in Fig. 2. As observed in studies for other developed nations, the number of

fatalities in Canada has dropped substantially over the past century, from a maximum

5-year average of 26 deaths (1931–35) to a minimum 5-year average of 3.4 (1999–2003).

Interestingly, the data suggest that deaths increased slightly during the mid- to late-1990s

to about 4–5 deaths per year on average. Since the downward trend in absolute fatalities is

superimposed on a steadily increasing population, a steeper decline is observed for mor-

tality rates than for fatality counts. Five-year average fatality rates per million population

reached a maximum of 2.4 for the period 1931–35 while the lowest rate, 0.11, was

observed for 1999–2003. U.S. lightning mortality rates based on similar vital statistics data

reported in Lopez and Holle (1998, p. 3) are consistently higher than those in Canada,

largely due to greater occurrence of lightning in the U.S.

In terms of gender, about 84% of all lightning fatalities since 1921 (excluding 1950–64)

were male and the remaining 16% were female. These relative proportions were similar at

the beginning and end of the 1921–2003 period. Table 3 indicates the distribution of

lightning fatalities by Canadian province (available until 1999) both in absolute and rel-

ative terms for two periods, 1921–99 and 1994–99. Over the full period of record, greater

than 90% of all deaths occurred in Ontario, Quebec, and the three Prairie provinces

(Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba). No lightning mortality was reported in Canada’s

northern territories. Although the absolute numbers are different, a similar geographic

distribution in lightning mortality is evident during the 1994–99 period.

3.1.2 Injuries based on CIHI data

For injuries, a few studies have analyzed hospital admissions data (Table 1) which are

typically provided by public health authorities or hospital associations. For this case study,

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

F a ta

li ti

e s

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

F a ta

li ty

r a te

p e r

m il li o

n p

o p

u la

ti o

nFatalities Canadian Rate US Rate

Fig. 2 Five-year moving average of Canadian lightning deaths and Canadian and U.S. mortality rates, 1921–2003 (Statistics Canada, vital statistics; U.S. rates based on Lopez and Holle 1998, p. 3)

170 Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183

123

hospital admissions data from the National Trauma Registry (NTR) were obtained from the

Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) for all reporting acute care hospitals

during the 1999–2003 fiscal years (i.e., April 1-March 31). Since the literature acknowl-

edges that many minor injuries go unreported, data were also requested from CIHI for

emergency room (ER) visitation as documented in the National Ambulatory Care Registry

System (NACRS). Unfortunately these data were available only for the province of Ontario

for two fiscal years (2002–03). As with the fatality statistics, the NTR and NACRS data

were extracted only for injuries that were ICD-coded for lightning.

The hospital admission and emergency room visitation data are compiled by fiscal year

in Table 4. Between April 1, 1999 and March 31, 2004, acute care hospitals admitted 100

lightning victims. Five of these victims received major trauma while two others later died

in hospital (to avoid double-counting, fatalities are not included in the injury tabulations).

Two important observations are apparent from Table 4. First, there is considerable inter-

annual variation in hospital admissions. Second, lightning-related emergency room visits

occurred more frequently than hospital admissions—at 56, the two-year average for

Table 3 Distribution of lightning deaths by province (Statistics Canada, vital statistics)

1921–99 a

1994–99 2004

Fatalities % of total Fatalities % of total Population (thousands)

% of total

British Columbia 16 1.7 0 0.0 4,201.9 13.2

Alberta 107 11.6 5 13.5 3,204.8 10.0

Saskatchewan 133 14.4 2 5.4 994.3 3.1

Manitoba 78 8.5 2 5.4 1,170.2 3.7

Ontario 316 34.2 17 46.0 12,407.3 38.8

Quebec 206 22.3 10 27.0 7,547.7 23.6

New Brunswick 39 4.2 1 2.7 752.1 2.4

Prince Edward Island 2 0.2 0 0.0 137.9 0.4

Nova Scotia 24 2.6 0 0.0 937.5 2.9

Newfoundland and Labrador 2 0.2 0 0.0 517.3 1.6

Nunavut, Northwest, and Yukon Territories

0 0.0 0 0.0 103.5 0.3

Canada 923 100.0 b

37 100.0 b

31,974.4 100.0 b

a Excludes 1959–64, 2000-present period where provincial breakdown was unavailable

b Numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding

Table 4 Lightning injuries requiring emergency room treat- ment and admission to hospital, 1999–2003 (ICD-9 E907 and ICD-10 X33, CIHI 2006)

a Does not include those who

later died in-hospital b

Ontario only; does not include those received in ER and later admitted to hospital

Fiscal Year NTR Hospital Admissions (cases)

a NACRS Emergency Room Visitation

b

1999 33 n/a

2000 30 n/a

2001 7 n/a

2002 16 59

2003 12 52

Annual Average 20.0 55.5

Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183 171

123

Ontario alone is 2.5 times greater than all reported admissions in Canada. If it is assumed

that the geographic distribution of injuries is proportional to that of deaths over the 1994–

99 period (Table 3), then an estimated 121 lightning-related emergency visits per year

might have occurred nationally during 2002–03.

3.1.3 Injuries and fatalities based on CCFMFC fire statistics

In an effort to probe the significance of indirect casualties, specifically those related to

property fires, data were acquired from annual reports of the Council of Canadian Fire

Marshals and Fire Commissioners (CCFMFC). The reports contain detailed tables on

fatalities, injuries, and estimated property damage values associated with fires in Canada.

The data pertain to all incidents responded to by local government fire departments and

include variables for injuries and fatalities, stratified by the source of ignition (igniting

object). Within this category, lightning is classified as the only example of ‘‘no igniting

object’’. Standardized reporting protocols and coding for all variables are documented in

CCFMFC (2002).

Although a small proportion of all fires, the CCFMFC data presented in Table 5 suggest

that lightning-ignited blazes are a significant overlooked component of lightning-related

mortality and morbidity. At 2.9 deaths per year, annual mortality is of comparable mag-

nitude to that reported in the vital statistics over the same period. Approximately 76% of

adults killed were male—gender was unspecified for 12 children and one unknown victim.

While no firefighters were killed in fires ignited by lightning, they comprised about one-

third of all reported injuries. On average, 15.4 people were injured each year and

approximately 80% of the victims were male (not including firefighters, children or

unspecified victims).

Table 5 Deaths and injuries associated with fires ignited by lightning, 1986–2001 (CCFMFC 2006)

Fires ignited by lightning

% of all fires

Deaths % of all fire deaths

Injuries % of all fire injuries

1986 469 0.69 3 0.54 16 0.41

1987 595 0.89 1 0.19 17 0.44

1988 437 0.62 3 0.60 14 0.39

1989 563 0.84 6 1.20 29 0.77

1990 1125 1.67 2 0.43 18 0.48

1991 1194 1.75 0 0.00 19 0.55

1992 816 1.25 2 0.52 19 0.49

1993 574 0.87 3 0.72 24 0.69

1994 956 1.43 4 1.06 19 0.54

1995 2428 3.78 13 3.25 23 0.65

1996 408 0.68 3 0.80 7 0.22

1997 1157 2.06 2 0.48 25 0.79

1998 412 0.72 0 0.00 9 0.33

1999 362 0.66 4 1.03 2 0.09

2000 361 0.67 1 0.31 2 0.08

2001 387 0.70 0 0.00 4 0.17

Total 12244 1.21 47 0.70 247 0.47

172 Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183

123

3.1.4 Limitations of official statistics

As discussed in the literature review, official vital statistics and injury data are subject to

several limitations. Most importantly for the intended application in this analysis, the data

only provide a partial picture of lightning-related fatalities and injuries in Canada. This is

primarily due to the limitations of the ICD code definition (i.e., only direct causes) but also,

particularly in the case of morbidity, due to incomplete spatial or temporal coverage. Time

and budget constraints limited analysis of less serious injuries that do not require ER

treatment or hospitalization (e.g., family physician visits) which might contribute to a more

complete assessment of health impact. As well, the vital statistics used in the case study are

not disaggregated beyond year, province, gender, and age. As such they provide little

insight into activity patterns and finer-scaled geographic or temporal factors that contribute

to exposure and impact. While further investigation using the underlying coroners’ reports

is possible, time constraints prevented their incorporation into the current analysis.

3.2 Analysis of Canadian media reports

Media reports were another primary source of data used in this case study to estimate

fatality and injury risks associated with lightning in Canada. Media information can be a

valuable source of quantitative and qualitative data about hazard extent and impact.

Newspaper reports have been used to chronicle the occurrence of hazard events (Hewitt

and Burton 1971; Jones 1993; Charlton et al. 1995; Isben and Brunsden 1996; Downton

et al. 2005; Tarhule 2005), to estimate frequencies and return periods (Cutter et al. 2000;

Downton et al. 2005; Schuster et al. 2005), and to monitor trends in damages (Dore 2003).

Newspaper and media accounts provide the foundation for two national natural disaster

databases, the Canadian Disaster Database published by Public Safety Canada and Storm Data published in the United States by NOAA.

3.2.1 Data and methods

In this analysis, newspapers were used to identify deaths and injuries in Canada attributed

to lightning. Factiva, an online searchable worldwide database of major newspapers was

the primary source of media articles. The database provided comprehensive, up-to-date

coverage of major daily Canadian newspapers (e.g., Globe and Mail, Toronto Star,

Winnipeg Free Press, Calgary Herald), and it contained a considerable temporal archive

(20+ years). Previous studies involving media analysis suggest that major daily newspapers

may underreport lightning events (Lopez et al. 1993), particularly in rural and smaller

urban areas. To address this issue, four additional online databases that provided links to

various community newspapers were also used in this study (Toronto Star Group, Canada’s

Community Newspaper Association, Ontario Community Newspaper Association, and

Quebec Community Newspaper Association). The length of archived material in com-

munity newspapers ranged from as little as seven days to as long as 21 years. Newspaper

web directories (Yahoo and dmoz) were also accessed to search newspapers not listed in

other databases.

Through the use of keyword searches in the various newspaper databases and archives,

injuries, and deaths were identified and recorded. Specifically, the term ‘lightning’, either

individually or in conjunction with an impact (i.e., death, injury) or activity (e.g., fire, golf,

Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183 173

123

camping) qualifier, was used to search the headline, leading paragraphs, and/or full text of

published newspaper articles in each archive. The terms ‘foudre’ and ‘éclair’ were used to

identify relevant articles when French language newspapers were part of the archived

database.

The data from applicable archived media reports varied in detail, accuracy, and extent,

however, each story and applicable derived information were input into a lightning inci-

dent database. Database variables or fields included casualty characteristics (i.e., age,

gender), location (city and province), prevailing activity at time of incident (e.g., golfing,

camping, working), and extent of injury where available. Deaths and injuries were included

if the individual was directly struck by lightning; received contact, splash or step voltage;

or if they incurred blunt trauma or other injuries related to the lightning flash. Where

possible, the source of information contained in the article (i.e., witness/victim account,

police/fire/emergency official, etc.) was also recorded.

3.2.2 Estimates of mortality and morbidity

The online newspaper databases used in this study permitted access to 460 searchable

newspaper archives. Most of the newspapers were from the provinces of Ontario (207

newspapers), Quebec (67 newspapers), and Alberta (50 newspapers). The search yielded

131 independent articles that documented 53 lightning-related deaths and 277 injuries

between 1986 and 2005. Given the limited availability of searchable archives (and thus

relevant stories), results prior to 1994 were not included in the analysis of trends or

averages in total casualties. Annual estimates of injury and mortality for the 1994–2005

period are presented in Fig. 3. It is estimated that on average, 3.5 people were killed and

16.4 people injured annually between 1994 and 2005. These figures translate into a

national casualty rate of 0.65 and a mortality rate of 0.11 per million population. The

substantial inter-annual variability (5–39 injuries) is partly attributable to a few instances

of multiple injuries from single lightning incidents (e.g., one event in 1994 resulted in over

10 injuries).

In addition to temporal variability in the number of lightning-related deaths and injuries,

the media reports highlighted variation in the geographic distribution of casualties. Over

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1994

F a

ta li

ti e

s

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

In ju

ri e

s

Fatalities Injuries

Fig. 3 Media-based estimate of lightning-related deaths and injuries in Canada, 1994–2005

174 Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183

123

60% of deaths and 65% of injuries occurred in Ontario, while very few or none were

reported for the provinces of Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island or the Yukon,

Nunavut, and Northwest Territories. The results seem consistent with the small populations

and limited lightning activity observed in these jurisdictions; however, the low counts in

Quebec (2 deaths, 21 injuries) and New Brunswick (1 death, 0 injuries) point to potential

underreporting issues given historic lightning activity (see Fig. 1) and population relative

to Ontario. This can be partly attributed to the limited extent of many searchable Quebec

newspaper archives (often two weeks or less).

3.2.3 Population and activity-related characteristics

Socio-demographic information contained in the media reports suggest that the typical

lightning victim in Canada is male and between the ages of 16 and 45. In total, 72% of

deaths and 77% of injuries reported in the media were male—results that are similar to

those documented in American and Australian studies (Lopez et al. 1995; Coates et al.

1993). Based on media reports where the age of victim was discernible, most deaths (66%)

and injuries (78%) occurred among people under the age of 46 (Table 6).

The use of newspaper articles in this study also permitted examination of the monthly

and day-of-week distributions of lightning-related mortality and morbidity. As illustrated

in Fig. 4, most lightning-related deaths ([94%) and injuries (*74%) occurred during the summer months, while no fatalities were reported during the October-April period. Total

mortality was evenly distributed across the summer months, but slightly more people were

killed per lightning incident during June. Relative to fatalities, lightning-related injuries

were reported in a greater number of months (7). Large peaks were apparent for both total

injuries and injuries per incident during July when compared to other months.

The media reports also indicated that Canadians are more likely to be killed or injured

by lightning on or near a weekend (Fig. 5). Relative to other days, more deaths occurred on

Saturdays (26%) while injuries were most prevalent on Fridays (27%). The Thursday-

Saturday period accounted for almost 55% of all fatalities and over 70% of all injuries,

likely reflecting higher rates of participation in outdoor activities during weekends and

holidays.

Table 6 Age distribution of lightning-related deaths and injuries, 1986–2005 (media analysis)

Age Deaths Injuries

Count Percentage of total a

Count Percentage of total a

\16 6 11.3 (14.6) 12 4.3 (17.1) 16–30 10 18.9 (24.4) 21 7.6 (30.0)

31–45 11 20.8 (26.8) 22 7.9 (31.0)

46–60 8 15.1 (19.5) 10 3.6 (14.2)

[ 60 6 11.3 (14.6) 5 1.8 (7.1) Unknown 12 22.6 207 74.7

Total 53 100.0 b

277 100.0 b

a Numbers in parentheses refer to percentage of known deaths or injuries

b Numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding

Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183 175

123

Information was also obtained to determine the activities that the casualties were

engaged in when they were struck by lightning (Table 7). Outdoor recreation pursuits

accounted for over 70% of victims killed and over 62% of injuries, with camping and

hiking being the most common activity. Golfing, picnicking, and boating were also pre-

valent. Although the number of incidents was small, the results support findings from other

studies that field sports, such as soccer and baseball, are often associated with multiple

casualty incidents (Cherington 2001). The location where the lightning incident occurred

also informs our understanding of exposure. For those events where location information

was available in the media reports, the bulk of fatalities (68%) and injuries (68%) occurred

to people who were in open areas or to those taking shelter under trees.

3.2.4 Limitations of the media report analysis

While newspapers are a valuable source of hazard information, it is important to

acknowledge that media analyses are subject to a number of limitations. Care must taken to

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

P e

rc e

n t

Fatalities Injuries

Fig. 4 Monthly distribution of lightning-related deaths and injuries, 1986–2005 (media analysis)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

P e rc

e n

t

Fatalities Injuries

Fig. 5 Day-of-week distribution of lightning-related deaths and injuries, 1986–2005 (media analysis)

176 Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183

123

consider bias in reporting when using newspapers, as the amount of print coverage tends to

vary with an event’s ‘newsworthiness’, which could be defined by the size of the event,

where the event occurs (e.g., rural community, urban centre) (Isben and Brunsden 1996;

Tarhule 2005), or the focus/readership of the newspaper (Dymon and Boscoe 1996). The

limited number of newspaper articles about lightning-related deaths and injuries in western

and eastern Canada found in this study could be reflecting this bias.

Another limitation of media analysis is that access to and quantity of online information

varies over time. Extensive online newspaper databases tend to capture newspapers with

larger readerships, in part for economic reasons. As readership of non-archived newspapers

increase or they are taken over by media conglomerates, online databases are often updated

to reflect new newspaper sources. Such changes in quantity of newspapers available in an

online database can influence the number of related articles, which can indirectly influence

trend analyses. This pattern is partially reflected in the 131 newspaper articles about

lighting-induced deaths and injuries used in this study. In each of the five-year periods

since 1986, the number of deaths and injuries increased—1986 to 1990 (7 deaths; 40

injuries), 1991 to 1995 (15 deaths; 69 injuries), 1996 to 2000 (15 deaths; 87 injuries), and

2001 to 2005 (16 deaths; 80 injuries).

3.3 A composite picture of lightning-related casualties

3.3.1 Fatalities

A composite picture of lightning-related fatalities, constructed using comparable time-

frames, is presented in Table 8. The media-based data generally underreported fatalities

relative to the vital statistics, by about 36% over 1994–2001, which is consistent with U.S.

Table 7 Distribution of lightning-related deaths and injuries by activity, 1986–2005 (media analysis)

Activity Deaths Injuries

Count % of total a

Per Incident Count % of total a

Per Incident

Golf 4 7.5 (8.3) 1.0 29 10.5 (11.3) 1.9

Camp/Hike 11 20.8 (22.9) 1.1 47 17.0 (18.4) 3.6

Picnic 5 9.4 (10.4) 1.7 11 4.0 (4.3) 2.2

Boating 8 15.1 (16.7) 1.1 18 6.5 (7.0) 1.6

Soccer 1 1.9 (2.1) 1.0 11 4.0 (4.3) 11.0

Baseball 1 1.9 (2.1) 1.0 28 10.1 (10.9) 9.3

Other Sport c

4 7.5 (8.3) 1.0 15 5.4 (5.9) 2.5

Work 3 5.7 (6.3) 1.0 41 14.8 (16.0) 2.3

In Home 4 7.5 (8.3) 2.0 24 8.7 (9.4) 1.6

In Shelter 1 1.9 (2.1) 1.0 7 2.5 (2.7) 3.5

Other 6 11.3 (12.5) 1.0 25 9.0 (9.8) 1.8

Unknown 5 9.4 1.0 21 7.6 1.8

Total 53 100.0 b

277 100.0 b

a Numbers in parentheses refer to percentage of known deaths or injuries

b Numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding

c Other sport includes cycling, equestrian, tennis

Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183 177

123

studies (Holle et al. 2005; Shearman and Ojala 1999; Lopez et al. 1993). However, in

1995, there were more fatalities reported in the media than in the official statistics.

Although information was not readily available that would permit comparisons of indi-

vidual fatalities, it is reasonable to assume that the maximum number of fatalities reported

by either source in a given year is the better estimate. Secondary fatalities associated with

lightning-ignited fires are by definition excluded from both the vital statistics and, after

reviewing the circumstances of each death, casualties reported in the media database. Thus

it is possible to directly add the CCFMFC fatalities to the maximum of the other sources to

obtain a more representative count of lightning-related fatalities. The resulting estimate of

9.5 deaths per year (1994–2001) translates into a fatality rate of 0.32 per million

population.

3.3.2 Injuries

A composite picture of lightning-related injuries is more difficult given greater discrep-

ancies in the reporting periods for various data sources. The summary provided in Table 9

allows for some comparisons though. As with fatalities, injuries associated with lightning-

ignited fires may be added to either the media-based figures or the combined hospital

admission/ER visitation counts. Based on the media data and fire statistics, 30.9 people on

average were injured in lightning-related incidents each year from 1994 to 2001. However,

comparison with the CIHI hospital admission data reveals a gross underreporting in the

media database—at least 20% over 1999–2003. When ER data are added for 2002–03,

media-based counts underestimate injuries by almost 600%. The combined CIHI hospital

admission and ER records yield an average lightning-related morbidity of 69.5 per year

(2002–03) though this figure ignores injuries associated with fires ignited by lightning and

only includes ER data for Ontario. About 11.4 injuries per year were reported in the fire

statistics (1994–2001). Results from the media analysis indicate that Ontario accounted for

40% of national injuries during 2002–03 and about 70% of injuries over a longer time-

frame (1994–2003). Assuming that these relative proportions hold true for ER admissions,

one derives an inflated national estimate of 91.7–164.2 lightning-related injuries per year.

This translates into a rate of 3.3–5.2 injuries per million population.

Table 8 Composite estimate of lightning-related deaths in Canada, 1994–2001

Media-based Vital statistics

Maximum CCFMFC fire statistics

Total a

Rate (per million population)

1994 7 11 11 4 15 0.52

1995 7 6 7 13 20 0.68

1996 1 3 3 3 6 0.20

1997 3 6 6 2 8 0.27

1998 5 7 7 0 7 0.23

1999 4 4 4 4 8 0.26

2000 2 3 3 1 4 0.13

2001 6 8 8 0 8 0.26

Average 4.4 6.0 6.1 3.4 9.5 0.32

a Maximum of media-based and vital statistics plus CCFMFC statistic

178 Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183

123

4 Summary

Lightning is a common meteorological hazard in Canada that regularly kills and injures.

Based on an analysis of media reports, vital statistics, hospital admission and ER records,

and fire loss data, the authors estimate that on average about 9–10 lightning-related deaths

and 92–164 injuries occur each year in Canada. Lightning mortality has declined signifi-

cantly over the past century. Vital statistics show that lightning mortality has fallen from a

peak of 2.4 deaths per million population over 1931–35 to 0.11 deaths from 1999–2003.

This observation is consistent with trends in other developed countries. Over 90% of

lightning deaths reported in vital statistics since 1921 have occurred in Ontario, Quebec,

Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba. With the exception of B.C., where few deaths have

been recorded, the distribution of fatalities reflects current provincial population and CG

lightning frequencies. The analysis of media reports indicates that most lightning-related

fatalities (94%) and injuries (74%) occur during the June–August summer season. The

Thursday-Saturday period accounted for almost 55% of all fatalities and over 70% of all

injuries, most likely related to higher rates of participation in outdoor activities. A majority

of victims are male, less than 46 years old, and engaged in outdoor recreational activities

when injured or killed in a lightning incident. Media reports used in the study were found

to underestimate lightning mortality by 36% when compared to vital statistics. Injuries

were underreported by 20–600% relative to hospital statistics depending on the level of

severity included in the analysis. Fires ignited by lightning are important secondary sources

of lightning-related casualties accounting for about three deaths and 15 injuries per year

from 1986–2001. Although casualty counts and rates are most often reported annually and

normalized by population, both exposure and the physical hazard are concentrated in space

(geographic, demographic, activity) and time.

Care should be taken when interpreting these estimates. They are derived from multiple

sources using different protocols and definitions. Equally important, they are based on a

relatively small number of deaths and injuries with large variation between years and

Table 9 Composite estimates of lightning-related injuries in Canada, 1994–2003

Media-based CIHI NTR (hospital admissions)

CIHI NACR (Ontario emergency room visitation)

CCFMFC Fire statistics

1994 39 – – 19

1995 9 – – 23

1996 18 – – 7

1997 21 – – 25

1998 8 – – 9

1999 23 33 – 2

2000 17 30 – 2

2001 21 7 – 4

2002 5 16 59 –

2003 15 12 52 –

1994–2003 average 17.6 n/a n/a n/a

1994–2001 average 19.5 n/a n/a 11.4

1999–2003 average 16.2 20.0 n/a n/a

2002–2003 average 10.0 14.0 55.5 n/a

Nat Hazards (2008) 47:157–183 179

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among jurisdictions. While the composite picture produces larger estimates of lightning-

related fatality and injury risk than those based on a single source, the absolute and relative

risks remain very small when compared to other causes of mortality or major trauma.

Influenza, HIV/AIDS, falls, and motor vehicle collision mortality rates are 1–3 orders of

magnitude greater than lightning-related fatality rates estimated in this study (Statistics

Canada 2005). Similarly for morbidity, less than 0.5% of 9,313 major injuries in 2001–02

were caused by natural and environmental factors, including lightning (CIHI 2003).

Although the relative risks may be small compared to chronic disease or other forms of

injury, exposure to lightning and thus the potential risk of injury are very discrete and

concentrated in terms of vulnerable activities, locations, and time. This concentration

makes the lightning hazard more ‘potent’ than annualized per capita estimates might

suggest and, more importantly, allows one to target public risk-reduction strategies,

information, and programs. As well, when compared to other meteorological events the

average annual number of deaths and injuries related to lightning is significant—only about

two people are killed in tornadoes each year in Canada (Etkin et al. 2001). This relative

risk should be acknowledged and considered in the planning of public weather-related

hazard programs. In terms of future research, further analysis of injury and fatalities at the

storm level is warranted to discern additional finer-scaled risk patterns or associations

between lightning and exposure (Lengyel et al. 2005, provide a useful example applica-

tion). Over time the focus in this work should shift from baseline risk assessment toward

the monitoring and evaluation of specific risk or damage prevention measures, including

those that relate to safety (e.g., Zimmermann et al. 2002) and expanded or enriched use of

CLDN data.

Acknowledgments The authors wish to thank the following people for contributing data or reviewing elements of this research: Philippa Gourley Canadian Council of Fire Marshals and Fire Commissioners, Ron Holle Vaisala Inc., Leona Hollingsworth Canadian Institute for Health Information, Abdel Maarouf Environment Canada, Scott McFarlane University of Waterloo, and David Phillips Environment Canada. Constructive comments from the anonymous reviewers are also greatly appreciated.

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