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222 CHAPTER 8 DECIDING THE COURSE OF ACTION EXERCISES
• History 201 U.S. History: Civil War to Present, 3 hours
• Art 203 Photography, 3 hours
• Geology 101 Introductory to Geology, 3 hours
• Music 205 Piano Performance, 2 hours
Music 101 involves a significant amount of time outside of class listening to classi- cal music. The student reaction to the class has been mixed; some students learned what to listen for in a symphony, while others did not. The teacher for this class is knowledgeable but boring.
Art 101 has the students learning the names of the great masters and how to recog- nize their works. The lecturer is extremely boring and you must go to class to see the slides of the great art works. While the course write-up looks good, it misses the mark in developing a real appreciation of art. However, it is quite easy to get a rela- tively good course grade.
History 201 has an outstanding lecturer that makes history come alive. However, the lecturer is a hard grader and C is certainly the median grade. In addition, the outside reading and homework are enormous. While some students say the workload is equivalent to a five-hour course, most all say they learned a great deal from the course and plan to continue the interest in history they developed during this course.
Art 203 teaches the fundamentals of photography. However, equipment and film for the course are quite expensive. Most of the time spent on the course is outside of class looking for artistic shots. The instructor is very demanding and bases his grade on artistic ability. Some students say that no matter how hard you work, if you don't develop a "photographic eye," you might not pass the course.
Geology 101 has a moderately interesting lecturer and there is a normal level of homework assignments. There are two major out-of-town field trips that will require you to miss a total of one week of class during the term. The average grade is B and there is nothing conceptually difficult or memorable about the course.
Music 205 requires you to pass a tryout to be admitted. While you only spend half an hour a week with your professor, many, many hours of practice are required. You must have significant talent to get a C or better.
Prepare a K.T. decision analysis table to decide which course to enroll in.
8.10. "The Centralia Mine Fire": Centralia, Pennsylvania, a small community situated in the Appalachian mountain range, was once a prosperous coal-mining town. In 1962, in preparation for the approaching Memorial Day parade, the landfill of Centralia was set afire in order to eliminate odors, paper buildup, and rats. Unfor- tunately, the fire burned down into the passageways of the abandoned mine shafts under the town. Although repeated efforts were made to stop the blaze, the fire
could not be put out. By 1980, after burning for 18 years, the fire had grown in size
to nearly 200 acres, with no end in sight.
Mine fires are especially difficult situations because they are far below the surface
of the earth, burn very hot (between 400°F and 1000°F), and give off both toxic and
explosive gases, as well as large volumes of steam when the heat reaches the water
table. Anthracite coal regions have very porous rock, and consequently, a signifi-
cant amount of combustion gas can diffuse directly up through the ground and into
people's homes. Subsidence, or shifting of the earth, is another serious condition
arising from the fire. When the coal pillars supporting the ceilings of mines' pas-
sageways burn, large sections of earth may suddenly drop 20 or 30 feet into the
ground.
Clearly, the Centralia mine fire has very serious surface impact and must be dealt
with effectively. Several solutions to the mine fire are described below. Perform a
K.T. decision analysis to decide which option is the most effective method to deal
with the fire. Consider such issues as cost, relocation of the residents of Centralia,
and potential success of extinguishing the fire.
Solution Options
A. Completely excavate the fire site. Strip-mine the entire site to a depth of 435 feet, dig-
ging up all land in the fire's impact zone. This would require partial dismantling of
Centralia and nearby Bymesville for upward of 10 years, but available reclamation
techniques could restore the countryside after this time. This method guarantees
complete extinction at a cost of $200 million. This cost includes relocation of fami-
lies, as well as the restorative process.
B. Build cut-off trenches. Dig a trench to a depth of 435 feet, then fill it with a clay-based
noncombustible material. Behind the trench, the fire burns unchecked but is con-
tained by the barrier. Cost of implementation would be about $15 million per 1000
feet of trench, and total containment of the fire would require approximately 7000
feet of trench. Additionally, partial relocation of Centralia would be required for three
years, costing about $5 million.
C. Flood the mines. Pump 200 million gallons of water per year into the mine at a cost of
$2 million annually for 20 years to extinguish the fire. Relocation of the townspeople
is not necessary, but subsidence and steam output should be considered, as well as the
environmental impact and tradeoffs of the large quantities of acidic water produced
by this technique.
D. Seal mine entrances to suffocate the fire. Encase the entire area in concrete to seal all
mine entrances, then allow the fire to suffocate due to lack of air. This would require
short-term relocation of the town and its outlying areas, and suffocation itself would
probably take a few years, owing to the large amount of air in the shafts and in the
ground. Although this method has never been attempted, the cost is estimated to be
about $100 million.
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mines to extinguish the blaze. The cost for this method would be on the order of $100 million. Relocation may be necessary.
R Do nothing. Arrange a federally funded relocation of the entire area and allow the fire to burn unchecked. Approximately $50 million would be required to relocate the town.
This problem was developed by Greg Bennethum, A. Craig Bushman, Stephen George, and Pablo Hendler, University of Michigan, 1990.
8.11. "Solvent Body Wipe Problem": When painting a new automobile it is essential that the exterior surface is clean. Any impurities present when the paint is applied will severely degrade the quality of the paint finish. Consequently, line operators use solvent-moistened wipes to clean the surface of each vehicle body before it enters the paint booth.
Current body wipe operations at one of the Big Three auto companies can be sum- marized as follows. The operator soaks a new, dry body wipe (a white synthetic cloth about 1 foot square) in an open bath of solvent. There is a small amount of spillage and evaporative solvent loss from the bath. After wringing out any excess solvent, the operator wipes down the exterior of the vehicle body. The operator then disposes of the wipe in a drum and moistens a new wipe for the next vehicle. Because the wipes in the drum still contain significant amounts of solvent—a hazardous and possibly toxic substance--the drum is sealed when it becomes full and is sent to a hazardous waste landfill. The safety officer has expressed concern about the level of operator exposure to the toxic solvent fumes.
This cleaning operation must be applied to each vehicle body as it moves along a conveyor belt from the assembly shop into the paint booth. Depending on demand, the production rate may require painting up to 80 bodies per hour. When defects in the paint job are found, the body must be taken offline for spot repairs or complete repainting. If a large percentage of bodies have paint defects, then production of the entire plant can be diminished as repaint jobs backup at the paint shop.
Upper-level management has decided to open another plant that will also require body wipe operations. Due to more stringent environmental, health, and safety regulations for new plants, the liquid hazardous waste must be reduced without slowing production. If possible, management would also like to make other improvements to the current method of cleaning.
Problem: What is the best body wipe method to adopt in the new plant? Engineering proposed four alternative methods which are summarized below:
1. Use each wipe on more than one vehicle. This alternative requires less effort by the operators since they do not need to moisten a wipe as often. Less solvent is applied per vehicle. Not only are the additional operational costs of this alternative
..".."w ,.."...," mow, W.I. solvent, and waste wipes are also sigma-
candy decreased. However, there is a small chance that reusing wipes would leave
impurities on the vehicle and cause the paint coat to crater. While a few vehicles
with impurities would not slow production, many vehicles would.
2. Recycle. This option requires expensive additional equipment to wash the wipes and
recover solvent. The amount of solvent applied to each vehicle would remain the
same but consumption of virgin raw materials would be decreased moderately.
Disposal of waste wipes and solvent would be decreased moderately as well.
However, this process should be monitored closely as recycled wipes would likely
deteriorate after a number of washings and leave lint on the vehicle, thereby causing
paint defects.
3. Incinerate used body wipes. With this option, the energy value of the spent wipes can
be partially recovered. In addition, the need for disposing of hazardous waste is
totally eliminated. It is possible, but unlikely, that the ash will need to be sent to a
landfill as nonhazardous waste. With incineration, there are no changes in the actual
wiping process; the option is completely "end-of-pipe." Therefore, solvent usage
will be unaffected. Incineration is moderately expensive.
4. Use a closed-top bath. The solvent bath would be covered with a lid that the operator
would remove each time he soaks a rag. This option would cut down on solvent
evaporative losses and spillage from the bath, both of which management desires.
However, the amount of solvent applied to each vehicle would stay the same.
Management gives only moderate weight to the actual amount of hazardous waste
diverted from the landfill and to decreasing raw material usage and minimizing
operator effort. The degree of workplace safety hazards (an extremely important
consideration) is influenced weakly by the amount of solvent stored on-site, which
in turn is influenced by the amount of solvent applied to each vehicle. The addi-
tional operating cost of the new method would also be a major consideration.
Finally, management wants the adverse consequences of the top two options to be
addressed, especially the negative impacts on product quality—a very serious issue.
Carry out a K.T. decision analysis to select a method to wipe the cars.
8.12. You need energy for an upcoming sports competition. You have the following
candy bars available to choose from: Snickers, Milky Way, Mars Bar, Heath Bar,
and a granola bar. Which do you choose? Prepare a K.T. decision analysis table.
8.13. Prepare a K.T. decision analysis table on selecting an apartment to move into next
year. Consult your local newspaper to learn of the alternatives available.
Potential Problem Analysis
8.14. "Sandy Beach": There was a minor oil spill on a small sandy resort beach. The CEO
of the company causing the beach shoreline to be soiled with oil said, "Spare no
expense, use the most costly method, steam cleaning, to remove the oil from the sand."
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8.15. "Laboratory Safety":‘ The procedure in a chemistry laboratory experiment called for the students to prepare a 1.0 dm' aqueous solution of 30 g of sodium hydroxide. By mistake, the student used 30 g of sodium hydride dispersion, which reacted violently with water, evolving heat and hydrogen gas, which caught fire. The sodium hydride, which was available for a subsequent experiment, was a commer- cial product. The container bore a warning of the hazard of contact with water, but this warning was not visible from the side showing the name of the compound.
Carry out a potential problem analysis that, if followed, would have prevented this accident.
Adapted from ICE Prevention Bulletin, December 1991, 102, p. 7.
8.16. "Safety in the Plant": A reactor approximately 6 feet in diameter and 20 feet high in an ammonia plant had to be shut down to repair a malfunctioning nozzle. The nozzle could be repaired only by having a welder climb inside the reactor to carry out the repair. During welding, the oxygen concentration was regularly monitored. Four hours after the welding was completed, a technician entered the reactor to take pictures of the weld. The next day he was found dead in the reactor.
Prepare a potential problem analysis table that could have prevented this accident. Adapted fromlCEPrevention Bulletin, December 1991, 102, p. 27.
8.17. "New Chicken Sandwich": Burgermeister has been serving fast-food hamburgers for more than 20 years. To keep pace with the changing times and tastes, Burger- meister has been experimenting with new products in order to attract potential customers. Product development has recently designed a new Cajun chicken sand- wich to be called Ragin' Cajun Chicken. The developers have spent almost nine months perfecting the recipe for this new product.
One of the developers got the idea for a new product while in New Orleans during last year's Mardi Gras. Product Development has suggested that the sandwich be placed on Burgermeister's menu immediately, in order to coincide with this year's Mardi Gras festivities. A majority of the time spent developing the Ragin' Cajun Chicken sandwich was dedicated to producing an acceptable sauce. Every recipe was tasted by the developers, who found early recipes for sauces to be too spicy. Finally, they agreed on the seventy-eighth recipe for sauce (Formula 78) as the best choice.
After converging on a sauce, the Development team focused on preparation aspects of the new sandwich. Several tests confirmed that the existing equipment in Burger- meister restaurants could not be used to prepare Ragin' Cajun Chicken. Instead, a new broiler would have to be installed in each of the 11000 Burgermeister restau- rants, at a cost of over $3000 per unit. The new broiler would keep the chicken moist while cooking it, as well as killing any salmonella, the bacteria prevalent in chicken.
salmonella. Tests aetermtnea mat the source of the bacteria was a set of tongs mar
the developer used to handle both the raw and the cooked chicken.
Next, the Development team decided how the sandwich would be prepared. When
the Ragin' Cajun Chicken sandwich was prepared using buns currently used for
other Burgermeister sandwiches, the sandwich received a very low taste rating.
After experimenting, researchers found that a Kaiser roll best complemented the
sandwich. Early cost estimates showed that Kaiser rolls will cost twice as much as
the buns used currently for hamburgers, and are fresh half as long.
You are an executive in charge of product development for Burgermeister. Based on
the information above, perform a potential problem analysis, considering what
could go wrong with the introduction of this new sandwich.
Developed in collaboration with Mike Szachta, University of Michigan, 1992.
8.18. Carry out a KTPPA for each of the following situations:
A. A surprise birthday party.
B. A camping trip in the mountains.
C. The transportation of a giraffe from the Detroit Zoo to the Los Angeles Zoo.
D. An upcoming laboratory experiment.
E. The transport of nuclear waste from the reactor to the disposal site.
FURTHER READING
Keith, Lawrence A. "Report Results Right!" Parts 1 and 2, Chemtech, p. 351, June 1991, and
p. 486, August 1991. Guidelines to help prevent drawing the wrong conclusions from
your data. Kepner, C. H., and B. B. Tregoe. The New Rational Manager. Princeton Research Press,
Princeton,
NJ, 1981. Many more worked examples of the K.T. strategy.
