Economic Rise of China and India

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3._demography_and_missing_women.pptx
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ECON 2213 3. Demography and Missing Women

Demographic transition

The term “demographic transition” refers to the transition from high to low fertility rates (birth rates) and from high to low mortality rates (death rates).

In a pre-industrial society, fertility rates are high since many children are needed to work in agriculture and there is no family planning; death rates are high because of disease, famine, and poor knowledge of medicine.

Demographic transition

As medical knowledge and sanitation improve, the death rate falls, both for older people and for children.

Over time, the birth rate also falls; since child mortality is lower, fewer children are needed in order to ensure a proper number of farm workers.

In a modern industrial society, the birth rate and death rate are both low. The birth rate is low because of family planning, later marriage, and the improved status of women; the death rate is low because of improved health, improved medical care, and a reliable food supply.

Demographic transition

The rate of population growth increases in the middle of the demographic transition, and then falls at the end of the transition.

The number of workers in the labour force also grows, with a lag.

During the demographic transition, there is a change in the age structure of the population: the ratio of the economically-active (i.e., working-age) population to the total population will first fall (as more children and elderly survive), then rise (as the birth rate falls), then fall.

There may therefore be a transitional effect on growth.

Demographic transition

The transition in Europe and other now-industrial countries occurred during the 19th century. By now, in some countries, the birth rate has fallen below the death rate.

The transition in Asia did not start until the mid-20th century but it has been a faster transition process than in Europe, as Asia has been able to import health practices (e.g., sanitation) and health technologies (e.g., penicillin).

Germany Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 17.3 17.899999999999999 17.8 18.100000000000001 18 17.399999999999999 17.2 16.5 15.7 14.7 13.4 12.9 11.5 10.3 10.200000000000001 9.9 10.200000000000001 10.3 10.4 10.5 11.1 11 11 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.2 11.4 10.4 10 9.8000000000000007 9.5 9.4 9.7000000000000011 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.3000000000000007 8.9 8.7000000000000011 8.6 8.6 8.3000000000000007 8.2000000000000011 8.3000000000000007 8.3000000000000007 8.1 Germany Death rate, crude (per 1,000 people) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 12 11.6 11.9 12 11.6 12 11.9 11.9 12.6 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.1 12.6 12.3 11.9 12.2 12.1 12. 2 12.2 12 12 11.8 12 11.9 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.4 11 11.1 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.200000000000001 10.1 10.200000000000001 10.3 9.9 10.1 10 10.1 10.3 10.4

India Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 41.267000000000003 40.946999999999996 40.644000000000005 40.361000000000004 40.099000000000011 39.846999999999994 39.591000000000001 39.315999999999995 39.015000000000001 38.689 38.349000000000004 38.010999999999996 37.692000000000213 37.4 37.134 36.887999999999998 36.645000000000003 36.388999999999996 36.106000000000002 35.791000000000011 35.446999999999996 33.9 33.800000000000004 33.700000000000003 33.9 32.9 32.6 32.200000000000003 31.5 30.6 30.2 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.7 28.3 27.5 27.2 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.4 25 24.8 24.1 23.8 23.5 23.1 22.8 22.5 India Death rate, crude (per 1,000 people) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 21.228000000000002 20.658999999999999 20.099 19.547999999999988 19.010000000000005 18.485999999999841 17.978000000000002 17.484000000000002 17.003 16.535 16.077999999999999 15.627999999999998 15.183 14.745999999999999 14.319000000000004 13.91 13.524000000000001 13.169 12.848000000000001 12.56 12.306000000000004 12.5 11.9 11.9 12.6 11.8 11.1 10.9 11 10.3 9.7000000000000011 9.8000000000000007 10.1 9.3000000000000007 9.3000000000000007 9 8.9 8.9 9 8.7000000000000011 8.5 8.4 8.1 8 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4

China Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 198 9 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20.86 18.02 37.01 43.37 39.14 37.879999999999995 35.050000000000004 33.96 35.590000000000003 34.11 33.43 30.650000000000031 29.77 27.93 24.82 23.01 19.91 18.93 18.25 17.82 18.21 20.91 22.279999999999987 20.190000000000001 19.899999999999999 21.04 22.43 23.330000000000005 22.37 21.58 21.06 19.68 18.27 18.09 17.7 17.12 16.979999999999986 16.57 15.639999999999999 14.639999999999999 14.03 13.38 12.860000000000024 12.41 12.29 12.4 12.09 12.1 12.139999999999999 12.129999999999999 China Death rate, crude (per 1,000 people) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 25.43 14.239999999999998 10.02 10.040000000000001 11.5 9.5 8.83 8.43 8.2100000000000009 8.0300000000000011 7.6 7.3199999999999985 7.6099999999999985 7.04 7.34 7.3199999999999985 7.25 6.87 6.25 6.21 6.34 6.3599999999999985 6.6 6.9 6.8199999999999985 6.78 6.8599999999999985 6.72 6.64 6.54 6.67 6.7 6.64 6.64 6.49 6.57 6.56 6.51 6.5 6.46 6.45 6.4300000000000024 6.41 6.4 6.42 6.51 6.81 6.9300000000000024 7.06 7.08

Demographic transition

Government intervention also plays a role, as with the one-child policy in China.

The one-child policy, introduced in 1978, restricts couples to having only one child.

Exceptions:

Rural residents, if the first child is a girl.

Ethnic minorities.

Parents who are only children.

The rationale for the policy was to reduce the birth rate. It is controversial due to reportedly draconian enforcement measures, such as infanticide and forced abortion. It is possible for parents to pay fines upon the birth of a second child; the fines vary by province.

"It is forbidden to discriminate against, mistreat or abandon baby girls."

Bloom, David E. and Jeffrey G. Williamson, “Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia,” World Bank Economic Review 12:3 (1998), 419-455.

Bloom and Williamson (1998)

Sen, Amartya, “More than 100 Million Women are Missing,” New York Review of Books 37:20 (1990).

The fall in the birth rate in China and India has not been experienced equally between boys and girls; rather, the birth rate has fallen more for girls.

If parents want to have fewer children (either due to economic reasons or to government pressure), they often would prefer to have a boy rather than a girl.

The availability of ultrasound technology has made sex-selective abortion more common (even though it is illegal in both China and India).

The result is a higher ratio at birth of boys to girls than would be found in nature.

Sen (1990)

Worldwide, the ratio of boys to girls at birth is 1.06, that is, around 106 boys for every 100 girls.

According to the UN, in 2005, the ratio was:

117 in China

108.5 in India

Boys per 100 girls Azerbaijan China Armenia Bosnia and Herzegovina India Montenegro Suriname Serbia Singapore 118.62396204033216 116.95906432748538 114.41647597254004 110.37527593818903 108.45986984815617 108.45986984815617 108.22510822510822 107.29613733905578 107.06638115631634

Sen (1990)

How can we estimate the number of missing women?

Differences in the ratio of men to women are the result of differences in the ratio at birth and differences in mortality rates. With unbiased health conditions and equal nutrition, male mortality rates are higher at every age.

In a stationary population, the ratio should be close to 1, although it will be different for countries with different age structures.

Sen (1990)

Even if the sex ratio at birth is unbiased, there could be higher female than male child mortality if girls are not given the same nutrition or health care as boys.

Sen estimates that 100 million women are missing; these estimates are based on ratios of men to women that exist in Europe and North America (1.05 women per man).

Coale (1991) uses a ratio based on past fertility and mortality, and comes up with a lower number of 60 million.

Das Gupta, Monica, Jiang Zhenghua, Li Bohua, Xie Zhenming, Woojin Chung and Bae Hwa-Ok, “Why is Son Preference So Persistent in East and South Asia?,” Journal of Development Studies 40:2 (2003), 153-187.

Qian, Nancy, “Missing Women and the Price of Tea in China,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 123:3 (2008), 1251-1285.

Edlund, Lena, Hongbin Li, Junjian Yi and Junsen Zhang, “Sex Ratios and Crime: Evidence from China,” mimeo (2012) (forthcoming in Review of Economics and Statistics).

Jensen, Robert and Emily Oster, “The Power of TV: Cable Television and Women’s Status in India,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 124:3 (2009), 1057-1094.

Caste

Caste refers to a system of social stratification based on heredity.

In India, caste has historically determined an individual’s occupation, but since Independence, the Indian government has attempted to lessen the effects of the caste system.

The Indian constitution forbids discrimination based on caste.

A certain percentage of political offices is reserved for the lowest castes (“Scheduled” castes).

Beaman, Lori, Esther Duflo, Rohini Pande, and Petia Topalova, “Female Leadership Raises Aspirations and Educational Attainment for Girls: A Policy Experiment in India,” Science 335:6068 (2012), 582-586.