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Research Paper Presentation

Jennifer L. Spade

English 102

May 5, 2004

Topic & Thesis Selection

  • Topic: Federal Reserve Board rate action.
  • Topic Selected: March 31, 2004; political & educational interests; no change.
  • Thesis: The Fed Reserve Board should wait to increase bank rates until we see a sustainable job growth above 200,000 for a 6-month composite plus other strong economic indicators.
  • Thesis Selected: April 7, 2004; political & economic interests; no change.

Research Paper Structure

  • Introduction: Fed rates, from Wall St. to Main St.
  • Narration: job growth & inflation = rate increases.
  • Partition: March job growth could be a “false start,” we need to wait for sustainable numbers.
  • Argument: prior Fed actions had real job growth & inflation; not there yet.
  • Refutation: sharp rises in rates due to quick rise in inflation; no due to low wages & high productivity.
  • Conclusion: Fed has time to wait for real jobs #’s.

Major Arguments

  • Raising rates prematurely could derail the economy
  • Stunt job recovery
  • Reduce capital investment & hiring
  • Cool the red-hot housing market
  • Slow consumer spending, thereby reducing GDP
  • Negatively impact emerging (global) economies
  • Decreased consumer confidence
  • Inflation is still low - Fed has time to wait (August)?

Major Opposing Arguments

  • Economic indicators strong; jobs & retail sales but inflation is rising, act now with minor increases

Response: March job growth could be a “false start.” Waiting a few months to make certain will provide solid evidence of the health of the U.S. economy.

  • Waiting too long could cause sharp rate increases - lessons from past (1994)
  • 7 fed fund rate increases in 12 months (3% to 6%)
  • Too aggressive; crushed financial markets

Response: we don’t want to repeat actions taken in 1994, but the economic conditions are not comparable -- productivity is strong, and wages are flat -- both requiring time to adjust.

Source Analysis

Most Helpful

  • BusinessWeek
  • Associated Press
  • Fed Chair testimony: 5/4
  • April jobs report - to be released 5/7 - crucial

Least Helpful

  • Older publications
  • Books

Research Lessons Learned

  • Select a topic not as fluid as Fed rate actions; daily assessments of data can invalidate claim
  • Survey consumers for personal impact of claim
  • Began draft sooner

Interesting Discoveries

  • In researching the economic conditions and the Fed actions, I feel confident in my understanding of the subject matter and challenges faced by Greenspan and Fed policymakers when trying to keep the U.S. economy in balance.
  • Using a systematic approach to writing a research paper decreased the likelihood of me being overwhelmed and increased my chances of finishing it.

Research Timeline

Sheet1

Assignment Hours Days
1 Topic Selection and Proposal 2 2
2 Single Source Summary & Analysis 3 1
3 Annotated Bibliography 13 14
4 Formal Outline 7 3
5 Presentation 4 2
6 Rough Draft(s) Pending Pending
7 Final Draft Pending Pending

Sheet2

Sheet3

When Fed Chair Alan Greenspan speaks, we listen!

Good news for now, no change in Fed rates.

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AssignmentHoursDays

1Topic Selection and Proposal 22

2Single Source Summary & Analysis31

3Annotated Bibliography 1314

4Formal Outline73

5Presentation42

6Rough Draft(s)PendingPending

7Final DraftPendingPending