The data below represent the call volumes over 16 quarters from a call center at a major financial institution. Develop a forecasting model ...

     

Problem 1 

 

The data below represent the call volumes over 16   quarters from a call center at a major financial institution. Develop a   forecasting model for the volume of calls (in 000 units).

          

Volume of Calls to Center (in 000 calls)

 

Year

Quarter 1

Quarter2

Quarter 3

Quarter4

 

2011

200

100

190

105

 

2012

240

95

250

110

 

2013

260

120

265

115

 

2014

300

140

280

150

          

1. Estimate the quarterly seasonal indices. 

 

2. Using the quarterly seasonal indexes you developed in   number 1, deseasonalize the quarterly sales for the years 2011 to 2014. 

 

3. Create a time series graph showing : 

 

a. the actual number of calls, by quarter, from 2011 to 2014

 

b. the deseasonalized quarterly number of calls for the same   time period, and 

 

c. the trend line of the deseasonalized number of calls. Show in your graph the trend line as well   as the linear equation of that trend line.

 

Label the graph   completely and accurately

 

4. Using the trend equation you developed in number 3, give your   seasonally adjusted forecast for the number of calls the center is expected   to receive during the four quarters of 2016. 

 

5. Discuss what the consequences will be for the call center if   they simply used the trend forecasting model developed in #3c, without   adjusting for seasonality (e.g. if they fail to adjust the trend forecast for   seasonality) of the calls. In your   discussion, address any important decisions, related to their operations,   that they might make wherein the forecast information will be critical.