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Worksheet1.docx

Worksheet 1 Reality and Science

1. Describe 5 ways in which scientific efforts is a good way to accurately understand reality.

2. Describe 3 things about science that makes it untrustworthy regarding accuracy about reality.

3. Define and explain why each of the following often make humans wrong about reality and their predictions. Describe what it is about science described above that minimizes these weaknesses.

a. Overconfidence

b. Belief Bias

c. Confirmation Bias

d. Representative Heuristic

e. Availability Heuristic

f. Belief Perseverance

g. Ecological Fallacy

4. As humans, we use “ inductive reasoning” to turn what we observe in reality into our understanding of reality within our minds; and in doing so, we have no alternative but to turn reality into CONCEPTS (words). Additionally, we have no choice but to use CONCEPTS (words) to describe and convince others of what is REAL. Discuss a challenge or two where having to turn reality into words makes it difficult for scientists to be accurate about understanding and describing reality “ deductive reasoning”.

5. Describe how a “Quantitative” approach to trying to understand reality has different challenges of being accurate about reality than a “qualitative” approach.

Below is depiction of an aggregate of humans. The variable “sex” with the attributes of “male” or “female” and the frequencies of male and female.

image3.png

image4.png

image1.png

image5.png

image2.png

ScientificMethods.pptx

Lesson Objectives

Appreciate:

Biases and Overconfidence

Science’s Goals

Major concepts of research

Concepts

Variables

Attributes

Aggregates

Frequencies

Relationship

Causality

Purpose of Research

Reasoning

Qualitative vs Quantitative

Review

It’s so hard to believe in anything anymore…Religion…seems so mythological and so arbitrary; and on the other hand, science is just pure empiricism and by virtue of its method excludes metaphysics…

I guess I wouldn’t believe in anything if it wasn’t for my

lucky, astrology mood watch.

-- Steve Martin

Steve, I would have to agree. It’s just hard to believe in.

It’s hard to believe in religion (metaphysical)

It’s hard to believe in empiricism

Steve, I can believe.

It’s easy to believe in religion (metaphysical)

It’s easy to believe in empiricism

Class Activity: Confidence

OVERCONFIDENCE

90% confidence

Answer LOW HIGH

Martin Luther King’s age at death ______ ______ ______

Length of Nile River (miles) ______ ______ ______

# of books in Old Testament ______ ______ ______

Diameter of the moon ______ ______ ______

Weight of an empty Boeing 747 ______ ______ ______

Year Mozart was born ______ ______ ______

Gestation period of Asian elephant (days) ______ ______ ______

Deepest known point in ocean (feet) ______ ______ ______

Height of Mt. Everest (feet) ______ ______ ______

Year 1st US college became coed ______ ______ ______

39 years

4187 miles

39 books

2160 miles

390,000 lbs

1756

645 days

36,198 feet

29,028 feet

1833

Overconfidence

Tendency to be more confident than correct

Tendency to overestimate the accuracy of one’s beliefs and judgments

Belief Bias

Premise 1: Some ruthless men deserve a violent death

Premise 2: Osama bin Laden was a ruthless man.

Conclusion: (choose one)

A. Osama bin Laden deserved a violent death

B. Osama bin Laden did not deserve a violent death

C. Neither of these conclusions seems to follow logically.

Problems with Thinking

Confirmation Bias

Tendency to search for information that confirms one’s beliefs

Representativeness Heuristic

Judging the likelihood of things in terms of how well they seem to represent, or match, particular prototypes

Availability Heuristic

Estimating the likelihood of events based on their availability in memory

Belief Perseverance

Clinging to one’s initial conceptions after the basis on which they were formed has been discredited

Ecological Fallacy – Stereo Types

Inferences about individuals based on group statistics

Science is a Logical Argument/Critical Thinking

Science – assumptions, attitudes, and procedures

for developing and testing ideas about reality

that are adhered to by a professional community (a network of men and women who enforce scientific fidelity) with a shared ethos, or philosophy:

attempt to describe, predict, explain, or engineer empirical (metaphysical??) conditions, events, and behaviors

use systematic procedures

search for causes

suppose to be professionally objective

assume that conclusions are tentative

operate within paradigms

Science’s logical argument involves…..

Scientists as individuals and a community strive to:

eliminate bias by making valid observations and using reliable measuring instruments

demonstrate internal validity (observe what we say we observed, measure what we say we measure)

demonstrate external validity (when/where this observation can/will be observed)

Thinking and Reason

Use Concepts

Mental grouping of similar objects, events, ideas, or people

i.e. chair, ball, anger, etc.

Develop Prototypes

Mental image or best example of a category/concept

Matching new items to the prototype provides a quick and easy method for including items in a concept

Variables / Attributes

A variable is a concept that has multiple attributes.

Weather: 20 degrees, 40 degrees, wet, sunny, etc.

People: female, male, tall, short, etc.

Aggregates / Frequencies

Aggregates are groups of subjects.

Subjects are objects that exhibit variable attributes.

Frequencies are the number of observations of a specific attribute.

Variables and Frequencies.

Human

Sex

Male

Human Sex

Male

Human Sex

Male

Female

Aggregate

Frequencies

Male = 4

Female = 8

Relationships

Attributes of one variable correspond with attributes in another.

Restroom Signs/Observed Gender Entered

	Men	Women
	22	0
	0	18

Causal Relationships

Does going to the restroom together cause pregnancy?

Restroom company/Gender and Pregnancy Observed

	Pregnant	Not Pregnant
	Men 0 Women 14	Men 11 Women 4
	Men 0 Women 0	Men 15 Women 18

Causality

A causes B if:

a relationship between A and B exists

A comes before B (causal order)

*B does not occur without A (causal necessity)

C did not cause B (rule out alternative cause)

*The nature of concepts is tricky.

Can their be more than one cause for suicide? Depression? Divorce? Etc.

Purposes of Research

Exploration

Description

Explanation

Application

Reasoning

Inductive

Deductive

Qualitative vs Quantitative

Qualitative

Quantitative

image1.jpeg

image2.jpeg

image3.png

image4.png

image5.png

image6.png

image7.png

ScientificMethods.pptx

Lesson Objectives

Appreciate:

Biases and Overconfidence

Science’s Goals

Major concepts of research

Concepts

Variables

Attributes

Aggregates

Frequencies

Relationship

Causality

Purpose of Research

Reasoning

Qualitative vs Quantitative

Review

I guess I wouldn’t believe in anything if it wasn’t for my

lucky, astrology mood watch.

-- Steve Martin

Steve, I would have to agree. It’s just hard to believe in.

It’s hard to believe in religion (metaphysical)

It’s hard to believe in empiricism

Steve, I can believe.

It’s easy to believe in religion (metaphysical)

It’s easy to believe in empiricism

Class Activity: Confidence

OVERCONFIDENCE

90% confidence

Answer LOW HIGH

Martin Luther King’s age at death ______ ______ ______

Length of Nile River (miles) ______ ______ ______

# of books in Old Testament ______ ______ ______

Diameter of the moon ______ ______ ______

Weight of an empty Boeing 747 ______ ______ ______

Year Mozart was born ______ ______ ______

Gestation period of Asian elephant (days) ______ ______ ______

Deepest known point in ocean (feet) ______ ______ ______

Height of Mt. Everest (feet) ______ ______ ______

Year 1st US college became coed ______ ______ ______

39 years

4187 miles

39 books

2160 miles

390,000 lbs

1756

645 days

36,198 feet

29,028 feet

1833

Overconfidence

Tendency to be more confident than correct

Tendency to overestimate the accuracy of one’s beliefs and judgments

Belief Bias

Premise 1: Some ruthless men deserve a violent death

Premise 2: Osama bin Laden was a ruthless man.

Conclusion: (choose one)

A. Osama bin Laden deserved a violent death

B. Osama bin Laden did not deserve a violent death

C. Neither of these conclusions seems to follow logically.

Problems with Thinking

Confirmation Bias

Tendency to search for information that confirms one’s beliefs

Representativeness Heuristic

Judging the likelihood of things in terms of how well they seem to represent, or match, particular prototypes

Availability Heuristic

Estimating the likelihood of events based on their availability in memory

Belief Perseverance

Clinging to one’s initial conceptions after the basis on which they were formed has been discredited

Ecological Fallacy – Stereo Types

Inferences about individuals based on group statistics

Science is a Logical Argument/Critical Thinking

Science – assumptions, attitudes, and procedures

for developing and testing ideas about reality

that are adhered to by a professional community (a network of men and women who enforce scientific fidelity) with a shared ethos, or philosophy:

attempt to describe, predict, explain, or engineer empirical (metaphysical??) conditions, events, and behaviors

use systematic procedures

search for causes

suppose to be professionally objective

assume that conclusions are tentative

operate within paradigms

Science’s logical argument involves…..

Scientists as individuals and a community strive to:

eliminate bias by making valid observations and using reliable measuring instruments

demonstrate internal validity (observe what we say we observed, measure what we say we measure)

demonstrate external validity (when/where this observation can/will be observed)

Thinking and Reason

Use Concepts

Mental grouping of similar objects, events, ideas, or people

i.e. chair, ball, anger, etc.

Develop Prototypes

Mental image or best example of a category/concept

Matching new items to the prototype provides a quick and easy method for including items in a concept

Variables / Attributes

A variable is a concept that has multiple attributes.

Weather: 20 degrees, 40 degrees, wet, sunny, etc.

People: female, male, tall, short, etc.

Aggregates / Frequencies

Aggregates are groups of subjects.

Subjects are objects that exhibit variable attributes.

Frequencies are the number of observations of a specific attribute.

Variables and Frequencies.

Human

Sex

Male

Human Sex

Male

Human Sex

Male

Female

Aggregate

Frequencies

Male = 4

Female = 8

Relationships

Attributes of one variable correspond with attributes in another.

Restroom Signs/Observed Gender Entered

	Men	Women
	22	0
	0	18

Causal Relationships

Does going to the restroom together cause pregnancy?

Restroom company/Gender and Pregnancy Observed

	Pregnant	Not Pregnant
	Men 0 Women 14	Men 11 Women 4
	Men 0 Women 0	Men 15 Women 18

Causality

A causes B if:

a relationship between A and B exists

A comes before B (causal order)

*B does not occur without A (causal necessity)

C did not cause B (rule out alternative cause)

*The nature of concepts is tricky.

Can their be more than one cause for suicide? Depression? Divorce? Etc.

Purposes of Research

Exploration

Description

Explanation

Application

Reasoning

Inductive

Deductive

Qualitative vs Quantitative

Qualitative

Quantitative

image1.jpeg

image2.jpeg

image3.png

image4.png

image5.png

image6.png

image7.png

Worksheet1.docx

Worksheet 1 Reality and Science

1. Describe 5 ways in which scientific efforts is a good way to accurately understand reality.

2. Describe 3 things about science that makes it untrustworthy regarding accuracy about reality.

3. Define and explain why each of the following often make humans wrong about reality and their predictions. Describe what it is about science described above that minimizes these weaknesses.

a. Overconfidence

b. Belief Bias

c. Confirmation Bias

d. Representative Heuristic

e. Availability Heuristic

f. Belief Perseverance

g. Ecological Fallacy

5. Describe how a “Quantitative” approach to trying to understand reality has different challenges of being accurate about reality than a “qualitative” approach.

Below is depiction of an aggregate of humans. The variable “sex” with the attributes of “male” or “female” and the frequencies of male and female.

image3.png

image4.png

image1.png

image5.png

image2.png

ScientificMethods.pptx

Lesson Objectives

Appreciate:

Biases and Overconfidence

Science’s Goals

Major concepts of research

Concepts

Variables

Attributes

Aggregates

Frequencies

Relationship

Causality

Purpose of Research

Reasoning

Qualitative vs Quantitative

Review

I guess I wouldn’t believe in anything if it wasn’t for my

lucky, astrology mood watch.

-- Steve Martin

Steve, I would have to agree. It’s just hard to believe in.

It’s hard to believe in religion (metaphysical)

It’s hard to believe in empiricism

Steve, I can believe.

It’s easy to believe in religion (metaphysical)

It’s easy to believe in empiricism

Class Activity: Confidence

OVERCONFIDENCE

90% confidence

Answer LOW HIGH

Martin Luther King’s age at death ______ ______ ______

Length of Nile River (miles) ______ ______ ______

# of books in Old Testament ______ ______ ______

Diameter of the moon ______ ______ ______

Weight of an empty Boeing 747 ______ ______ ______

Year Mozart was born ______ ______ ______

Gestation period of Asian elephant (days) ______ ______ ______

Deepest known point in ocean (feet) ______ ______ ______

Height of Mt. Everest (feet) ______ ______ ______

Year 1st US college became coed ______ ______ ______

39 years

4187 miles

39 books

2160 miles

390,000 lbs

1756

645 days

36,198 feet

29,028 feet

1833

Overconfidence

Tendency to be more confident than correct

Tendency to overestimate the accuracy of one’s beliefs and judgments

Belief Bias

Premise 1: Some ruthless men deserve a violent death

Premise 2: Osama bin Laden was a ruthless man.

Conclusion: (choose one)

A. Osama bin Laden deserved a violent death

B. Osama bin Laden did not deserve a violent death

C. Neither of these conclusions seems to follow logically.

Problems with Thinking

Confirmation Bias

Tendency to search for information that confirms one’s beliefs

Representativeness Heuristic

Judging the likelihood of things in terms of how well they seem to represent, or match, particular prototypes

Availability Heuristic

Estimating the likelihood of events based on their availability in memory

Belief Perseverance

Clinging to one’s initial conceptions after the basis on which they were formed has been discredited

Ecological Fallacy – Stereo Types

Inferences about individuals based on group statistics

Science is a Logical Argument/Critical Thinking

Science – assumptions, attitudes, and procedures

for developing and testing ideas about reality

that are adhered to by a professional community (a network of men and women who enforce scientific fidelity) with a shared ethos, or philosophy:

attempt to describe, predict, explain, or engineer empirical (metaphysical??) conditions, events, and behaviors

use systematic procedures

search for causes

suppose to be professionally objective

assume that conclusions are tentative

operate within paradigms

Science’s logical argument involves…..

Scientists as individuals and a community strive to:

eliminate bias by making valid observations and using reliable measuring instruments

demonstrate internal validity (observe what we say we observed, measure what we say we measure)

demonstrate external validity (when/where this observation can/will be observed)

Thinking and Reason

Use Concepts

Mental grouping of similar objects, events, ideas, or people

i.e. chair, ball, anger, etc.

Develop Prototypes

Mental image or best example of a category/concept

Matching new items to the prototype provides a quick and easy method for including items in a concept

Variables / Attributes

A variable is a concept that has multiple attributes.

Weather: 20 degrees, 40 degrees, wet, sunny, etc.

People: female, male, tall, short, etc.

Aggregates / Frequencies

Aggregates are groups of subjects.

Subjects are objects that exhibit variable attributes.

Frequencies are the number of observations of a specific attribute.

Variables and Frequencies.

Human

Sex

Male

Human Sex

Male

Human Sex

Male

Female

Aggregate

Frequencies

Male = 4

Female = 8

Relationships

Attributes of one variable correspond with attributes in another.

Restroom Signs/Observed Gender Entered

	Men	Women
	22	0
	0	18

Causal Relationships

Does going to the restroom together cause pregnancy?

Restroom company/Gender and Pregnancy Observed

	Pregnant	Not Pregnant
	Men 0 Women 14	Men 11 Women 4
	Men 0 Women 0	Men 15 Women 18

Causality

A causes B if:

a relationship between A and B exists

A comes before B (causal order)

*B does not occur without A (causal necessity)

C did not cause B (rule out alternative cause)

*The nature of concepts is tricky.

Can their be more than one cause for suicide? Depression? Divorce? Etc.

Purposes of Research

Exploration

Description

Explanation

Application

Reasoning

Inductive

Deductive

Qualitative vs Quantitative

Qualitative

Quantitative

image1.jpeg

image2.jpeg

image3.png

image4.png

image5.png

image6.png

image7.png

Worksheet1.docx

Worksheet 1 Reality and Science

1. Describe 5 ways in which scientific efforts is a good way to accurately understand reality.

2. Describe 3 things about science that makes it untrustworthy regarding accuracy about reality.

3. Define and explain why each of the following often make humans wrong about reality and their predictions. Describe what it is about science described above that minimizes these weaknesses.

a. Overconfidence

b. Belief Bias

c. Confirmation Bias

d. Representative Heuristic

e. Availability Heuristic

f. Belief Perseverance

g. Ecological Fallacy

5. Describe how a “Quantitative” approach to trying to understand reality has different challenges of being accurate about reality than a “qualitative” approach.

Below is depiction of an aggregate of humans. The variable “sex” with the attributes of “male” or “female” and the frequencies of male and female.

image3.png

image4.png

image1.png

image5.png

image2.png

ScientificMethods.pptx

Lesson Objectives

Appreciate:

Biases and Overconfidence

Science’s Goals

Major concepts of research

Concepts

Variables

Attributes

Aggregates

Frequencies

Relationship

Causality

Purpose of Research

Reasoning

Qualitative vs Quantitative

Review

I guess I wouldn’t believe in anything if it wasn’t for my

lucky, astrology mood watch.

-- Steve Martin

Steve, I would have to agree. It’s just hard to believe in.

It’s hard to believe in religion (metaphysical)

It’s hard to believe in empiricism

Steve, I can believe.

It’s easy to believe in religion (metaphysical)

It’s easy to believe in empiricism

Class Activity: Confidence

OVERCONFIDENCE

90% confidence

Answer LOW HIGH

Martin Luther King’s age at death ______ ______ ______

Length of Nile River (miles) ______ ______ ______

# of books in Old Testament ______ ______ ______

Diameter of the moon ______ ______ ______

Weight of an empty Boeing 747 ______ ______ ______

Year Mozart was born ______ ______ ______

Gestation period of Asian elephant (days) ______ ______ ______

Deepest known point in ocean (feet) ______ ______ ______

Height of Mt. Everest (feet) ______ ______ ______

Year 1st US college became coed ______ ______ ______

39 years

4187 miles

39 books

2160 miles

390,000 lbs

1756

645 days

36,198 feet

29,028 feet

1833

Overconfidence

Tendency to be more confident than correct

Tendency to overestimate the accuracy of one’s beliefs and judgments

Belief Bias

Premise 1: Some ruthless men deserve a violent death

Premise 2: Osama bin Laden was a ruthless man.

Conclusion: (choose one)

A. Osama bin Laden deserved a violent death

B. Osama bin Laden did not deserve a violent death

C. Neither of these conclusions seems to follow logically.

Problems with Thinking

Confirmation Bias

Tendency to search for information that confirms one’s beliefs

Representativeness Heuristic

Judging the likelihood of things in terms of how well they seem to represent, or match, particular prototypes

Availability Heuristic

Estimating the likelihood of events based on their availability in memory

Belief Perseverance

Clinging to one’s initial conceptions after the basis on which they were formed has been discredited

Ecological Fallacy – Stereo Types

Inferences about individuals based on group statistics

Science is a Logical Argument/Critical Thinking

Science – assumptions, attitudes, and procedures

for developing and testing ideas about reality

that are adhered to by a professional community (a network of men and women who enforce scientific fidelity) with a shared ethos, or philosophy:

attempt to describe, predict, explain, or engineer empirical (metaphysical??) conditions, events, and behaviors

use systematic procedures

search for causes

suppose to be professionally objective

assume that conclusions are tentative

operate within paradigms

Science’s logical argument involves…..

Scientists as individuals and a community strive to:

eliminate bias by making valid observations and using reliable measuring instruments

demonstrate internal validity (observe what we say we observed, measure what we say we measure)

demonstrate external validity (when/where this observation can/will be observed)

Thinking and Reason

Use Concepts

Mental grouping of similar objects, events, ideas, or people

i.e. chair, ball, anger, etc.

Develop Prototypes

Mental image or best example of a category/concept

Matching new items to the prototype provides a quick and easy method for including items in a concept

Variables / Attributes

A variable is a concept that has multiple attributes.

Weather: 20 degrees, 40 degrees, wet, sunny, etc.

People: female, male, tall, short, etc.

Aggregates / Frequencies

Aggregates are groups of subjects.

Subjects are objects that exhibit variable attributes.

Frequencies are the number of observations of a specific attribute.

Variables and Frequencies.

Human

Sex

Male

Human Sex

Male

Human Sex

Male

Female

Aggregate

Frequencies

Male = 4

Female = 8

Relationships

Attributes of one variable correspond with attributes in another.

Restroom Signs/Observed Gender Entered

	Men	Women
	22	0
	0	18

Causal Relationships

Does going to the restroom together cause pregnancy?

Restroom company/Gender and Pregnancy Observed

	Pregnant	Not Pregnant
	Men 0 Women 14	Men 11 Women 4
	Men 0 Women 0	Men 15 Women 18

Causality

A causes B if:

a relationship between A and B exists

A comes before B (causal order)

*B does not occur without A (causal necessity)

C did not cause B (rule out alternative cause)

*The nature of concepts is tricky.

Can their be more than one cause for suicide? Depression? Divorce? Etc.

Purposes of Research

Exploration

Description

Explanation

Application

Reasoning

Inductive

Deductive

Qualitative vs Quantitative

Qualitative

Quantitative

image1.jpeg

image2.jpeg

image3.png

image4.png

image5.png

image6.png

image7.png

other Questions(10)