SCMT537

2

Anticipating the Threat: The Future Landscape of Cyber Crime and Global Cybersecurity

SCMT537

05/25/2025

Anticipating the Threat: The Future Landscape of Cyber Crime and Global Cybersecurity

Introduction

Cybercrime is now one of the biggest dangers affecting individuals, organizations, and nations due to the quick rise and use of digital technologies (Dumitrescu & Marica, 2019). Today, cyber-attacks can be ransomware, data breaches, or espionage by countries, and making them easier to find or punish is becoming very difficult. Much research already details current cyber threats, but there is still little clarity about how cyber crime might change in the future or which new problems could appear from advances in AI, quantum computing, and the IoT. While cybersecurity technology has progressed and nations have legislation, the wide extent and complicated nature of digital links still mean near-perfect protection is almost impossible. When defenses get stronger, why does cyber crime still become more severe and expensive? Moreover, how will upcoming technologies affect cyber threats and what methods exist for preventing them in advance.

New links among systems across the globe have heightened the danger of multiplying failures resulting from cyber incidents. An incident of cybersecurity in the energy or finance sector can now lead to problems in other sectors and nations (Konaszczuk, 2021). Since physical and digital infrastructure are now merging, thanks to smart technologies, it is essential for researchers to predict what threat scenarios may emerge. For this new reality, experts are using technology, policy, ethics and global teamwork to design robust cybersecurity systems.

Research Problem

The most serious problem is that cybercrime always moves forward faster than anyone can respond with new policies and better security. To anticipate cybercrime in the future, we should look back at its history and also try to predict how technical advances can be exploited by cybercriminals.

Research Question

What will the rise of artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and the Internet of Things mean for cybercrime in the coming decade and how can we defend against such future risks?

Hypothesis

If cyber criminals develop new methods based on future technology, threats will act more independently, spread easily, and be more personal which will need societies to look ahead with cybersecurity, supported by joint efforts around the globe.

Literature Review

1. Trends in Current Cyber Crime

Many researchers have found that the number of cyber crimes worldwide is rapidly increasing. In 2020, Hayes (2020) states that cyber crime cost businesses around the globe an estimated $6 trillion and the most frequently seen threats were ransomware and phishing. Due to the pandemic, many people and companies moved to remote work which opened up new risks for cyber criminals (Minnaar, 2020). As more people turned to digital tools for talking, banking and medical needs, risks increased a lot.

Some of the most common issues within the literature are attacks for financial gain, the rising popularity of cyber crime-as-a-service, and more state actors becoming involved. It is revealed from the 2023 Internet Crime Report of the FBI that critical infrastructure is facing more attacks, indicating that cyber skills are being used more often in geopolitics (Lemieux, 2024). APTs are increasing in number and can remain unnoticed for a long time which leads to serious harm both in the private and public areas.

In addition, there are now double extortion attacks, where attackers encrypt and also steal data before threatening to publish it. The chance of cryptojacking and identity theft has grown because billions of records are available online and it is now easier to use hidden financial systems (Dharmalingam & Dharmalingam, 2025). As cybercrime has advanced, people are now treating it as a business with services, buyers, and prices. Since people with little technical knowledge can now participate in cybercrime, there are many more and more advanced attacks happening around the world.

2. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Cyber Crime

AI is both a risk and a benefit in the field of cybersecurity. The advantage of automated security is that it detects dangerous events faster, though it also benefits criminals by providing them better tools. Andriu (2023) point out that AI is being applied to perfect the look of phishing emails, automate scanning for weaknesses and develop malware that can adapt to the environment in which it operates.

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) recently found that cyber attacks of the future will likely make heavy use of adversarial AI, in which AI systems are intentionally made to produce mistaken results. Cybersecurity architectures that rely on people are in danger because of autonomous attack systems (Madan, Banik, & Bein, 2019). AI-driven deepfake technology can also be used to replace voices and images in videos and audio which can lead to challenges when it comes to identifying people and relying on public services. If used by criminal actors such technology could influence opinions among the public, have people pay up, or cause issues within various organizations.

AI technology also allows tools to quickly go through a lot of information, discover weaknesses and attack many networks much faster than humans could (Zaman, et al., 2021). This leads to a stronger desire for AI-powered defense systems that identify and additionally predict, attacks in the present moment. A set of ethical guidelines, open development and teamwork across borders will help face these upcoming challenges.

3. The Internet of Things (IoT): A Growing Attack Surface

Smart equipment such as refrigerators and industrial sensors now pose an unmatched cybersecurity problem. Butun et al., (2019) point out that many IoT systems are vulnerable because they do not use enough encryption, authentication, or update processes, so attackers find them appealing. The Mirai botnet attack (2016) taught the world about the dangers of leaving IoT devices unprotected, triggering upheaval on the internet (Vatsyayan, Chakraborty, Rajarajan, & Fernandez, 2022).

According to research by Afaq et al. (2023), the increase in the number of connected devices globally to more than 30 billion will lead to a sharp rise in threat vectors. Since medical devices, autonomous cars, or smart city systems can hold vulnerabilities, attackers might trigger major accidents. Since there isn't much standardization in the IoT industry, with many manufacturers, it is even more difficult to ensure security. As a lot of devices come with default passwords or old firmware, they become easy to exploit. When different devices and networks use dissimilar security policies, it leads to lots of possible security risks. Dealing with these issues needs combined effort, better security from the start, and constant updates to the software to keep cyber attacks from reaching interconnected systems.

4. Quantum Computing and the Future of Encryption

Cybersecurity has a particular issue when dealing with quantum computing. Shor's algorithm is making it easier to break widely used forms of public key cryptography like RSA and ECC. Vasani et al., (2024) believes that if scalable quantum computers are built, the encryption used now could be easily broken and might expose many communication and data records kept for decades. As a result, national security, banking, healthcare, and most digital-reliant industries could be greatly affected.

At the same time, the literature studies quantum-resistant cryptographic systems, for instance, lattice-based cryptography. Joseph et al., (2022) state that post-quantum cryptography deserves priority, although almost all groups have not yet settled on when to move to new encryption standards. Many experts believe that, in the meantime, utilizing a system made from classical and quantum-safe cryptographic methods can allow the transition to flow smoothly for all users. Moreover, it will be important for member states to cooperate and create new rules, since all nations need support before facing the challenges of the post-quantum era. If the right measures are not taken, quantum computing might make many web users more exposed to cyber-attacks.

Since there is uncertainty about when quantum computing will develop, attackers now collect encrypted information to open and access it later when the technology progresses. As a result, data that must remain private in the future such as government secrets, medical histories, or information on inventions, becomes at increased risk. Recently, upgrading current computer software and hardware has been a major difficulty for businesses and government organizations (Attaran & Woods, 2019). Among them are upgrading old infrastructure, re-educating cybersecurity experts, and guaranteeing compatibility with systems elsewhere. To handle the exchange of new cryptography, countries and groups must think ahead, connect their legal systems, and work together for equitable progress in online security.

5. Gaps in the Literature and Future Research Directions

Although the literature does a good job of covering current and newly incoming cyber threats, several topics are still lacking. Most research on cybercrime does not focus on combining technology, law, and ethics. Few studies consider how AI and encryption connect with cyber policy. Also, most research focuses on what has happened or is happening now instead of on future threats. The authors argue in Smith & Lee (2023) that forecasting cyber threats can be improved by using AI and big data. With these models, it might be possible to stop cyber threats before they happen. In addition, there is little agreement worldwide on how cybersecurity should be managed. Though the Budapest Convention is in place, carrying out its rules is not the same across all countries. According to Deibert (2020), scholars want to secure international regulations on cyberattack capabilities and work together on defense measures.

References:

Afaq, S. A., Husain, M. S., Bello, A., & Sadia, H. (2023). A critical analysis of cyber threats and their global impact. In  Computational Intelligent Security in Wireless Communications (pp. 201-220). CRC Press.

Andriu, A. V. (2023). Adaptive phishing detection: Harnessing the power of Artificial Intelligence for enhanced email security.  Romanian Cyber Secur. J,  5(1), 3-9.

Attaran, M., & Woods, J. (2019). Cloud computing technology: improving small business performance using the Internet. Journal of Small Business & Entrepreneurship, 31(6), 495-519.

Butun, I., Österberg, P., & Song, H. (2019). Security of the Internet of Things: Vulnerabilities, attacks, and countermeasures.  IEEE Communications Surveys & Tutorials,  22(1), 616-644.

Dharmalingam, R., & Dharmalingam, V. (2025). Cyber Threats and Its Impact on Electronic Transactions. Securing the Digital Frontier: Threats and Advanced Techniques in Security and Forensics, 109-132.

Dumitrescu, M. S., & Marica, M. E. (2019). Cybercrime in Digital Era. New Trends in Sustainable Business and Consumption, 433.

Hayes, J. K. (2020). Cyber Security and Corporate Fraud. In  Corporate Fraud Exposed: A Comprehensive and Holistic Approach (pp. 279-298). Emerald Publishing Limited.

Joseph, D., Misoczki, R., Manzano, M., Tricot, J., Pinuaga, F.D., Lacombe, O., Leichenauer, S., Hidary, J., Venables, P. and Hansen, R. (2022). Transitioning organizations to post-quantum cryptography.  Nature,  605(7909), 237-243.

Konaszczuk, W. (2021). Cybersecurity threats in the sectors of oil, natural gas and electric power in the context of technological evolution. Studia Iuridica Lublinensia, 30(4), 333-351.

Lemieux, F. (2024). Cyber Intelligence. Intelligence and State Surveillance in Modern Societies: An International Perspective, 171-184.

Madan, B. B., Banik, M., & Bein, D. (2019). Securing unmanned autonomous systems from cyber threats. The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, 16(2), 119-136.

Minnaar, A. (2020). ‘Gone phishing’: the cynical and opportunistic exploitation of the Coronavirus pandemic by cybercriminals. Acta Criminologica: African Journal of Criminology & Victimology, 33(3), 28-53.

Vasani, V., Prateek, K., Amin, R., Maity, S., & Dwivedi, A. D. (2024). Embracing the quantum frontier: Investigating quantum communication, cryptography, applications and future directions.  Journal of Industrial Information Integration, 100594.

Vatsyayan, V., Chakraborty, A., Rajarajan, G., & Fernandez, A. L. (2022). A detailed investigation of popular attacks on cyber physical systems. Cyber Security Applications for Industry 4.0 , 1-42.

Zaman, S., Alhazmi, K., Aseeri, M. A., Ahmed, M. R., Khan, R. T., Kaiser, M. S., & Mahmud, M. (2021). Security threats and artificial intelligence based countermeasures for internet of things networks: a comprehensive survey. Ieee Access, 9, 94668-94690.

Research Paper

Instructions

This assignment is the culmination of your crafting of a research paper on a homeland security issue. Previously, you presented the first three sections of your paper. This week you add the final sections and present the full paper. Be sure to make any changes to your literature based on instructor feedback. 

The three main sections you should add to the paper for this submission are the Methodology and Research Strategy, Analysis and Findings, section and the Conclusions/Recommendations section.  

Methodology and Research Strategy: This section provides the reader with a description of how you carried out your qualitative research project, and the variables you identified and analyzed. It describes any special considerations and defines any limitations and terms specific to this project, if necessary. This section can be brief or more complicated, depending on the project, written in 1-2 pages.  

Analysis and Findings: are not the same as conclusions. In the analysis component of this section you identify how you analyzed the data. The second part is the finding you got from your analysis of the data. The findings are the facts that you developed, not your interpretation of the facts. That interpretation is conducted in the conclusions and recommendations section of the paper. Findings will come from the prior research you examined and your analysis of those prior findings to create new findings for your paper. While there may be some facts that are such that they will stand and translate to your paper, the intent is to create new knowledge, so you will normally analyze the data to create your own findings of what facts that data represents. This section should be at least 2-5 pages.  

Conclusions and Recommendations: is the section where you give your interpretation of the data. Here you tell the reader what the findings mean. Often the conclusions and recommendations sections will mirror the findings in construct as the researcher tells the reader what that researcher sees as the meaning of that data, their conclusions. Then, drawing on those conclusions, the researcher tells the reader what they believe needs to be done to solve/answer the research question. This section may include recognition of any needs for further research and then finishes with a traditional conclusion to the paper as a whole.  

Remember, your paper should seek to answer a question that helps to solve the research puzzle you identified. 

Technical Requirements

· Your paper must be at a minimum of 3-8 additional pages (in addition to your literature review) (the Title and Reference pages do not count towards the minimum limit).

· Scholarly and credible references should be used. A good rule of thumb is at least 2 scholarly sources per page of content.

· Type in Times New Roman, 12 point and double space.

· Students will follow the current APA Style as the sole citation and reference style used in written work submitted as part of coursework. 

· Points will be deducted for the use of Wikipedia or encyclopedic type sources. It is highly advised to utilize books, peer-reviewed journals, articles, archived documents, etc.

· All submissions will be graded using the assignment rubric.

2

Anticipating the Threat: The Future Landscape of Cyber Crime and Global Cybersecurity

SCMT537

05/25/2025

Anticipating the Threat: The Future Landscape of Cyber Crime and Global Cybersecurity

Introduction

Cybercrime is now one of the biggest dangers affecting individuals, organizations, and nations due to the quick rise and use of digital technologies (Dumitrescu & Marica, 2019). Today, cyber-attacks can be ransomware, data breaches, or espionage by countries, and making them easier to find or punish is becoming very difficult. Much research already details current cyber threats, but there is still little clarity about how cyber crime might change in the future or which new problems could appear from advances in AI, quantum computing, and the IoT. While cybersecurity technology has progressed and nations have legislation, the wide extent and complicated nature of digital links still mean near-perfect protection is almost impossible. When defenses get stronger, why does cyber crime still become more severe and expensive? Moreover, how will upcoming technologies affect cyber threats and what methods exist for preventing them in advance.

New links among systems across the globe have heightened the danger of multiplying failures resulting from cyber incidents. An incident of cybersecurity in the energy or finance sector can now lead to problems in other sectors and nations (Konaszczuk, 2021). Since physical and digital infrastructure are now merging, thanks to smart technologies, it is essential for researchers to predict what threat scenarios may emerge. For this new reality, experts are using technology, policy, ethics and global teamwork to design robust cybersecurity systems.

Research Problem

The most serious problem is that cybercrime always moves forward faster than anyone can respond with new policies and better security. To anticipate cybercrime in the future, we should look back at its history and also try to predict how technical advances can be exploited by cybercriminals.

Research Question

What will the rise of artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and the Internet of Things mean for cybercrime in the coming decade and how can we defend against such future risks?

Hypothesis

If cyber criminals develop new methods based on future technology, threats will act more independently, spread easily, and be more personal which will need societies to look ahead with cybersecurity, supported by joint efforts around the globe.

Literature Review

1. Trends in Current Cyber Crime

Many researchers have found that the number of cyber crimes worldwide is rapidly increasing. In 2020, Hayes (2020) states that cyber crime cost businesses around the globe an estimated $6 trillion and the most frequently seen threats were ransomware and phishing. Due to the pandemic, many people and companies moved to remote work which opened up new risks for cyber criminals (Minnaar, 2020). As more people turned to digital tools for talking, banking and medical needs, risks increased a lot.

Some of the most common issues within the literature are attacks for financial gain, the rising popularity of cyber crime-as-a-service, and more state actors becoming involved. It is revealed from the 2023 Internet Crime Report of the FBI that critical infrastructure is facing more attacks, indicating that cyber skills are being used more often in geopolitics (Lemieux, 2024). APTs are increasing in number and can remain unnoticed for a long time which leads to serious harm both in the private and public areas.

In addition, there are now double extortion attacks, where attackers encrypt and also steal data before threatening to publish it. The chance of cryptojacking and identity theft has grown because billions of records are available online and it is now easier to use hidden financial systems (Dharmalingam & Dharmalingam, 2025). As cybercrime has advanced, people are now treating it as a business with services, buyers, and prices. Since people with little technical knowledge can now participate in cybercrime, there are many more and more advanced attacks happening around the world.

2. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Cyber Crime

AI is both a risk and a benefit in the field of cybersecurity. The advantage of automated security is that it detects dangerous events faster, though it also benefits criminals by providing them better tools. Andriu (2023) point out that AI is being applied to perfect the look of phishing emails, automate scanning for weaknesses and develop malware that can adapt to the environment in which it operates.

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) recently found that cyber attacks of the future will likely make heavy use of adversarial AI, in which AI systems are intentionally made to produce mistaken results. Cybersecurity architectures that rely on people are in danger because of autonomous attack systems (Madan, Banik, & Bein, 2019). AI-driven deepfake technology can also be used to replace voices and images in videos and audio which can lead to challenges when it comes to identifying people and relying on public services. If used by criminal actors such technology could influence opinions among the public, have people pay up, or cause issues within various organizations.

AI technology also allows tools to quickly go through a lot of information, discover weaknesses and attack many networks much faster than humans could (Zaman, et al., 2021). This leads to a stronger desire for AI-powered defense systems that identify and additionally predict, attacks in the present moment. A set of ethical guidelines, open development and teamwork across borders will help face these upcoming challenges.

3. The Internet of Things (IoT): A Growing Attack Surface

Smart equipment such as refrigerators and industrial sensors now pose an unmatched cybersecurity problem. Butun et al., (2019) point out that many IoT systems are vulnerable because they do not use enough encryption, authentication, or update processes, so attackers find them appealing. The Mirai botnet attack (2016) taught the world about the dangers of leaving IoT devices unprotected, triggering upheaval on the internet (Vatsyayan, Chakraborty, Rajarajan, & Fernandez, 2022).

According to research by Afaq et al. (2023), the increase in the number of connected devices globally to more than 30 billion will lead to a sharp rise in threat vectors. Since medical devices, autonomous cars, or smart city systems can hold vulnerabilities, attackers might trigger major accidents. Since there isn't much standardization in the IoT industry, with many manufacturers, it is even more difficult to ensure security. As a lot of devices come with default passwords or old firmware, they become easy to exploit. When different devices and networks use dissimilar security policies, it leads to lots of possible security risks. Dealing with these issues needs combined effort, better security from the start, and constant updates to the software to keep cyber attacks from reaching interconnected systems.

4. Quantum Computing and the Future of Encryption

Cybersecurity has a particular issue when dealing with quantum computing. Shor's algorithm is making it easier to break widely used forms of public key cryptography like RSA and ECC. Vasani et al., (2024) believes that if scalable quantum computers are built, the encryption used now could be easily broken and might expose many communication and data records kept for decades. As a result, national security, banking, healthcare, and most digital-reliant industries could be greatly affected.

At the same time, the literature studies quantum-resistant cryptographic systems, for instance, lattice-based cryptography. Joseph et al., (2022) state that post-quantum cryptography deserves priority, although almost all groups have not yet settled on when to move to new encryption standards. Many experts believe that, in the meantime, utilizing a system made from classical and quantum-safe cryptographic methods can allow the transition to flow smoothly for all users. Moreover, it will be important for member states to cooperate and create new rules, since all nations need support before facing the challenges of the post-quantum era. If the right measures are not taken, quantum computing might make many web users more exposed to cyber-attacks.

Since there is uncertainty about when quantum computing will develop, attackers now collect encrypted information to open and access it later when the technology progresses. As a result, data that must remain private in the future such as government secrets, medical histories, or information on inventions, becomes at increased risk. Recently, upgrading current computer software and hardware has been a major difficulty for businesses and government organizations (Attaran & Woods, 2019). Among them are upgrading old infrastructure, re-educating cybersecurity experts, and guaranteeing compatibility with systems elsewhere. To handle the exchange of new cryptography, countries and groups must think ahead, connect their legal systems, and work together for equitable progress in online security.

5. Gaps in the Literature and Future Research Directions

Although the literature does a good job of covering current and newly incoming cyber threats, several topics are still lacking. Most research on cybercrime does not focus on combining technology, law, and ethics. Few studies consider how AI and encryption connect with cyber policy. Also, most research focuses on what has happened or is happening now instead of on future threats. The authors argue in Smith & Lee (2023) that forecasting cyber threats can be improved by using AI and big data. With these models, it might be possible to stop cyber threats before they happen. In addition, there is little agreement worldwide on how cybersecurity should be managed. Though the Budapest Convention is in place, carrying out its rules is not the same across all countries. According to Deibert (2020), scholars want to secure international regulations on cyberattack capabilities and work together on defense measures.

References:

Afaq, S. A., Husain, M. S., Bello, A., & Sadia, H. (2023). A critical analysis of cyber threats and their global impact. In  Computational Intelligent Security in Wireless Communications (pp. 201-220). CRC Press.

Andriu, A. V. (2023). Adaptive phishing detection: Harnessing the power of Artificial Intelligence for enhanced email security.  Romanian Cyber Secur. J,  5(1), 3-9.

Attaran, M., & Woods, J. (2019). Cloud computing technology: improving small business performance using the Internet. Journal of Small Business & Entrepreneurship, 31(6), 495-519.

Butun, I., Österberg, P., & Song, H. (2019). Security of the Internet of Things: Vulnerabilities, attacks, and countermeasures.  IEEE Communications Surveys & Tutorials,  22(1), 616-644.

Dharmalingam, R., & Dharmalingam, V. (2025). Cyber Threats and Its Impact on Electronic Transactions. Securing the Digital Frontier: Threats and Advanced Techniques in Security and Forensics, 109-132.

Dumitrescu, M. S., & Marica, M. E. (2019). Cybercrime in Digital Era. New Trends in Sustainable Business and Consumption, 433.

Hayes, J. K. (2020). Cyber Security and Corporate Fraud. In  Corporate Fraud Exposed: A Comprehensive and Holistic Approach (pp. 279-298). Emerald Publishing Limited.

Joseph, D., Misoczki, R., Manzano, M., Tricot, J., Pinuaga, F.D., Lacombe, O., Leichenauer, S., Hidary, J., Venables, P. and Hansen, R. (2022). Transitioning organizations to post-quantum cryptography.  Nature,  605(7909), 237-243.

Konaszczuk, W. (2021). Cybersecurity threats in the sectors of oil, natural gas and electric power in the context of technological evolution. Studia Iuridica Lublinensia, 30(4), 333-351.

Lemieux, F. (2024). Cyber Intelligence. Intelligence and State Surveillance in Modern Societies: An International Perspective, 171-184.

Madan, B. B., Banik, M., & Bein, D. (2019). Securing unmanned autonomous systems from cyber threats. The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, 16(2), 119-136.

Minnaar, A. (2020). ‘Gone phishing’: the cynical and opportunistic exploitation of the Coronavirus pandemic by cybercriminals. Acta Criminologica: African Journal of Criminology & Victimology, 33(3), 28-53.

Vasani, V., Prateek, K., Amin, R., Maity, S., & Dwivedi, A. D. (2024). Embracing the quantum frontier: Investigating quantum communication, cryptography, applications and future directions.  Journal of Industrial Information Integration, 100594.

Vatsyayan, V., Chakraborty, A., Rajarajan, G., & Fernandez, A. L. (2022). A detailed investigation of popular attacks on cyber physical systems. Cyber Security Applications for Industry 4.0 , 1-42.

Zaman, S., Alhazmi, K., Aseeri, M. A., Ahmed, M. R., Khan, R. T., Kaiser, M. S., & Mahmud, M. (2021). Security threats and artificial intelligence based countermeasures for internet of things networks: a comprehensive survey. Ieee Access, 9, 94668-94690.