project 1

Sharp,Misti

AEB3550 Project 1

SAMPLE REPORT: AN ANALYSIS OF US AVOCADO, KIWI, AND FIG PRODUCTION

FROM 1961 TO 2023

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Executive Summary **Please note that you cannot copy and paste any of my writing into your report. You should write your summary in your own words given your own data. I am only providing an example with the US data. Your data should be different although some of your data and observations may end up looking similar to my data.**

This report looks at data downloaded from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) related to US Agricultural production from 1961 to 2023. It is very reliable data constituting official figures from US agricultural reporting (USDA). Since we have a rich mix of qualitative and quantitative information in this dataset, this report utilizes line charts, histograms, numerical descriptive statistics, histograms, and pivot tables to summarize the data. Key findings include that the US has a large variety of agricultural production with a large range of scale, avocado production grew very quickly in the 1970s although it has since leveled off and lags both figs and kiwifruit in terms of yield. Nevertheless, it encompasses the lions share of production and area harvested compared to kiwifruit and figs.

Data cleaning Discuss in this section your cleaning process for each of your three datasets and information about the resulting three datasets (elements, variables, potential research questions, etc—i.e. answer questions posed in step 2)

This report takes a closer look at the following:

1. US agricultural production in 2023 with 90 agricultural products (n = 90) measured in metric tons (~2000 pounds).

2. Area harvested in hectares for avocados in the US from 1961 to 2023 (n = 63). 3. Fig, avocado, and kiwifruit production (tons), area harvested (hectares), and yield

(kilograms per hectare). For figs and avocados, this data is from 1961 to 2023 (n = 378), for kiwifruit, this data is from 1980 to 2023 (n = 132).

Next, describe whether the data are nominal, ordinal, interval or ratio and potential research questions that can be explored with this data.

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Agricultural Production in the US in 2023 (xsec analysis) The US produced everything from ginger (19 hectares) to corn (35 million hectares) in 2023. The US has millions of hectares of production for the following crops (from most to least) 1) corn 2) soybeans 3) wheat 4) cotton 5) sorghum 6) rice 7) barley. Exotic fruits and vegetables (requiring a more tropical climate only observed in Florida, California, and Texas) have much lower production estimates with some of these measures lacking official figures, relying instead of imputed values or estimated values.

The average production area for an agricultural product in the US is 1.1 million hectares; however, the median is much lower at only 34,176 hectares (Table 1). Indeed, the two largest production sectors (corn & soybeans) would be considered outliers with values exceeding three standard deviations above the mean (𝑧𝑧𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 = 6.42, 𝑧𝑧𝑠𝑠𝑐𝑐𝑠𝑠 = 6.11). The presence of these two very large outliers along with a large right skewness measure (skewness = 5.88) implies that the median would be the most appropriate measure of central tendency. The data is highly variable with a standard deviation of 5.2 million which is almost 5 times the size of the mean. The range is even more excessive at 35 million hectares. These statistics imply that agricultural production in the US is very diverse in terms of the share of agricultural land devoted to each product and it might not be meaningful to compare, for example, our top producing sectors to our lowest producing sectors.

Table 1: Descriptive Statistics for Agricultural Production in the US

Agricultural Production (ha)

Mean 1107432 Standard Error 555878.8 Median 34176 Mode 5989 Standard Deviation 5273529 Sample Variance 2.78E+13 Kurtosis 34.8176 Skewness 5.88703 Range 35010950 Minimum 0 Maximum 35010950 Sum 99668888 Count 90

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Area Harvested for Avocados in the US Given that agricultural production is so diverse, it is worth looking deeper at a particular product overtime. For this analysis, the area harvested for avocados is investigated overtime illustrating that even with you look at a particular product, there can be a great deal of variability over time (figure 1). It is clear that avocado production went from a nice product in the 1960s (around 10,000 hectares in production) to a highly sought-after product in the 1980s (peaking at 34,920 hectares in 1986. Since that time, production of avocados has generally been in decline in the US settling close to 20,000 hectares of production in 2023. Figure 2 confirms that there really is no “typical” level of harvest for the US with the highest category of production being between 24,054 and 27,689 hectares. The distribution appears to be bi-modal with two peak production levels and a few potential outliers (Figure 2). When considering what to expect going forward, I would say the latest figure (21,117 hectares) is probably the most relevant statistic for predicting the future values of avocado production.

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Figure 1: Area Harvested for Avocados in the US (ha) from 1961 to 2023

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Figure 2: Histogram for Avocado Area Harvested

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A Comparison of Fruit Tree Production: Avocados, Kiwis, and Figs The US produces a modest quantity of avocados, Kiwis and Figs totally 1.8 million hectares in production resulting in 13.1 million tons produced collectively (Table 2). Nevertheless, avocados make up the majority of production with over double the area harvested and production of figs and kiwis combined. However, the production of avocados is less productive than both figs and kiwis that generate more kilograms per hectare than avocados (409,662 kg/ha and 612,432 kg/ha compared to 404,709 kg/ha) since 1961. This makes sense as figs and kiwis are smaller fruits compared to avocados and likely have more fruit per tree. Some varieties of figs can even produce multiple crops in a given year although it still has only half the productivity rate of kiwi (see row percentage).

Table 2: Pivot Tables for Avocados, Figs, and Kiwis

Looking deeper at productivity, it is clear that productivity has been highly variable for all fruits over time (Figure 3). This makes sense given how fruit tree production is highly cyclical with some years being banner years and others barely garnering a handful per tree depending on weather and the biological growth function of the tree. Figs have been the most consistent, especially in recent years with just over 10,000 kg/ha in yield for the US. On the other hand, Kiwi production has been highly variant, even in recent years with peak productivity at 21,702 kg/ha in 2018. In spite of the increasing breadth of production for avocados observed in the previous section, yield has remained relatively consistent over time (again, with clear cycles) with productivity at around 5,535 kg/ha in 2023 being very near to productivity in 1961 (4,899 kg/ha).

Totals Avocados Figs Kiwi fruit Grand Total Area harvested (ha) 1453265 344290 85894 1883449 Production (t) 9437037.05 2564178 1188935 13190150 Yield (kg/ha) 404709.6 499662.9 612432 1516804 Grand Total 11295011.65 3408130 1887261 16590403

Row percent Avocados Figs Kiwi fruit Grand Total Area harvested (ha) 13% 10% 5% 11% Production (t) 84% 75% 63% 80% Yield (kg/ha) 4% 15% 32% 9% Grand Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Column percent Avocados Figs Kiwi fruit Grand Total Area harvested (ha) 77% 18% 5% 100% Production (t) 72% 19% 9% 100% Yield (kg/ha) 27% 33% 40% 100% Grand Total 68% 21% 11% 100%

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) Figure 3: Yield for Avocados, Figs, and Kiwi Fruit in the US

from 1961 to 2023

Yield - Avocados Yield - Figs Yield - Kiwi fruit