Posc data

SumaiyaPoliceVariableTables.docx

*Do not need to include the Frequency table, here just for you to see

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topic.pdf

Topic 2: Income Inequality and Violent Crime Rates Across U.S. States A. Topic Description The second issue that I might discuss is the connection between the rates of violent crimes and income inequality in U.S. states. The rate of crime is a very diverse phenomenon that can be quite debated by policymakers who tend to discuss the reasons for diversity (Ulmer et al., 2012). Others have argued that crime is reduced by stronger enforcement of laws or increased police expenditure, whereas others have argued that stronger socioeconomic drivers like poverty and inequality play a stronger role. Income inequality is the way in which income is distributed unevenly within a state, which is commonly gauged by the Gini coefficient (Wagner et al., 2025). Higher inequality can lead states to have more social tension, less trust, and economic frustrations that might be a source of an increase in crime. This subject can enable me to discuss structural economic explanations of crime and not simply the policing strategies. B. Research Question What factors explain variation in violent crime rates across U.S. states? C. Why This is a Good Question This is a good research question since it tackles a significant public policy question, and it has more than one way of explanation. Crime is a very controversial political subject, and the causes of crime offer an implication on budgeting, social programs, and law enforcement policy. I am intrigued by this subject due to its linking of the economic disparity and the social security that often takes the center stage in political debates. This question is relevant, as crime influences the social stability of the community, its economic development, and the quality of life in general. This study can contribute to the wider discussion of the problem of whether social welfare policies or policing strategies are more effective in reducing crime by answering the research question of whether income inequality contributes to violent crime rates. D. Variables Dependent Variable: Violent crime rate: the rate of reported violent crimes per 100,000 persons in the respective state. Independent Variable 1: Income inequality (Gini coefficient), which is the measure of the unfairness of income distribution within the state. Independent Variable 2: Poverty rate, which is a measure of the percentage of people who live below the federal poverty line.

Independent Variable 3: Police spending per capita, which is the measurement of the amount of money each state spends on law enforcement if this is in comparison with the population. E. Hypothesis I hypothesize that the more income inequality there is in the state, the more violent crimes there are in it. The independent variable in this hypothesis is income inequality, and the dependent variable is the violent crime rate. The causal process of this argument is that the inequality may contribute to the rise of relative deprivation and decrease social cohesion (Zhuang et al., 2025). When people feel that there are huge economic divergences between them and others, it can lead to frustration and resentment, and low confidence in institutions. These are conditions that may lead to criminal behavior or social instability. Police expenditure might prevent certain crime although structural inequality might be the source of some social strains that lead to increased rates of violent crime.

StateDataS26Definitions.docx

Population Density: number of people per square mile, 2024 [Estimated] from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey Data

% Population Change (2020 to 2024), 2024 [Estimated] from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey Data

% Educational Attainment | Bachelor's degree, 2024 [Estimated]: percent of residents aged 25 and older with a Bachelor’s degree or more in education, from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey Data

% Age | 65 years and over, 2024 [Estimated] from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey Data

% Race | White alone, 2024 [Estimated] from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey Data

% Race | Black or African American alone, 2024 [Estimated] from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey Data

% Hispanic or Latino | Hispanic or Latino, 2024 [Estimated] from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey Data

Racial Segregation: Black/White residential segregation: “Index of dissimilarity where higher values indicate greater residential segregation, 2019-2023.” “The residential segregation index ranges from 0 (complete integration) to 100 (complete segregation). The index score can be interpreted as the percentage of either Black or White residents that would have to move to different geographic areas in order to produce a distribution that matches that of the larger area.” From HDPulse: An Ecosystem of Minority Health and Health Disparities Resources. National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities. Available from https://hdpulse.nimhd.nih.gov Additional details on measurement under “Methods” here: https://www.countyhealthrankings.org/health-data/community-conditions/social-and-economic-factors/safety-and-social-support/residential-segregation-blackwhite?year=2025

Median Household Income, 2024 [Estimated] from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey Data

% Poverty Status by Age | In Poverty, 2024 [Estimated] from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey Data

Unemployment Rate, 2020: average annual unemployment for 2020. From the Bureau of Labor statistics: https://www.bls.gov/lau/lastrk20.htm

wealth inequality measured by GINI coefficient based on wealth distribution (0-1 0: perfect equality 1: perfect inequality)

Homeless people per 10,000: Homeless rate based on number of homeless per 10,000 people in a state in 2024. Data compiled by USAFacts (report here: https://usafacts.org/articles/which-states-have-the-highest-and-lowest-rates-of-homelessness/) based on data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Annual Homelessness Assessment Report: https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/ahar/2024-ahar-part-1-pit-estimates-of-homelessness-in-the-us.html

Status of Abortion: Rating of abortion law, with lower values indicating more restrictive laws. Codes: 1. Abortion banned (12 states), 2. Gestational limit between 6 and 12 weeks LMP (6 states), 3. Gestational limit between 18 and 22 weeks LMP (4 states), 4. Gestational limit at or near viability (19 states), 5. No gestational limits (9 states & DC). Data from KFF, updated September 2025. https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/abortion-in-the-u-s-dashboard/ More details here: https://www.kff.org/state-health-policy-data/state-indicator/gestational-limit-abortions/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D

Strength of Gun Laws: Rating on a 100 point scale, based on the gun policies from each state in 2025. Compiled by Everytown for Gun Safety. More information on the measurement here: https://everytownresearch.org/rankings/methodology/

% Health Insurance Coverage | % With health insurance coverage, 2024 [Estimated] from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey Data

Life Expectancy, 2022. Mean life expectancy in each state as of 2022. Data collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. More information at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data-visualization/state-life-expectancy/2022.htm?2022=2022&Total=Total#ref

Medicaid Expansion, 2025: 0 if state has not implemented Medicaid Expansion, 1 if the state has expanded Medicaid. Data from the Kaiser Family Foundation at https://www.kff.org/medicaid/status-of-state-medicaid-expansion-decisions/

School funding: amount of money spent per student (2023), from the US Census Bureau Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2023/econ/school-finances/secondary-education-finance.html

Title 1 Spending, 2021: Federal spending through Title 1, per student in the state. Data compiled by the National Center for Education Statistics. See details here: https://nces.ed.gov/ccd/tables/NPEFS_FinanceTable8_FY21_1a.asp

PoliceSpend: Police Spending per capita, 2021. Total state and local spending for police per capita. Data from the US Census, calculated and provided in a Data Table from the Tax Policy Center, from the Report here: https://taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/state-and-local-general-expenditures-capita. More information here: https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/cross-center-initiatives/state-and-local-finance-initiative/state-and-local-backgrounders/criminal-justice-police-corrections-courts-expenditures

% Democratic Votes in Presidential Election Nationwide, 2020, Data collected by OpenElections from state bodies

% Republican Votes in Presidential Election Nationwide, 2020 Data collected by OpenElections from state bodies

LegRepub: Proportion of state legislators who are Republicans. Calculated as the number of Republicans divided by the total number of legislators. Data from the NCSL here: https://www.ncsl.org/about-state-legislatures/state-partisan-composition

LegDem: Proportion of state legislators who are Democrats. Calculated as the number of Democrats divided by the total number of legislators. Data from the NCSL here: https://www.ncsl.org/about-state-legislatures/state-partisan-composition

% Place of Birth | Foreign born, 2024 [Estimated] from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey Data

Average Violent Crime Rate (per 100,000), 2020, from US Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics

Average Property Crime Rate (per 100,000), 2020, from US Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics

Drug Overdose Mortality: The mortality rate is the number of deaths by overdose per 100,000 total population in 2023. Mortality rates are age-adjusted to account for differences in age distribution and population size between different populations. The CDC WONDER Online Database is the source of the 2023 National Vital Statistics System death data featured in Stats of the States. Data from https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/state-stats/deaths/drug-overdose.html

Drug Treatment Rate: Received Substance Use Treatment in Past Year Among Individuals Aged 12 or Older, by State: 2022-2023. Data from The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) based on the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). Data available here: https://datatools.samhsa.gov/saes/state

Recidivism Rate: 3-year reincarceration rate by state. Based on most recent date available, which varies by state. Data from The Council of State Governments Justice Center Report from 2024. Methodological information available here: https://csgjusticecenter.org/publications/50-states-1-goal/ (see report pg. 7-8 for table and methodology notes)

Restorative Justice Policy: Number of restorative justice policies passed in the state. 0=none; 1=low (1-2 statutes); 2=moderate (3-7 statutes); 3=high (9+ statutes). Data collected by Shannon Sliva. More information here: https://socialwork.du.edu/content/restorative-justice-laws#legislativedirectory. Cite as: Sliva, S. M. (2019). Restorative justice legislative directory [dataset].

Tax Rates: Top Marginal Income Tax Rate, from the Tax Foundation https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/state-income-tax-rates/

Cost of Living Variables: Values are the percentage of the national average value in that quarter. Similarly, each area’s overall cost of living is shown in the Composite Index as a percentage of the overall average cost across all areas. For example, a value of 100 means that state is at the national average for costs in that variable, while a 124 means the state’s costs are 124% of the national average, or 24% higher than the average. Cost of living index published by the Council for Community and Economic Research (C2ER). Methodology available here: https://www.coli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/12/2018-COLI-Manual.pdf