Math 120 due Thursday

Conditional Probability:

What affect does a condition have on the probability?  Let's compare and find out.

Example:   Let's look at a standard deck of 52 playing cards.

No replacement:  What is the probability of getting 2 kings assuming that the first one is not replaced?  (Note:  There are 4 kings in a deck of cards.  And a deck of cards has 52 cards.)

Answer:  4/52 * 3/51 = 1/13*1/17= 1/221

Replacement:  What is the probability of getting 2 kings assuming that the first one is replaced?

Answer:  4/52 * 4/52 = 1/13 * 1/13 = 1/169

What difference does it make?  Which gives the higher probability? 

Initial Post:  Make up a similar example to the above problem using (a) with replacement and (b) without replacement. You may use playing cards, or a similar scenario, however be sure that you can represent both with and without replacement.  Flipping a coin 10 times is not appropriate because it only represents the "without replacement" condition. Do not solve your own problem - that will be done by your classmates.